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The dual news of vaccines coming over the horizon from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech give reasons to be cheerful, as Ian Dury would have it. But it will take months to work up the manufacturing and dosage capacity. In the meantime there’s a lot of sick people out there who need treatment. So we are pleased to offer two small rays of hope to get on with.

Mouthwash- a surprise kill

Aisha Zaid of Sky News has an intriguing story about how cetylpyridinium chloride (that’s CVC to the ordinary Joe) can wreak terrible mortality on the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Where to find CPC ? In your humble bottle of mouthwash. The sort of news to cheer Donald Trump at one of his press conferences-there’s plenty of mouth to wash.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-mouthwash-can-kill-coronavirus-within-30-seconds-study-finds-12134289

_{We thank Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for this lead}

Don’t inflame the situation

As very schoolchild will tell you, one of the terrible problems for Covid-19 sufferers is the “inflammation storm” as the body tries to react to the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in its midst. We understand this to be in part due to the complement system of the blood, part of the body’s natural defences. Bryan Paul Morgan of the Conversation discusses a drug which blocks the C5 protein of this system, bringing new hope to sufferers everywhere. It’s called ravulizumab. The downside is that it costs $6400 a dose. So make sure your country has a good health service, or you’ll soon be putting your house up to mortgage again!

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-treatments-keep-your-eye-on-anti-complement-drugs-they-look-promising-149775?

_{We thank Mr Gary Herbert of Buckinghamshire for technical advice with this blog}

#ravulizumab #cvc #Sars-coV 2 #covid-19 #coronavirus #donaldjtrump #nhs #cytokinines

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The advent of supercomputers, artificial intelligence and and real stress tested algorithms gives us opportunities to understand the world in ways that our grandparents could never have dreamed of. Already they are proving their worth in things like weather forecasting and epidemiology, turning in great results in influenza and Ebola mapping. With Covid-19 the situation is problematic, partly because there’s so much emotional and economic baggage riding on every decision.

Today we are going to offer two pieces for your perusal. Both are critiques of the models used to understand the pandemic. We would like to stress that both the writers and the scientists who created the models are intelligent honest individuals of the highest integrity, driven by facts and a search for the truth. Unlike some of the sneering critics, who seem to have very different agendas. They’re good articles, but for us the real point is different.

Nature* points out the enormous potential for crossover, by using techniques developed in meteorology to help epidemiologists. Adam Kucharski in the Guardian* points out that bringing several different models together has enormous benefits, as the work of one group complements each of the others. In other words if you put effort into developing some good honest research, or a clever piece of technology, someone somewhere will also get the benefit. It’s facile to state how Kepler benefitted from the solid research of Tycho Brahe, or Watson and Crick from the advances in crystallography made by others. A society that values science for its own sake will eventually grow rich. A society that does none at all, because of tax cuts, is going in a different way.

Nature: Forecasters can learn from climate models

Epidemiologists predicting the spread of COVID-19 should adopt climate-modelling methods to make forecasts more reliable, say computer scientists. The researchers have spent months using a powerful supercomputer and techniques that are used to stress-test climate models to audit CovidSim, one of the most influential models of the pandemic, which helped convince British and US politicians to introduce lockdowns to prevent projected deaths. The analysis shows that, because researchers didn’t appreciate how sensitive CovidSim was to small changes in its inputs, their results overestimated the extent to which a lockdown was likely to reduce deaths. But the model correctly showed that “doing nothing at all would have disastrous consequences”, says chemist and computer scientist Peter Coveney.
Nature | 6 min read
Reference: Research Square preprint

The guardian:here’s why we need covid models,evenif they’re controversial

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/11/covid-data-imperfect-scientists-projections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CovidSim

#covidsim #neilferguson epidemiology #covid-19 #computermodels

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Football fans will still recall the life and times of Paul the Mystic Octopus (26^th January 2008-26^th  October 2010) the underwater inhabitant of Oberhausen Sea Life Centre in Germany. Paul correctly called the results of four out of six of Germany’s matches in the Euro 2008 tournament and a whopping seven out of seven in the 2010 World Cup.

All luck? Aren’t invertebrates all supposed to be dim? Aren’t humans supposed to be the clever ones overall, while cetaceans like dolphins are the Einsteins of the seas? Well you may be in for a shock. According to philosopher and scuba diver Peter Godfrey Smith, Cephalopods (octopuses, squid and cuttlefish) are:

“an island of mental complexity in the sea of invertebrate animals“

Captive ones can squirt water to put out light bulbs or at people whom they dislike. They have as many neurons overall as dogs-or three year old children. Except theirs lie in diffuse nets across their whole bodies, rather than exclusively concentrated in brains as in vertebrates.

Intelligent writers like JBS Haldane and Isaac Asimov have hinted at the intellectual capacities of out eight-legged chums, but only now is it being properly followed up.   Here Philip Hoare reviews  Godfrey Smith’s book The Octopus-the evolution of intelligent life (William Collins 2017). Once again, has an evident truth been staring us in the face for hundreds of years?

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/15/other-minds-peter-godfrey-smith-review-octopus-philip-hoare

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus

we thank Dr SP Day of Norfolk for today’s story.

#octopus #cephalopod #intelligentlife #marineconservation

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With all the breathtaking news and turnarounds from politics, we thought we’d suggest a few more calming things this week.

Remember a guy called Donald J Trump and how hydroxychloroquine was going to be a quick cure for Covid-19? Except it turned out to be not quite so simple. One of the great curses of our age is that if enough people state something on the internet, it takes on a de facto truth of its own. Here Nature reproduces a fascinating piece by Adam Rogers in Wired. Warning-a slightly longer read than normal, but well worth it. Hope, Hype and Hydroxychloroquine-nice title!

Hydroxychloroquine is a time-tested treatment for malaria, a failed drug candidate for COVID and one of the pandemic’s most notorious political footballs. Starting with the drug’s origin as a traditional remedy in Peru, Wired explores the laundry list of clinical trials that struggled to test it in an atmosphere of distrust, its role in the Surgisphere scandal and the collision between science and the White House.
Wired | 32 min read

As winter sets in, thoughts of romantics among us may be turning to the coming spring, daffodils, lambs gambolling in green fields and everything nicely back to normal with a lovely coronavirus vaccine safely under our belts. Sadly, Sarah Pitt of The Conversation foresees a few bumps in the road…

https://theconversation.com/back-to-normal-by-spring-are-we-expecting-too-much-from-the-first-covid-19-vaccines-149342?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20November%2013%202020%20-%201785117322&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20November%2013%202020%20-%201785117322+CID_b2e17575ae29b1efa1f5a5f553ba206f&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Back%20to%20normal%20by%20spring%20are%20we%20expecting%20too%20much%20from%20the%20first%20COVID-19%20vaccines

Where, oh where, did Sars-Cov-2 originate, and why, oh why? Tensions between the worlds two great superpowers only muddy the waters. Anyone with a science background will love reaching back in time and space to solve a tricky problem. If we do, we may be able to solve the next one. Here’s Nature, WHO Takes on fraught search for source:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released its plan to investigate the origins of the COVID pandemic, starting in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first identified. It’s a daunting task. Nailing down the animal origin of a virus can take years, if it can be done at all, and the investigation will have to navigate the highly sensitive political situation between China and the United States. “Finding an animal with a SARS-CoV-2 infection is like looking for a needle in the world’s largest haystack. They may never find a ‘smoking bat’,” says virologist Angela Rasmussen.
Nature | 5 min read

And finally….anyone who has a reasonable telescope or even a pair of good binoculars will know the calming power of the Night Sky. When it’s not drowned out by light pollution! Here Nick Dunn of Lancaster University makes a heartfelt plea for dark clear night skies-and it might even save us energy too! This one’s from The Conversation.

https://theconversation.com/cities-need-to-embrace-the-darkness-of-the-night-sky-heres-why-149129?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%201786017330&utm_content=The%20Weekend

#lightpollution #climatechange #astronomy #hydroxychloroquine #donaldjtrump #sars-cov-2 coronavirus #covid-19

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This week’s cocktail is adapted from one given to us by the well known bon viveur, raconteur and all round English Gent Mr Stephen Smith of Berkshire. For legal reasons, we have adapted it slightly.

The Witch’s Heart (adapted)

A subtle, sophisticated blend, designed to create a genuinely spooky atmosphere for things like Halloween parties, fancy dress or a big night in watching old Hammer movies on the last surviving VHS in Southern England. So, lockdown permitting, fly your broomstick down to Waitrose and purchase the following for your potion:

apple brandy or apple vodka; grenadine; shimmery blackberry liqueur; Martini glass

Get some  ice and powder it.

The spell:Put 1 measure of apple brandy and 1 measure of blackberry liqueur in a shaker. Add 1 ice cube and shake for a few seconds to chill. Now work quickly, as follows:

Add 1 tsp of powdered ice to the martini glass. Pour contents of shaker into glass, top up with more blackberry liqueur. Now add one teaspoon of grenadine, which should sink through the mix adding a “bleeding” effect for all you horror fans. Finally sprinkle a little more powdered ice on top and serve.

Recommended music : Witchcraft as sung by Frank Sinatra

Smiffy, as we used to call him, was one of the best mentors whom we have ever worked for. His own recipe is a lot more exciting than this, but we have to a be a bit cautious on a public blog, and we know he and you will understand.

#cocktails #applebrandy #franksinatra #witchcraft

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As the Roman Republic began to falter in the first century BC, its democracy began to flicker on and off like a failing computer. For hundreds of years there had beene free elections and people took turns in offices. Then came the first Dictators, Marius and Sulla. They passed, and everyone seemed relieved. But gradually undemocratic periods became more and more common as triumvirs and duumvirs struggled for power. Finally only Octavian was left. Quickly he proclaimed himself Emperor and Augustus, and there was never another free election again.

Last week (LSS 4 November 2020) we stated that although Donald Trump may have been defeated, and we still don’t know that for certain, the forces that brought him to power remain. They are the same conditions as prevailed in the late Roman Republic. The same immense sums of big money driving politics. The same rage of a vast impoverished proletariat, bewildered by the rapid social and economic changes around them. The same yearning for a Strong Man, so that we never have the bother of thinking again.

George Monbiot of the Guardian is very much alive to these dangers; we link his piece below. The essence of his piece is the headline: ” The US was lucky to get Trump-Biden may pave the way for a more competent autocrat.” And in this piece, George links to a piece by Zeynep Tufecki in The Atlantic who looks at a list of the runners and riders in the race to be our new Master (sadly, Britain’s fate is inexorably tied to the United States). It’s a thoughtful piece, but for us the key take-away was:…

The situation is a perfect setup, in other words, for a talented politician to run on Trumpism in 2024. A person without the eager Twitter fingers and greedy hotel chains, someone with a penchant for governing rather than golf. An individual who does not irritate everyone who doesn’t already like him, and someone whose wife looks at him adoringly instead of slapping his hand away too many times in public. Someone who isn’t on tape boasting about assaulting women, and who says the right things about military veterans.…………..

Chilling? At this point we remember the words of the Irish poet WB Yeats who, in The Second Coming, wrote:

The darkness drops again; but now I know   
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,   
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,   
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

We have taken this last quote from the website of the Poetry Foundation, a major source of cultural riches

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/11/us-trump-biden-president-elect

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/trump-proved-authoritarians-can-get-elected-america/617023/

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43290/the-second-coming

#donaldtrump #joebiden #theatlantic #authoritarian #autocracy #2024 #wbyeats

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We at LSS are proud to have stumbled across a great unsolved mystery. Perplexing. Irreducible. Unsolvable. Scary. Its not the two sets of data we present, it is the perplexing gap between them. The mystery of the differential human response to a single stimulus, the disease Covid-19, caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2.

Data Set One: One group of humans began to research the genetic structure of the virus. Using the most advanced technology and laboratories they began to develop things called vaccines, one at least of which is showing high promise at the time of writing. (Oh yeah-another lot risked their lives caring for all the victims, but we won’t go into that now).

Data Set Two: Another group went to Brighton, England on the eve of the lockdown. We don’t know exactly where in Brighton, or what they did. But at about 22 15 pm a mass brawl broke out among them, requiring the attendance of considerable numbers of Police Officers and no doubt other emergency workers (Oh yeah-perhaps some of these were needed for the Covid-19 pandemic, but we won’t go into that now) There’s a couple of links to news stories for you below, but a considerable number of legal processes will be underway, so we must respect the rules of sub judice. We use the BBC and the Brighton and Hove News.

The Mystery: We at LSS find ourselves at a complete loss to explain this huge gap in response to the same environmental stimulus. We ask you, gentle readers to help us. Already some of your suggestions have rolled in and they include the following:

1 The dispute in Brighton was between different groups of scientists, contesting their different theories of virology and epidemiology (No evidence for that-ed)

2 Some of the attendees at the event in Brighton mistook others for specimens of the virus, and instantly flipped to a “fight or flight response” as describes by pioneering ethologists like Konrad Lorenz. (only natural-but aren’t viruses a bit small?-ed)

3 Someone looked at someone else’s bird in a funny way (how many times have we heard that one?-ed)

Help us, gentle readers? Have we missed something? Is there another explanation for this mystery, which must surely rank among the greatest of all time? What vital piece of information are we lacking which would help us solve it? We await your further responses with anticipation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-54822699

Man in serious condition after lockdown eve brawl

#covid19 #lockdown #coronavirus #unsolvedmysteries #sars-cov-2 #montpelierplace #massbrawl

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Bertrand Russell once observed that the ones who shout loudest are the ones who have the most inner doubts. They’re covering something up. That’s why we at LSS take the Whig approach to progress. You build reasoned coalitions based on dialogue, and bring as many people with you as you can. Even when there is urgent action to be taken. No, especially when there is urgent action to be taken.

There are signs that something like that is happening in the UK. The Campaign for a Climate and Ecological Emergency Bill is a genuine attempt to pull together multiparty support for completely new legislation. We ask you to look at the links below, starting you off with their about page.

So far most of the backing is coming from smaller and out-of-power parties, however well intentioned. In England at least you get nothing done without the support of the Conservative Party and its Press. But there are hopeful signs: alongside Labour, SNP and Greens, among other backers is the name Jim Shannon of the DUP. No one has ever accused the DUP of lefty trendy anti capitalism wokeness, to say the least. It seems the organisers of the campaign have found a way to talk to the other side, and that alone compels us at LSS to beg our readers to give them a fair hearing. After all, waht’s the point of being a Conservative if you can’t even conserve a few green fields from some brutalist developer?

We’ll leave you with the words of Jim Shannon “The CEE Bill is a golden opportunity to fix our climate and restore our natural world. I will do all I can to help enact the Bill before COP26. The Bill offers the Government a viable route to tackle the environmental crisis, and I call on the Prime Minister to ensure it passes into law as soon as possible.”

https://www.ceebill.uk/about

https://www.ceebill.uk/pr-2020-11-06-climate_and_ecological_emergency_bill_receives_backing

#CEEbill #globalwarming #climatechange #extinction

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In our last piece on British carmaker Bentley, we tried to post a link to a Guardian business leader article. “Bentley is leading the charge to batteries”. As noted Buckinghamshire landowner Mr Gary Herbert has pointed out, we made a mess of the link. Here it is again, with apologies:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/08/bentley-is-leading-the-charge-to-batteries-british-carmakers-must-join-it

We at LSS have in the past been compared to “two of the leading men in Hollywood History.” It may not surprise attentive readers that the two men in question were Laurel and Hardy.

#bentley #batteries #hybrid #crewe #luxurycars

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We at LSS candidly admit we will never be able to afford a Bentley. But we have always had a strong admiration for the designers and engineers of top class cars, because they’re are always pushing to the limits. In this spirit we want to list a couple of Guardian articles on the efforts made by Bentley to turn their entire range over to electric by 2030. We’re linking both the leader and Jasper Jolly‘s coverage.

But this is not a motoring column; we think there are two deeper lessons here. Firstly, we think it gives an answer to the age old question-what’s the point of rich people? Look at this from Jasper’s article:

Bentley is particularly suited to quickly changing to electric technology, because bigger margins as a luxury carmaker mean it can absorb the higher cost of batteries

It’s always been the same for luxury brands; they pioneer the technologies which become standard for everyone. If you drove a 1964 Rolls Royce, you would find that the makers were pioneering all sorts of things like electric windows and automatic transmission which we ordinary folk now take for granted. The very existence of demand for high quality goods draws out the best in all sorts of disciplines from materials science to leatherware, and so it has always been.

But we think there is a deeper lesson. The engineers at Bentley have to respect facts and data to succeed. You can’t have a tantrum just because the melting point of steel is too low for your wishes. Or throw armed supporters on to the streets to contest the laws of motion. Well you can, but you won’t stay in business long. History shows that societies can ignore truth and facts for a while by using force. But in the long run they have to drift into decline as their scientific and technological skills must decline. Supporters of Donald Trump take note.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/08/bentley-is-leading-the-charge-to-batteries-british-carmakers-m

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/05/bentley-to-stop-making-petrol-cars-by-2030-and-go-fully-electric

#bentley #electriccars #batteries #technology #donaldtrump