Alternatives to a World Government: Part #1 of a new series

All the thinkers we admire  say  the same thing really: what is your alternative explanation? Bayes insists on always balancing two probabilities. Russell on always looking at the opposite point of view, Keynes on first establishing if your pet idea is general or just a special case. And Daniel Kahneman on checking which bit of your brain you’re thinking with anyway. Which brings us round to our universal panacea, a World Government. We’ve made the case for it a number of times here(LSS passim) so veteran readers will know our diagnosis: most of the problems of the world appear intractable because nation states can never work together with sufficient speed and co-operation to resolve them. Hence economic stagnation, growing xenophobia and a rapid breakdown of the ecological systems upon which we all depend for Life.

Hang on: because aren’t we muddling diagnosis with solution? In which case abolishing the nation state becomes a futile quest, and our World Government a mare’s nest. Are there other diagnoses of our ills which, if correc.t could address all these ills while safely retaining our systems of Governance.? We ought look at them : we owe our readers that much. And so we drew up a list of other possible root causes, which we cheerfully present below. We shall examine them in the coming weeks. Our candidates include Economic inequality. Institutional decay, Technological acceleration, and its concomitant, cognitive overload., Economic model exhaustion, Tribalism and Media systems and collapse of a common narrative

None of them are mutually exclusive and we will find overlapping themes, read similar authorities and consider facts more than once as we move through the series. So bear with us. But one thing we do know: one of you out there, maybe more than one, will have an idea we haven’t thought of. So if you want to put a candidate on the list let us know. In any case we look forward to all of you accompanying us on this next journey.

# bayes #jm keynes # bertrand russell #daniel kahneman #history #economics #politics #governance #technology

Should we blame Alan Greenspan for everything that’s gone wrong?

As historians of the future pick through the rubble of America’s decline and fall after its supreme triumph in 1991, they will ask one plaintive question: “How was such a winning position thrown away so decisively — and so quickly?” There will be plenty of blame to go around, plenty of suspects against whom fingers will be pointed. But one name keeps coming up again and again: Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006.

Today, the case for the prosecution against “ol’ Al” is made loudly, cogently, and with devastating clarity by Robert Reich, US Secretary of Labor under Clinton and now a professor at Berkeley.

We really think you should read this [1] — especially if you have a home, a family, a community, and, most pertinently of all, a job where the salary has not risen significantly in twenty years or so. But for those pressed for time, Reich summarises what he sees as Greenspan’s masterpiece of misjudgement thus:

“If any single person was responsible for the financial crisis of 2008, it was Greenspan… the worst collapse since 1929… resulted from the deregulation of Wall Street that Greenspan advocated.”

He pushed Clinton and Congress to repeal the Glass–Steagall Act, which since the 1930s had separated investment banking from commercial banking, thereby preventing banks from gambling with personal savings. He also argued vigorously against regulating derivatives — essentially financial bets on financial bets — that later proved to be weapons of mass financial destruction.”

Yet we ask: is the culprit really Greenspan? Or is it actually ourselves?

Greenspan was widely regarded by critics as an enthusiastic advocate of the ultra‑rich and the values they espouse: hierarchy, conspicuous consumption, obsessive individualism. Whether these are virtues or vices is a matter of debate — but they were adopted enthusiastically by wide sections of the population for decades, making the task of Greenspan and his Wall Street fellow‑travellers infinitely easier.

For the ultimate illusion they peddled was Common Sense: it makes sense to reduce the deficit, for what is a nation but a giant household? Well, it is a bit — but mostly it isn’t. So things like infrastructure, research, and health go into the “nice‑but‑we‑can’t‑afford‑it” ledger too many times, and slowly but surely decline acquires a momentous, unstoppable hegemony of its own.

So don’t just blame Greenspan — blame ourselves for buying into a system that puts that sort of man into that sort of job. And hope that future societies develop much more judicious HR policies.

[1] RIP Alan Greenspan: you were charming, powerful and wrong | Robert Reich | The Guardian

#business #economics #united states of America #alan greenspan #robert reich #finance #markets

Thomas Piketty thinks he has a way out of the mess: but do we know enough to take it?

Given the simultaneous polycrises we’re now immersed in, it’s always poignant to come across a report that offers possible ways out. So when another such is unearthed, this time by Jonathan Watts of the Guardian, [1]we were particularly intrigued. Partly because it covers some the same tropes we have circled around here ( Justice;  LSS 24 4 23 et seq : Inequality: LSS 16 9 25 and governance; LSS 16 1 25 et seq) And partly because one of the report’s moving spirits is the great Historian and economist Thomas Piketty, whose name has also graced these pages. [2]

Living standards can rise for all, the authors asseverate. The worst of climate change may be mitigated. Political and social tensions ameliorated. The key is to tax the small group of billionaires who control most of the world’s wealth and power. While at the same time redirecting investment away from carbon heavy industries such as construction, mining and manufacturing and towards education and healthcare. The new world they envisage would have a shorter working week, be more prosperous (the lowest universal income quartile would come in around $5000 per annum) and above all be ecologically stable. Hyper capitalist consumers and green neo-puritans come in for equal criticism. Both endless consumption and austerity hair shirts are unfeasible say Piketty and co. Sufficiency is their new lodestar for their intriguing (dare we think Whiggish?) Third way. [3][4][5]

And our thoughts? We think the report’s careful scholarship and refreshing new thoughts are clear already. Its recommendations are both sanguine and rational and would undoubtedly contribute to a more tolerable world. But: they run up against what in everyday language is called human nature and in Social Identity Theory comparative advantage. Most people would rather live in a world where they had £10 and their neighbour £5 rather than one in which they had £15 and that neighbour £13, as their relative social advantage is better in the first instance than the second. That, in a nutshell is the human weakness.[6] It suggests that groups enjoying relative social advantage will fight like tom cats to maintain it against inferior groups, rather than join with them to their common benefit. Particularly if they are well funded to do so by sympathetic billionaires who thereby ensure their own supreme advantage over all. This is human instinct. In theory we could overcome it. Have we the cognitive capacity to do so?

[1]‘An equal and habitable world is possible’: academics set out sweeping vision for planetary survival | Environment | The Guardian

[2]Thomas Piketty – Wikipedia

[3]World Inequality Conference 2026 – World Inequality Lab

[4]World Inequality Report 2026

[5]Global Justice Project

[6] Ernst Fehr & Klaus M. Schmidt, “A Theory of Fairness, Competition, and Cooperation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(3), 1999, pp. 817–868.

#economics #climate change #inequalty #social justice #tax #education #decarbonisation

More pointers towards a coming crash(and this time it’s from someone much cleverer than us)

Over the years we’ve ventured a series of blogs (LSS 23 4 25;30 6 25 18 5 26) in which we suggested that another financial crash on the scale of 1929 or 2007-8 may be approaching. We shared our concerns about the long-term viability of US Treasuries, pointing to weaknesses in the property market and the effects this might have on general confidence and demand. We also speculated that rising tides of nationalism and protectionism vitiated the possibilities of co-operative global responses in the style of 2008. Our view alone; and we swiftly moved on to to other matters.

Yet the risks have not gone away. Eduardo Porter, in an excellent article for the Guardian, [1] does not dismiss the possibility of the AI stocks bubble bursting.  But for him:

The largest risk, at this moment, revolves around the federal government’s accumulation of debt, now in excess of 120% of the nation’s gross domestic product, a near unprecedented level. It is likely to keep on growing at a fast clip given massive built in budget deficits for the next decade……a global context: the US’s insatiable appetite for capital – to finance data centers or the federal deficit – is met by China’s export of capital to recycle its huge trade surplus. A coarse, schematic way to think of it is China sells stuff to the US and invests the proceeds in the US. Then, Americans take money from China and use it to buy Chinese stuff.

That’s how the world works in May 2026. What happens next? Now Porter gets really interesting, pointing to deep political risks which might trigger a sell off of US debt.[2] Astute readers will not be surprised to learn that many of them revolve around a the actions of President Donald J Trump. An invasion of Greenland? Stepping the war in Iran up again? Attempting to meddle with the Federal Reserve, sending the dollar into a tailspin? Mr Trump is a democratically elected politician and has every right to do these things. But if he does, the consequences will be global. And Porter is equally merciless on the shortcomings of other nations. Like us, he sees no collective escape this time. Ouch indeed.

[1] The world is heading toward a financial crisis – the state of US politics has left us ill-prepared | Business | The Guardian

[2] https://www.aei.org/economics/brewing-government-bond-market-crises/?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8u2PIGjNg8Q6fBS5RzfUnOeM9txpv7fI9NjE9uC1veq4UgmUkPS-0YDGyIk7m_WiFx

#economics #politics #USA #Federal Reserve #economic crisis #dollar #world trade

Why Adam Smith thought immigration controls were Creeping Socialism

Many people who call themselves free‑marketeers begin from a sincere fear of “creeping socialism.” They see every new regulation, planning rule, workplace standard, environmental requirement and every tax as another brick in a wall that hems in enterprise and erodes liberty. They believe that once government starts managing economic life, it rarely stops. Which creates a contradiction at the heart of a lot of modern political rhetoric. Parties, especially of the Right, describe themselves as advocates of free‑market nations, committed to open trade, open capital, open competition, lower taxes — and then insist that immigration must be tightly controlled. It sounds like a reasonable compromise, a balancing act between global economics and local sentiment. But it’s also a rejection of the classical liberal tradition we claim to inherit. Smith, Ricardo, Mill, Bastiat — none of them imagined markets as a buffet where you could pick capital and goods but decline labour. For them, the free movement of labour was not an optional extra but a structural necessity. Capital moves to where it earns the highest return; goods move to where they are most valued; labour moves to where it is most productive. These are not moral preferences but mechanical facts. Remove one gear and the machine does not slow down politely; it compensates, strains, and distorts.

Yet modern politicians try to keep the first two gears spinning while jamming a stick into the third. Where capital must be free, goods must be free, but labour must be fenced, filtered, and  rationed. The economic equivalent of declaring your devotion to physics while exempting yourself from gravity on weekends. Once you restrict labour mobility, you are no longer operating a free market. You are operating a managed economy with selective liberalisation. This may be politically popular. It may even be economically defensible in certain circumstances. But it is not classical liberalism.

And the distortions appear everywhere. If labour cannot move, something else must. Capital moves instead: offshoring, outsourcing, investing abroad. Goods move instead: imports rise to fill the gap. Wages diverge between protected insiders and excluded outsiders. Productivity stagnates as firms rely on scarcity rather than innovation. Regions hollow out as young workers leave and old workers remain. Demographics collapse as fertility falls and dependency ratios rise. Ironic, really: anti‑immigration sentiment produces the very globalisation its supporters resent. Block the worker, and the factory moves, the goods arrive instead, the demographic pyramid inverts. You can restrain labour, but you cannot restrain arithmetic.

Adam Smith warned that restrictions on labour mobility were a violation of natural liberty — an eighteenth‑century way of saying that such rules protect incumbents at the expense of everyone else. Immigration controls raise domestic wages artificially, raise prices for consumers, reduce competition, entrench inefficiency, and subsidise native labour at the expense of the global poor. This is protectionism by another name. And once you accept protectionism in labour, you have accepted the principle that economic policy must be directed by the Government for the public good. And that free markets do not deliver the optimum national outcomes.  A country can choose many things — a managed economy, a protectionist economy, a high‑skill selective system, a low‑migration demographic strategy. All of these are legitimate political choices. But what a country cannot choose is to restrict labour while claiming to champion free markets. That is not a philosophy; it is a branding exercise.

Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter 10

#Adam Smith #David Ricardo #free markets #liberty #economics #politics #capitalism

The Crash of 2028-an old blog revisited

It’s our occasional habit here to make serious points in a light-hearted sort of way. So when last summer (LSS 30 6 25) we published a piece called Why the Crash of 2028 was so bad….. , we felt we’d made our peace with certain worrying trends in the insurance market, and duly moved on. Except-we must have hit a raw nerve with some of you, because you keep reading it. So what did that old blog say-and has anything changed to make its predictions more accurate?

It was based on some pretty reliable sources [1] [2] including McKinsey and the Finacial Times. In a nutshell, we argued that continuing destruction due to climate change would make property uninsurable in large areas. That this in turn would cause some insurers to go bankrupt, leading to demands for Government bailouts just as the US Government was running at the fiscal limit. Confidence, we said, would fall quickly. Leading to fire sales in asset prices of all sorts, especially Equities and Bonds.  Above all we predicted that recovery would be much more difficult than it had been in 2008, because nations had turned away from co operation and towards nationalist, tariff driven positions, a bit  like the autarchy that proceeded the Second World War How then have we shaped up? Have thing got worse, better or stayed the same?

One constant is the risk from climate change.[3] When something as staid, solid and utterly unexcitable as the Yale Law Journal publishes something like this [4] we know we’re in for a bumpy ride. As for International Co operation-ask them in the Middle East how that has changed since 2025. And Taiwan ? Nothing in the recent summit suggests Mr Trump has achieved anything to deter Mr Xi from his long term ambitions. But most worrying of all is all the warning lights suddenly flashing “Red” in the  Bond Markets today. [5] If you’re wondering why anyone should care about a so‑called “bond market rout”, the answer is simple: government bonds are the bedrock of the entire financial system. When their prices fall sharply, the cost of money rises everywhere else — mortgages, business loans, pensions, bank funding, all of it. A sudden jump in yields isn’t just market noise; it’s the system quietly saying it now trusts governments a little less than it did yesterday. And when the safest assets start to look less safe, everything built on top of them has to be repriced. That’s why experts twitch.

LSS does not give financial advice-we are not financially trained. But we have read our economics. And our History. And today, our worries have grown just that little bit more.

[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/climate-change-and-p-and-c-insurance-the-threat-and-opportunity

this piece by pitilla clark of the Financial Times is well worth jumping the paywall:

[2]https://www.ft.com/content/9e5df375-650d-492e-ba51-fb5a34e6ddd6

#global warming #climate change #financial markets #stock market crash #investor #economics

New references

[3] There has been a sudden increase in the rate of sea level rise | New Scientist

[4]The Uninsurable Future: The Climate Threat to Property Insurance, and How to Stop It | Yale Law Journal

[5] Bond market rout deepens as investors fear ‘stagflationary shock’ from higher oil prices – business live

#global warming #insurance #property #bond market #finacial system #middle east #geopolitics

Farewell Robert Skidelsky. If you want to know more about the current mess, read this

No one over thirty will forget the terrifying autumn of 2008. For on September 15th of that year the collapse of Lehman Brothers initiated the acute phase of a chronic financial crisis, tumbling the world economy towards final ruin. And as the indefatigable Larry Elliott [1] notes in  the Guardian, in his masterly obituary of Robert Skidelsky, the ruling classes of the west  were utterly bewildered:

…… there was almost universal disbelief that the crisis was happening. The entire economic establishment – politicians, bankers, Treasury officials, analysts and pundits – were caught unawares, because according to the free-market orthodoxy there was no chance of such a catastrophe occurring

Robert Skidelsky (1929-2026) might have known better. Having devoted a lifetime to studying the works of John Maynard Keynes, he presumably shared that thinker’s suspicion of the axiomatic beneficence of untrammelled Free Markets. Ironically by the summer of 2008 even he felt the Keynesian game was up, and was contemplating other projects, as Elliott points out. Then, as they say-It happened.

For a few fleeting months Keynes was in vogue again, so desperate was the plight of the Great and Good. Interest rates were cut. Money printed. Governments borrowed and spent, Catastrophe was averted. And then? Well, in Britain the Cameron government was elected and reverted to the via dolorosa of financial orthodoxy. Cutting the budget was all that mattered, as if a nation was like a grocer’s shop in a small market town. Keynes was firmly shown the door: and the consequences of poverty, lost growth, wasted lives and appalling political outcomes are with us to this day.

Like Keynes, Skidelsky was not a tribal Party man, having variously flirted with Labour, the SDP, the Tories, and even Jeremy Corbyn in his time. Both Keynes and Skidelsky preferred solutions that worked, reason and evidence over belief and emotion. And both knew that Keynes’ essential insight was that money is about a lot more than just cash, or even more sophisticated accountants’ tricks like stocks and shares. Money is really a network of obligations, contracts, promises and deliveries which facilitate the flow of energy through human societies and by which they live. Any system which depends ultimately on the unregulated competition of lone individuals will ultimately corrupt the information and break the trust on which all depend. A truth now lost in the declining plutocracies of the west, but which certain other parties have understood very well

[1] Lord Skidelsky obituary | Robert Skidelsky | The Guardian

[2] Skidelsky, Robert. John Maynard Keynes: 1883–1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman. London: Penguin Books.

#robert skidelski #JM Keynes #economics #politics #financial crash

Neo Liberalism to National Market Liberalism: is this a Great Global Transformation?

“The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’”

These words of  Ronald Reagan were  the  best and most concise  summary ever of the creed of Neoliberalism, which he shared so avidly with Margaret Thatcher. They called themselves Conservatives: but their belief was utterly radical, dominating all public discourse and transforming the world at least until the Great Crash of 2007-2008.

The radical nature of that transformation is laid out by Branko  Milanović in The Great Global Transformation. We have two reviews for you, one via the inestimable Nature Briefing [1] and the other by Ivan Radanović for the equally prestigious London Review of Books [2] As ever we won’t spoil these excellent pieces, humbly begging you to read both.  However we  could not resist this  passage from Radanović’s review. For it highlights the contradiction at the heart of the Reagan led project which would ultimately bring it crashing down:

For Branko Milanović and many others, China is at the centre of the current ideological paradigm shift. China’s rise, enabled by global neoliberalism, also made the end of global neoliberalism inevitable, by growing too big to be integrated into a global order whose rules are written by the US and its allies.

The Chinese saw a blindspot which the complacent westerners had missed: if you build an economy where the private sector is good and the state bad, how do you cope when foreign governments act like private companies? In Britain many utilities privatised by Thatcher are owned by foreign governments: is that Socialism or Capitalism? The shrewd rulers of China simply flipped this conundrum: the State and the Communist Party oversee the activities of a thriving private sector. Is that Socialism or Capitalism? In which case, what do words like “Conservative”, “Liberal” and Neo Liberal” really mean?

 Milanović worthily joins a list of critics of the Neoliberal project including Wilkinson and Pickett, Thomas Piketty,  and Will Hutton. It is easy to see Neoliberalism’s faults now, but it was very popular once. And before we rejoice its final passing, what follows may be very much darker indeed.

[1]“Nationalism grows on the terrain of never-satiated mass plenty and greed,” writes economist Branko Milanovic in his new book, The Great Global Transformation. Milanovic argues that globalization benefited previously poor populations, notably those in China, and the already rich, but left the middle and lower classes in countries such as the United States behind. The result is “the exponential growth of ‘nationalism, greed and property’”, writes sociologist Roberto Patricio Korzeniewicz in his review. “For Milanovic, greed is the iron cage of our times, and our future is bleak.”

Nature | 7 min read

[2] Branko Milanović – is neoliberalism being replaced by something more capitalist? – LSE Review of Books

The Great Global Transformation: National Market Liberalism in a Multipolar World. Branko Milanović. Allen Lane. 2025.

#politics #economics #Ronald Reagan  #free markets #capitalism #socialism #communism

Why Taxes are good for you #7: but why you still won’t want to pay them

It’s time to wrap up our counter-intuitive series Why Taxes are good for you. We started it as a slightly cheeky riposte to the massively funded and relentlessly intolerant opposition who insist that taxes must be, always and everywhere, a despicable evil. In the first part we met the industrious but not very knowledgeable Dave Watford who expounded upon the best of their arguments from his post at the bar of the Dog and Duck. We went on to learn the rather chilling truths about life in a low tax nirvana, where their are no laws, roads nor health services and violent death lies around every corner. Part three considered the little known but incredibly well documented story of 18th Century China whose low taxes led it to be conquered by the tax- funded armies of ruthlessly hypocritical western nations. Whatever else they are for, taxes are good for your health as we showed in part 4. We felt that part 5, despite being a historical argument, was crucial. No taxes equals no economy. And if you really do want to get rich, the best chance of doing it is by starting from a well-taxed society, as our part six concluded. We provided lots of links and books and that sort of thing for you to read in order to draw your own conclusions. And so we said ” Quod erat demonstrandum

Except it wasn’t. Isn’t. And probably never will be. Because we forgot one thing. The benefits of taxes are long term, and require an immediate short term loss. Think how Dave Watford sees it. Money taken from his pocket to pay for armies, nurses, roads is not there now. Indeed, some of those hospitals, schools and museums may not even have been built yet. But Dave feels that loss of money very personally. Money which he could spend here, and now on, any number of Bright Shiny Things. And it is no good telling him “Dave-most of these Bright Shiny Things, that you covet so desperately, will have no value in the long term. Remember how you longed for an Austin Healey, a record by the Bay City Rollers, Watneys Red Barrel, a bottle of Hirondelle, a quadrophonic stereo? All good in their day, no doubt-but are they quite what they were, have not other things come along to take their places?

But Dave knows things that we do not. Has studied authors that we have never heard of. Like Thorstein Veblen who as long ago as 1899 showed that people buy Bright Shiny Things not because those things are useful, but to signal the wealth, status and sophistication of the buyer. To consume conspicuously, ostentatiously, vainly, and emptily. To doom themselves thereby to domination by rich men, and to conquest by foreign ones. Oh well. We tried to warn.

Veblen, T: The Theory of the Leisure Class: An Economic Study in the Evolution of Institutions (1899).

#economics #taxes # finance #history #veblen #consumer society #production #marketing

Why taxes are good for you #6: The best thing for an Enterprise Economy

As we approach the end of this series, we could not resist two more arguments which have always irritated the “taxes are evil” lobby. If only because we haven’t met one of them who has come up with a convincing counter argument. And the first should be beloved of all: taxes are a superb way to control inflation. As Britain and the US began to gear up for the Second World War the sheer enormity of the spending needed ran the risk of runaway inflation. It was Keynes in How to Pay for the War who saw the answer. Taxes, he argued would not provide the money; they would suck excess cash from everyones’ wallets , thereby keeping prices on a relatively stable trajectory. The US applied a similar philosophy in its own way [1] The economy grew at unprecedented rate, bringing prosperity to all. And there was a an even more significant side effect, which led to prosperity lasting for decades thereafter.

Because in both Britain and the US, vast defence spending contracts generated an equally vast ecology of institutions, government departments, University research labs and the rest. All beavering away at new discoveries, new ideas and shiny technologies. No wonder the years 1945 -1970 are remembered so fondly as times of progress and prosperity . Names like Rolls Royce, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas are just the tiniest iceberg tips. If you want to know more, trying kicking off from the site of the US’ famous famous DARPA[2] a seed bed for an almost fractal cornucopia of new ideas. Even things we use today like GPS, the internet, and advanced semiconductors are all horses from this stable. By contrast, the economic ascendancy of western countries only really declined after the tax and regulation reforms of the Thatcher-Reagan years when Proud Finance finally crushed Humble Industry.

Why does this all work? Because ultimately the State is able to take a risk which private enterprise capital cannot. We don’t blame them: this is not a moral failing, just a question of numbers and distributed risk. Its true that in some countries private banks have a much more supportive relationship with their local industries: but these tend to be lands where such innovations as Regulations and Industrial Planning are celebrated, and not seen as wicked socialist evils. Leave aside the fact that taxes pay for the roads, hospitals and schools which provide entrepreneurs with a ready supply of able workers. Their real benefit is to create a vast pool of opportunity in which enterprise can afford to reach losses and profits in turn, and keep coming back for more. After all-what use is a football club without a League to play in? We will be revisiting these and other thoughts in the last of our series. Hold on to your seats.

[1]https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/wwii-and-its-aftermath

[2]https://www.darpa.mil/research

#fiscal #tax #financialisation #keynes #second world war #inflation #research and development #history #economics