Long-suffering readers of LSS will recall our little blog of April 20 2020, wherein we drew attention to the terrible risks of what might happen if the Earth’s magnetic poles suddenly “flipped” and north became south. Using access to the best sources, we adduced that it would start gradually. that there would be a period of instability lasting for years and decades, but that eventually all would settle down again. But with a few less humans! Because that during that time all of our satellites, IT systems, power generation and navigational systems would go “down”, as they say in the computer industry. Remember- or were you too busy with your Easter eggs?

The last flip was over 780 000 years ago, so statistically one is due any time now. One of the key signs would be a gradual, but noticeable weakening in the field. Now researchers at Liverpool University have found evidence that this may be happening in a large area of the Southern Hemisphere called the South Atlantic Anomaly. According to researchers Yael Annemiek Engbers and Andrew Biggin, the field down there is now so weak that it is noticeably affecting the behaviour of overflying satellites. There seems to be a key patch of the inner earth, about 2889 km down that has completely de-aligned from the main contours of our magnetic field. Worryingly, it has now been growing for over 250 years.

As befits good scientists, the researches point out that there is a chance that the phenomenon may be caused by long developing processes in that particular region of the earth’s core. There is always a null hypothesis, gentle readers! We at LSS respect that, but point out that complacency never got anyone anywhere. Keep topping up those supplies of tinned food!

we post links from science direct and of course PNAS

https://www.livescience.com/magnetic-poles-south-atlantic-anomaly.html

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/14/2001217117

#polarmagneticreversal #disaster #catastrophe #magnetism

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The next in our series of light-hearted looks at the disasters that could produce a catastrophic (and painful) end to us all

The Sun, as every schoolchild knows, is about 151.98 million km away. That’s just about far enough to keep us all warm, and not to get too sunburned, provided you use lots of that funny factor cream, or whatever they call it. And so it ticks away, warming our houses, helping us grow things like potatoes, and giving lazy people the excuse to lie around for an hour instead of working or looking to morally improve themselves. As it has been doing this for many years, what could possible go wrong?

Well quite a lot, actually. Every so often, magnetic disturbances throw out solar flares, enormous surges of highly charged magnetic particles, some of which reach earth. Normally they are harmless, simply producing agreeable atmospheric displays called the aurora borealis. But once in a while there is a much bigger one. The destructive potential of one of these could be colossal. No, it won’t burn you to death. But the enormous input of charged particles will knock out our entire rim of communications satellites, leading to a collapse of world communications. Power generation facilities, especially transformers, will be overwhelmed. As the power goes down, the vast stores of refrigerated foods we store in supermarkets and depots will rot to poison in days. Vaccines and other treatments stored at low temperatures will deteriorate. And who will be able to operate a hospital or prison, with all the chilling implications that has for the social order?

Hasn’t been known before, we hear you chortle. Oh yes it has. The first known such was the Carrington event of 1859. That only wrecked the world’s telegraph systems, because that was all they had back then. We’re a bit more vulnerable now, aren’t we? And if you still sit complacently over your bowl of porridge, think of this. Studies of other class G stars like our Sun, suggest that really big flares like this are common. It’s just a matter of waiting until the old roulette wheel comes round with our number on it.

If you want to know more, read this excellent article by Patricia Sanchez-Blazquez and Pablo G Perez from El Pais. It’s in Spanish, so if you live in places like Deportivo la Coruna, Espanyol or Real Sociedad, you’ll need a translator.

https://elpais.com/ciencia/2020-07-21/podria-una-tormenta-solar-acabar-con-nuestra-civilizacion.html

#solarflare #powernetwork #communicationssatellites #magnetosphere #auroraborealis

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Yesterday, we discussed the amazing findings of demographers who suggest the draw- dropping news that population may be falling, big-time, by the second half of the century. Forewarned is forearmed, we say- but what would such a world feel like?

Scouring our historical databases, the nearest model that we could come up with was the Black Death which hit the whole world from 1347 onwards. We are aware of the differences-this was a sudden terrible mortality, not a slow voluntary decline. Medieval record keeping was appalling, so, yes, it is hard to be sure about the figures. All of these problems are summarised in an excellent article by David Routt in EH Net*. But based on this article, and at this distance in time, it is possible to make a few fairly robust observations.

For the most survivors life got better quickly. Before the plague rents were high, wages were low, and the social hierarchy was pretty rigid. Sounds familiar. As the population fell, suddenly everyone wanted labourers. Wages rose quickly. The old rules which had held people in serfdom faded away. There was much greater mobility of labour, as lords tried to steal workers from each other

There was a resurgence of the slave trade, as another attempt to make up staff shortages. Which makes us wonder- will nations of the future raid each other for workers, if they cannot attract enough immigrants?

The elites grew rather unhappy at the disappearance of the old order. They paid writers to produce texts which moaned about social decay, disorder and general uppishness on the part of the lower orders. In various countries, laws were passed which tried to tie people back to the land, or limit their wages. We will leave it to you to assess how successful these were.

There is some evidence of reforestation, which may even have led to the little Ice Age. Certainly ploughland declined, and sheep pasture spread. So expect considerable changes in types of production from the seventies onwards. Whether that will improve the environment is a moot point.

Settlements shrank or disappeared altogether. If this is repeated, the opportunities for re wilding, and to reduce the appalling urban sprawls of today beckon alluringly.

We think that a lower population world, chosen by ourselves and not as the result of a terrible plague, offers the vision of a cleaner, spacious, more leisured and more prosperous world for the majority of us. However, there is one wild card now which they didn’t have in the Middle Ages. Technology, By which we mean the high technologies of artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and robotics. In the next blog, we might start to think about them.

we have double linked again here just in case it doesn’t come out. Otherwise look for David Routt The economic impact of the black death at the EH site

The Economic Impact of the Black Death

The Economic Impact of the Black Death

#blackdeath #populationfalls #immigration #labour shortages

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The startling news that population may be falling by the end of the century* is a ray of brightness in the gloom of viral plagues, economic hardship and ecological catastrophe. For the first time, a species may break the iron law of Thomas Malthus without a devastating mortality.  And it was women who achieved it. The emancipation of women from domestic tyranny was always a winner on moral grounds. But as they became better educated and demanded fulfilling work, the size of families has been falling steadily. Less population means less pressure on the environment. It means fewer workers, with higher wages and shorter hours.  No virus can spread so easily if everyone is living spaced out in large detached houses.

In the years to come there will be voices bleating that falling populations are bad for the economy. We need lots of endlessly working ants, they will cry, to buy all the products and services they make by their endless work, in a cycle of neurotic hyperactivity.  And the best countries are the biggest ones, that can go around the world with big armies and fleets, dominating and bullying in an endless cycle of narcissistic gratification.  Watch out for certain free market think tanks and their megaphones in the press.  Certain rich people hate times of labour scarcity (like after the Second World War).They are only really secure in the saddle when everyone is competing for scarce jobs and money.

To which we at LSS say rubbish. Firstly the world cannot sustain the model of endless overproduction and overwork. Rising global temperatures and Covid-19 are merely warning signs of massive trouble to come. Secondly a richer, leisured population will have far higher demands for goods and services than overworked peasants. So all those undergrads in the think tanks can still have their graphs pointing firmly upwards, and juggle their numbers in an ecstasy of bliss. Finally, smaller nations co-operating can stand up to bigger ones. Wars are more often won by technology and money than pure size. In the meantime, Ladies be warned!  If the emancipation of women from tyranny is the cause of a falling population, it will be the first thing which they will try to reverse.

All of this is in the future. The road from the twenties to the seventies will be through rising populations, ecological stress and economic troubles  All of which could spark catastrophe. In future blogs we will be seeing what history can teach us about all this, and where we go from here.

we thank Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for this link

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus

#worldpopulation #malthus #limitsto growth

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Our weekly look at stories which might interest you. Thanks again for readers’ ideas

What is herd immunity? What is endemic? Where will Covid-19 be six months or a year from now. Clues are found in this Telegraph article,via Microsoft, about the findings of Professor Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University. Our thanks to Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for this suggestion.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/uk-may-already-have-enough-herd-immunity-to-prevent-second-coronavirus-wave-study-says/ar-BB16PzPo?ocid=msedgntp

Mr Seymour is also interested in the recent news about projected population declines for later this century. We at LSS will be returning to this theme next week, assuming that there is anyone left to read it.

https://apple.news/A4SnVrjxsRpi3B5gZgh5GBg

Mr Gary Herbert of Buckinghamshire has two posts which concern our daily lives. The first is about Alzheimers from New Scientist That magazine has been doing some excellent coverage of this terrible problem in the last couple of years, so this comes out of a great stable>

Research in mice hints that proteins linked to Alzheimer’s may arrive in the brain from the gut. s.Alzheimer’s disease may be caused by the abnormal build-up of a protein in the gut that gradually spreads to the brain, according to research in mice. In people with Alzheimer’s disease, a protein called beta-amyloid clumps together in the brain to form plaques that disrupt normal brain processes. Beta-amyloid deposits have also been found in the guts of people who died with the condition, but they have been largely overlooked. Researchers injected small amounts of the protein into the gastrointestinal tracts of mice. After a year, the protein had spread to the brain, and the rats showed memory problems like those seen in people with Alzheimer’s. More evidence is needed to determine whether this process drives the disease in humans. Read more

The Amazon rainforest is like the lungs of the planet. Soaking up carbon dioxide and pumping out oxygen, it’s one of the few things left standing between us and total atmospheric degradation. In his second post, Gary Herbert warns us of its atrocious mismanagement by the Bolsonaro government, and how large blocks like the EU (and who else) are complicit. New Scientist strikes again!

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2249083-fifth-of-brazilian-beef-exports-to-eu-linked-to-illegal-deforestation/

Earlier this week, we alluded to the dangers of global methane levels-it’s twenty five times more potent as a warming gas than carbon dioxide. Well, the news isn’t good. Here’s Nature on how agriculture is a major culprit, with a couple of links and a summary

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02116-8?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=8a93e2b69c-bri

Global methane emissions have risen nearly 10% over the past 2 decades, resulting in record-high levels of the powerful greenhouse gas. Atmospheric concentrations of the gas — 1,875 parts per billion last year — are now more than 2.5 times above pre-industrial levels. Emissions have been mostly driven by agriculture and the natural-gas industry. Increasing red-meat consumption propelled a 12% increase in emissions from agriculture in 2017 alone. “People may joke, but cows and other ruminants burp as much methane as the oil and gas industry,” says Earth-systems researcher Robert Jackson.Nature | 3 minutes Reference: Environmental Research Letters paper & Earth System Science Data paper and finally….

When your luck’s out-it’s really out. When the famous asteroid hit Chixculub,it was travelling at the worst, the very worst angle it could have been to cause maximum damage. Poor old dinosaurs. And as if that wasn’t bad enough, we have seen unpublished research that suggests the impact occurred on a Friday lunchtime, completely ruining the weekend. That bit never made it into Science Daily of course!

Dinosaur-dooming asteroid struck Earth at ‘deadliest possible’ angle

Date: May 26, 2020Source:Imperial College LondonSummary:New simulations have revealed the asteroid that doomed the dinosaurs struck Earth at the ‘deadliest possible’ angle.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200526111320.htm

The work here came from Imperial College, that noble centre of Learning and for the diffusion of Useful Knowledge

#sciencedaily #nature #newscientist #amazonrainforest #deforestation #globalwarming #climatechange #covid19 #coronavirus #herdimmunity

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Following the allegations by the UK, the USA and Canada that those naughty Russians have been hacking their Covid-19 research facilities, we thought that tonight should have a Russian theme. Remember, oh my droogs, that these are just allegations-nothing has been proved! *

So, for all you thirsty malchicks and devotchkas, we have not one but two Russian-themed cocktail recipes for you tonight.

The Black Russian

You don’t need a bolshy great shaker for this, oh my brothers. Just get about four big ice cubes (plenty of them in Russia) and add two measures of vodka. 1 measure Kahlua. Decorate with a chocolate stick. Some persons like theirs topped up with coca cola or pepsi, but that is strictly an optional extra. Da?

The White Russian

You’ll need a shaker, droogies. Put five ice cubes theirin. Add one measure vodka, and one of Tia Maria. Ideally you need to add 1 measure of double cream, but if you can’t get it, the old moloko will do. Shake like you’ve just been handed a ten year stretch in the gulag, and pour into a tall glass. Some say a straw is hrorshow for this one, but we say it’s up to you.

And so – a toast. To Russian-British friendship. Let the findings of all our scientists be shared world-wide as soon as possible!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8532793/Putin-certainly-knew-Covid-hacking-says-former-intelligence-chair

#covid19 #hacking #cocktails

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The news of sweltering temperatures in Siberia should now be enough to awaken basic fears in anyone who wants any sort of future. Their decade-long series of heat waves culminating this year in record breaking temperatures, can only reasonably be explained by human global warming, as our links make clear. ** So what’s the beef? Siberia’s a big place, you might be tempted to say. Well, that is the problem; it’s so big that it holds colossal areas of permafrost. That in turn contains colossal amounts of methane, which as every schoolchild knows, does a far better job of global warming than carbon dioxide ever did.* Twenty five times better in fact. It is perfectly possible to envisage a real runaway greenhouse effect now. Siberia goes down releasing all that methane, which in turn triggers North America above the 60th parallel and the rest of the Arctic. If it was just CO2, we might have controlled it, but this……..

All of which calls for global leadership, during which people at the top earn their money by drafting new laws, setting up research programmes and above all setting the tone, like the grown-ups are meant to. And, to be fair to Vladimir Putin, he did let this data go out. There are a quite a number of regimes around the world who try to bury any bad news, whatever the consequences. But what of his great friend Donald Trump-what example did he set? As his contribution, the Immortal Thinker of Pennsylvania Avenue has announced a review of environmental impact reviewing, making it easier for polluters to get away with even more damage and destruction. The fact that our link is from Forbes today should show that it is not Green Commie Propaganda. Read it; but he most important fact is that Trump wants to eliminate the requirement to assess the impact of global warming on new projects. Yet we still hope that the President of The United States might be more curious about the effects of global warming. Let him therefore answer one question, just to get started: what will be the effect of rising temperatures on hair lacquer, and will new brands be needed?

This link is from inside climate news, which we recommend to anyone who wants to read up more

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15072020/siberia

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248872-siberian-heatwave-was-impossible-without-human-made-climate-change/

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/07/15/trump-administration-weakens-magna-carta-of-environmental

#globalwarming #siberiarecord #vladimirputin #donaldtrump #methane

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The news of sweltering temperatures in Siberia should now be enough to awaken basic fears in anyone who wants any sort of future. Their decade-long series of heat waves culminating this year in record breaking temperatures, can only reasonably be explained by human global warming, as our links make clear. ** So what’s the beef? Siberia’s a big place, you might be tempted to say. Well, that is the problem; it’s so big that it holds colossal areas of permafrost. That in turn contains colossal amounts of methane, which as every schoolchild knows, does a far better job of global warming than carbon dioxide ever did.* Twenty five times better in fact. It is perfectly possible to envisage a real runaway greenhouse effect now. Siberia goes down releasing all that methane, which in turn triggers North America above the 60th parallel and the rest of the Arctic. If it was just CO2, we might have controlled it, but this……..

All of which calls for global leadership, during which people at the top earn their money by drafting new laws, setting up research programmes and above all setting the tone, like the grown-ups are meant to. And, to be fair to Vladimir Putin, he did let this data go out. There are a quite a number of regimes around the world who try to bury any bad news, whatever the consequences. But what of his great friend Donald Trump-what example did he set? As his contribution, the Immortal Thinker of Pennsylvania Avenue has announced a review of environmental impact reviewing, making it easier for polluters to get away with even more damage and destruction. The fact that our link is from Forbes today should show that it is not Green Commie Propaganda. Read it; but he most important fact is that Trump wants to eliminate the requirement to assess the impact of global warming on new projects. Yet we still hope that the President of The United States might be more curious about the effects of global warming. Let him therefore answer one question, just to get started: what will be the effect of rising temperatures on hair lacquer, and will new brands be needed?

This link is from inside climate news, which we recommend to anyone who wants to read up more

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15072020/siberia

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248872-siberian-heatwave-was-impossible-without-human-made-climate-change/

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/07/15/trump-administration-weakens-magna-carta-of-environmental

#globalwarming #siberiarecord #vladimirputin #donaldtrump #methane

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Survivors of the culture wars of the nineteen seventies will recall the profound influence of EO Wilson and his seminal Sociobiology. It was, said some, the first clear eyed picture of the biological roots of human behaviour. To others, it was the Devil’s work, accused of laying the intellectual foundations for such diverse creeds as Thatcherism, racism and biological determinism of all kinds-at least in the hands of some of his followers. Both positions utterly distorted the honest intellectual enquiry of a learned man, but he managed to unite both Marxists and Evangelical Christians into attacking him, some of them violently.*

All of which tells us he’s probably on to something.

Now in his ninety first year, he has thrown another massive rock into the pool, in the shape of a heavy tome called Genesis: the origin of societies. Drawing on the works of able thinkers such as Robin Dunbar, Maxime Derex and many others, he surveys a vast range of human societies, mainly from the point of view of evolutionary anthropology. And the picture is pretty bleak. Humans have always lived in closely related groups, suspicious of outsiders and indulging in endemic and violent intertribal wars. The main feature which distinguishes them from chimpanzees is the ability to organise in larger groups. This in turn was a result of larger brains and language, developed in long chats around the campfire. In the morning these tended to be practical in nature- agendas for which bison to hunt or where to find healthy foods. In the evening it was more story telling, with things like families neighbours and the crimes of evil foreigners high on the list.

Readers of LSS will surely groan-“here we go again! Are we once more condemned to live like programmed ants, fighting and hating until we vanish into some self-created nuclear armageddon?

But there are some crumbs of hope. Firstly, the myth of the Noble Savage can be laid to rest. People in their natural state really are brutish, violent, and self defeating. Proof of the latter is shown by the fate of hunter gather societies the world over when they meet better organised, and educated, groups. Secondly, the achievements of the educated in creating cooperative institutions like universities, corporations and science, or multinational entities, have made things marginally more pleasant. However much they are held to be against the grain of human nature. However much our side seems to be in retreat now, we have done the right things in the past, and may yet be able to again the future. Thirdly, like him or hate him, Wilson is a deeply honest and erudite man, whose first commitment is to finding the truth as he sees it. And so we hope and pray that this is not the last production from a man we call the Sage of Birmingham. (Alabama)

yourfirst link is in Spanish, so if you live in Birmingham or Barcelona, you’ll need your translator

https://elpais.com/ideas/2020-07-13/nuestra-especie-se-forjo-hablando-alrededor-del-fuego-de-dia-sobre-cosas-p

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._O._Wilson

#sociobiology #humanevolution #eowilson #kinselection #anthropology

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Because maybe your immune response won’t last too long, that’s why. One thing we do know: Sars-CoV-2 is in the same family as cold viruses. And, as any schoolchild knows, they keep on coming back.

Today Ian Sample of the Guardian * reports the first study which seems to show that your antibody response to a Covid 19 attack lasts for about three months at best. We much prefer you to read the story, linked below, because of the superb graph from the team at Kings College London who carried out the study. Here we want to talk about the questions and implications that Ian’s report raises.

Firstly, if immunity to infection can fall away, so can immunity induced by a vaccine. So will we now need a regular booster programme? If so, how much will that cost, and how shall it be administered? Would you, gentle reader, care to pay more taxes for that? Or could states pool the costs via supra-national bodies like the WHO?

On the other hand, does the immune system “remember” the antigen, and return to antibody production later? What role do T- cells have in all this, as Ian very sensibly asks? And finally, like an old bore in a pub, we at LSS are going to return to an old theme. Why isn’t someone using Artificial Intelligence algorithms to predict the likely evolutions of the virus? Surely that’s a better use of resources than just another mobile banking app?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

here’s the report-it’s not yet been peer reviewed

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1

#coronavirus #sarscov2 # covid19 #vaccine #immunity #artificial intelligence