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Almost one hundred years ago the great economist JM Keynes predicted that within a few years, the working week could be cut to 15 hours, as all the basic needs of mankind would have been met. It was the 1930s equivalent of the current discussion on the introduction of a Universal Basic Income, a recent proposal for the milllions who will be thrown out of work by the rise of Artificial Intelligence.

The basic idea has been floating around for centuries, and discussed by thinkers as diverse as Thomas Paine and Noah Harari. Superficially, it’s attractive because it addresses an obvious problem. It is daring, counter-intuitive, and humane. Its logic is beguiling: the state protects us all from enemies via the armed forces and police-so why not from hunger and cold?

Yet once again, that old Devil whispers in our ear. “Yes”, he says; “AI has cost a lot of people their jobs-but isn’t that an argument for finding them different jobs?” To be fair, work has its own benefits for the human soul. There’s nothing like the disciplines of the work place for knocking the bad bits off of lazy, rebellious teenagers and proving that they’re not the centre of the universe. Finally-will all the millions still in work, and the owners of capital, actually be willing to pay for vast numbers of idlers to laze the day away in the park?

Wiser heads than our own have counselled looking at the various pilot schemes and trials which have been tried before rushing to judgement. In our time, we have seen many a brave scheme go down to failure. Extreme caution on this one, we think.

Universal basic income – Wikipedia

Economics: Whatever happened to Keynes’ 15-hour working week? | Economics | The Guardian

Yuval Noah Harari 21 Lessons for the Twenty First Century Jonathan Cape 2018

#universalbasicincome #johnmaynardkeynes #thomaspaine #economics #artificialintelligence #automation

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The first rule of knowledge is to ask the right questions. We’ll tell you the second later. Today, that most admirable Journal Nature gets close to asking exactly the right, sensible questions about where this whole sorry Covid mess came from:

Following a month-long fact-finding mission in China, a World Health Organization (WHO) team investigating the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic concluded that the virus probably originated in bats and passed to people through an intermediate animal. But fundamental questions remain about when, where and how SARS-CoV-2 first infected people.
Nature speaks to four of the WHO investigators about five questions they still want answered.Nature | 7 min read

We’re not going to steal their thunder, perish the thought, but here are the five questions

Was the virus circulating in Wuhan before the outbreak was declared ? The internet is chock full of people with opinions on this, often with agendas of their own. Here you will find some cool headed analysis-and the findings may surprise you

Was the virus circulating outside China before that fateful December 2019? We’ve touched on this before at LSS-and it looks as if some pretty thorough follow-ups are taking place at last.

Was it the infamous Wuhan meat market? Maybe everyone zoomed in too fast on this back last year. After all, where do markets get their supplies from?

What about frozen meat? Maybe it didn’t come in from local fresh sources, but from much further away!

Was it wild animals? Ah this one’s almost nostalgic now-remember all those bats and pangolins? So what other viruses are out there -and how often do they jump the species barrier?

Oh yeah -the second rule of knowledge. We almost forgot, sorry. Never listen to anyone who knows the answers, especially when they have no training in the field they are sounding off about. The ones who don’t know are usually right-and they keep asking questions. Wanting cognitive closure is a sure sign of being an idiot.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00502-4?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=0e95e46bd1-b

#Sars-Cov-2 #covid-19 #coronavirus #bats #pangolins #wuhan #China #meatmarket #pandemic #zoonoses

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When first confronted with overwhelming evidence for climate change the primary tactic for carbon polluters was to deny it. Working through a network of journalists, politicians and lobby groups, they muddied the waters, confused the science and sowed doubt enough to continue reaping profits. Slowly the weight of evidence has made this tactic increasingly untenable. So another trope has been to asseverate that renewable energy was always going to be too expensive and that practical men-notice the noun-would always rely on fossil fuels, because they knew so much more than the rest of us – women, students, greens and other less flattering epithets- about how the world worked, etc.

They were false prophets. Because now the overwhelming evidence is that the cost of renewable energy-solar, wind, tides and so on is plummeting. Below we have three excellent websites which will take the wind out of the polluters’ sails-with lots of sparkling pictures and clever graphics. But allow us to cherry pick a few plum facts. Between 2010 and 2019 the cost of concentrated solar energy fell by 47%; for PV solar it was a stunning 82%. Wind energy costs are down by between 29-39%. And remember-we haven’t started to talk about the improvements in batteries to store all this. Hope indeed.

For over a century, carbon polluters have dominated out planet, our politics and our psychology. Their power was based on big money. But investment follows profits, and both are moving out of fossils and towards the future. Expect continued fights from the carbon polluters and their accolytes.But no one knows better than them that the writing is on the wall.

Renewables ‘increasingly cheaper’ than fossil fuels – reNews – Renewable Energy News

Renewables cheaper than fossil fuel plants by 2030 – pv magazine International (pv-magazine.com)

Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? And what can we do to use this global opportunity for green growth? – Our World in Data

#climatechange #globalwarming #fossilfuels #pollution #solarenergy #windenergy #tidalenergy #nuclearenergy #renewables #2030

The bear is back– it looks as if investors and borrowers may be in for a rough time during the next few months. The long bull market may about to be replaced by a mean old bear, which has been lurking in the corner ever since inflation worries emerged. How long is it going to last? Here’s a nifty little piece from Julia Kollewe and Graeme Wearden in the Guardian.

Global stock markets drop as inflation fears prompt sell-off | Stock markets | The Guardian

You can be an Oxford University Scientist by Monday-staying on the theme of bears, how would you like to be a scientist doing original research for Oxford University, starting next week-and, get this, from the comfort of your own home? Apple News report that Oxford want the public to help them analyse ten years’ worth of photos for behavioural studies. We say; the more data we get, the more chance there is of saving these amazing creatures from extinction.To quote the words of La Belle in their popular song Lady Marmalade “hey Joe- wanna give it a go?”

_{We thank Mr and Mrs L Charlton of Kent for this lead}

Oxford University are looking for armchair citizen scientists for a polar bear research project (inews.co.uk)

Tigers-Two steps forward, one back: Humanity can be proud of the stupendous efforts made to conserve the graceful Tiger. India has had particular success. But now its parks and reservations face the same problem that zoos and sancturies have known for decades-inbreeding among tiny populations. Looks like one we’ll have to tackle in the forthcoming decades. Both ESSO and Kellogs do well from tiger branding- how about passing them the old hat? Here’s The Hindu, via Nature Briefings.

Tigers (Panthera tigris) in India could lose their rich genetic diversity as their habitats shrink in size, according to an analysis of the complete genome sequences of 65 tigers. Hemmed into increasingly fragmented protected areas, the tigers might mate only with those in their own population, including their relatives. The analysis found that several individual tigers had low genetic variation, suggesting that inbreeding has already occurred. Some 70% of the world’s tigers live in India.The Hindu | 9 min read
Further reading: India’s tigers seem to be a massive success story — many scientists aren’t sure (Nature | 15 min read, from 2019)
Reference: Molecular Biology and Evolution paper

Finally….how much is a bottle of wine? It could be up to $2.07 million dollars, if you like champagne, although more reasonable prices start around $21 000-$34 000 a bottle. We were amazed when we read this article on the Finance online website. It’s not a question of the rights and wrongs of spending that money. It’s simply a question of why bother?

Top 10 Most Expensive Champagne Bottles In The World In 2021 – Financesonline.com

That’s it for the week. We counsel you all that if you are going to enjoy a tipple with your Saturday Night Supper, you indulge in something that is priced a little more moderately.

#stockmarket #bearmarket #bullmarket #inflation #polarbears #climatechange #tiger #conservation #champagne

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Having a powerful new refrigerator has awakened us once more to life’s simple delights. A nice cold beer, and maybe some nuts, on a Friday night before dinner. Makes a change from cocktails- who needs all that mixing, recipes and complicated apparatus every week? And as for the washing up! So today we are going to review some old friends,ones that have stood us in good stread for decades, to let you make some choices. But, gentle readers, these are only our first drafts, if you will pardon the pun. We are certain you will have many ideas of your own. Let’s start in on the beer-and be certain it’s frosty cold!

San Miguel -The stand by of many a Benidorm Package Holiday, now available in all good UK supermarkets, the yellow, mellow caballero is the perfect company for warm nights in the Gardens of Seville. Or Scunthorpe. Or anywhere else. Marks and Sparks now have a marvellous tasty range of snacks like chorizo bites and jamon serrano crisps to give that authentic Spanish tang. Download a few flamenco guitar numbers,and your Iberian immersion will be worthy of Don Quijote himself!

Heineken– UK readers will recall this brand as having the funniest adverts of the nineteen seventies (Refreshes the parts other beers cannot reach) Definitely a taste of its own, with notes of cereals and shades of long chain carbohydrates. Perfect with peanuts, especially dry roasted.(allergy sufferers avoid!)

Kronenburg (“Vot about my unfinizghed pint ov Kronenburg?” as the composer Schubert is reported to have said of his eighth symphony.) Actually it’s French, not German, despite the name and the celebrity endorsement. Generally marketed in pints or litres, the old soixante-quatre is a big in-yer-face pub beer, which means it goes well with things like potato crisps or other pub snacks. But can fit well in the warm demi-monde of summer house and lawn, if you want to have it large.

Honourable mentions: Stella Artois, Fosters, Fullers’ London Pride. Roasted almonds. Bits of cheddar cheese.

San Miguel Beer exploring the world  | San Miguel

Welcome to Heineken UK

Kronenbourg 1664 | UK | A Taste Suprême (k1664.co.uk)

Classic Ads: Kronenburg Schubert starring Alan Lake – Bing video

#beer #nuts #cocktails #fridaynight #franzschubert

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Covid-19 may finally be on the wane, but how would you feel if we told you that there are worse pandemics out there, waiting to happen? Because before Covid, during and after, lies the threat of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. The alpha and the omega of pandemics. Long sufferering readers on LSS will recall our interest in this chilling theme,as well as allusions we have made to both bacteriophages and CRISPR. (LSS passim) Now there’s real hope that someone is to bringing all this together to deal with antibiotic resistant organisms before they pose a real threat.

For newer readers: a bacteriophage is just a type of virus that kills bacteria insted of us. Find the right one and it will kill dangerous bacteria as quickly as lions going through a herd of wildebeest. The technique was successfully pioneered over a hundred years ago. But it was eclipsed. by antibiotics, especially in the west Time for a comeback! Kevin Doxzen, writing in The Conversation tells of how, using the new CRISPR technology, a phage has been engineered to attack Clostridioides difficile. Because this bacterium is antibiotic resistant, it is now killing 29 000 people a year in the USA alone. Or it was until CRISPR bioengineers came along.

We know you like good news, gentle readers. Here thanks to basic science R&D, is some really good news. But science needs money, and it takes time. Next time someone tells you only the balance sheet counts, tell them about this.

Engineered viruses can fight the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (theconversation.com)

Bacteriophages – an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

#phages #antibioticresistance #gramnegative #covid-19 #bacteria #medicine

There are many ways to contend with antibiotic resistance. In the UK the charity antibiotic resistance UK is leading the fight like no other! Please help by clicking below

Antibiotic Research UK | Fighting Antibiotic Resistance

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Running out of space-round where we live very spare inch of land is built over for flats, flats and more flats. Vineyards and open country are smashed up again and again for more housing- so what’s going to soak up all that extra carbon dioxide? Talking of which, we now have about eight years before we hit an irreversible tipping point and the climate changes forever. What’s the point of building all those nice housing estates if they are uninhabitable? But humanity just goes on growing away- we long since passed 7 billion copies of ourselves and are well on the way to 8 billion.

There is a solution. No one dies. Everyone gets richer. Everyone’s children and great- great- great- grandchildren lead longer, happier and sustainable lives. Think of it as a vaccine if you like-like the ones for Covid-19. The answer is education for women. All the data show that it produces better outcomes. Lower infant mortality. Healthier children. Rising National Income. More things to talk about. Above all, stable or falling populations. So below we link to two sites which we hope will give you a jumping-off point, gentle readers.

But please don’t just read. Do. On your feeds, on your blogs, in all your Letters to the Editor,whether they’re to the Parish Magazine or the Los Angeles Times, please plug, push and promote this one as much as you can.

After all, isn’t there a little matter of Natural Justice somewhere in here as well?

Girls’ education | UNICEF

How education can moderate population growth | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

#feminism #educationforwomen #unicef #wef #populationcontrol #birthcontrol #covid-19 #climatechange #ecology #sustainability

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Come on, you know which virus we’re talking about: Sars-Cov-2, the one that’s causing the Covid-19 pandemic that’s wreaking such havoc on peoples’ lives, and the balance sheets of Finance Ministers the world over. Well, the lockdown are working, the vaccines are rolling out-but can we afford to be complacent? Will the virus mutate, and find a way back? How do viruses mutate anyway?

One person who knows is Maya Wei-Haas. In an article in National Geographic*(incidentally a gem of scientific journalism; clear, precise and with some fabulous pictures), she tells every concerned Mum, Dad and everyone else exactly what they need to know. The more cases you have, the more mutations you’ll get. A limited number, like the famous Kent 1.1.7 will produce new challenges to our immune systems. Coronaviruses aren’t quite as good at mutating as flu viruses are-however they’re not bad at it either.

For those who like to drink deep from the Well of Knowledge, there’s always good old Wikipedia*. Warning: it’ll take more than a coffee break to do this earnest, deeply researched and utterly worthy piece real justice. But you will come out actually knowing something, which is more than the blowhards at the Dog and Duck do.

Our thoughts? Currently,there’s no virologist on the staff at LSS, and many of the readers of this will be cleverer than the writer. That said, we think that Sars-Cov-2 will go endemic, as flu viruses have. That won’t be a problem if we continue to predict the variations, maybe using AI. And continue to develop new vaccines, using money. That is true for many other potential threats, like antibiotic resistant bacteria, for example. Perhaps if humanity found ways of building just a few less superyachts and a few more research laboratories, we could all sleep safer in our beds at night.

The coronavirus is mutating—but what determines how quickly? (nationalgeographic.com)

Viral evolution – Wikipedia

Top 100 World’s Largest Yachts | Superyachts.com | Superyachts.com

#sars-Cov-2 #covid-19 #superyachts #coronavirus #fluvirus #evolution #mutation #rna #dna #artificialintelligence

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Old LSS hands will know our house style. Something on science, something on political economy. maybe education, with a bracing cocktail or two on Friday nights. Now, imagine a site that does that and a lot more. Gentle readers, we earnestly refer you to Big Think. https/bigthink.com A heady, eclectic mix of science, sex,psychology, surprises, religion, culture-and much more that the thinking woman or man needs to know. All served up in readable, chatty articles which you can take in with your morning coffee and chocolate hobnobs. We discovered it while looking for things that go faster than light,* only to see the link later, buried on out Apple News feed. Funny old world.

Spoiler alert; These people are not to be confused with The Big Think which seems to be a perfectly worthy, but rather specialised educational foundation

*some do, sort of

#bigthink #science #health #sex #religion #culture #politics #currentaffairs

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Everyone is worried about fake news, conspiracy theories, unreason and deep political divisions. And rightly so-this is no longer the balmy climate of the late nineteen nineties! So why the growth in extremism, and the stubborn refusal to accept facts?Now a team at Cambridge University think they have the answer. They studied 330 participants aged from 22 to 63 on a variety of neuropsychological tasks. According to the excellent report by Natalie Grover of the Guardian, they found:

people with extremist attitudes tended to think about the world in black and white terms, and struggled with complex tasks that required intricate mental steps, said lead author Dr Leor Zmigrod at Cambridge’s department of psychology.

“Individuals or brains that struggle to process and plan complex action sequences may be more drawn to extreme ideologies, or authoritarian ideologies that simplify the world,” she said.

It’s a fascinating idea, and seems to hold a key to a major problem. But beware easy answers, like “nasty people are stupid”. For one thing, it’s dangerous to underestimate the enemy. But there’s another. We’ve seen a lot of clever, hitherto successful people make some dreadful errors. Often because they grab hold of an obsession and won’t let it go. Often such people are under extreme emotional and psychological stress -factors first identified by Norman Dixon in his ground breaking work The Psychology of Miliary Incompetence. Think Napoleon and Russia-but there are many many other examples. Maybe you’ve seen people do it in your organisation. And can we flip this-could it be that people who are under great stress, maybe due to poverty, thereby turn to extremist beliefs? More research needed, surely.

People with extremist views less able to do complex mental tasks, research suggests | Psychology | The Guardian

On the Psychology Of Military Incompetence Norman F Dixon Pimlico 1994

#neuropsychology #cognitivedissonance #stress #blackandwhitethinking #extremism