Farewell Robert Skidelsky. If you want to know more about the current mess, read this

No one over thirty will forget the terrifying autumn of 2008. For on September 15^th of that year the collapse of Lehman Brothers initiated the acute phase of a chronic financial crisis, tumbling the world economy towards final ruin. And as the indefatigable Larry Elliott [1] notes in the Guardian, in his masterly obituary of Robert Skidelsky, the ruling classes of the west were utterly bewildered:

…… there was almost universal disbelief that the crisis was happening. The entire economic establishment – politicians, bankers, Treasury officials, analysts and pundits – were caught unawares, because according to the free-market orthodoxy there was no chance of such a catastrophe occurring

Robert Skidelsky (1929-2026) might have known better. Having devoted a lifetime to studying the works of John Maynard Keynes, he presumably shared that thinker’s suspicion of the axiomatic beneficence of untrammelled Free Markets. Ironically by the summer of 2008 even he felt the Keynesian game was up, and was contemplating other projects, as Elliott points out. Then, as they say-It happened.

For a few fleeting months Keynes was in vogue again, so desperate was the plight of the Great and Good. Interest rates were cut. Money printed. Governments borrowed and spent, Catastrophe was averted. And then? Well, in Britain the Cameron government was elected and reverted to the via dolorosa of financial orthodoxy. Cutting the budget was all that mattered, as if a nation was like a grocer’s shop in a small market town. Keynes was firmly shown the door: and the consequences of poverty, lost growth, wasted lives and appalling political outcomes are with us to this day.

Like Keynes, Skidelsky was not a tribal Party man, having variously flirted with Labour, the SDP, the Tories, and even Jeremy Corbyn in his time. Both Keynes and Skidelsky preferred solutions that worked, reason and evidence over belief and emotion. And both knew that Keynes’ essential insight was that money is about a lot more than just cash, or even more sophisticated accountants’ tricks like stocks and shares. Money is really a network of obligations, contracts, promises and deliveries which facilitate the flow of energy through human societies and by which they live. Any system which depends ultimately on the unregulated competition of lone individuals will ultimately corrupt the information and break the trust on which all depend. A truth now lost in the declining plutocracies of the west, but which certain other parties have understood very well

[1] Lord Skidelsky obituary | Robert Skidelsky | The Guardian

[2] Skidelsky, Robert. John Maynard Keynes: 1883–1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman. London: Penguin Books.

#robert skidelski #JM Keynes #economics #politics #financial crash

Beyond the Nation State #6: The Cost of Nations

Identity, it is said, is the most important thing a People can have. So what better way to guarantee that identity than by taking back control and assuring it inside a sovereign nation state.? It’s a very popular policy at the moment, so there must be advantages. But it’s worth at least noting the counterfactual argument, because it has consequences for what we try do here.

If you’re going to have a sovereignty worthy of the name, you must have the following: Defence, Intelligence, Borders, Customs, Taxes, Tariffs, Executive, Legislature, Judiciary, Foreign ministry ,Legal system, Central bank, Currency, Police and Regulators. To say nothing of the fixed obligations such as pensions you inherited from the larger state you have left. You could opt for health education, culture, policy, tourism and transport as well; but these are discretionary. So could smaller entities bear all these costs if they went it alone? Could California? (large-ish) Wales?(medium) Or Jersey? (rather small, with due respect). Take Wales as a hypothesis : let’s say the UK spends £50 billion on Defence and Wales is 3.1% of its population. That ratio would entitle an independent Wales to £1.5 billion. Would they be as well defended? The answer is no. For one thing they would have to set up entirely new structures of command, procurement, intelligence and all the other essentials of a modern force. Secondly, there is the brute fact that larger purchases always generate cheaper prices for anything Defensive-aeroplanes, tanks, guns, even the dusting cloths you need to keep them clean. Bulk purchase means cheaper unit cost. And it works the other way. Even a superb Welsh manufacturer of tanks would only enjoy tiny assured domestic markets, making its borrowing and production costs prohibitive in a world market. That is why American giants like Ford and General Motors thrived in the twentieth century: they had fixed access to the largest Single Market then available. That is why nations which have tried to downsize, like the UK after Brexit, have struggled so badly ever since.

The argument to grow polities into larger units is the same as that for growing companies. Economy of scale and stripping out fixed costs. A World Government would only need one of each the exhaustive list above. Imagine the procurement advantages in any number of things-medicines, schoolbooks, computers or even those wretched dusters again. What a saving for taxpayers! A single world Ministry of Defence would enjoy the highest possible bargaining power against its suppliers, cutting the cost of the $2.7 trillion we spend as a planet on defence by whole orders of magnitude. Of course, if there were a World Government most defence spending would become unnecessary anyway, as most nations’ armies exist sole to defend against other nations’ armies. But that’s something for another day

#nation state #history #politics #economics #world government

Breakthrough for blindness, an old lesson re-learned: and a mystery question

Leber congenital amaurosis, called LCA for short, is the most common form inherited sight loss in children[1] It’s caused by defects in a cluster of genes including RPE65 and until recently was quite untreatable. Now, as Ian Sample reports for the Guardian,[2] a team of researchers have effected a major new treatment called Luxturna: a gene‑replacement therapy delivered by injecting a working copy of the RPE65 gene directly under the retina. By giving retinal cells the functional gene they’re missing, it restores the visual cycle and can improve light sensitivity, visual function, and navigation ability in people with RPE65-related Leber congenital amaurosis. Interestingly the team comprises a husband and wife called Jean Bennett and Albert Maguire who share the prestigious Breakthough Prize [3] with their colleague Katherine High.

Regular readers will share our admiration for the work of this remarkable trio. They may note moreover that the researchers have something else to teach us, something that strongly concurs with opinions often expressed in this blog:

Bennett said it was a “tremendously exciting time” for scientific and medical research, but warned that the US administration’s attacks on science could “cause damage for generations to come”, leading her to fear a brain drain that the country would struggle to recover from.

“Agendas have become politicised, government agencies that support basic and applied research have been undermined, knowledgeable advisers and experts have been dismissed or have fled and revised guidelines contradict decades of rigorous research,”

Says it all really. But don’t just sit around reading it here:tell your friends and neighbours. For us there still remains outstanding question. Is Albert Maguire by any chance a relation of Ken Maguire, one of the best pub landlords of the 1990s, being sometime manager of the superb Latymers in Hammersmith Road London W14?

[1]Leber congenital amaurosis – Moorfields Eye Hospital

[2]‘Oscar of science’ awarded to team behind gene therapy that restores lost vision | Science | The Guardian

[3]Breakthrough Prize – Wikipedia

#LCA #Blindness #gene therapy #medicine #health #science #research #pub #beer

Round up: Electric cars, Aerial DNA, AI unemployment and a truly topical quote

Wolf. Original public domain image by U.S. Forest Service (source) is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0

Permanently plugged in The war in the Persian Gulf is causing oil prices to soar But even if they drop again, Electric cars are finally here to stay argues this piece from The Conversation

https://theconversation.com/electric-vehicles-pass-tipping-point-breaking-the-link-with-oil-prices-280655?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%2

There’s something in the air A few years ago researchers learned how to use environmental DNA, such as in the mud of old caves, to map the species of the past. Now the studies have been given a contemporary twist as this piece in Nature Briefing shows

The air around us is teeming with the DNA of various organisms, ranging from people to viruses. Over the past decade, researchers have been learning how to collect airborne DNA and use it to study the movement of individual species, entire ecosystems or even attacks with biological weapons. But some hurdles remain: scientists still aren’t sure for how long DNA can persist in the air, or how far it can travel. And some experts worry that DNA plucked from the air could inadvertently reveal the characteristics of people that haven’t consented to such analysis

Nature | 12 min read

AI is a people problem Do you think AI will destroy jobs or create them? The real question and answer is not the technology , but how governments and societies respond, according to this piece from the Guardian by Larry Elliott

AI is destroying jobs – and the energy crisis could make that much worse | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

Hungry like the Wolf We loved this story of Neukgu a two-year-old Wolf who escaped from Daejeon Zoo in South Korea and spent nine days on the lam before being finally recaptured, giving his human supervisors a dog’s life in the process The BBC has the story

Neukgu: South Korea’s runaway wolf finally captured after nine-day search – BBC News

Quote of the week Since The Pope, Jesus Christ, Religion, and certain other almost equally eminent figures have cropped up in the news so much this week, we thought this little snippet seemed appropriate

12 How art thou fallen from heaven, O Lucifer, son of the morning! how art thou cut down to the ground, which didst weaken the nations!

13 For thou hast said in thine heart, I will ascend into heaven, I will exalt my throne above the stars of God: I will sit also upon the mount of the congregation, in the sides of the north:

14 I will ascend above the heights of the clouds; I will be like the most High.

Isiah 14: 12-14

Now-who on earth might that apply to, do you think?

#electric cars #big oil #DNA #AI #economics #wolf #south korea

Collapse in AMOC equals havoc

Photo by Chris LeBoutillier on Pexels.com

In theory, you can rebuild after a war. But if the Atlantic currents collapse there will be no rebuilding. Because the change will be irreversible, and anyway there will be no economy left to rebuild with. That’s now a real possibility according to this story from Damian Carrington of the Guardian.[1] [2] We start with something called the AMOC or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for short.

The world of oceanography and currents can all seem a bit remote from everyday life. But to plunge in briefly: Global warming has been adding colossal amounts of fresh meltwater—especially from Greenland—into the North Atlantic. This reduces salinity and density, in turn preventing surface water from sinking, which is the key engine of the AMOC. As sinking slows, the whole circulation weakens and it will eventually tip into a collapsed state. The question is when and what are the chances? According to Damien:

they found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse.

And what will that collapse look like? After the initial shock, a permanent series of frozen winters in western Europe. There will be catastrophic ruptures in food chains as fields ice over, fish stocks migrate and transport is disrupted. Societies will face massive dislocation as people migrate from flooded coastal regions and river valleys. In turn producing massive conflicts on higher ground, as refugees discover that they are suddenly immigrants in what used to be “their” country.

Leaving you, gentle readers, with a choice on the balance of probabilities. You can rely on the findings of scientists [3] who have studied this issue assiduously for more than three decades and whose work is publicly available for anyone to examine. Or you can rely on opinions expressed in online comment sections. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. The real question is which source of information a reasonable and informed person would choose to act upon.

[1] Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought | Oceans | The Guardian

[2] Atlantic meridional overturning circulation – Wikipedia

[3] Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century | Science Advances

Global warming #climate change #atlantic ocean #amoc #flood #ice age #ecological collapse

Flynn Coleman sees hope in Artemis

We are sometimes accused of being too gloomy here. Too admonitory, too censorious, scolding and sanctimonious. Preachy. Lecturing. Hectoring, perish the thought. Even didactic in certain circumstances. Judgemental was another one hurled at us by younger colleagues back in the nineties. Doesn’t everyone have to make judgements? we replied. We didn’t cause them to lead lives of frivolity greed and sensual indulgence, we simply pointed out a few obvious truths.

All of which may be impeding us from getting our message across at times, perhaps. So to make amends we have selected this rather upbeat article by a certain Flynn Coleman who writes in the Guardian. [1] He cites the Artemis 2 moon mission as his text and contrasts it with acts of brutality and ignorance back here on earth. Like Iraq in 2006 or the the high commands of certain nations in our own more troubled tomes. He invokes the spirit of the great Jim Lovell, a man whose intelligence and courage were displayed on both the Apollo 8 and 13 missions Above all its the duality which intrigues. Your species species can reach for the stars. You are more than the bunch of angry ape men we keep telling you that you are.

And Flyn’s final point is: you can choose to be one or the other. But read it for yourselves, gentle readers. And at least thank us for doing something Nice for a change.

[1]This week saw humanity at its worst. Artemis II told the opposite story | Flynn Coleman | The Guardian

#war #peace #artemis mission #space #moon #humanity #ethics

CART-T therapy takes three big steps forward

Photo by Monstera Production on Pexels.com

Once again we are indebted to that excellent organisation Nature Briefing for this opportunity to showcase another giant step forward for that old LSS favourite CAR-T therapy. [1]Well, three steps actually: as you will find out if you read this extract which they have titled One CAR-T to cure them all

A woman with an ultra-rare combination of three autoimmune diseases has had no symptoms since receiving a single dose of engineered immune cells. Researchers used the woman’s own T cells to develop chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells that targeted a protein on her B cells — the culprits behind her trifecta of autoimmune conditions. The woman experienced no side effects from the treatment, and fourteen months on she doesn’t take any medication for her conditions, says haematologist Fabian Müller, who helped to develop the treatment.Nature | 5 min read
Reference: Med paper

Breakthroughs like this don’t come from wishful thinking, magical explanations, or comforting stories about how the world ought to work. They come from the scientific method: from hypotheses that can be tested, data that can be challenged, and results that must survive scrutiny. When we follow that discipline, we get therapies that save lives. When we don’t, we get nothing but anecdotes and disappointment. The contrast speaks for itself We have other tasks for other publishers today, and must attend to them But we hope the foregoing leaves you with a tiny quantity of Hope

[1]CAR T-cell therapy | Cancer Research UK

#CAR-T #cancer #medicine #science #health #reason #auto immune disease

Friday Night: Stormy Weather/Clear Skies Ahead

Tonight, ladies and gentlemen,we are proud to bring you not one cocktail, but two! Cunningly arranged into this neat diptych of Stormy Weather/Clear Skies Ahead. Which we fervently hope may act as a metaphor for these troubled times. So without further delay, and with the aid of our Sturdy Hamlyn The Ultimate Cocktail Book let’s get started.

STORMY WEATHER Put three of your iciest ice cubes in a shaker. Add 1½ measures of gin, ¼ measureof Mandarine Napoleon liqueur, ¼ measure of dry vermouth, ¼ measure of sweet vermouth and shake ‘em like Stevens. Pour to a chilled cocktail glass and decorate with a neatly trimmed spiral of orange .We haven’t the foggiest idea how this one got its name. but to help you enjoy it we link to Etta James performing the eponymous song, composed by Harold Arlen and Ted Koehler in 1933. It drifts straight out of the jazz age, evoking a melancholy ambience of nightclubs soaked in gin, cigarette smoke and heartbreak. Cheers everyone!

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=song+stormy+weather&&mid=CE612D46E9198

CLEAR SKIES AHEAD After the rain there is always sunshine. Or so we hope. To get that optimistic mood going, add 4 ice cubes to a shaker. You then add ½ teaspoon of sugar syrup, the juice of ½ a lemon, ½ teaspoon of grenadine, 1 egg white and 2 measures of whisky. Shake and pour to a tumbler and decorate with a paper umbrella (very 1980s!-but that’s what the book says, so who are we to differ?) For our musical accompaniment we have chosen Irving Berlin’s Blue Skies, here performed by Benny Goodman and his orchestra. Its sunny vibe captures the spirit of a world recovering a bit of prosperity under the guidance of an able President (Roosevelt) who followed the guidance of a thoughtful economist (JM Keynes) So now everything will be alright then: yes or no?

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=benny+goodman+blue+skies&&mid=E52D90BB2028FF1663BC

#cocktail #President Roosevelt #JM Keynes #music

Humble little herb may have mighty role as antibiotic

Could a humble little wildflower growing unnoticed in bog and marshland be a key player in the science of antibiotic resistance? According to an article by researchers Ronan McCarthy John J. Walsh and Kavita Gadar for the Conversation[1], yes it could. For they have discovered that Tormentil (Potentilla erecta) [2] not only has intriguing antibiotic properties of its own, it may help us to retread and recycle some old human made antibiotics which are sadly reaching the end of their effective lives.

Tormentil has appeared for centuries in the herbariums of traditional folk medicine. It has been used variously to treat ailments as diverse as gum disease, diarrhoea and wounds. Noting this, our resourceful researchers put it into a cross study against 70 other plant species in their Laboratory. It came out tops, hacking into the biofilms that bacteria use to defend themselves and thereby shortening the lives of these creatures by more than somewhat. They even identified the active agents in the tormentil which are ellagic acid and agrimonem. But you probably guessed that, being such an erudite and well-informed bunch of readers. Even more remarkably they:

…. combined low levels of the antibiotic colistin – an antibiotic that is only used as a last-resort against severe infections due to its potential toxicity to patients – with the tormentil extract. The low-level antibiotic dosage wasn’t enough to kill the bacteria when used on its own. But when combined with the tormentil extract, the plant compound enhanced the antibiotic’s efficacy.

You don’t need to be an old LSS hand to realise our worries about the declining effectiveness of colistin and some of the other older antibiotics.[3]

And our conclusions? We’ve written over twenty blogs on the theme of antibiotics or other medicines which may be hidden in nature. And therefore to destroy wildlands in order to grow food which no one really needs, or to build shopping malls of aching vacuity, is biologically insane, whatever the short term economic benefits. That probably half of all wild plants contain something useful, if only to the secret services of certain well known governments . As Shakespeare had it

“Within the infant rind of this small flower / Poison hath residence and medicine power.”
— Romeo and Juliet, Act 2, Scene 3

[1] https://theconversation.com/wildflower-once-used-to-treat-wounds-and-sore-throats-shows-promise-in-fighting-dangerous-superbugs-279406?utm_mediu

[2] Potentilla erecta – Wikipedia

[3] Liu, Y.-Y. et al. (2016). “Emergence of plasmid-mediated colistin resistance mechanism MCR-1 in animals and human beings in China.” The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 16(2), 161–168.
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00424-7

#health #medicine #antibiotic resistance #wild flowers #tormentil #bacteria #microbiology

Eyes show why evolution is never linear

Photo by Alejandro Quintanar on Pexels.com

Opponents of evolution and natural selection are fond of quoting the eye as an example of irreducible complexity which they imagine will wash away all objections to their creeds: “How could anything so complex have evolved without a very clever chap like God being behind it?” they ask, “and why would it have evolved as it only works when it’s completed?” Aside from the logical error which astute readers will have spotted at once, the story of how eyes evolved not only demonstrates how it happened, but answers so many other questions,that it’s actually rather more interesting than the stories offered as an alternative. Read this beautifully explained article in the Conversation by George Kafetzis and Dan Nillson [1] for a full exposition. Our humble summary appears below.

About 620 million years ago there lived an animal that was ancestral to all animals that would ever have two sides and move forward. It needed to steer as it swam: so it had two light sensitive areas symmetrically up front on either side. Another patch on top told light from dark, and which way up it was. And there it might have ended except for two things One group of these animals went to live in the mud as filter feeders. Having no need to swim they lost the steering eyes. Of course they kept the middle eye as it as still important to know if the Sun was shining. But when some of their descendants in turn started swimming again they needed to steer. Slowly the sides of the top eye moved apart, developed lenses and became eyes. These were the vertebrates. And this is why the eyes of all vertebrates-fish, lizards, birds and humans are so very very different from all other animals :invertebrates, such as scorpions, flies, octopuses and so on . Never giving up moving, their ancestors needed those original bilateral side eyes which slowly became more and more complex. Look at a fly if you don’t believe us. For the record the vertebrates kept the third top eye, its just that in mammals it has shrunk to the internal pineal gland where it still controls lots of light-related things like sleep and melatonin release

Its funny to think of eyes starting simple, evolving, un-evolving in some groups, and then evolving again, all according to the needs of those animals at the time. Its refreshing to find our basic LSS beliefs confirmed. Truth, or knowledge worth knowing, is complex and requires a lot of patient exposition to tease out. And it shows that simple, this-explains-it -all tales only end up obfuscating any real understanding.l. Nice to think that what happened 600 million years ago still has lessons for us today.

[1]https://theconversation.com/our-modern-vision-evolved-from-an-ancient-one-eyed-worm-creature-278120?utm_medium=email&utm_ca

#evolution #natural selection #eye #cambrian #vertebrates #invertebrates #paleonto;ogy #biology