On Monday we published a little blog (LSS 13 3 23) in which we hoped that UK PLC might be “turning the corner”  Maybe. Because we have links to two devastating articles, one from Tom Rees and colleagues for Bloomberg, and one from Martin Samuels from the Times, who paint a very different picture (Spoiler alert: you’ll need to jump the paywall for these, but we promise you; they’re worth it) [2] [3]

So why are we saying all this? Because the UK Finance Minister, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is presenting his budget today. And yes, he will be fiddling with all those tax-ey, demand-ey minutiae which Chancellors do from time to time. But we think he’s like a man playing with a toy yacht in the swimming pool on a cruise liner. Whichever way he sends his yacht, it’s ultimate destination will be determined elsewhere. But there is one thing he could try.

The Horizon scheme is not a nerdy 1970s TV show for scientists. It’s a vast collaborative network of researchers, awash with money and new ideas which could clearly make a long term difference to the UK’s dreadful economic performance. And scientists, business folk, anyone with a rational, patriotic interest in getting us all a little more money are screaming for it [4] Now we could wax lyrical about how changes in science seem to raise the general standard of the economy long term. The telescope, the steam engine, the computer (alright, I get it-ed) But if you want something a little more detailed, try this link from the IMF [1]

We’re hoping to follow up on this by getting some reactions from real time business experts. We promise to come back to you when we do. Meanwhile, Jeremy, if you’re reading this-it’s just a thought!

[1] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/10/06/blog-ch3-weo-why-basic-science-matters-for-economic-growth

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/a-lost-decade-worse-than-japan-s-threatens-to-change-uk-forever?utm

[3]https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/martin-samuel-brexit-failed-freedoms-uk-2023-gkftm2pgl

[4]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64840262

“Well, I believe the Moon is made of concrete!” Those dread words. No, not the moon, but “I believe”. Because as soon as you hear them, you know that your interlocutor has just closed off their mind to knowledge. That subtle blend, made in part from facts, logical reasoning and a tolerance for uncertainty limits which has made it possible for you to read this and probably live until you are at least 80-something almost unknown in the age of Faith. So, why do people choose Belief over knowledge and emotion over reason? Are they being completely perverse, stupid-or may there be other factors at play. Over the next few weeks we shall run a series of blogs and see what conclusions we can draw.

Have you ever heard of the Followers of Christ, a group of exceedingly devout Christians who live in Idaho in the United States of America? Jason Wilson of the Guardian will tell you a lot more. But to summarise: they’re one of those groups who don’t like scientific medicine. Germ theory. Anaesthetics. Antibiotics. Doctors. Hospitals. All that sort of stuff. The Followers of Christ believe, fervently, that religious faith will cure all maladies. How this belief played out in the lives of Brian Hoyt, Linda Martin and others you can read here. [1] [2] Be warned: bits are rather painful.

None of the this is actually to single out the Followers of Christ, who, otherwise, doubtless lead rather virtuous, worthy lives. And they are far from alone in their refusal to accept the conclusions of fact and reason. Clearly they would be be placed in great psychological danger by any refutation of their Belief. But equally clearly, that belief is not knowledge. Brian Hoyt certainly felt the difference.

So why be like that? Health care is astronomically expensive in the United States. Is faith based medicine a way to save money? We have to know, because the battle between knowledge and belief is being fought every day on the internet, and so far there is no evidence our side is winning. Let’s see how this one plays out.

we were unable to find any website that clearly and unambiguously originated from the Followers of Christ in order to balance this piece. Instead, the nearest we could get was this Wikipedia link [3]

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/13/followers-of-christ-idaho-religious-sect-child-mortality-refusing-medical-help

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/global/2018/sep/22/religious-faith-or-child-abuse-a-new-documentary-investigates

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Followers_of_Christ

#faith healing #religious right #republicans #knowledge #health #medicine

For those of us who hoped that the overthrow of the Shah of Iran might usher in a new era of hope, the last forty years or so have proved a cruel disappointment. The aspirations of a polite and civilised people, heirs to one of the oldest civilisations in the world, are thwarted each way they turn. No flats, no money, no free education. And-no justice, the very foundation stone of the 1979 revolution, which might have made all else worthwhile.

So, how stable is the regime? Will anything change, and what might take its place? We’ve two pieces to get you started today[1] [2] The one by Christopher de Bellaigue for the Guardian is a little old (December ’22), but gives a a good account of the psychological pressures boiling underneath. The one by Afshin Shahi for The Conversation is intriguing. Who exactly is carrying out all these poisonings, and why?

Whatever happens, it matters. Iran sits on a strategic crossroads. It nestles up close to three major powers: India, Russia and China, and across a major oil route in the Persian Gulf and the Shatt-al-Arab. The fall of the regime might be welcomed: but what takes its place? As we’ve confessed above, our track record here doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. But the implications both for finance and security are profound indeed. We watch with fascination. And dread.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/irans-moment-of-truth-what-will-it-take-for-the-people-to-topple-the-regime

[2]https://theconversation.com/iran-poisoning-of-thousands-of-schoolgirls-piles-more-pressure-on-islamic-republic-struggling-for-survival-201310?utm

#iran #oil #finance #ayatollah #shah #sunni #shia

Serious historians of the Decline and Fall of the British Empire of date the beginning of its demise to the crisis of 1878. [1] This was the year that the Bank of England, the whole British financial system, its whole cast of mind, failed utterly to rescue the Glasgow shipbuilders and their banks. The very idea of the state or any other institutions acting for a general good was anathema to Victorian minds, schooled on a mantra of low taxes, ultra-free markets and Proud Finance. Slowly but inexorably Britain lost its lead it in what was then the cutting edge technology of that era, and the decline of economic and political supremacy had begun. It’s been pretty much downhill ever since.

Which is why we think the British Government’s decision to rescue the UK victims of the SVB Bank collapse, via the good offices of HSBC, is significant. It’s not what they’ve done, it’s the way they’re starting to think. Get these two killer quotes, from this excellent report by Kalyeena Makortoff of the Guardian

first from Chancellor of the Exchequer (that’s the senior Finance Minister) Jeremy Hunt

I said yesterday that we would look after our tech sector, and we have worked urgently to deliver that promise,”

then from Dom Callas of start up lobby group Codec

the government deserves huge credit. From the very top, to HM Treasury who understood the challenge and gripped it, to the huge number of civil servants who have likely not slept since Friday. They have saved hundreds of the UK’s most innovative companies today.”

Governments! Civil Servants! Saving jobs! Just like in Europe! They’ll be making us drive round in Audis and drinking Kronenbourg next! Oh, horrors!

There is a long, long way to go. The gin-sodden certainties of the golf club bar are still too prevalent. The Daily Mail still has a veto on too many areas of our national life. And, as we write, the risks of a systemic collapse cannot be discounted, as the recent travails of Signature Bank show. [3] But our rulers have been forced at last to recognise a truth long known in places like South Korea and Germany. If there is to be a common good, it needs to be serviced by the collective efforts of Banks, Governments, Civil Servants and people who actually make things. Just don’t call the The Blob.

[1] Hutton, W: The State we’re in Jonathan Cape 1992 see pp 119-122

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/13/hsbc-buy-silicon-valley-banks-uk-tech-startups

[3]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/business/signature-bank-collapse.html

#industrial policy #banks #industry #uk government #SVB Bank #Signature Bank #technology #innovation

stories we thought were interesting in this week’s media

Is everything illusion or what? The utter strangeness of the quantum world view has always disquieted us- we struggle to understand the basics of the basics. That’s why we thought these three lovely articles from The Conversation might help those like ourselves, The Confused, that is.

https://theconversation.com/great-mysteries-of-physics-1-is-time-an-illusion-201026?utm_medium=email&ut

https://theconversation.com/quantum-mechanics-how-the-future-might-influence-the-past-199426?utm_

https://theconversation.com/four-common-misconceptions-about-quantum-physics-192062?utm_medium=e

Let’s clear the air A while ago we published pieces here, and in certain newspapers, about the dangers of air quality indoors. Our angle was a little different, but we were clearly on to something, however indirectly! Nature Briefings: The Fight for indoor Clean air

Bars, gyms and other indoor venues in Belgium will soon be required by law to meet air-quality targets and display real-time measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations — a proxy for how much clean air is piped in. It’s just one of an unprecedented number of efforts worldwide to make indoor air safer. Huge challenges lie ahead — retrofitting existing buildings will be an immense, costly undertaking. But countries are set to save billions by reducing the harmful effects of carbon monoxide, mould spores, cancer-causing fumes, particulates and respiratory pathogens.Nature | 12 min read
Read more: We need a proper science of indoor air, write scientists including Christopher Whitty, the UK government’s chief medical adviser (Nature | 11 min read)

Free Speech, innit? Our old friend Dave Watford and his associates are always bad-mouthing someone they call “Woke Lefties” for censoring free speech. But here’s the boot on the other foot-and some!

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/mar/10/david-attenborough-bbc-wild-isles-episode-rightwing-backlash-fears

Solar Powered slugs TED talks have always been a magnificent gateway to anyone who wants a really intelligent take on the world about us. Our researchers were intrigued by this tale of a sea slug which has copied plants, and runs on the power of the Sun alone.

The best genres of music evoke a time and a place. None better than Tango, that lonely, melancholic music of old Buenos Aires, when just about everyone was an immigrant and mired in nostalgia. This arrangement of of Ventanita Florida by Roberto Goyneche and and Nestor Marconi captures that ambience perfectly (Spanish speakers will understand why we took such care to spell Marconi correctly!)

#argentina #tango #sea slug #pollution #air quality #quantum physics #rewilding

When we think of the 1920s we remember it for all the wrong reasons. Jazz Silent movies. Giant luxurious hotels and ocean liners. Flappers. Blizzards of tickertape blowing through the concrete canyons of Manhattan to greet some now long-forgotten hero. And we remember them every time we mix a cocktail, those convenient fruit drinks designed to hide the taste of gin, and so evade the inconvenient restrictions of Prohibition. For this was the first American decade, and although you could get a drink legally in London or Paris, those war shattered economies could never compete with the cultural and economic dominance of Uncle Sam.

And so, looking back from our own set of twenties, tonight we shall showcase a selection of the very most stylish and elegant of 1920s best. all with the aid of an excellent website called A Couple Cooks [1] which our hardworking research team have prepared for you. And what a list! There’s several of your old stalwarts like the Tom Collins, Gin Fizz, White Lady, French 75 and Sidecar. If you want something with real period flavour, how about a Hemingway Daiquiri or a Mary Pickford? And a couple of oddities such as the Hanky-Panky and the Bees knees, for which you need real honey! Perhaps you could have told a policeman it was a cure for a sore throat or something.

The site has a marvellous collection of multicoloured photos, recipes and general good cheer. So we urge you to dive in and and sing along with the old refrain

“Keep away from Bootleg hooch, when you’re on the spree/Take good care of yourself, you belong to me”

[1]https://www.acouplecooks.com/1920s-cocktails/

Hemingway #cocktails #1920s #mary pickford

Back in the far off days of 2020, a locked down team at LSS had already suggested the Swiss company Climeworks as one of the good guys in the global warming saga. (LSS 4 June2020) Now their pioneering work in carbon capture has received international recognition as Matt McGrath of the BBC explains [1]. Of course tropical rain forests were the best way to capture CO2, at least on land. But Mr Bolsonaro and his friends have chopped them all down, so the sorts of solutions offered by Climeworks and other pioneers may be out last best hope.

For us at LSS there’s a number of lessons here. Firstly you should never give up hope. Secondly brains and education pretty much are that hope, so any policies which promote more schools and universities will pay off in the long run, (ignore what it says in the Daily Telegraph) Thirdly this is not a magic bullet, as we still need to much about the seas, which is where the real battle to save the planet will be won or lost.

But it’s a start, and that’s something.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64886116

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64889284

https://climeworks.com/actnow?utm_source=bingBrand&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=BS-AO-World-en-Brand&utm_term=climew

#global warming #climate change #carbon capture #climeworks

Immigration! That word! We said it! Now wait for the neuralgic responses to come rolling in. For they will, they surely will. It’s like mentioning sex in a deeply Christian family around the year 1955. And like sex, it won’t go away even if everyone stops talking about it.

We’ve published a number of blogs on the matter here, even a little mini-series last year. The other day, someone in the office suggested they add up to our very own LSS Theory of Immigration. Sounds a bit portentous, doesn’t it? Anyway it goes something like this: Immigration is caused by people moving from nasty places (poverty, wars, oppression) to nicer places (money). It’s been going on for a very, very long time. It is a typical example of a free market brokering supply and demand, in this case labour. Er…that’s it.

It is in this light that the recent UK Government initiative on channel crossings ought to be considered. [1]Will it work? Only time will tell. In the meantime, opponents and supporters of the scheme should ask and answer these questions:

1 Many people are deeply frightened by these arrivals. These fears are particularly concentrated in certain social layers. If the crossings are not stopped, how will these fears be allayed?

2 Many illegal immigrants are finding work rather easily. Shall people and companies who employ them be hunted down and prosecuted?

3 During the US experiment with prohibition, every attempt to prescribe the flow of illegal alcohol failed as did every get-tough initiative, because the demand for booze was so great. Do you really think this will not happen again?

4 The War on Drugs-see prohibition above

5 Why does the UK receive such  high numbers of immigration from countries like Albania and Syria and such low numbers from places like Switzerland and Denmark?

6 How could rich countries promote programmes of economic improvement to cut the flows of migrants?

If our soi-disant Theory of Immigration is correct, the UK Government’s new initiative will fail. Leaving even more domestic anger, drownings and disillusion. Only time will tell.

[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64883462

#immigration #sex #suella braverman #english channel #migrants #emigration #united nations

We at LSS are nothing of not optimistic, and always ready to try new ideas when a big problem is looming down on us. That’s why we’ve always nurtured a soft spot for bacteriophages as one extra approach to the antibiotics resistance crisis. Well, there’s some good news. Professor Martha Clokie is to head up the first bacteriophage library at the University of Leicester in the UK. She’s the right person, having been a phage expert for years. Phages are not the whole answer, but they have to be part of it. and a little lateral thinking has been long overdue.

We don’t want to get all carried away, but there are signs that the antibiotics problem is starting to be addressed seriously, in many ways. Lets give two and a half cheers and hope it long continues.

Hannah Devlin has an excellent summary in the Guardian [1]

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/mar/03/increase-use-of-phages-to-combat-antibiotic-resistance-urges-uk-scientist

#antibiotic resistance #pandemic #bacteriophage #university of Leicester #medicine

Every so often we still come across the odd person who asseverates; “climate change isn’t real, anyway it’s not caused by humans, and anyway. it’s all a Big Communist Conspiracy designed to stop the people who fund our think tank from getting rich!” So, just in case you are passing through the Dog and Duck, or getting your car mended and you meet someone like that, we thought you might like to make use of a website designed to help you. You won’t get less Communist than the Royal Society (it was around when Karl Marx’s great grandparents were a twinkle in their fathers’ eyes) or more scientifically astute. It will even let you ask the following questions

1 a)What was the concentration of CO₂ in parts per million in the atmosphere before the nineteenth century? b)What was it in 1959? c) And what was it in 2019

answers a) it was 260- 280 ppm for the previous 10 000 years It never rose above 300ppm for the whole of the ice ages, a period of over a million years b 316ppm c 411 ppm

2 Name three gases which trap heat and by how much has their level risen since pre industrial times

answers: Carbon dioxide 40% Methane 150% Nitrous oxide 20%

3 How do you explain the changing ratio of C¹⁴ to C¹² in atmospheric gases?

answer: it comes from fossil fuels

4 By how much has the temperature risen since 1900. Can this be explained by natural variation?

answer 1^OC No, it can’t

5 Is water vapour a driver or an amplifier of climate change?

answer: amplifier

There’s plenty more here [1] if you are interested But these questions should produce interesting answers. And remember the old saying: extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Let them come up with that.

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate-change/

#climate change #global warming #royal society #evidence #carbon dioxide