The slew of tv documentaries and news stories about the recent discoveries in the Roman town of Pompeii, destroyed by a cataclysmic eruption of nearby Mount Vesuvius in AD 79, certainly afford material for reflection. [1] Here was a thriving town, blotted out in a single day. Yet this was a small eruption. Far greater damage was done to the Roman Empire by the titanic eruptions in the age of the Emperor Justinian in 536 AD. [2] The resulting world-wide winter produced cataclysmic hunger, which in turn weakened the resistance to the bubonic plague epidemic which ravaged the Empire in the following decade. It is easy to think that we moderns, with all our advanced technologies are far superior to those old Romans, and thereby conclude “it won’t happen to us”. Don’t be so sure, at least until you have looked at this piece from Nature Briefings The Next Big Eruption will come. And, like the inhabitants of Ancient Rome, it looks as if we are woefully unprepared:
Tamsin Mather’s book Adventures in Volcanoland takes readers on a journey to some of the world’s most notorious and active volcanoes — and reminds us that the next volcanic catastrophe is inevitable. Yet global preparedness for volcanic eruptions is severely lacking, says fellow volcanologist and reviewer Heather Handley. There is no international treaty organization for volcanic hazards and no global coordination on issuing comprehensive warnings of risks of eruptions, she says. Mather’s book “reminds us that we should all keep careful watch on the world’s volcanoes”.Nature | 7 min read
And where will it happen? We’ve linked to this handy guide to the top five or so candidates, which, if they blew, could easily plunge us all into an economy-collapsing winter.[3] They include Popocatapetl, Mount Fuji and Mount Ranier. But don’t forget the highly active caldera of magma which sits under Naples, and includes Vesuvius itself. Are you sure it won’t happen?
As Justinian and his subjects found, deadly plagues soon follow the societal collapse produced by a giant volcanic event. Of course, these plagues can happen anyway without help from under the ground. Proof of how close this might be comes with alarming news that bird flu viruses have now jumped the species barrier into mammals. Which means they could spread rapidly among humans any time soon. The potential consequences will be far, far graver than the recent Covid-19 outbreak, which is already passing into memory. Nature Briefings takes up the story
“In my flu career, we have not seen a virus that expands its host range quite like this,” says virologist Troy Sutton about H5N1, an avian influenza virus that has rapidly infiltrated species well beyond birds. While most mammal infections were probably caused by contact with an infected bird, there’s evidence that the virus has now evolved to spread directly between some species, such as sea lions. Spreading in more species gives H5N1 opportunities to further adapt to mammals, including humans. So far, the virus doesn’t show signs of being able to cause a pandemic, Sutton says. “If we don’t give it the panic but we give it the respect and due diligence, I believe we can manage it,” adds Rick Bright, chief executive of a public health consultancy.The New York Times | 10 min read
One thing you won’t get at LSS is frivolous celebrity gossip nor trivial items about the doings of footballers, actors and minor royals. Instead, we offer timely and thoughtful warnings about the real issues which confront us. How you respond to them, gentle readers, is up to you.
[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68777741
[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter_of_536
[3]https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-dangerous-volcanoes-in-the-world.html
#volcano #caldera #volcanic winter #ad536 #pandemic #plague
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