Short on antibiotics leads today, we’ve a double act of two good writers: Richard Partington and John Harris, both of the Guardian, on one of our other marottes: Political Economy. And both provide insights into that most ancient of human dilemmas: when do we accept that things are complicated, and when can we get away with treating them as simple?
Richard quotes that most sagacious of politicians, Alan Milburn who has been around the block a bit in public life “Everybody goes for the bloody easy solution, don’t they? You can’t just go for the easy solution, OK? There are no easy solutions, guys. None. They’re all hard.” Richard’s exhibitio princeps of simple answers to complicated questions is Brexit, now ten years past, and still affecting our daily life in ways large and small. Now, to say there was a case for Brexit is wrong: there were two very good ones. But they were utterly incompatible. One was made by mainly rich free market acolytes who wanted a low tax, low regulation, welfare light economy of the sort practiced in places like Singapore. The others, poor ex-industrial workers mainly, wanted that £350 million a year they had been promised bussed into the NHS: and of course strict immigration controls: both socialist ideals anathema to true believers in Liberal free markets. The result was a Brexit that has satisfied no one. Reliable research indicates that investment is down 18%, employment down 4%, and productivity down 4% compared with what might have been delivered if Britain had remained in the EU.
Harris takes on a question which has equally obsessed the current Right: falling birth rates, particularly in nations of western European heritage., The causes include female emancipation and education, the costs of raising children, and gloom about the likely prospects for any delivered into this fractious world. The result is an ageing population whose comfortable lifestyles depend on the labours of an ever- dwindling band of energetic youngsters. So, how do you reconcile this with a belief in individual choice? And-could it be solved by increasing the number of immigrants to fill the roles for which lightly-manned western societies can no longer provide workers? Moreover, if the trend to lower fertility has become world-wide(which it may well have done) should countries like Britain upend 100 years of beliefs and political allegiances and start inviting immigrants in? If so-when?
At which point we might throw up our hands, admit utter complexity has vanquished us again and retire leaving ourselves and our readers entirely baffled. Except-the Devil whispers in our ear-maybe simplicity is there all along, hiding under the complexity of competing policies, politicians, manifestoes and ideologies. The great forces of History are climate, disease, technology and economic. Understand these, and the complicated battles of the “ins “ and the “outs” become more comprehensible. Old LSS hands will recall how the Roman Empire survived because it facilitated a common trade area.[3] And fell because of uncontrollable changes in climate, and the arrival of mass pandemics.[4] That Britain’s hegemony was based on sea power, which declined when land power became more efficient [5]And nothing that any of the statesmen, priests, businessmen or soldiers in those countries could do would make any difference in the long run. In our own time, the technological challenge is clearly AI, and the climate one is too obvious to name. As for the pandemic-well it might be from some newly resistant form of bacteria. Maybe this blog has been about antibiotics all along!
[3]Davis, R. H. C. A History of Medieval Europe: From Constantine to Saint Louis. London: Longman, 1970. (Revised editions appeared later — notably the 3rd ed., with R. I. Moore as co‑author: Harlow: Longman, 2006 — but the classic standalone Davis is the 1970 Longman.)
[4] Harper, Kyle. The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017.
[5] Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House, 1987. (UK edition: London: Unwin Hyman, 1988.)
#pandemic #climate change #immigration #economics #demographics #history #politics
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