Why is the Ozone hole suddenly getting bigger again?

Our showcase today is an article by Shivali Best of the Mail, who reports that this September has seen a disquietingly fast opening of the ozone “hole” over the Antarctic. [1] It’s disturbing for two reasons. One, obviously: the ozone layer is what protects us all from ultra-violet radiation, which would otherwise cause skin cancers and many other inconvenient forms of disease. Secondly, closing the hole in the ozone layer since is one of the few successful examples of collective action we can point to . So what’s going on?

Shivali adduces two statements which art first sight seem to contradict each other. Firstly, the sudden depletion of ozone is probably due to a sudden cooling at high altitude over the extreme Antarctic. The increase in stratospheric clouds begins to thin the ozone which overlies them, by processes which you can read about in the article. The second, quite rightly, is that August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded. To quote Shivali

The average temperature last month was 16.96°C….. even higher than the previous record holder, July 2023, which had an average temperature of 16.95°C …..

So: is it getting hotter, or colder? Depends where. Essentially, greenhouse gases heat up the Troposphere, that thick dense lower layer of the atmosphere where we all live. This actually acts like a blanket, wrapping in the heat on the surface, while stopping it rising up into the stratosphere. The result is a cooling at higher altitudes-which would exactly cause the Ozone effects which have been observed.[2] [3]

Somewhere this week some of you will meet a strongly opinionated person who has skimmed the headlines, absorbed them uncritically, bounded to conclusions, and declared to you: “ De Antartic is gettin’ cooler, mate! That PROVES there’s no such fing as global warmin!” Now you know why they’re wrong.

[1]The ozone hole has burst open: Analysis reveals how the opening over Antarctica has ‘increased sharply’ this month – and is set to get even bigger | Daily Mail Online

[2]Chabrillat et al. (2025), Modelling stratospheric composition for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Geoscientific Model Development (Copernicus Publications

[3]WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion (2022

#global warming #ozone layer #stratosphere #troposphere #cliamte change #fossil fuels #antarctic #ocean

Why El Niño is like smoking cigarettes

Our showcase today, (in three languages, folks!),is two stories on the soi disant Super El Niño which is now forming in the Pacific, and which threatens to wreak havoc on the entire planet. One from the Guardian, [1]the other from Nature Briefing,[2] they’re basically factual accounts, very well written of course, and we have linked them below, But what we really wanted to ask was: what has all this got to do with global warming? We don’t know about you, gentle readers: but every so often we still come across the sort of person who attributed last summer’s infernal heat to El Niño: as if that somehow gave them an excuse not to face the facts about climate change. (the fact that some of these sceptics are also enthusiastic smokers may, or may not, be pertinent) So in order to fulfil our mission to inform and enlighten we attempted a little fact checking. And we came up with two of them: quite enough for one day’s assimilation by anyone’s standards.

1 El Niño is a natural phenomenon, as this link to Wikipedia makes clear[3]

2 But human induced climate change is having a profound effect upon its behaviour, as this 2021 review from Nature Reviews Earth & Environment makes equally clear.[4] As global temperatures rise, the Pacific Ocean holds more heat, which means each El Niño event starts from a warmer baseline and therefore pushes global temperatures higher than it used to. Recent research shows that warming oceans are amplifying the intensity and global impact of strong El Niños, helping drive record‑breaking heat years.

Medical doctors warn of the consequences of smoking tobacco. People who ignore the warnings or deny their admonitions will face certain consequences. Climate scientists, meteorologists and others are like doctors to the whole planet. We may now see the consequences of ignoring them for far too long.

[1]Here’s Bill McGuire for the Guardian The incoming ‘super’ El Niño will create chaos around the world – and we are far from ready for it | Bill McGuire | The Guardian

[2]And here’s Nature Briefing How this year’s El Niño will be different

This year’s El Niño weather event is forecast to reach unprecedented strength. It’s also the first strong El Niño to form in the eastern (rather than central) Pacific since the late 1990s, when the Earth was cooler. These facts, combined with the climate crisis, make El Niño’s effects hard to predict, experts say. So far, the impacts resemble those of previous strong events, and are far-reaching:Drought conditions in Central America have slowed shipping traffic on the Panama Canal.The anchovy harvest at a fishery off the coast of Peru, one of the most productive in the world, was cancelled early as fish fled warm waters.Tens of millions of people in parts of southern and East Africa are predicted to experience acute food insecurity because of dry weather combined with high prices for fuel and fertilizer.Nature | 7 min read

Read more: The United Nations cultural organization UNESCO has released an online tool for heritage professionals and policymakers to prepare for the impact of El Niño on cultural sites.

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation

[4] [4] Nature Revie#PAws Earth & Environment (2021) — “Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate”

# El Niño #Pacific ocean #southern ocean #climate #meteorology #global warming #geography #food #flood #drought #hurricane

GutSee Health: pioneering therapies may help conserve precious antibiotics

Whatever else we write about, the problem of microbial antibiotic resistance, is still the raison d’etre of our humble little blog. So while we’re always on the look-out for stories about new antibiotics, new phage techniques, what have you, we sometimes cast our net a bit wider. To bring you news of techniques which, while currently aimed at other problems, offer us the hope that they may one day be relevant to the fight against antibiotic resistance. That thereby potentially help us eke out existing stocks of antibiotics, and maybe even buy us time to develop a few more. Morever, when the pioneer is one of those brave new companies we laud so often, then we are all the more eager. So today we are showcasing the work of UK based GutSee Health. Not because they currently work to replace antibiotics per se: but because they represent a way forward which we think one day might.[1]

At present Gutsee are working on treatments to contend with such intractable problems as Irritable Bowel Syndrome and Inflammatory Bowel Disease. At present these disorders are not primarily treated with antibiotics. But if you examine their website, you will discover the formidable expertise they are developing in applied Artificial Intelligence, microbiome engineering, and phage technologies. Techniques not to replace antibiotics: but to potentially reduce the need for them, thereby conserving them for another day. Look at this from their website, with special attention to the bit which we have emphasised:

…… we are building sophisticated machine learning models to decode phage–bacteria interactions and predict therapeutic responses. This enables us to design targeted interventions that remove harmful or pro-inflammatory microbes—whether in the gut or in wounds*—while preserving healthy ecosystems.

*our emphasis

Wounds, gentle readers. You know that’s where the danger of antibiotic resistance is real: and you know why. Industrial or military wounds are notoriously vulnerable to infection, and antibiotics have long been essential in managing them. But every surgical intervention is really the imposition of a wound, albeit in a good cause, whether to cure appendicitis, deliver a baby by caesarean, transplant a heart-or carry out another of the myriad medical processes which make our lives sustainable at all. We need every possible alternative we have to address these problems, because time is growing short. It is our prediction that the work of GutSee, and many heroic pioneers like them may have a very large role to play. We wish them every possible success.

Coda We couldn’t help thinking that the above is an advertisement for a high education, high pay economy with all the public infrastructure needed to support those things. But that’s for another sort of blog on another day.

# microbial antibiotic resistance #phage #AI #start up #Gutsee #irritable bowel syndrome #health #medicine #sugery #wounds

Round up: intelligent slime moulds, intelligent Cavepersons, Artificial Intelligence, Emotional Intelligence-and more

Photomicrograph of a human blood by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0

Enlightenment in the Skies The brother and sister combination of William Herschel and his sister Caroline was one of the most formidable astronomical combinations of the eighteenth-century or any other, and it’s good to see them honoured. Here’s The Guardian

Milky Way at the dining table: Bath art show celebrates 18th-century brother and sister astronomers | Astronomy | The Guardian

Nature or nurture? Before you blame your family for everything that has gone wrong read this (some anglophones may need their translator apps, as its from El País)

Así moldea el ADN nuestra forma de ser: más de 1.200 variantes genéticas ayudan a determinar la personalidad | Ciencia | EL PAÍS

Moulding intelligence Ok we know certain animals like apes, orcas and crows can be quite bright. But slime moulds, yet? Alright, read this article if you want to learn something surprising.

‘This is dangerous’: slime moulds and the bitter debate over the nature of intelligence | | The Guardian

And talking of intelligence: Maths always stumped us-but not open AI, as the Guardian reports; it seems to have solved the Navier Stokes maths problem that has baffled its human peers for decades

OpenAI claims to have solved maths problem that stumped humans for decades | Mathematics | The Guardian

More woes for farmers In our blog of Wednesday last we wrote of the many troubles that farmers face. Apparently we forgot to include this chilling one reported by Nature Briefing :Almost half of farmers are being poisoned

There are more than 400 million cases of unintentional, acute pesticide poisoning every year, finds a new estimate — meaning that an estimated 46% of farmers worldwide are being poisoned. The analysis suggests there are 11,000 pesticide-related deaths annually, with nearly 60% of these in India. And that’s not taking into account long-term health impacts that are not immediately felt, such as a possible link with Parkinson’s disease.

The Guardian | 6 min read
Reference: Frontiers in Public Health paper

Denisovan deer hunters Nature Briefing is so very good that we could fill this round-up with stories thy put out. So, despite the above, we couldn’t resist this one about our Denisovan relatives, who looked like they were brighter even than the average slime mould, called Fossil Trove sheds new light on Denisovans

A collection of fossils and artefacts recovered from an abandoned quarry in southwestern China has given researchers an unprecedented glimpse into the lives of ancient humans called Denisovans. The items suggest that Denisovans — who lived at the site for at least 30,000 years — crafted bone tools similar to those of the Neanderthals, and were skilled hunters of animals such as deer. “This site’s the full package,” says archaeologist Ben Marwick. “It’s the first site that we have with a long, rich sequence that’s uniquely associated with Denisovans.”

Nature | 5 min read
Reference: Nature paper 1 & paper 2

Quote of the week:

The heart of the prudent getteth knowledge; and the ear of the wise seeketh knowledge. Proverbs 18:15

#Herschel #astronomy #planets #slime moulds #intelligence #pesticides #agriculture #paleontology #denisovans

Ok, we might be exterminated by AI superentities-but what’s the soundtrack going to be?

Photo by u0410u043bu0435u0441u044c u0423u0441u0446u0456u043du0430u045e on Pexels.com

According to a leading AI safety researcher there is now a 10% chance that humanity might be wiped out by Artificial Intelligence, [1] A delicious irony we say, considering that humans created it. OK, it might happen, it might not (90% still seems a big safety margin), but if it does we need to consider: what music will be most appropriate to our final hours on this planet which we have done so much to destroy? Intelligent readers will immediately suggest the sombre theme from James Cameron’s superlative Terminator series of films: but that’s too easy. So our challenge was to find ten others which might fairly join its chiliastic tones Here are our possibilities, in reverse order

10 The Doors The End Strong and portentous on lyrics, it nevertheless needed Coppola’s visual effects to deliver that final thanatocratic punch between the eyes. Makes the cut-just.

9 Schubert Piano Trio in E-flat, D.929 Credit where it’s due-it was the excellent Griffin Johnson of Armchair Historian fame[2] who used this to accompany the French army on its final fatal march to Sedan in 1870.Nothing in our view so well captures the queasy sense of outward splendour and pride masking internal rottenness and decay. Schubert people, hold on-your boy is coming up again.

8 David Bowie Five Years When Bowie wrote this glam rock tribute to forthcoming apocalypse he was probably thinking more of nuclear Armageddon than a self-inflicted IT crash. Still relevant, as are many of the works of a man who was as much trenchant social critic as musician.

7 Kraftwerk The Robots. Well, this one had to go in somewhere-so why not number 7?

6 Nine inch Nails The Day the World went Away Nothing in our view so captures the mood of the camera panning over a rubble strewn wasteland after its creators have vanished: a small masterpiece of harmony and deeply nihilistic lyrics.

5 Schubert Symphony No 8 in B minor “Unfinished” It’s the first movement we reference here, with its disquieting sense of a man near the end, recounting his few happinesses and his many more regrets and sorrows. Refugees from the 1970s will be disappointed to learn that Schubert did not leave this one unfinished in order to drink a pint of a well known brand of cold lager.

4 Mahler Symphony Number 1, 3^rd/4^th movements. For us, the steady drumbeat that begins the third movement originally suggested the march of the barbarians on Rome( we were big on that Empire once) But now the whole development suggests a much wider civilisational crash, combined with haunting yearnings for the better days of the past. As our personal choice, it narrowly nicks it over the Adagietto from No 5. Close run thing though.

3 The Talking Heads Life during wartime When the AI machines make the final push, there’ll probably be a bit of fighting. We think certain scenes from the Terminator franchise may capture much of the essence of the situation. In which case Byrne’s brisk lyrics about no more parties and discos, combined with its harsh throbbing beat, sum up matters rather well, in our humble opinion.

2 Mozart Requiem in D minor, Confutatis and Lacrimosa Not only is this the one which firmly puts the Man from Salzburg into the same top three category as Bach and Beethoven, its plea for forgiveness and redemption may implore God to listen to our final lament, even if the machines don’t.

And the winner is:

1 Gary Numan — Are ‘Friends’ Electric Nothing in our view quite captures the steady rhythmic march of unstoppable machines towards their sinister destination. Every time we hear about The Deadly Threat from Artificial Intelligence, this is the one that really springs to mind, a glittering harbinger of apocalyptic destruction. And a worthy winner of our top slot.

But this is just our opinion, gentle readers, our modest little choices. If you can think of something better, or someone we have missed, please let us know. Just remember to do it quickly.

Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI ‘could kill all humans’ – BBC News

Armchair History TV

#Artificail intelligence #extinction #humanity #IT #robots #music #computers #futurology #history

Antibiotics: troubles down on the Farm

“Hey-Farmer! Leave them antibiotics alone!” we might be tempted to sing to the tune of the popular ditty by the Blue Floyd, Pink Mink, or whatever they were called. At first glance, it seems clear: the misuse of antibiotics in farming is one of the major causes of increasing antibiotic resistance. According to the lucid report from Alliance to Save our Antibiotics, over 70% of antibiotics are put into farm animals, not humans. This folly began in the 1950s as a way to boost yields. But it has since become a way to keep the poor beasts in unhealthy conditions which no creature should endure , All as a profit driven source for more food-and what has that done but make us all more portly and obese?( we speak from experience)

Which might lead the unthinking reader to create a new outgroup called “farmers” and start blaming them for all the world’s ills. But it would be wrong. Firstly, the only time we had to deal with farmers for professional reason, we found them to be intelligent, courteous and incredibly knowledgeable about their profession[2] Secondly, for all but the richest, the farming life is one of incredible struggle: a year battling prices, weather, disease, thieves and much sorrow besides, all for one day when a years crop is put into a pitilessly unpredictable market to a price that can hardly ever match the sheer value of the effort of the labour that produced it. When the name of the game is short term survival, no one, and we mean no one, should blame any farmer anywhere for reaching for the nearest short term solution to get them through to the next day.

And there are hundreds of professions like this where the margins are tight, and survival is provisional: in construction, sales, distribution…..where people are almost forced to take a narrow, focussed approach to their task. Is it really fair to ask them to look at the broader picture on matters like antibiotics? Are you really surprised when your electrician,-an intelligent likeable chap- compares the complexities of Brexit to negotiations over gymnasium membership? Is the real problem societal and economic? For more than forty five years now the we have created a society where economic activity is focussed relentlessly around short term goals and intense competition. It may get brick walls built more quickly. But it does not foster collective wisdom, nor the ability to process large societal decisions with anything approaching informed opinion. One day there may have to be a reckoning with this model, if only on the grounds of survival.

[1] Alliance to Save Our Antibiotics | Antibiotic Overuse in Livestock Farming

[2)Keir Hartley The Historic Petworth Herd Sussex Local Nov 22 pp 17 -19

#antibiotic resistance #agriculture #farming #economics #society #Brexit

Should we abolish the Profession of Economics?

Poor old Economists! Back before the financial crash they seemed to run the world. They certainly seemed to staff half of all the Banks, Governments, Political parties and NGOs across most of it. Peace and order are what you want, they told us. Free markets, the lowest possible taxes, the lowest possible barriers to the free flow of goods, capital and movement. In this they were essentially following the doctrines of Adam Smith whose Wealth of Nations [1]was the founding principle of their Science. And rightly so: because it all seemed like pretty good advice at the time, didn’t it?

Trouble came on two fronts. The first is causal. The really profound shifts in human wealth are created by new discoveries in Science and Technology. (LSS passim) At the very time that Smith was writing his masterwork, technologists like James Watt were creating new machines of such fundamental power that they absolutely transformed the wealth of the nations that adopted them. However much you argue about taxes, multipliers and currency reserves, none of this can hold a candle to the economic leap unleashed by Maxwell’s equations or the work of Watson and Crick in Biotechnolgy. Goal down to the economists. Even worse these days: no one is listening to them. Intellectually, their prescription of how to get to a better life is impeccable. But in a world inhabited by Homo sapiens, the ethnic identity card will always trump the economic prosperity one. It’s a point we have often made here: and the evidence for it has been overwhelming ever since 2016. Are the poor practitioners of the “dismal science” doomed like so many Cassandras [2] to ever prophesy the truth-and be for ever ignored? Economists nil, Humanity 2 : game over?

But before we really go on to call for the abolition of a profession which has actually nurtured some of the brightest minds in History (Ricado, Keynes, Hayek, Stiglitz………) remember this. The technological changes we talked about take many years, decades even, to be fully adopted. Meanwhile, there’s still and economy to run, so you are going to need a few experts who can tell you what is happening here and now. Who can provide a reality check tell you that adopting ethno-nationalist and populist policies are never good for the long term health of an economy, however good they feel at the time. If you want some detail, this report contains abundant evidence[3] We prefer to offer the example of that Uber ethno nationalist Adolf Hitler: his policies didn’t exactly lead to prosperity much for anyone, neither at home nor abroad, did they? Perhaps we really need more economist not less. Especially in countries which are now adopting ethne nationalist solutions with relentless enthusiasm

[1] Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Edited by R. H. Campbell, A. S. Skinner & W. B. Todd. Liberty Fund, Indianapolis. ISBN: 978-0865970069 (two‑volume set).

[2] Aeschylus The Oresteian Trilogy Penguin 1959

[3]Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph. “Populist Leaders and the Economy.” American Economic Review 113(12) (2023): 3249–88. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20202045.

#economics #populism #science #technology #finance #wealh #identity politics #adolf Hitler #tariffs #immigration #history

Friday Night: How about an Alice Springs, a shorter version of the Singapore Sling?

We’ve often waxed lyrical here about the Singapore Sling, that delicious mix of gin, cherry brandy, orange and lemon juices and of course Angostura Bitters, with ice and soda water in a long glass. (LSS 23 4 21 et seq). Trouble is; the whole thing can be a bit big and the temptation to squeeze in extra shots when no one’s looking and thereby get yourself absolutely plastered is all too strong.

So what if we offered you a mini, slimmed-down, easier to make version, which dispenses with the cherry brandy, thereby vitiating the potency of the mix? If this concept lights up your bar sign, then you are looking for the Alice Springs, the smaller, lighter cousin of the good old SGS.

Method (freely adapted from The Ultimate Cocktail Book by Hamlyn) Put six ice cubes into a shaker add one measure of lemon juice, 1 measure of orange juice and ½ teaspoon of grenadine. Now in go the usual three measures of gin and 3 drops of angostura bitters. Shake to mix and pour, with the ice, into a medium size tumbler.You may want to top up with sparkling water, but the need should be minimal. A single slice of orange or lemon makes a fine decoration, and a straw will do no harm

Well there’s a little time saved. We hope you use it well this weekend

#drinks #cocktails #alice springs #singapore sling

Round up Slowing Traffic, polishing phages, climate qualms,Falklands Futility and Malvinas Mamarracho

Photo by Jan-Rune Smenes Reite on Pexels.com

Calming England’s motor city: Visiting London the other week, we suddenly noticed how clean it looked and how safe was the traffic. The Guardian thinks traffic calming is here to stay, as this piece about Birmingham, our second city makes clear

Dear culture-war motorists, look to the future. We’ll all be driving at 20mph soon | Christian Wolmar | The Guardian

Phage gets DNA makeover one base at a time explains Nature Briefing. Regular readers of our blog will realise our admiration for any advance in understanding bacteriophages, as it must assist our long term interest in treating microbial antibiotic resistance

Researchers have created more than 44,000 variants of the well-studied bacteriophage virus ΦX174 to determine the effects of mutations at nearly every single one of its DNA letters and amino acids. Most mutations were detrimental to the virus’s survival, but a handful boosted its fitness, often for reasons that were unclear. Cutting-edge AI models trained to identify harmful mutations struggled to predict the consequences of each change, which underscores the need for more high-quality experimental data to power these models, the team says.

Nature | 5 min read
Reference: bioRxiv preprint (not peer reviewed)

Denying reality Despite the heat this summer, despite the evidence of science, some people still seem to deny the seriousness of Climate Change-and some even its reality. Here is a survey of their latest efforts: but we suspect their efforts will grow increasingly futile, as you will see if you read the following snippet

From ‘psyops’ to ‘hysterical hysteria’: how GB News and Talk TV lost their cool in the heatwaves | Climate science scepticism and denial | The Guardian

Northern Ireland: already halfway to clean energy. In the year to June 2026 53% of that region’s energy came from renewables, improving on a trend that was already well set. Here’s the BBC

Renewable energy in NI reaches record level – BBC News

Falklands Futility / Malvinas Mamarracho Both sides claim there are vast fields of oil close to these wretched islands But the idea of Britain and Argentina fighting another pointless war over them is absurd. Why go to all that trouble over a resource which will be redundant in ten years’ time? We reserve the same contempt for each party’s pretentions to Sovereignty: for the islands’ ownership seems to be entirely in the gift of the President of the United States anyway. But if you must learn more, Sky News will give you an in on the whole sorry mess

Falklands speech reaction: UK responds to Argentina’s president saying ‘we need to recover’ islands | World News | Sky News

Quote of the week

“The future has many names. For the weak, it is the impossible; for the fearful, the unknown; for the brave, opportunity.”

Victor Hugo

#traffic calming #ULEZ #Birmingham #bacteriophage #cliamte change #global warming #renewable energy #Falkland Islands #Malvinas #Argentina

Thanks for all the thanks (sorry, we lack the technological skills to reply properly

We’ve been getting a lot of likes and comments lately, for which we are enduringly grateful. Sorry we can’t list our kind interlocutors -a full list would stretch too long, and to pick a few would be unjust. We attempt-sometimes- to reach your sites and blogs to reciprocate. But anyone who knows us will report that our IT skills are dire: we struggle to know where to click and where to write. But we do look at them, admiring their originality of thought and devotion to purpose. As for their design-some of them are beyond us the way the Artemis moon shot was beyond Magellan’s Victoria. Did you all do three years at the Slade school of Fine Art or Something? Anyway-keep ‘em coming, you are better than half the drivel that flits across our screens daily.

Above all we’re glad you recognise our main purpose; which is to say sensible things in a different way, and different things in a sensible way. And always to brighten up your tea and coffee breaks.

THE EDITORIAL BOARD