One of our self appointed tasks at LSS is to stand back and bring you ideas from people who are far more intelligent than ourselves. And not to get in the way!
Here are two pieces from Nature updates. One counsels that the whole corona trope is now so big, so complicated and so emotional that no one can understand it in its entirety. Especially conspiracy theorists and those grinding out hidden agendas, who have never seen a virology lab in their lives.
The coronavirus pandemic is “a problem that is now too big for any one person to fully comprehend”, argues science journalist Ed Yong in a long read about the factors in play. We struggle to master knowledge that is new to many of us: the definition of a ‘coronavirus’. The characteristics of this specific one, SARS-CoV-2, and the disease it causes, COVID-19. What the research on treatment and vaccines really means, and which experts and self-appointed experts we can trust. And how we can parse misinformation, shifting public-health advice and the uncertainty inherent in a fast-moving scientific landscape. The Atlantic | 26 min read
So for all those who assert that that there isn’t a virus, and it started in China/the USA/Russia/Droitwich, why not just take a rest from spouting your own uninformed opinions, and look at some evidence from someone intelligent? Like, just for a change?
To our latest followers and likes. The latest is a site called politics with CW, in the United States of America. They show a video analysing the statements of a Mr Donald Trump, who I believe is their President. If this is so, he follows in the tradition of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D Roosevelt. So, by analysing his words and statements, we can all learn ore about Logic and Deep Thinking. I suppose.
We at Learning, Science and Society are fascinated b y the way people learn. Don’t learn. And unlearn. Last year the UK, from where we sit now, spent £91.8 billion on education, which was 11% of its GDP*. If you add to that the amount spent on private education, professional training, all the various types of evening classes and so on, that’s a very, very great deal of money. How much value does a society get from all this spending. In a nutshell: how often does a piece of knowledge get transferred to from one person to another?
Let me give an example. Many years ago a friend of mine moved with his young family to one of the new villages springing up around the boom city of Cambridge in England (there’s that education word again). As did many, he joined the local football club: busy young executives need exercise. His team had mixed fortunes in their local league. But they tried hard, had practice every Wednesday evening, and were led by one of those enthusiastic types you find a lot in local clubs and societies. This one had made a study of football tactics and training, which he tried to impart to my friend and his teammates on Wednesday nights.
The Trainer had diagnosed that one of the reason for their bad results was a tendency to boot the ball away aimlessly in great long kicks, especially when danger threatened. There was no attempt to make passes or find a colleague: in fact it was very much the English style of the time.
The Trainer felt that the solution was close, directed passing, “playing the short ball.” And one Wednesday evening he drilled them endlessly in this. Everyone agreed; everyone bought in, as they say.
Came Sunday morning, and the first match in the new style of play. The other team kicked off, and attacked. The Centre Half of my friend’s team found the ball at his feet and in one second, BOOT, away he hoofed it to the centre circle. As if Wednesday night had not happened at all.
I hope I do not ruffle too many feathers when I assert that some central defenders are more noted for their qualities of strength and toughness rather than agility in any form. And that, as a psychological type, they form the rugged honest yeoman, don’t- waste- my -time -with- fancy- new- ideas attitude that is the bedrock of any human group. Many have even gone on to careers in management, or the Professions. Yet it must be admitted that this man seemed to have learned nothing, absolutely nothing from two hours of training. And that only three days before.
So what was going on? Why do some people learn some things, and others not? Did you have a good teacher, who made the information flow? Or did you do better in later life, perhaps in work training, where things were less academic? Did you have a difficulty to overcome? Why do girls seem to be outpacing boys? Why do some groups, especially boys, seem to despise learning?
We don’t know. We want your ideas. For us at LSS, there is no better or more interesting source of ideas than other peoples’ experiences. As the above example shows. Please contact us on the links shown, or via Facebook. We want to know
*UK Public Spending website ukpublicspending.co.uk
Professor of Economics at New York University Stern School of Business, who has also moonlighted for The International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.
And, apart from that?
He was the one who accurately predicted the crash of 2007-2008. When a thinker makes an accurate prediction, that’s the time to take them seriously. Like Einstein and light wave bending.
So what’s his latest prediction?
That there is going to be a rather large, unpleasant recession in the 2020s, in the form of a letter L. For falling off a cliff and then crawling painfully away from the bottom.
And how does he work that one out?
He’s got ten reasons. Do you want to hear them?
Well. It’s not as if I’ve got to go to workor anything, is it?
Nor will you, by the sound of it. Okay . Number one is debt default. Covid-19 has led governments everywhere to run up massive fiscal deficits, at a time when these were already becoming unsustainable. Paying them off will need more austerity. As households lose income, private sector debt becomes unsustainable, with inevitable defaults and bankruptcies.
But surely the natural cycles of the economy will unleash growth?
Well, there could be a brake here, which leads us to number two, the demographic time bomb. Many countries have ageing populations. But Covid-19 has shown that having an integrated efficient public health system is just as essential as an army. Both can be expensive. Which implies more borrowing and spending.
So-will I have to work until I am eighty three?
Well only if there is something for you to do. Covid-19 has unleashed a curious slack in both production (all our machines stand idle as no one can buy the things that they make) and demand (no one has a job making anything) Which in turn leads to a price collapse, and more insolvencies. This is our number three.
But, wow, a price collapse! I will have loads of money to spend!
Not if the currency is debased, because it won’t buy anything. At first governments will run monetarised fiscal deficits to avoid depression. But as more and more money is printed, inflation will follow. We could get stagflation, a slightly nostalgic number four.
What’s that?
Inflation, but no economic growth. It was quite fashionable in the nineteen seventies. Around the time of glam rock. In fact the Professor thinks that the supply shocks will lead to further declines in globalisation, making it inevitable. That leads us to number five.
You mean we’ve got five more to go?
Six, actually. And they are the ones that seem to really worry the good Professor. Number five is digital disruption. As a result of supply shocks , companies will source production home, away from cheap overseas suppliers.
That has to be good for jobs at home, right?
Not necessarily. If you bring production into a relatively high cost economy, the pressure is on for automation. You should no longer confuse output with jobs. Which leads us easily to number six-de-globalisation
At least some of these link together well
Lucky us! Roubini observes that this is already well underway in things like pharmaceuticals and food. As protectionism kicks in there will be restrictions on the flow of goods, labour, services and capital, among others. So economies shrink further, leading to number seven
Seven was never my lucky number! Alright, let’s have it.
He predicts a backlash against democracy. Numbers five and six can only lead to a scapegoating of Foreigners, and the rise of populists and dictators, which must lead to further restrictions on trade.
But everyone’s a foreigner to someone! Surely we can’t all be to blame!
Well in a way, we are, The Professor deals with those in number ten, below. But he wants you to go through numbers eight and nine first-war. He thinks all these problems will lead to rising tensions between the US and China (both are Foreigners) leading to certain increases in cyber warfare, (eight) with a possible deterioration into a conventional shooting war.(nine) Not good, if we are to deal with things like global warming. Which finally leads us to number ten, as I promised.
Ten? Ah, yes, we’re all to blame
Professor Roubini agrees with all the conspiracy theorists -up to a point. He thinks that Covid 19, HIV, SARS, MERS and H1N1 are man-made. Not dreamed up by diabolical conspirators in Labs, but as a result of our reckless over population, crashing into natural ecosystems, and poor public health and sanitation. He implies a real rethink in the way we do things generally.
And in the meantime?
Well, we could sing a song, How about Let the Good Times Roll?
Fans of our old Facebook blog (what’s Facebook?-ed) will recall a significant posting about how Artificial Intelligence was used to scour the databases of old papers to come up with a new class of antibiotic, called Halicin. We hoped that this team of workers would receive a Nobel Prize . God knows they deserve it.*
Could AI help to dig us out of this terrible hole we are in due to SARS-Cov-2? Especially, will the virus mutate, and if so, how? And if it does, will all these wonderful new vaccines stop working all of a sudden? Uh-oh.
There may be hope. We know that DNA contains “hotspots” where the chances of a mutation are higher. A Google search will give you lots on this, so I’ll include just one ref to give you a jumping off point.* Up to know, this work has mainly been the preserve of workers in fields like cancer and autism, but that’s fair enough, as we didn’t have a virus pandemic until this year.
But will it work for the RNA in a coronavirus? According to a post in Engineering.com by Vincent Charbonneau an AI start-up called Graphen are doing exactly that. Using data on whole genome sequencing from over 30 countries, they are using AI to plot how the virus mutates, spreads and propagates. This will lead both to better drugs, and predictions of the most harmful variants of the virus.
A thought occurs, albeit in the realms of Science Fiction. Can someone use AI to look at hotspots and map the future mutation potential of other viruses? What about other organisms, such as bacteria?
We await with anticipation.
*J Stokes R Barzailly J Collins et al A deep learning approach to antibiotic discovery CELL vol 180 pp 688-702 Feb 20 2020
It has always been our aim at LSS to bring up things which intelligent people might like to discuss.
So today, we present the work of Adam Tooze from the Guardian. It’s not that we revere every word Adam says. But sometimes someone like him puts the crucial questions so succinctly that we cannot ignore them. So read on, but before you do, look for the answers to these questions
1 There will be enormous debts remaining from this crisis. What will that mean for spending on defence, pensions and education, to name but a few?
2 Is there a moral obligation to repay debt? If so, how quickly? Do some moralists have other agendas?
3 Is the budget of a nation like that of a household?
4 What happens to GDP growth in nations that spend all their time paying back debt?
We note with pleasure an article by Alex Hern in the Guardian* about StarshipTechnologies, which is pioneering a new robot food delivery service in Milton Keynes. It’s the first of its kind in the UK. In a completely unscientific way, we cannot help but feel that their choice is shrewd: young demographic, big grids of wide streets, quite a high tech town anyway. Amazon, too, are pioneering their scout robots in Washington State, USA.
It’s interesting how you need a good crisis to bring out an idea whose time has come. The First World War saw enormous advances in aviation and chemicals technologies. The Second gave birth to leaps in information technology (think Turing) antimicrobials(think penicillin and mepacrine) and of course the jet engine. Romantics argue that the demands of the Space Race spawned both anti-stick frying pans and computer miniaturization. Whence cameth mobile phones, laptops, games and the plucky robots of Milton Keynes.
Former inmates of the Civil Service (by which we mean most Government Organisations) will, recall how new initiatives were so often buried in a culture of committees, existing practice and downright obstructionism. And we have sat long hours into the night listening to tales of how able private sector managers saw their ideas buried, burned or lost in the wind. Usually this came down to accountants’ balance sheets, and/or senior executives wishing for a few more years of comfy service in the old way, before they grabbed their pensions and ran.
It seems to take a big crisis, and the presence of a dangerous common enemy, to concentrate enough minds to make real change happen. The economic benefits of that change eventually outweigh the costs many, many times. So, how do we ensure real change is effected in “normal” times, assuming we ever get back to them? It is a theme to which we will return again.
Coda: we strongly suggest that you keep an eye on Alex Hern. We think he’s on to something generally
Long standing readers of Learning, Science and Society will recall how, as long ago as April 16th, we identified how leading virologist Maria Zambon had warned the world of impending doom as long ago as 2014.
We are pleased to note that she now sits on the Government’s SAGE committee , where top scientists advise our rulers on what buttons to press, levers to pull, and what’s just going on generally in the world of super infective microorganisms. It is clear from the foregoing that Professor Zambon’s advice will be sage, learned and prescient.
Learning, Science and Society 