The Emperor Julian’s strategic disaster: are their any modern parallels?

When the Emperor Julian the Apostate [1] took the Imperial throne in 361AD, he inherited an Empire far past its peak. Although still close to full size, centuries of economic decline, pandemics and civil wars had left it gravely weakened and divided. But Julian was nothing if not idealistic. He would make Rome great again by restoring all the old ways of its Imperial zenith. And his chosen method was a culture war: he would overthrow the new religion of Christianity and restore the traditional Roman beliefs of the Pagan Gods.

But it takes more than a few decrees and orders to restore an nation in decline. Within a year the Empire was even more divided by the passions his reforms had unleashed. Prestige damaged, project weakened, Julian had one last way to seize the initiative. To invade Rome’s traditional enemy Persia ( a country now called Iran) and crushing them with superior military might. Thus his own prestige would be so enhanced that everyone at home would have to do what he said. It was tempting operation: he was a good general, the Roman Army was still a formidable force, the ruling Sassanid dynasty of ~~Iran,~~ sorry, Persia, was both oppressive and unpopular. So in the Spring of 363 Julian led his army across the Euphrates in a lightning march designed to shock and awe his enemies into submission.

At first all went well. Towns were captured, battles won, territories seized. But the Sassanids, masters of asymmetric warfare, refused to play by Roman rules. They harried, retreated, drew Julian deeper and deeper into hostile terrain. Supply lines thinned, losses mounted and the army grew increasingly unsure. We have an eyewitness account from a Roman Officer who served in the campaign:

The Persians, avoiding a regular engagement, harassed us with frequent skirmishes, and by burning the country round, deprived us of the means of subsistence.”
— Ammianus Marcellinus, Res Gestae, Book XXV, Chapter 1

Eventually the Sassanids closed the trap. Julian was mortally wounded. His successor was forced to surrender the army and retreat in disgrace. But the real loss was far graver than that. Julian had made the last gamble of the undivided Roman Empire-and lost. His culture war did not outlive him, for the empire was fully Christian within a generation. The Roman army would never be strong enough to take the strategic offensive again: it became an entirely defensive force. Even that failed at the great Battle of Adrianople in 378, which finally shattered the myth of Roman invincibility. Julian has had many admirers, both ancient and modern [2] But the verdict on him is damning. For reasons of internal prestige he launched a war with no clear strategic aims against an underestimated enemy and thereby inflicted an irretrievable strategic defeat on his own nation. Can you think of any modern parallels?

[1] Julian (emperor) – Wikipedia

[2] Gore Vidal, Julian.Vintage International (Knopf Doubleday), reissued 2003.

#Julian the Apostate #history #Persians #Iranians #Roman Empire #military

Eleven Hottest Years: While the world argues, the planet sets another relentless record

We once asked someone who is far more intelligent than we are: “what is the secret of intelligence-what do intelligent people really do?” And he replied, “they pick out what is really important from what is merely important,” And in that spirit we urge you gentle readers to approach this story from Nature Briefing with due attention. Put it, as t’were in context with the doings of Mr Trump , the England cricket team and the various rescued felines who will flicker across your screen this morning. All important, no doubt. Yet this is the story which will affect you, your children and their childrens’ children for decades to come. Or maybe not: for it has the potential to ensure that such generations do not exist They’ve called it We’ve just had the hottest 11 years on record

The years from 2015–2025 have been the hottest stretch on record, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization. For the first time, the report includes a measure called Earth’s energy imbalance — the difference between incoming energy from the Sun and the amount radiated back into space — which is at its highest level since observations started in 1960. And in 2024, the latest year that global figures are available, atmospheric CO₂ reached its highest concentration in two million years. “In this age of war, climate stress is also exposing another truth: our addiction to fossil fuels is destabilizing both the climate and global security,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement.

Nature | 5 min read
Reference: State of the Global Climate 2025 report

There are many sorrowful things in here gentle readers, but we advise you to read them for yourselves. What actually scares us is this. Humans seem really good at identifying a perceived threat from other groups of humans. And reacting to it with hysterical fear and anger. They seem less good at perceiving and contending with long term insidious but ineluctable threats that threaten them all with extinction. Is this an actual cognitive defect of the human mind? In which case what chances will Natural Selection offer us in the next few decades?

#climate change #global warming #fossil fuels #oil #middle east #pollution #human extinction

Beyond the Nation #4: Of War and Peace

Photo by Mitchell Soeharsono on Pexels.com

Themes of war and peace are constant here. Human beings, we have often said, posses a pathological tendency to divide themselves, quickly, into mutually hostile groups [1,2] And that once those identities are established, their members proceed to ascribe all evil and nefariousness to their latest enemy. [3.4] Even the most advanced and enlightened nations are not immune. We do not wish to single out the US. But remember when the North Vietnamese were about to unleash a domino effect with countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and beyond toppling to Communism, ending with the Red Flag raised in triumph over the Sydney Opera House? Or when Mr Saddam Hussein grasped weapons of mass destruction of such awesome power and reach that they threatened the lives of very man woman and child with imminent destruction?

Nations change in size, Bu the threat is the same. Our Spanish readers will recall a time when nations such as Castille, Leon, Navarre, Aragon and the various emirates to the south fought each other like tom cats. If they tried it now the Spanish Government would simply send the police to arrest the culprits. Every nation shows the same sorry trend: remember our post on the unknown skeletons of Neolithic Alava, who died for causes long rendered futile by their utter unknowability? (LSS 5 11 2023)

It is impossible to estimate the costs-economic, ecological, in lives- of the current war in the Middle East. All of us must pay them, although only three of our current nation states are directly involved. But we know they will constitute a long lasting tax on future generations. Which leads back to the United States The principle of their founding Revolution was “no taxation without representation.” So do all the other nations deserve representation in the dialectic of this war? And thereby, perhaps, to stop it while there is still time?

[1] Social identity theory – Wikipedia

[2] Realistic conflict theory – Wikipedia

[3] Chua, Amy. Political Tribes: Group Instinct and the Fate of Nations. New York: Penguin Press, 2018.

[4] Kaufmann, Eric. Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities. London: Allen Lane, 2018.

#war #social identity theory #peace #nation state #vietnam war #iraq war #middle east #saddam hussein #president george w bush

Another big thank you-and we apologise to a leading national newspaper and one of its most eminent journalists

Recently we have had so many likes, new readers and suggestions that we can’t keep up. As some of you know, we have other writing commitments beyond this blog, plus a busy programme of reading and learning; and many of you, erudite readers, will know the effort which that entails. We try to visit the sites of all who like or comment: many are far superior to our own in terms of design and layout. Have you all been to the Slade School of Fine Arts or something? Keep ’em going, and don’t worry about us nicking your ideas. Our IT and design skills are below those of a two-year-old Sasquatch, and that’s on a good day. But we will say to all and every one of you :THANK YOU. It is a pleasure to be in your intellectual company.

Now for an apology. To you our readers, to Larry Elliott, to the Guardian, to whomsoever really. For in our blog of 11 November 2024 From American Decline to World Government; fasten your seatbelts for a bumpy ride, we categorically stated

Let’s just jump across the Atlantic for a moment to say goodbye to Larry Elliott who quits his post at the Guardian after 36 years {2]

Well we’re happy to state Larry Elliott is still very much to be found among the pages of the Guardian. Whereby he still features as one of our regular showcased writers in turn, Perhaps the nature of his contractual relationship with the Guardian has changed. That is a matter between him and them. But there he is still, plugging away, filing copy, all of it worth a read, which is why he will continue to pop up here, gentle readers, Sorry for that misunderstanding. But there was one thing we did get right in that blog, gentle readers. Remember something about American Decline and bumpy rides? How’s your seatbelt today?

_{Editorial note: the picture of ourselves posted above is more of an idealised statement than a precise and literal likeness of its subject and anyway was made up a number of years ago, But you probably guessed that anyway}

#USA #geopolitics #Iran #middle east #inequlity #economics #war

Round Up: CART meets CRISPR, ancient conversation. beavers and museums

A quick run through of a few stories that caught our eye this week

Two’s better than one We love those old crossover films where two franchises meet-Godzilla v King Kong, or Jesse James Meets Frankenstein’s Daughter, to name but a few. How much more thrilling then to see two of our favourite recent breakthrough techniques paied together for a tour de force of cancer treatment? CRISPR makes CAR T cells inside mice as Nature Briefing would have it:

Using the CRISPR–Cas9 gene-editing tool, researchers have developed a method to safely engineer cancer-fighting immune cells — called chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells — inside a mouse’s body. The method uses a combination of virus-like particles to carry RNA and CRISPR–Cas9 machinery to T cells, and an engineered virus to deliver DNA that contains the CAR-encoding gene. A T cell had to receive both payloads to become a CAR T cell, lowering the risk of off-target effects. Reprogramming T cells inside the body would be quicker than removing and re-injecting them, which is how CAR-T-cell therapies are currently made.

Nature | 5 min read

It seems we’ve stood and talked like this before No not Lorenz Hart but some serious scientists who have attempted to reconstruct the languages of our hirsute ancestors like Neanderthal Man(surely person?-ed) and Homo erectus Could their conversations have been any less enlightened than some we hear today? The Mail has the answers

Ever wondered what Neanderthals sounded like? Scientists recreate the lost languages of ancient humans | Daily Mail Online

Beavering away at carbon capture The recent, heartwarming, trend to restore the Beaver (Castor fiber) to its rightful habitat in these islands has had some unexpected side effects. Its seems the busy little creatures hydrological engineering may also help with carbon capture, or so The Conversation thinks:

https://theconversation.com/beavers-can-turn-streams-into-carbon-stores-we-measured-how-much-278489?utm_medium=email&utm_ca

Funky Gibbon OK we’re bit Edward Gibbon heavy on this blog at times, endlessly talking about declines and falls of mighty empires when we should be getting on with some antibiotics. But we’re not alone. Larry Elliott of the Guardian compares the current US plight to the stae Britain was at the time of the Boer war: judge for yourself

Iran could be the US’s Boer war: a hollow victory that marks the beginning of the end of empire | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

Megafauna v Marbles No trip to London would be complete without a visit to the British Museum. Or the Natural History Museum. Problem is: which? But just like in one of those old Harryhausen movies it seems the gallant Greek warriors are losing out badly to the giant saurians as far as the Box Office is concerned Try this from the BBC

Natural History Museum most popular tourist attraction in 2025 – BBC News

Quote of the week ( we think it rather topical)

I will have such revenges on you both/That all the world shall-I will do such things-What they are yet, I know not/ But they shall be the terrors of the earth

King Lear Act 2 Scene 4

#tourism #museums #carbon capture #rewilding #health #medicine #evolution

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Heroes of Learning: Piero Della Francesca

Birth Virgin Fra Carnevale (Bartolomeo by themet is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0

Think back to school: did you ever know the kid who was bright at everything? Most of us were good at something, but that alone: the sporty type who to put it politely, was not too strong on sciences. The maths nerd with negative social skills. The arty type, the musician, the classroom politician…..but did you ever know someone who was brilliant all around the block? We think that Piero Della Francesca (1415-1492) must have been one of those irritating subset of pupils who really was.[1]

Apprenticed as a painter and artist in his birthplace of Borgo Santo Sepolcro, he was soon brushing up against giants like Fra Angelico, Donatello and Brunelleschi. Something must have rubbed off, because within a few years he was earning the first commissions for what was to become a remarkable canon of early Renaissance masterpieces: they remain favourites of the art-loving public to this day. And for once we can be very specific about their USP: because alongside his studies in art the young Piero had been busy studying geometry and other branches of mathematics. Their influence is not just glimpsed in his work, they are the very basis of its careful precision and intellectual rigour. Here was a Renaissance man par excellence, who can stand comparison with Leonardo or indeed the genius of any age in human history. A Polymath for All Seasons.

One of the downsides of the immense quantities of knowledge in the modern world is the way it drives ever narrower specialisation. And this is quite necessary: one must spend years studying a particular enzyme system or economic model before there is anything new to say. In the course of a long life we have met one, possibly two, polymathic geniuses who might make useful contributions in several fields in the way that Della Francesca did. But to see the light sparkle in his pictures is to glimpse a time when the educated could still delight in all discoveries, and learning seemed to be something more than a task.

[1] Piero della Francesca – Wikipedia

#art #science #polymath #Italy #renaissance #mathematics

Why North Sea Oil is an error in critical thinking

It’s always touching to listen to the philosophical musings of our old friend Dave Watford and the lads at the Dog and Duck. Last night they favoured us with their thoughts(is that the right word?-ed) on the current Energy crisis:

“ Iss Bonkers! Why don’t we jus drill fer all that oil inna (expletive deleted) norwf sea, an forget orl this (expletive deleted) green palaver? There’s loads of it aht there, an we’d be enji sufichent and all that. Thass wot we did inner noineen (expletive deleted) ighteez an we ad loadsa munny”

That was the gist of what they said. But however well-meant their intentions, their chain of reasoning suffers from two fatal flaws: availability bias, and simplification. In fact this article from Cassandra Etter-Wenzel Anupama Sen and Nadia Schroedern so utterly confronts these errors that we offer it to you more in the spirit of a master class in clear thinking than a comment on energy policy.

Availability Trap 1 Yes there is oil under the North Sea. But even if extracted, it would go straight to world markets, meaning it would have no effect on consumer energy prices in the UK.

Simplicity Trap 1 All that gas would bring down prices The precise cost of the energy (gas renewable, whatever) is called the wholesale price and consitutes only 41% of the price paid per house. The rest includes many other factors like network running costs, etc.

Availability trap 2 Ignore the potential cost savings from renewables, which would actually bring the wholesale price of energy faster

Simplicity trap 2 Ignore other factors like insulation (at which the UK is dire) which would be addressed by a renewable based modernisation policy

Availability Trap 3 Completely ignore that the UKs utter dependency on fossil fuels has led to disaster in the past (1973: 2022) and is therefore likely to do so again

And finally: nostalgia for a vanished golden age is no guide to policy whatsoever. We don’t know the name for that error, but it’s probably the biggest one of all.

Hats off to Will de Freitas of the Conversation for commissioning this exquisite article

https://theconversation.com/would-more-north-sea-drilling-lower-uk-energy-bills-our-analysis-says-no-278467?utm_m

#fossil fuels #renewables #energy #climate change #north sea

Who Will Win the War Between Israel, the United States, and Iran? Here’s our Prediction

Photo by Inge Wallumru00f8d on Pexels.com

China

Beyond the Nation#3: Assorted Pollution

We kicked off this series with a blog about global warming: if that’s not a pollution story, we don’t know what is. But as several of you pointed out, there are many other forms of pollution in the world, all equally insidious and all resistant to efforts to clean them up. So here we go.

Pollution is the purest demonstration of the nation state’s irrelevance. PFAS don’t recognise sovereignty. Microplastics don’t stop for border guards. Nitrates don’t care who won the last election. They move through the world according to the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology, not geopolitics. And yet we persist with a governance model that is incapable of addressing a problem so acute it threatens basic survival.

Meaning companies have every incentive to dump where enforcement is weakest. Meaning diplomatic stalemates ensure treaties — if they exist at all — move at the speed of the slowest government. Meaning a jungle equilibrium of absolute economic self‑interest prevails, and no state wants to, or can afford to, be the first to tighten rules.

Take mercury. The Minamata Convention (2013)[1] was meant to curb global pollution from this utterly unpleasant and dangerous substance. But it is a broken reed, riddled with exemptions, get‑out clauses and pulled punches. National opt‑outs, slow phase‑outs, feeble enforcement and zero penalties for non‑compliance. Global mercury emissions have not meaningfully declined since the treaty was signed — and in some sectors have increased — seeping into rivers, seas and oceans, and contaminating supposedly healthy foods with a potent neurotoxin.

And alongside mercury we could list such fracases as PFAS (no treaty at all), the Asian brown‑cloud smogs, [2] the Basel Convention on plastic waste (more holes than Emmental cheese), not to mention our own bête noire of antibiotic resistance, where a total failure of international co‑ordination may yet lead to the most deadly health emergency of all.

At no point do we blame individuals, nor look for sinners against whom we may throw stones. Everyone caught in this trap is acting in their own rational self‑interest. Governments, by definition, measure themselves against other governments. The system has worked reasonably well up to now — at least it allowed copying from better practitioners. And companies are simply obeying the iron economic rules of profit and loss, buy and sell.

The trouble is that these rules now operate globally, while regulation remains national. And all the pollutants we have mentioned fall into those gaps — where they will continue to accumulate with deadly effect.

[1] Minamata Convention on Mercury – Wikipedia [2] Asian brown cloud – Wikipedia

#pollution #governance #treaties #PFA #mercury #nitrates #antibiotic resistance

Meningitis in Canterbury: Pray those antibiotics keep working

Bacterial meningitis[1] isn’t some Victorian relic. The organisms that cause it, such as Neisseria meningitidis or Streptococcus pneumoniae are lurking in respiratory tracts across entire communities. Waiting for their chance. When that chance comes the attack can be terrifyingly swift. For once inside the system, the bacteria trigger a storm of inflammation around the brain — the body’s own defences become part of the damage. The swelling inside the skull crushes delicate neural tissue; the toxins shred blood vessels; the immune response turns lethal by accident. This is why survivors often live with hearing loss, seizures, cognitive injury, amputations — the aftermath is not a tidy recovery story. Some. of course, do not survive. As we write another outbreak is tearing through the quiet university town of Canterbury in Kent, as described by Mark Newman and Patrick Barlow of the BBC [2] It won’t be the last.

Because up to now our most effective defence against meningitis has been antibiotics. Which is why the UK Health Security Agency is rushing some to the epicentre of this latest outbreak, desperately hoping to stem it before it spreads further. Maybe, this time, they will succeed. But the next time? On current trends we are heading towards a world with no antibiotics. Given declining rates of vaccination generally, that means a return to a world where meningitis is once more common. Victorian Values, anyone?

[1] Meningitis – NHS

[2] Meningitis – NHS

[3] Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050 – The Lancet

#antibiotic resistance #meningitis #health #medicine #canterbury #kent #bacteria #epidemic