A recent posting in NatureBriefings gives us some idea just how tough the Sars-CoV-2 virus is going to be. We post the link below, and urge you to take a little time to read it, whether as a citizen, taxpayer, family member, or as befits a reader of LSS, a good old fashioned rationalist who is curious about the world around them. We will not spoil it for you, but note these telling points as you read
This virus has an array of adaptations which make it more lethal than previous coronaviruses which we have encountered
It attacks human cells at multiple points, unlike previous corona viruses
It has a dangerous mutation mechanism called recombination
There is also a very clear discussion of the origins and evolution of this virus.
Ralph Vaughn Williams (1872-1958) was a formidable composer of symphonies, orchestral pieces. ballets and songs. General readers will best recall his Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis and Greensleeves; fans, his Lark Ascending and songs such as Silent Noon. Coming from a well- to- do and high-minded family, his life and ethos are somehow typical of that mid-century, BBC -and- Rations Britain which fought the second world war and went on to create things like the NHS, Welfare State and jet engines.
In 1941 that war was going very badly indeed. Having scraped through the Fall of France and the Battle of Britain, convoy losses were mounting. More worryingly for insiders, the last of Britain’s gold reserves were about to be gobbled up by the United States. in return for some distinctly vintage destroyers. It was the moment at which Britain had finally stepped down from its status as an independent power. Yet it still fought on for its democracy, its only important ally being Canada.
Hoping to out- propaganda Goebbels in the then neutral United States, the government commissioned filmmakers Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger to make a wartime action film with some of Britain’s then leading stars, including Laurence Olivier and Leslie Howard. It concerns the adventures of a U -Boat crew trying to flee across Canada to the United States, the people they meet, and their ideas. It was a successful defence of the ideals of democracy free speech and tolerance, as opposed to falling under the rule of a single all powerful dictator. That film was 49th Parallel -and it can still be watched today.
Asanother of the Best Of British, Vaughn Williams was asked to score the film, and succeeds triumphantly. The phrasing and orchestration capture his style perfectly; newcomers will find no better introduction to his works. The version I link below is the one for original film titles, with Muir Mathieson and the London Symphony Orchestra. Modern conductors are inclined to take it faster. Listen to what audiences of the time would have recalled on VE Day!
We are indebted to Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for bringing our attention to an article published in CNN news by Harry Enten (How Trump has broken the polls 4 May 2020)*
Enten draws an important distinction between what people want to happen, and what they believe will happen. Example: when you tell a pollster “I will vote for Biden”, you want Biden to win. When you tell the same pollster in the next question “I think Trump will win”, that is your belief about what will happen. Unless you have changed your mind.
Enten points out that between 1988 and 2012, voters’ predictions of who they believed would win were a more powerful predictor of electoral success than voters’ declared intentions (“I will vote for Dole,Romney, Dukakis…etc”) However he points out that in recent times this pattern has broken. In 2018, voters called the US House race for the Republicans, but the Democrats won it-as the opinion polls had been correctly predicting.
So what is happening? We at LSS have always been fascinated by the gap between when people say what they think you want to hear, and their true intentions. Especially when these intentions are not certain, and they may be havering between choices that they would really rather not make. As in quantum mechanics, the very act of measuring the system changes it. This may explain odd election results such as that of Britain in 1992, Readers may recall that after large poll leads, Labour was soundly beaten, a fact attributed to “shy Tories“, who told the pollsters one thing, then did another.
Yet we believe this explanation is at once too facile, and misses an opportunity to delve deeper into a fascinating subject-Games Theory. The observation that as one member of a group changes its behaviour, other members react, in turn change theirs is well known. A classic example is the game of Poker, played by some very intelligent people, where the change in tactics by one player will be mirrored by all the others around the table. Michael Karnjanaprakorn posts an interesting guide to poker decision pathways in his beginner’s guide to game theory, which we have linked below.*
Games theory attempts to put mathematical models onto complex systems where the actions of every player modify the actions of all the others. The pioneering work was started by John van Neuman and Oskar Morgenstern in 1944. It is widely applied in biology, information and economics. In our present context it would attempt to answer the fiendish intricacies of a situation where voters declare for Biden, making Trump supporters try harder, leading Biden voters to fear they have caused a Trump win, so they react by…… etc etc ad nauseam)
Before we go mad, or lose ourselves in a whole day in games theory (see excellent Wiki article below) it is worth remembering two things. Firstly, most voters’ attachments are deeply formed, and they will not change their minds. Most elections are decided by a relative handful of swing voters in a few constituencies (we think that’s Districts in the US). Secondly, all attempts to apply over elaborate theories to human behaviour have so far failed. It was always the Communist boast that Marxist analysis was so perfect that the victory of the proletariat was inevitable. So you had better get on the winning side, or look out. Obviously the more people who did that, the more chance there was that the Communists would win.
“Never forget that war is about destroying things and killing people.” So said Squadron Leader Teddy Haslam to the historian Peter Hennessy in 1978.* It is right to celebrate the downfall of one particularly odious dictator. But there were many more; and more no doubt to come.
The experience of war has been depicted so many times in films books, and comic strips, that it has become hard for us who have never experienced a war to know what it is like. This week, many will be selecting their favourite World War Two movie (why does that make us feel ever so slightly uncomfortable?) And so, for that alone , we will at least nominate one, by a master director. And we will try to be as brief as possible. I hereby nominate Cross Of Iron (1977) Director; Sam Peckinpah
Wars start because one side gambles that it can win. if you want to see the reasons why Hitler gambled, and how he lost, you can do worse than look at the credit titles of this film, which are all taken from Nazi newsreels of the time, that slowly merge into the action , which takes place during the German retreat in Russia in the autumn of 1943. Wars are hell, not only because of the killing and bad food, but also because they are fought by people. Which means that all the petty rivalries, jealousies and hatreds of office politics are simply transferred to the battlefield. You can never escape your adversaries whether they are the Other Side or your own Commanding Officer. And boy is Captain Stransky ( Maximillian Schell) a difficult boss! Aside from being backstabbing, authoritarian, homophobic, vicious and mean, he can attempt the same attempts at faux charm as a moray eel gently welcoming a school of angel fish into its lair for lunch. You will have seen the type. The only time that his rival, Sergeant Steiner (James Coburn) can really get out on his own is when Stransky betrays his own men, leaving them far behind enemy lines. Steiner has his own ideas about 360 degree performance appraisals, but we will not spoil the ending. Which, instead of being a happy one, dissolves into an unhappy anti idyll of the horrors of war, and this famous quote from Bertold Brecht:
Don’t rejoice in his defeat, you men.
For though the world stood up and beat the bastard back
The bitch that bore him is in heat again
*Peter Hennessy Never Again Vintage 1994 The author now is of course Lord Hennessy
We are indebted to the noted educationalist and raconteur Mr David Foley, of Greenford, for the following story, which apparently is true.
One day a German physicist was driving home from his laboratory. Suddenly a Police motorcyclist came alongside and asked him to pull over. He did so, and wound down the window of his car* to ask what the problem was.
“You have a cat in the boot of your car, sir.” said the Police Officer.
” So, what is the problem?” he asked of the Officer.
“The problem is, that it is dead, sir.” said the Officer
“How do you know it’s dead? It was alright when I put it in there”
“Well, it is now, Professor Schrodinger”
*We know that this is a true story because of the authentic detail about winding the window down. If it had been faked later, the creator would have mentioned electric windows. Schrodinger lived long before electric windows
Before the Covid19 pandemic, many of us were worried about the possibility of at least one, perhaps more, superbacteria that were resistant to all known antibiotics. Far from going away, this possibility has actually been brought nearer. Because as patients who suffer from Covid19 develop secondary infections, we burn through our stock of effective antibiotics even more quickly. One of the prime aims of LSS is to get out of the way, and let people who know take over. One such group is Antibiotics Research UK, a charity, which was founded by Professor Colin Garner.
And so we link to their website. It is packed with information, including special features on coronaviruses. And it shows how you can help. If you have a family, or know someone who needs surgery, or has cancer, antibiotics protect all of them. Please consider them very seriously indeed
This week, we are starting a new feature called A Really Great Read. In which we invite you, the readers to tell us of, not a book you can do with, but one you can’t do without. Did it teach you things you didn’t know? Did it make you laugh/cry/fall asleep? Was it special at some time in your life? Tell us. A reader is like a traveller to a foreign land. Maybe the rest of need to know about what you discovered there.
Purely to start the ball rolling, we will begin with the following
A History of Medieval Europe by RHC Davis.Longman I came across this book at a time of great personal and economic difficulty. And I figured, well the Middle Ages were a time of great difficulties, if they can jolly well get through it, then so can I! And that has stood me in good stead ever since.Yet there are many, many books on the Middle Ages. What is so good about this one, I hear you ask.Well read for yourself. But as you do so answer these questions:
Is it the clarity of style?The structure of the Roman Empire was based on the unity of the Mediterranean, its people and its gods….It was first cracked by the claim of the Christian Church to be the guardian of absolute truth, because that claim made religious compromise impossible. It was further cracked by the determination of barbarian invaders to prefer the law of their ancestors to the law of reason, since that preference implied the superiority of loyalty to one’s race over loyalty to the civilised world. It was shattered when traders lost the freedom of the sea. When that happened , the greater part of Europe reverted to an agricultural economy in which there was no place for the cities which made men civilised.
In a nutshell, or what?
Is it: unites a whole range of themes effortlessly?
Dip into Chapter Nine and you will be thrown into a single weave: The great Medieval Trade Fairs, Byzantium, Arabs, Mongols, rising prosperity, shipping, cloth, and the origin of Banks. Enough for one Sunday morning? Well, there’s a lot more in the chapter. But it won’t half help you appreciate all those funny old buildings you see in places like Barcelona or Bruges.
Is it the amazing little fact?
Under the Islamic Empire there were banks with branches in the most important cities, and
It was possible to draw a cheque in Baghdad and cash it in Morocco
( explainer:there were no cash points in the ninth century; but they sure were doing alright for the time)
Is it: The vast sweep?
We start in a collapsing Roman Empire, move on to the barbarian Invasions ,the rise of the Church and the Franks, the Islamic Conquests and the ninth century simultaneous attacks of beastly hordes like Vikings, Hungarians and Saracens. We draw breath with an economic survey of Europe before the door opens to the more successful High Middle Ages, A time of new buildings and art, booming trade and military success. This was the age in which the foundations of modern science, commerce and Universities were firmly laid; only to be dampened somewhat by the arrival of the Mongols and the Black Death.
And finally A note of odd bravery. I leave it to Professor Davis-and you
(at the end of the thirteenth century)
The conservative might lament the passing of the old order, and try to reconstruct it, but the task was beyond them. The significant figures were the friars who set out to find the Mongols and explore the unknown, however fearsome it might be.
2 Happy Birthday the Hubble Telescope -what things you have shown us!
3 Happy Birthday The Spectator. Alright we don’t always agree with what they say, but sometimes you need a Right-wing voice like theirs to cut through certain self -righteous droners on the Left.
We really, really appreciate it when people take the trouble to read our musings.
And we really appreciate it when intelligent people work in teams to produce something intelligent and out of the ordinary. It certainly is unusual.
We at LSS have always admired precise thinking, where possible. And so it is important to distinguish between the disease COVID 19, which we think has been largely man-made, from the virus SARS-Cov-2, which isn’t. Let’s start with the latter, as there have been some amazing claims lately that it has been cooked up by nefarious scientists, at the behest of an evil government somewhere. Today we review an article by Peter Beaumont of the Guardian which deals with this.
Anyone who has even a passing acquaintance with courses in logic will know that one of the basic principles is that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. If I assert that there is a large green dinosaur swimming around a lake in Scotland , the burden is on me to produce some very, very strong evidence, as the proposition is contrary to all known geological and zoological experience. So, if you think the virus was engineered, answer these questions:
What are your proofs in virology, statistics, and epidemiology?
Where were these findings peer-reviewed?
SARS-Cov-2 bears overwhelming resemblances to many naturally occurring mammalian viruses. How do you explain that?
Why was the early Wuhan outbreak characterised as predominantly type B, with some type A?
Why was the early outbreak in Guandong predominantly type A, with only some type B?
Who might benefit from spreading disinformation about the virus? Why?
Spoiler alert: If you say “well I saw some top expert on the internet say x y and z”, that is not evidence, it’s for the pub.
The disease COVID 19, on the other hand, is almost entirely of our making. One may wax lyrically angry about the failures to control the escape of the virus. The appalling failures in public health which have led to widespread problems with smoking, obesity, cardiovascular and a range of other health problems which have left sufferers appallingly vulnerable. The atrocious atmospheric pollution in so many cities around the world. The exaltation of “growth”,- which seems to us a brash process of outing up huge concrete boxes where people spend 16 hours a day watching each other on computer screens-over things like education and health. And ignorant greedy people crashing into delicate ecosystems and robbing them of their precious plants and animals.
That’s how we created this disease.
The two articles below will give you more, and the BBC one in particular has many references.
Well, the cocktail we’re going to feature today is not the one in the picture above, but my wife thought that it was so good , it should go in anyway. So be it.
No, the one we’re going to cover tonight is the famous Daquiri. We shall start with a basic recipe, then suggest ways that serious aficionados can jazz it up according to their whim.
According to Wikipedia:
Daiquirí is also the name of a beach and an iron mine near Santiago de Cuba, and is a word of Taíno origin. The drink was supposedly invented by an American mining engineer, named Jennings Cox, who was in Cuba at the time of the Spanish–American War.
In other words, it’s a tropical cocktail. One to be sipped slowly under a palm thatch as the sun goes down after a long day on the beach. When you’re freshly showered and after sunned, and the staff are preparing the hotel for the evening meal. But-as you are not going to a hotel any time soon, here’s how to make one at home:
You will need: Cocktail shaker, cracked ice 2 fresh limes (and I mean that) 1 teaspoon sugar syrup, 3 measures white rum, e.g. Bacardi.
How to do……..IT! Crack your ice into smithereens and pop it into the shaker. Squeeze as much juice as you possible can from the limes, and pour in. Add the sugar syrup, then the white rum. Shake like it’s saving your life for 20 seconds then pour into a freshly chilled cocktail glass.
That’s like the one shown below, although Daquiri purists prefer one of those rounder shapes, of which we cannot find a free picture. But, as these are times of austerity, we are sure you won’t mind, cocktail pickers.
Variations
By using the juices of things like pineapple, coconut liqueur, apricot, strawberry, et al, you can make a pleasant variation to the base line model described above. Or.to add a little extra pzzazzz, things like Cointreau and grenadine. Daquiris are gregarious, democratic cocktails-they welcome everyone.
They are ideal for the zeitgeist of our time,with all these new buzzwords of the emergency like quarantini, locktail hour, and martini espresso.
As it is May Day, we will conclude by saying “Drinkers of the World, Unite!”
Learning, Science and Society 