If the world is reduced to ashes by a nuclear war between the United States and the many peoples who hate it, any surviving historians may well want to ask; “why?” Most of the answers trail back to the Iraq war of 2003, and the utter collapse it entailed. We could waste paragraphs on the waste of lives. The squandering of treasures. The unleashing of ISIS and a myriad of other groups, all in the name of a “War on Terror”. The chain of disasters which followed- such as the financial crash, Brexit and Trump. But we want to concentrate on the biggest, most awful miscalculation of all.

Jonathan Freedland is one of the most thoughtful, humble and intelligent of all the columnists we follow. (rare qualities indeed in a journalist, but let that pass for now) He is, and always has been, incredibly well-connected. And in those years preceding the Awful Catastrophe, he was buzzing around London and Washington. Bumping up against some of the third-rate minds with first-rate egos who caused the disaster. We’ve two of his columns for you here, one written yesterday and one in 2002. Get that, 2002. Before the Awful Catastrophe. Some prescience, huh? [1] [2] For this was the passage that gave us goosebumps:

Some of the most sharp-clawed hawks are even hailing this as the first step in a much grander, global strategy: to paint the planet in stars and stripes, stretching US domination from Baghdad to Beijing. Once Saddam is out of the way, they whisper, Washington can turn to China. The aim: to keep America as the world’s sole superpower for decades to come.

Blinded by hubris, the Neocons around Bush, and their cheerleaders in the media, ignored one key fact. Their adventure sent a message; “one day, we’ll come for you“. In their self-confident universe, no centre of power, no possible alternative to Washington, was to be permitted. Not in Brussels, Moscow, Beijing, nor anywhere else. And so, as the war began, others took note, and began to arm. They may indeed be unpleasant regimes, staffed with unpleasant people. But from their point of view: who can blame them?

It is hard to convey to young people now the sense of a peaceful world, with limitless possibilities that existed between 1989 and 2002. Maybe the American unipolar moment was a Good Thing. But it is over now. As for why, those historians of the future might loo start their investigations in the years 2001 -2003 and ask why the following gentlemen* took the decisions they did: George W Bush. Donald Rumsfeld. Dick Cheney. Richard Perle, Rupert Murdoch and Douglas Feith. Thanks, boys.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/17/iraq-war-spies-labour-invasion-conflict

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/mar/13/labour.ira

#2003 #iraq war #george w bush #neocon #dick cheney #saddam hussein #ISIS #Al Queda #war on terror

• we entirely exempt Condoleeza Rice from any blame as we consider her to be a harmless, well intentioned woman who seemed to be bereft of agency in this whole sorry mess

Nostalgists are always telling us how much better everything was in the past-simpler, ordered, more law-abiding and clean. A view much beloved of certain elderly and slightly dim journalists who write for Sunday newspapers, for example. Before you believe them, you would do well to consider the infamous gin epidemic of the eighteenth century, which nearly destroyed society, and inspired one of the most famous artworks of all time: Hogarth’s Gin Lane

The history which we present today How a Gin Craze nearly destroyed 18th-century London by Harry Sword is so well written and fun to read that we will do nothing here but implore you to click on the link [1]. Really. Go on. Now.

And remember. Tonight as you sip your martini, or gin tonica, or Singapore sling (it’s still the wrong side of Easter for Pimms) remember this. What you are drinking was once the crack cocaine of its day. Puts all that Palladian in perspective, eh, what?

https://www.vice.com/en/article/53jj7z/how-a-gin-craze-nearly-destroyed-18th-century-london

#gin #hogarth

stories that caught our eye

Covid: It’s a racoon dog’s life Two for you today on the mysterious origins of Covid-19, one in English, one in Spanish, Latest culprit is the Racoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides). We remain to be convinced by any of them at this stage.

https://elpais.com/ciencia/2023-03-17/una-nueva-pista-genetica-apunta-a-los-perros-mapache-del-mercado-de-wuhan-como-origen-de-la-pandemia-de-covid.html

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/17/covid-19-origins-raccoon-dogs-wuhan-market-data

China Crisis You won’t understand modern China until you have considered the terrible Opium Wars of the nineteenth century, which ushered in a century of instability and humiliation for that proud civilisation. Since 1949 their overwhelming cry has been “never again!”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-02/modern-china-and-the-legacy-of-the-opium-wars/10172386

Venus Volcano Are other worlds in our solar system geologically active? If so, what are the implications for finding life? Nature answers the first question here

Scientists think they’ve spotted a volcano erupting on Venus. Radar images taken 8 months apart by NASA’s Magellan spacecraft in the early 1990s show changes to a volcanic vent that suggest an eruption or magma flow. Venus is covered in volcanoes, and this is some of the strongest evidence yet that at least one of them is still active. Venus doesn’t have plate tectonics that could drive volcanic activity, so it could be caused by heat released from radioactive elements.Nature | 5 min read
Reference: Science paper

History rethought We’re encouraged to think of History in neat periods. You know the sequence:The Stone Age, the Iron Age, the Romans, the Anglo Saxons, Medieval, Tudors, Industrial Revolution, Rock ‘n’ Roll, Hippies, Punk, reality cooking shows….and so it goes. Each major new era is a fresh start, wiping the slate clean, so to speak. But reality was more complicated, as this amazing discovery from England shows Romans and Anglo Saxons rubbing along cheek by jowl. Did they realise they’d failed a history exam?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-64917979

The Last Emperor? One of the best western films that tried to make sense of the Chinese experience was Bertolucci’s The Last emperor (1987) Here’s a slice of David Byrne (yep-he of Talking Heads) as he tries his take on oriental themes for the title sequence

#chine #covid-19 #racoon dog #venus #geology #romans #anglo saxon #opium wars #british empire

It’s not that we blow our own trumpet. Or that we like to say “told you so” with a smug leer. But when someone much cleverer than us shows we did; and when that someone is called Make UK, we do feel entitled to give in to the urge to polish our credentials. A bit. So how come?

Yesterday we published a blog which suggested that the UK joined the European Horizon programme. Apart from a group of men who were mending the roof, and called us “TRAYTURS!”, reaction on the whole was favourable. With one reservation “it’s too sciencey, this blog! Of course scientists want to join something like Horizon. What about the practical people who actually do the work?” So we thought we’d ask some.

You can’t get more practical or economically useful that Make UK[1] It’s a sort of business association for manufacturers in this country. An example of one of those utterly professional but unsung organisations , entirely free of the Government which represents a truly healthy economy and society. Manufacturing has shrunk dreadfully in this country since 1979, but it still employs more than 3 million people and contributes to our prosperity out of all proportion to its size. So we thought we’d approach them and ask what they thought of our theory. They very kindly sent us a speech from one of their events, from which we gratefully extract the following.

It’s also vital that the UK retains its place in the EU’s Horizon Programme and hopefully last week’s agreement will ensure this. Horizon has always been one of those areas of the EU Budget where the UK get more out than it puts in. Of the nearly 7000 principal recipients of European Research Council grants under the Horizon 2020 programme around a fifth were to UK institutions. We cannot afford to let the UK’s participation slide as a result of quite frankly pointless and unnecessary points of principle about the minor role of the European Court of Justice. This is simply irrelevant to those of us in the real world

….. Currently, manufacturing accounts for around 10% of GDP but, if we can build it back up to 15%, it would add a remarkable £142bn to the UK economy, create many high skill high value jobs and contribute substantially to the levelling up and re-balancing we need to see.

Firstly, LSS is not just a blog retailing other peoples’ news stories. We have started to bring you original stuff ourselves, a trend which we hope to continue. And secondly-these people are not ivory tower scientists, but practical men and women for whom cash ultimately has to be the bottom line. We still say: there is hope for a good life for people in these islands. Provided that from now on they take the time to make the right decisions.

[1]https://www.makeuk.org/about

#uk #manufacturing #economy #EU Horizon

Somaiya Begum was twenty. She was a student of biomedicine at Leeds Beckett University. If that’s not promise, we don’t know what is. Instead, she was murdered with an 28 cm steel bradawl, and her body left to rot. The motive? She had refused to marry a much older man from Pakistan, chosen for her by her family. Not her choice, they decided. [1] Yesterday her uncle Taroos Khan was convicted of the murder. Some uncle!

But monsters like Khan are the tip of an iceberg. Forced marriage is one of the commonest forms of human trafficking (that’s “slavery” to us). Of the 40.3 million slaves around the world, 15.4 millions are in forced marriages according to Human Trafficking Search [2] There’s hundreds, of not thousands of predators like Khan prowling the world now. Of all the threats to female emancipation, this is the most insidious, because it is so common. And so accepted in some cultures.

LSS readers, you know where we stand. The emancipation of women is the emancipation of us all. Who you marry, who you sleep with, goddammit, is the most basic choice of all. And this time you can do something about it. Try clicking on the website our girl [3] where you can get  facts, figures and media streams and see if you can help. It could be your daughter, sister or friend who’s next. Please!

[1] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11862225/Uncle-murdered-niece-honour-killing-refused-marriage-cousin-jailed-life.html

[2] https://humantraffickingsearch.org/forced_marriage/

[3]http://ourgirl.co.uk/

#somaiya begum #taroos khan #arranged marriage #forced marriage #women #trafficking #bradford

On Monday we published a little blog (LSS 13 3 23) in which we hoped that UK PLC might be “turning the corner”  Maybe. Because we have links to two devastating articles, one from Tom Rees and colleagues for Bloomberg, and one from Martin Samuels from the Times, who paint a very different picture (Spoiler alert: you’ll need to jump the paywall for these, but we promise you; they’re worth it) [2] [3]

So why are we saying all this? Because the UK Finance Minister, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is presenting his budget today. And yes, he will be fiddling with all those tax-ey, demand-ey minutiae which Chancellors do from time to time. But we think he’s like a man playing with a toy yacht in the swimming pool on a cruise liner. Whichever way he sends his yacht, it’s ultimate destination will be determined elsewhere. But there is one thing he could try.

The Horizon scheme is not a nerdy 1970s TV show for scientists. It’s a vast collaborative network of researchers, awash with money and new ideas which could clearly make a long term difference to the UK’s dreadful economic performance. And scientists, business folk, anyone with a rational, patriotic interest in getting us all a little more money are screaming for it [4] Now we could wax lyrical about how changes in science seem to raise the general standard of the economy long term. The telescope, the steam engine, the computer (alright, I get it-ed) But if you want something a little more detailed, try this link from the IMF [1]

We’re hoping to follow up on this by getting some reactions from real time business experts. We promise to come back to you when we do. Meanwhile, Jeremy, if you’re reading this-it’s just a thought!

[1] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/10/06/blog-ch3-weo-why-basic-science-matters-for-economic-growth

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/a-lost-decade-worse-than-japan-s-threatens-to-change-uk-forever?utm

[3]https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/martin-samuel-brexit-failed-freedoms-uk-2023-gkftm2pgl

[4]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64840262

“Well, I believe the Moon is made of concrete!” Those dread words. No, not the moon, but “I believe”. Because as soon as you hear them, you know that your interlocutor has just closed off their mind to knowledge. That subtle blend, made in part from facts, logical reasoning and a tolerance for uncertainty limits which has made it possible for you to read this and probably live until you are at least 80-something almost unknown in the age of Faith. So, why do people choose Belief over knowledge and emotion over reason? Are they being completely perverse, stupid-or may there be other factors at play. Over the next few weeks we shall run a series of blogs and see what conclusions we can draw.

Have you ever heard of the Followers of Christ, a group of exceedingly devout Christians who live in Idaho in the United States of America? Jason Wilson of the Guardian will tell you a lot more. But to summarise: they’re one of those groups who don’t like scientific medicine. Germ theory. Anaesthetics. Antibiotics. Doctors. Hospitals. All that sort of stuff. The Followers of Christ believe, fervently, that religious faith will cure all maladies. How this belief played out in the lives of Brian Hoyt, Linda Martin and others you can read here. [1] [2] Be warned: bits are rather painful.

None of the this is actually to single out the Followers of Christ, who, otherwise, doubtless lead rather virtuous, worthy lives. And they are far from alone in their refusal to accept the conclusions of fact and reason. Clearly they would be be placed in great psychological danger by any refutation of their Belief. But equally clearly, that belief is not knowledge. Brian Hoyt certainly felt the difference.

So why be like that? Health care is astronomically expensive in the United States. Is faith based medicine a way to save money? We have to know, because the battle between knowledge and belief is being fought every day on the internet, and so far there is no evidence our side is winning. Let’s see how this one plays out.

we were unable to find any website that clearly and unambiguously originated from the Followers of Christ in order to balance this piece. Instead, the nearest we could get was this Wikipedia link [3]

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/13/followers-of-christ-idaho-religious-sect-child-mortality-refusing-medical-help

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/global/2018/sep/22/religious-faith-or-child-abuse-a-new-documentary-investigates

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Followers_of_Christ

#faith healing #religious right #republicans #knowledge #health #medicine

For those of us who hoped that the overthrow of the Shah of Iran might usher in a new era of hope, the last forty years or so have proved a cruel disappointment. The aspirations of a polite and civilised people, heirs to one of the oldest civilisations in the world, are thwarted each way they turn. No flats, no money, no free education. And-no justice, the very foundation stone of the 1979 revolution, which might have made all else worthwhile.

So, how stable is the regime? Will anything change, and what might take its place? We’ve two pieces to get you started today[1] [2] The one by Christopher de Bellaigue for the Guardian is a little old (December ’22), but gives a a good account of the psychological pressures boiling underneath. The one by Afshin Shahi for The Conversation is intriguing. Who exactly is carrying out all these poisonings, and why?

Whatever happens, it matters. Iran sits on a strategic crossroads. It nestles up close to three major powers: India, Russia and China, and across a major oil route in the Persian Gulf and the Shatt-al-Arab. The fall of the regime might be welcomed: but what takes its place? As we’ve confessed above, our track record here doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. But the implications both for finance and security are profound indeed. We watch with fascination. And dread.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/irans-moment-of-truth-what-will-it-take-for-the-people-to-topple-the-regime

[2]https://theconversation.com/iran-poisoning-of-thousands-of-schoolgirls-piles-more-pressure-on-islamic-republic-struggling-for-survival-201310?utm

#iran #oil #finance #ayatollah #shah #sunni #shia

Serious historians of the Decline and Fall of the British Empire of date the beginning of its demise to the crisis of 1878. [1] This was the year that the Bank of England, the whole British financial system, its whole cast of mind, failed utterly to rescue the Glasgow shipbuilders and their banks. The very idea of the state or any other institutions acting for a general good was anathema to Victorian minds, schooled on a mantra of low taxes, ultra-free markets and Proud Finance. Slowly but inexorably Britain lost its lead it in what was then the cutting edge technology of that era, and the decline of economic and political supremacy had begun. It’s been pretty much downhill ever since.

Which is why we think the British Government’s decision to rescue the UK victims of the SVB Bank collapse, via the good offices of HSBC, is significant. It’s not what they’ve done, it’s the way they’re starting to think. Get these two killer quotes, from this excellent report by Kalyeena Makortoff of the Guardian

first from Chancellor of the Exchequer (that’s the senior Finance Minister) Jeremy Hunt

I said yesterday that we would look after our tech sector, and we have worked urgently to deliver that promise,”

then from Dom Callas of start up lobby group Codec

the government deserves huge credit. From the very top, to HM Treasury who understood the challenge and gripped it, to the huge number of civil servants who have likely not slept since Friday. They have saved hundreds of the UK’s most innovative companies today.”

Governments! Civil Servants! Saving jobs! Just like in Europe! They’ll be making us drive round in Audis and drinking Kronenbourg next! Oh, horrors!

There is a long, long way to go. The gin-sodden certainties of the golf club bar are still too prevalent. The Daily Mail still has a veto on too many areas of our national life. And, as we write, the risks of a systemic collapse cannot be discounted, as the recent travails of Signature Bank show. [3] But our rulers have been forced at last to recognise a truth long known in places like South Korea and Germany. If there is to be a common good, it needs to be serviced by the collective efforts of Banks, Governments, Civil Servants and people who actually make things. Just don’t call the The Blob.

[1] Hutton, W: The State we’re in Jonathan Cape 1992 see pp 119-122

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/13/hsbc-buy-silicon-valley-banks-uk-tech-startups

[3]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/business/signature-bank-collapse.html

#industrial policy #banks #industry #uk government #SVB Bank #Signature Bank #technology #innovation

stories we thought were interesting in this week’s media

Is everything illusion or what? The utter strangeness of the quantum world view has always disquieted us- we struggle to understand the basics of the basics. That’s why we thought these three lovely articles from The Conversation might help those like ourselves, The Confused, that is.

https://theconversation.com/great-mysteries-of-physics-1-is-time-an-illusion-201026?utm_medium=email&ut

https://theconversation.com/quantum-mechanics-how-the-future-might-influence-the-past-199426?utm_

https://theconversation.com/four-common-misconceptions-about-quantum-physics-192062?utm_medium=e

Let’s clear the air A while ago we published pieces here, and in certain newspapers, about the dangers of air quality indoors. Our angle was a little different, but we were clearly on to something, however indirectly! Nature Briefings: The Fight for indoor Clean air

Bars, gyms and other indoor venues in Belgium will soon be required by law to meet air-quality targets and display real-time measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations — a proxy for how much clean air is piped in. It’s just one of an unprecedented number of efforts worldwide to make indoor air safer. Huge challenges lie ahead — retrofitting existing buildings will be an immense, costly undertaking. But countries are set to save billions by reducing the harmful effects of carbon monoxide, mould spores, cancer-causing fumes, particulates and respiratory pathogens.Nature | 12 min read
Read more: We need a proper science of indoor air, write scientists including Christopher Whitty, the UK government’s chief medical adviser (Nature | 11 min read)

Free Speech, innit? Our old friend Dave Watford and his associates are always bad-mouthing someone they call “Woke Lefties” for censoring free speech. But here’s the boot on the other foot-and some!

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/mar/10/david-attenborough-bbc-wild-isles-episode-rightwing-backlash-fears

Solar Powered slugs TED talks have always been a magnificent gateway to anyone who wants a really intelligent take on the world about us. Our researchers were intrigued by this tale of a sea slug which has copied plants, and runs on the power of the Sun alone.

The best genres of music evoke a time and a place. None better than Tango, that lonely, melancholic music of old Buenos Aires, when just about everyone was an immigrant and mired in nostalgia. This arrangement of of Ventanita Florida by Roberto Goyneche and and Nestor Marconi captures that ambience perfectly (Spanish speakers will understand why we took such care to spell Marconi correctly!)

#argentina #tango #sea slug #pollution #air quality #quantum physics #rewilding