Bond market worries: is America beginning to go the way of Spain and Britain?

Good morning gentle readers and welcome to another week in which we shall together learn even more about Science and Society. We’ll concentrate on the Society bit today, via economics. Because when two minds as acute as Katy Martin of the Financial Times[1] and Heather Stewart of the Guardian[2] coincide, we suspect that Society may be unravelling rather fast indeed.

WHAT KATY AND HEATHER SAY Both highlight disquieting instability in the US Bond Markets, particularly long term US Treasuries..Remember: this is the key metric by which foreigners judge a country’s future soundness and judgement, it filters out the short-term sound bites of spokespersons, and foxes the spins of friendly media. For US bonds, the outlook is becoming troubling. Yields are rising. And every intervention by Mr Bessent, however well intended, only seems to be making the markets ever more uneasy about US policy signals. What’s worse, all this worry seems to be bleeding into the dollar, the sheet anchor of the world financial system. We should be clear: Bessent is firefighting. The long‑term debt is not his creation, nor his remit. That belongs to Congress and the Presidency, and currently neither seems willing to confront the colossal $40 trillion IOU .Ok, financial ladies summarised :here follows our own gloss.

WHAT WE SAY Well, ever since the 1890s US Treasuries and the dollar have been the rock-solid anchors of the world economy. It’s like that when a superpower is at its peak. Everybody wants your currency: which in turn makes you strong because if you own the reserve currency, you can keep issuing in it long after everyone else runs out. Think the gold and silver backed currencies of Imperial Spain at its zenith, and the enormous role of Sterling and the Bank of England’s gold reserves before 1914. The first signs that these Empires were in decline was series of financial crises. Spain’s manifested themselves as a series of bankruptcies under Philip II and his successors. British readers will recall the interminable series of financial and balance of payments meltdowns -1914, 1931, 1940, 1947, 1956, 1967, 1976-are just the most outstanding as their own Empire declined from world hegemon to just another country in Europe.

Which begs the question: is America about to go the same way? Perhaps, but with some caveats. Firstly this is August and there are always some funny trades around in a quieter month. Secondly AI is competing mightily for funds in the capital markets, putting a squeeze on sovereign debt. And do not forget: this is still only a trend, America still has enormous economic potential. There is still time to elect a different Chief Executive and a different group of lawmakers to undo some of the damage of the last 20 months or so. But the warning from the ladies’ articles is clear: the margin for error is starting to narrow fast.

[1]Bossing the bond market around never works For once an FT article not behind a paywall, huzzah!

[2]Jumpy bond markets make it clear: Trump risks driving US into debt crisis | Heather Stewart | The Guardian

[3] Decline of Spain – Wikipedia

[4] British Empire – Wikipedia

#Scott bessent #US treasury bonds #financial crisis #dollar #imerial spain #imperial Britain #economics #finance #geopolitics

Roundup: Human fathers are best , mystery gold intrigues , climate mythologises, oppressed women suffer and sorry about the lack of 3D printers in this blog

Daddy knows best It seems that among mammals, human fathers are just about the best you can get. Is this our key evolutionary advantage, making the old narrative of the roaming, hyper‑masculinised killer‑ape into myth? Here’s El País

La evolución del padre: la mayoría de los mamíferos machos apenas se ocupan de sus crías | Ciencia | EL PAÍS

No peace for women The Taliban may have brought peace to Afghanistan; but not plenty yet, certainly not for the women of that ill-starred land. Here’s the Conversation on why and what next

https://theconversation.com/taliban-claims-five-years-of-peace-in-afghanistan-but-women-and-girls-face-oppression-289722?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Europes%20Ukraine%2

Green growth you can’t choose between climate and ecology says Larry Elliott for the Guardian, pointing out that changing climate is already inflicting serious economic damage

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/aug/19/reform-says-we-need-to-choose-between-climate-and-economy-its-wrong

Hold that gold The discovery of a huge hidden gold hoard in Belgium raises more questions than it answers. Who hid it there? Why? Will anyone come to claim it? El País has more:

En busca del dueño perdido: Bélgica investiga el origen de un millonario tesoro descubierto por un obrero | Internacional | EL PAÍS

Tools in 3D Sorry, we don’t think we have covered 3D printers as much as we should have done. Potentially they could be just as history-making as AI or genetic engineering. So here is an excellent story from Nature Briefing Five ways 3D printing is improving Lab work to try to make up a bit

Scientists are using ever-cheaper and -simpler 3D printers to create their own tools. The results can cost much less than store-bought tools: one scientist estimates he’s saved more than £1 million by building his own flow reactors. It can also make research more accessible, when scientists share their designs. “You don’t need to buy it,” notes chemical engineer Magda Barecka of the 3D-printed flow cells she uses in her lab. “You just download this paper and you can print it on your own.”

Nature | 10 min read

Quote of the week

Answer a fool according to his folly, lest he be wise in his own conceit.” Proverbs 26 5

#3D printers #cliamte change #ecology #economics #woen #afghanistan #evolution #parenting #fathers #gold hoard

Intismeran:First successful Phase 3 trial for Personalised Vaccines

A 200X photomicrograph magnification of a direct by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0

Vaccines have been the most successful tool in public health for over 150 years. But up to now they have been generic: each one is raised and designed against a specific disease-such as rabies, smallpox and more recently malaria. A new class of vaccine changes that logic entirely. These are individualised neoantigen vaccines, built from the unique mutations in each patient’s tumour. Today we highlight the first positive Phase 3 results for one of these, as reported by the BBC’s Joe McFadden. [1]

Intismeran is constructed from the mutational “fingerprint” of each patient’s melanoma — a bespoke mRNA vaccine rather than a one‑size‑fits‑all jab. In the Phase 3 INTerpath‑001 trial, jointly run by Merck and Moderna, 1,137 patients with completely resected stage IIB–IV melanoma were randomised to receive either Keytruda (Merck’s anti‑PD‑1 therapy) alone or Keytruda plus Intismeran.[2] [3] This is how Joe summarises the early results:

Early results show this new jab extended the length of time these patients were cancer free, but it’s unclear for how long, according to an announcement by the two firms.

Encouraging, we say: hats off to the companies and scientists involved. As for the wider reaction from the scientific community, it is positive indeed, but we’ll leave it to Joe to tell you about that

At this point we invoke our two favourite LSS tropes: caution and caveat. This is an early-days report: the work must now jump all the usual hoops of peer review, regulatory approval scaling and much more before any kind of routine clinical applications are possible. But there are many reasons to be optimistic, not just about Intismeran, but also certain wider preoccupations of ours. Firstly: some of the best research is done by that happy, hard to define network of companies, research institutes and académe, which has done so much to transform the human condition since the nineteenth century. Secondly, genetic engineering, which we follow avidly here, is in its infancy-this is quite different to our regular antibiotics theme, isn’t it? But most of all, if you want life to really get better, stop believing in what you want to believe and start believing in the scientific method.

[1] Vaccine breakthrough stops cancer returning in trial – BBC News

[2] Merck and Moderna Announce Phase 3 INTerpath-001 Trial of Intismeran Autogene Plus KEYTRUDA® Met Endpoints of Recurrence-Free Survival (RFS) and Distant Metastasis-Free Survival (DMFS) in Patients With Completely Resected Stage IIB-IV Melanoma

[3] Merck-Moderna cancer vax slows recurrence in ph. 3 trial

# Intismeran # Keytruda #melanoma #vaccine #mRNA #health #medicine #cancer #reseach #peer review

ULEZ success suggests progress works-sometimes

Remember the waves of fury and anger that swept over certain sections of the population when the London ULEZ zone was introduced.? Among many acts of lawlessness, cameras and signs were smashed and street calming flower planters torn up, all to a cascade of spittle-flecked rage online and in certain popular news outlets. For those not au fait with every aspect of London news, ULEZ is a set of mayoral restrictions on the more lethal forms of traffic pollution, such as nitrous oxides and PM _2.5 particles which was introduced in part in 2019 before subsequent extensions in 2021 and 2023.

Now news comes, from Smitha Mundasad of the BBC,[1] of the remarkable health benefits which have already accrued in the short time since the new scheme’s introduction. A five year study of 3400 children(that’s good numbers, folks) comparing London to Luton(less polluted, but with same mix) revealed

Scientists say they have been “stunned” by how quickly young children’s lungs began to recover and grow after …….. after the introduction of an Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) in 2019 reduced emissions

Being good journalism, based on good science, Smitha points out that other factors must be considered as well. Of course: coping with complexity is what marks out this blog and its readers. But we know the ULEZ achievement to be remarkable nevertheless. And how much cleaner central London is looking these days![2]

Which brings us back to those on the other side who do not really do complexity. Their thought is fast, their opinion quickly formed, their conclusions firm. In this they reminded us of opponents of other episodes of social change: smoking bans in pubs leap to mind. But then we also recalled the angry opposition to seat belts; drink driving laws; clean air acts, child labour restrictions, slavery eradication…..all the way back to the same sort of people who opposed the abolition of gladiatorial games and beast hunting in Ancient Rome. Someone always sees the downside, don’t they?

Perhaps the common thread linking our opponents is not lack of education or indeed intelligence. Perhaps it is that they have made a bet that terrible things only happen to other people : so why should they care? This attitude may work for a while until it is applied to dealing with truly all encompassing phenomena such as antibiotic resistance , disease pandemics and global warming. At which point terrible things will happen to them too.

[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1l1r1zne1ro?at_link_origin=BBCNews&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_link_type=web_link&at_campaign_type=owned

[2]Health risks related to air pollution by transport categories and vehicle types: Comparison by mortality indicators – ScienceDirect

#ULEZ #clean air #traffic pollution #health #london #diesel #particulates #lung #slavery #gladiators #smoking #antibiotic resistance #global warming #pandemics

Are you missing out on red light? A lightbulb moment for Graham Lawton and the New Scientist

It’s a funny thing to be a progressive. We ‘re always prey to the Law of Unintended Consequences. For example, we rack our brains to replace all those nasty energy intensive incandescent bulbs with lovely low energy LEDs . And suddenly there’s a new problem. Is the new light from the LEDs missing something the old incandescents were giving us for free? Something that might, just might, have been good us?

Now we take this problem seriously because it is brought to us by no less than Graham Lawton of the New Scientist, a sure guarantee of intellectual probity. Quite rightly the magazine keeps Graham and all its top writers behind a pay wall, so once again we beg you to either take a sub, or buy the magazine. But the essence of Graham’s article is that the old incandescent lights, for all their dreadful shortcomings. were throwing out long wavelength infrared light, a bit more like the natural light you find when you go outdoors. Graham presents intriguing evidence that these wavelengths stimulate mitochondria to produce energy-carrying ATP (adenosine triphosphate) which production facilitates any number of health benefits, But you’ll have to read his article to find out what those are! Not only do the new LEDs chop out most of that infrared; but the new types of window glass actually reduce its natural ingress further. If you are sitting indoors under the dominance of blue‑weighted indoor light (from computer screens for example) you may be missing out on something rather good.

So how do we as Whigs, progressives, rationalists or whatever you want to call us, take all this? Intelligent readers will already see the other side jumping up and down with glee “See-orl dem (expletive deleted) sointissstss tryin ter cure (expletive deleted) global warmin’ wiv dem crap new bulbs, only making fings worse etc etc” In the same spirit as they disparage initiatives such as renewable energy technologies or health initiatives such as the London ULEZ zone (see next blog) Well, let’s concentrate on the rationalist word Rationalists know the world to be infinitely complex, not reducible to tabloid newspaper soundbites. Naturally every new initiative will have a cost benefit ratio(only children believe in pure unalloyed good) The new LED’s have undoubtedly brought immense benefits Only a pub philosopher would be dim enough to throw them away. But we know the tools of reason and evidence will deal with this problem as it did with the other one. That is what differentiates us.

[1] The shock revelation that light bulbs are wrecking your metabolism | New Scientist

#incandescent bulbs #LED #energy #sustainability #red light #infra red #health #medicine #lighting #ATP

The day Steve Brusatte’s companion was attacked by a dinosaur

As a party of academics led by world renowned palaeontologist Steve Brusatte crossed the remote landscape of Scotland, one of their number was attacked by an angry dinosaur. The victim, an eminent mathematician of Edinburgh University, had got ahead of the main party, Alone and isolated, he was an easy target as the animal swooped, forcing him to race back to his companions for cover Does this sound like something from a Doug McClure movie? Perhaps. But the dinosaur in question was well within her rights, for the Physicist represented a clear and imminent threat to her chicks: and as her partner was out hunting for fish, she was already in a nervous, jumpy mood. Yep, you guessed it she was a herring gull (Larus argentatus) and many who have wondered along a British cliff edge will have encountered this kind of agonistic interaction. But for Brusatte the anecdote illustrates the clear and simple message Birds are dinosaurs the way that Texans are Americans. The perfect start to his latest book The Story of Birds [1] the third in his triptych of eminently readable titles [2] [3] which make even subjects as arcane as vertebrate palaeontology the easiest of reads for those of curious mind but no formal biological training.

Birds are dinosaurs. How well we remember the scornful reactions when pioneers like Ostrom, Bakker and those wonderful old BBC Horizon programmes back in the 1970s first ventured this heretical asseveration. Actually, quite prominent scholars like TH Huxley had pointed out the glaring obviousity in Victorian times. But as early discoveries filled out the museums, the creatures morphed into giant scaly saurians, all impressively huge, but nicely dead, so they couldn’t bite you. After ruling the planet in majestic grandiosity, they were felled by a rogue asteroid, and disappeared for ever, an object lesson in fallen grandeur. It took some adjustment to realise they were hiding in plain sight all along: birds as Byzantium to the Dinosaurs’ Rome. No longer rulers of all, they are still powerful players, filling our skies and seas and forests with sights of unforgettable beauty and wonder. Even their asteroid defying survival was a bit of a miracle, as their close cousins the Dromeosaurids and the Troodonts, equally fast, intelligent and warm blooded were utterly erased by that same impact.

As in all books Brusatte writes with skill ,easily walking the line between over technical and too simple, the very devil of science writing. If you are in anyway interested in where we have come from, in the immense sweep of time and the deep evolutionary roots of your cat’s bitter rivalry with the family of gulls who live up on the roof, then this one is for you.

[1] Brusatte, Steve. The Story of Birds: An Evolutionary History of the Dinosaurs That Live Among Us. London: Picador, 2026; New York: Mariner Books, 2026

[2]Brusatte, Steve. The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs: A New History of a Lost World. New York: William Morrow, 2018; London: Picador, 2018.

[3]Brusatte, Steve. The Rise and Reign of the Mammals: A New History, from the Shadow of the Dinosaurs to Us. London: Macmillan, 2022; New York: HarperCollins/William Morrow, 2022.

# Doug McClure #TH Huxley #dinosaurs #birds #paleontology #kt impact #mammals #texas #evolution #flight

Friday Night: The Hugo Spritz- and this is how to write a real cocktail story

A few short weeks ago we published a sort piece on Italian Cocktails in which we praised the Aperol Spritz (LSS 15 5 26) Not only were we a bit out of date, but all our efforts to bring you the world of cocktails are at once superseded by this excellent piece by those redoubtable ladies Helena Horton and Anna Al-Othman of the Guardian on the Hugo Spritz shows a how a real cocktail piece is written for a real outlet. So in homage to their efforts we shall almost immediately hand you over to the link below [1]

For it will tell you where the new drink was invented, and by whom (how do they do that?) How it’s waxing in popularity in the smart bars and pubs of London- and presumably elsewhere. How its treading on the heels of its older sorella. And above all what delicious ingredients it sports: ” elderflower liqueur such as St-Germain, prosecco, soda water and mint..” according to the ladies,

Well we’ve certainly got all of those somewhere in the house or garden, so we’re off to give it a try. EWe hope you do too-after reading the excellent article of course.

Put away the Aperol and raise a glass to Hugo spritz, the drink of the summer | Cocktails | The Guardian

#hugo spritz #italy #elderflower #cocktail #mint #drinks #entertaining

Round up Birth order, resistant fungus, solar missions and much more

a few examples from this week’s news

Is Birth order Destiny? We’ve long been intrigued by the thought that your birth order-whether you’re a sibling or an older child, older brother, younger sister,etc-affects your personality and life chances. Latest twist in the saga is this piece about disease from the Independent: Study suggests first-born children are more likely to develop neurological conditions and second-born are more prone to substance abuse

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/first-and-second-born-disease-risk-b3028407.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawTicCtwZG9mBWV4dG4DYWVtAjEwAGJyaWQRMFU1SjR6Q2hsamtwamFOMUxzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzk

Recalcitrant Fungus “A drug-resistant fungus that kills thousands of hospital patients in the U.S. every year survives on human skin by hijacking the body’s immune response, scientists have just discovered.” declares Newsweek. So it’s not just bacteria then?

https://www.newsweek.com/deadly-fungus-kills-thousands-every-year-scientists-found-where-it-hides-12297119?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwY

Is all this heat doing in your brain? A few years ago we published a blog speculating that extra carbon dioxide from global warming may be affecting our health (LSS 2 11 20) Well that may or may not be the case: but all that extra heat may well be affecting our brains, as this article from The Conversation makes clear indeed

https://theconversation.com/too-hot-to-think-why-extreme-heat-can-affect-how-well-our-brain-works-289170?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20

Yet more quantum complexity As if quantum physics wasn’t already difficult enough to follow, what with all those bosons, muons hadrons and quarks, Nature Briefing has just made our life a little more difficult with this piece about the Gluon How are we meant to remember all this?

A team of physicists says it has observed strong evidence of a mysterious ‘glueball’, a particle made up of force-carrying gluons. The team says that a particle known as X (2370) is mostly made up of these glueballs — clusters of the gluons that bind quarks to form protons and neutrons and hold them inside the nucleus of an atom. There is no single smoking gun that proves that this particle is made of glueballs, says particle physicist Bruce Yabsley. But the findings are “quite persuasive”, he says. The group presented their results at the International Conference on High Energy Physics in Natal, Brazil, last week.

Nature | 5 min read

Why won’t ET phone us? Normally our Friday purpose is to bring you short snappy pieces before Cocktail Hour. But this Guardian Long Read on why those pesky aliens have never shown up is so very good that we felt it our duty to bring it to you nevertheless

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/aug/11/the-great-silence-why-havent-we-found-any-aliens-yet

India’s day in the Sun If there’s one nation that is making huge leaps-commercial, technological, scientific- it is India. Proof if you want more comes from this admirable solar mission Aditya L1, admirably reported by the BBC

Aditya-L1: Indian solar mission’s new findings throw light on enduring Sun mysteries – BBC News

Quote of the week

Behold, how good and how pleasant it is for brethren to dwell together in unity!” — Psalm 133:1

#india #space #solar #global warming #antibiotic resistance #birth order #physics #climate #psychology #family #health #medicine

Incurable cancers-don’t pick and choose your Science

Over the years we’ve enjoyed bringing you good‑news cancer stories. Only a fraction of what’s available in the wider media, of course, but we try to showcase the ones that matter. And we think you will agree, gentle readers, that the overall direction of travel has been encouraging. Immunotherapy, CAR‑T, genomic sequencing — these are just a few of the leaps and bounds of the last decade. Compared with the situation in 1996, or even 1966 when tobacco was almost de rigueur, you might reasonably feel a measure of satisfaction.

Except, of course, for the truly intractable and life‑wasting tumours that still hover over all our lives. Poised and ready to strike, like a swarm of sinister angels from hell.

Our personal list might include Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC), pancreatic adenocarcinoma, glioblastoma, and certain forms of ovarian and liver cancer. This handy list from ScienceDirect offers an excellent jumping‑off point for anyone who wants to learn more. [1] At which point the Reflective Reader might conclude: “More research to be done.” And there’s the rub, as Shakespeare would have it.

For over those same ten years we have drifted into an age when Science, Research and Investigation are increasingly at a discount rather than a premium. Attacks on climate science, vaccination, and epidemiology are nothing new — but they have increased in fury and frequency, and have afforded licence to dispute the findings of any reasonable and learned experts. Recall the vitriol poured on economists who challenged the latest popular fads in constitutional or economic matters, or sociologists who advocate a more rational approach to any number of issues around crime, the family and poverty. For a broader survey of these attacks on the physical sciences in general, see this link to The Skeptical Inquirer.[2], although for the sociological and economic tropes we have alluded to you’ll have to look elsewhere.

But it is not the specific assaults on rationality that matter so much as the intellectual climate they create. Facts are selected, conclusions jumped to, and the passion is for triumph rather than knowledge. Research is a human, social phenomenon, and it is as sensitive to the social trends around it as winds are to a warming climate. Some people may feel they gain by refusing to reason. But they will pay a long price in untreatable cancers, incurable epidemics, and broken economies.

How to remind them they still have time to make a choice?

[1] The 10 deadliest cancers, and why there’s no cure | Live Science

[2] The Disturbing Attacks on Science | Skeptical Inquirer

# Triple Negative Breast Cancer # glioblastoma # CAR-T # alcohol # cannabis #health #medicine #Climate Science

More good news on designer phages-and why we think they’ll work

Last week, with the help of our doughty researchers, we published a small piece describing how Artificial Intelligence is being employed to design new generations of bacteriophages, some of which might be used to target antibiotic‑resistant bacteria (LSS 8.8.26). Hopeful, certainly — but intelligent readers will ask the old question: what’s the chance any of this will work anytime soon?

Well, you’ll be glad to know that human‑modified bacteriophages have already been in action, and successfully too, since the far‑off days of 2024. They weren’t using AI to design the phages then, merely modifying them using another LSS favourite: CRISPR‑Cas9 gene editing.

Our first trope concerns a report in The Lancet Microbe, a long but reasonably readable paper describing a safety and tolerability trial of SNIPR001 — a combination of four CRISPR–Cas‑equipped bacteriophages — in healthy human volunteers. Results were encouraging:

“SNIPR001 was safe and well tolerated in healthy participants, with signals suggesting targeted activity against E. coli, despite the absence of a statistically significant effect.”

Our second trope comes from the excellent Michael Le Page of New Scientist, who reports on the clinical use of the same SNIPR technology — not a trial in healthy volunteers, but in an actual patient. His piece, CRISPR‑armed phages help treat severe superbug infection, is unfortunately behind a paywall, but worth crossing. It tells the story of a 65‑year‑old man in California with a severe, antibiotic‑resistant E. coli infection whose condition markedly improved after receiving these engineered phages. The lesson is clear: artificially-modified phages can work.

Now, nobody is claiming miracle cures — not the authors of the paper, nor Michael, nor ourselves. But all of us, in our different ways, are pointing to extremely encouraging signs. And remember our original point: all of the above took place, before our famous AI‑designed bacteriophages have even gone into trial. What possibilities might open up when they are fully deployed?

[1] Safety, recovery, and pharmacodynamics of CRISPR–Cas therapeutic SNIPR001: a phase 1, randomised, double-blind, first-in-human, dose-escalation study – The Lancet Microbe

[2] CRISPR-armed phages help treat severe superbug infection | New Scientist

# Artificial Intelligence # bacteriophages # SNIPR001 # CRISPR‑Cas9 #antibiotic resistance #bacteria #microbiology #medicine #health