blogging new ideas in science, business, learning
A big thank you to all our readers, contributors and ideas-people at the end of another long year. The blog is read in so many different countries, and we are deeply humbled that so many seem to like our eclectic mix of science, economics and diverse other topics which so many of you have been kind to suggest.
So a Happy Christmas and New Year to all of you, of any faith or none. Please eat and drink responsibly and we look forward to serving as a clearing-house of your ideas next year
Ask yourself -“why does the headline below matter so much?” Go on, think before you read below it.
State Pension Age should remain at 66 for decades due to stalling life expectancy (Daily Mail 20 December 2021) [1]
Alright, we’ll tell you why. Because life expectancy should not be falling in a society like the United Kingdom. From the industrial revolution onwards it has been rising for centuries. Men and women can expect to live for decades longer than their Georgian or Victorian ancestors [2] With the truly astonishing richness of medical and scientific knowledge available, we should expect more rises-or at at least a long steady plateau. But since about 2010 it has been declining. Something is very, very wrong.
The media bombards us daily with stories that seem important-Mr Putin, Global Warming, Covid, football, GDP,fashion……. Some are doubtless significant in the long term, others less so. Governments, companies, and individuals spin the best gloss on all of these things all of the time. That’s why it’s important to look beneath, at the deep trends revealed by the slow patient work of people like actuaries, academics and statisticians. The UK economy is no longer delivering.
Why does this disturb us? Older readers will remember something called the Soviet Union which was continually pushing out barrages of propaganda about how good life was there, and how everything they did was getting better. Yet in 1976 a man called Emmanuel Todd published a work called La Chute Finale (The Final Fall) in which he predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. By a careful reading of the statistics which the USSR published (and those they seemed eager not to publish) he was able to show that the economy was badly failing its citizens. And that therefore Trouble would come.
You know the rest. The test of any theory is if its predictions come true, and Todd was right on. So, if the UK economy is malfunctioning, and official pronouncements are empty boasts, what next for us in these islands?
we thank Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for the idea for this story
[1]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10328013/State-pension-age-REMAIN-66-decades-report-claims.html
[2]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58893328
[3] Emmanuel Todd La Chute Finale Robert Lafford 1976
One of the more thoughtful followers of this blog offered us a speculation: could the omicron variant of SARS-Cov-2 be the beginning of the end of this shattering pandemic? It’s an intriguing thought. Essentially his model is : because omicron is so infectious, it rapidly spreads through enormous numbers, inducing widespread immunity. The next evolving variant will find it hard to obtain a toehold in such a protected population. Successive waves grow weaker and weaker, and life in the twenties gradually returns to some sort of pre-pandemic normal. Eminently possible, and it got us thinking- what is the medium term future of this virus?
One thing we’ve noticed-the readers of LSS are an independent-minded lot who like to make their own conclusions, But we’ve found one excellent paper by Ewen Callaway in Nature: Beyond Omicron…….[1],which we think might give you all a place to start. It’s shrewd, because it tries to compare our experiences of SARS-Cov-2 with those of our viruses like 229E and the influenza family. It’s trustworthy because it admits the limitations of our knowledge (pub bores, Conservative MPs and conspiracy theorists take note). It’s incisive because it ask questions like “will the virus evolve by increasing its replication rate, or by changing its makeup to evade existing antibodies?” There are lots more reasons to hit the link, including some excellent graphs. We think every parent, everyone with vulnerable relatives, or just concerned citizens should look at Ewen’s paper-and it’s written really clearly.
However, there are deeper issues for us at this blog. Even if Covid-19 turns out to be something dangerous but manageable, like flu, what other respiratory viruses might suddenly spike, sending the economy and our lives into another tailspin? They’re still chopping down the forests with brutal glee in places like Brazil, and there’s little doubt that practice is the ultimate origin of viruses like the SARS family and many others, whatever the immediate antecedents of the alpha variant in 2019. Then there is the growing likelihood of a strain of antibiotic-resistant bacteria killing its way through swathes of helpless people. Maybe we need a new normal, where more attention is paid to things like medical research and public health. And less to frantic races to buy bright shiny gorgeous things whose real value is shown by how quickly they pass to landfill. Oh well. We tried.
[1]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03619-8
#Sars-Cov-2 #coronavirus #covid-19 #public health #economy
Progress comes from those prepared to think afresh
Artificial Intelligence no laughing matter- AI seems ready to do anything these days. But it can’t seem to write jokes. At least, according to a fascinating article in the Financial Times by Gillian Tett, it can’t:
https://www.ft.com/content/a71171ea-9483-4e87-8c50-fe9a3df81cd6
How bad is Omicron? Things go wrong when people jump to conclusions based on insufficient evidence. The following from Nature is a master class in how to defer judgement until all the facts are in
So far, evidence on the severity of the disease caused by the Omicron coronavirus variant is scarce and incomplete. Early results suggest a glimmer of hope: reports from South Africa have consistently noted a lower rate of hospitalization as a result of Omicron compared to the Delta variant. However, data from Denmark and England do not back this up. The jury is still out, and scientists emphasize that a rapidly spreading variant could dangerously strain health-care systems, even if the risk of severe disease or death is relatively low for any individual. “A small fraction of a very large number is still a large number,” says infectious-disease epidemiologist Mark Woolhouse. Much of the outcome will depend on external factors, such as rates of previous coronavirus infection and vaccination.Nature | 6 min read
Think of animals this Christmas We are certain many of our readers will think of animal charities in their Christmas giving (example: Britain’s RSPCA is a good place to start) But what about the apparently well-cared for furry friends in your home? According to Jacqueline Boyd of the Conversation, the festivities can be perilous for them too.
https://theconversation.com/christmas-can-be-hazardous-for-pets-heres-what-to-look-out-for-173345?
The Skeptic’s view of Climate Change If you frequent certain public houses or patronise certain newspapers who -how to put this delicately?-place a higher emphasis on emotion than reason-you will still find individuals who will try to muddy the waters on climate change. Before you are tempted to waste time on them, look at this link from The Skeptic by Donald R Prothero, How we know Global Warming is real and Human Caused which turns every denier or delayer argument into a pumpkin. Then has a pretty strong dig at the motives of deniers. Strong Stuff.
https://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/12-02-08/
Just to add to the above…for us the key realisation of the dangers of global warming came when we saw the C12/C13 isotope ratios for the last 150 years. Here’s a little piece to explain it from Skeptical Science
https://skepticalscience.com/human-fingerprint-in-global-warming.html
We said at the start that progress comes from those who are prepared to think about things in new ways. That’s how everything from tools to the anti-slavery movement were invented. That doesn’t mean embracing every far-out cult or conspiracy we see on line-remember the word “think” in the first sentence? But we do know that those who insist on carrying on in the old way, because that’s the way they’ve always thought, are the real enemies of anything ever getting better.
Have a good festive week, and we’ll try as hard as we can to have another round up before Christmas.
#sars-cov-2 #covid-19 #climate change #global warming #artificial intelligence #animal welfare
Nothing seems to match so well with the warm cheerful colours of a Christmas-decorated home than the Bloody Mary. And nothing is better calculated to sharpen the appetite than its acerbic mix of tomatoes and tangy sauces. Which is why we are handing over lock, stock and barrel to out link, written by Alex Turnbull of Time magazine, who joyously celebrates 100 years of this famous drink. We can’t match Alex’s prose or pictures-read it to find out why. All we can say is that the Bloody Mary was invented in the famous Harry’s Bar in Paris in 1921. What we will do is give a measured recipe, as there does not seem to be one in the article. Old LSS hands will feel another reference to the immortal Ultimate Cocktail Book from Hamlyn coming on. And they’d be right
In a nice tall straight glass, mix 1 measure of vodka, 3 measures of tomato juice,2 dashes of Worcestershire sauce, a good squeeze of lemon juice , a more than adequate dash of tabasco and chuck in four ice cubes. Mix, add salt and pepper to taste and decorate with a nice large stick of celery Paper straws optional.
We find it goes superbly with all those piquant pre-dinner meaty nibbles like chorizo and jamon serrano. But unless you are very quick you’ll have to sample its delights at home, not in France. For as we write, gentle readers it is now less than six hours to the infamous Covid inspired travel ban which will ban all revellers from La Belle France. We know personally of one intrepid soul who slipped away this morning via Stanstead and Bordeaux. But when will she be back-if ever?
https://time.com/6129152/bloody-mary-cocktail/
#cocktail #anniversary #harry’s bar #covid-19
We wake to news that the admirable Poonwalla family, of Serum Institute fame, is to donate a whopping £50m to Oxford University’s Jenner Institute. [1] The money will fund more cutting-edge research in many areas of health, but some at least will be set aside for the Holy Grail of a Malaria vaccine. Imagine the difference one of those would make to so many lives.
We could allow ourselves a wry smile at persons from the Indian subcontinent funding their erstwhile imperial masters. But one thing we’ve noticed about Indians-they know which side their bread is buttered, and every pound spent in research now is thousands in profits later. The generous Poonwalla family joins an illustrious roll call of names that includes Carnegie, Gates, Tata, Soros, Buffet and many more. By why should people like that have to do all the heavy lifting?
For all the estimates indicate that at least $21 trillion is held in off shore accounts, tax havens and other queasy bolt holes. According to Frederick E Allen of Forbes, that is equal to the combined GDPs of the USA and Japan. (for the benefit of our more nervous readers, Forbes is not exactly what you would call a socialist outfit) The super rich always claim that their efforts add wealth to communities. Maybe so-but didn’t the acquisition of all those fortunes depend on the transport, education and defence systems which the rest of us have paid for? Readers of LSS, we challenge you-what could be done with just a fraction of those funds if we could get them back?
#poonwalla #oxford university #jenner institute #tax havens #super rich #offshore funds #india #uk
There’s an invisible, unstoppable menace which will claim one in 300 lives. It will cripple and paralyse its victims slowly and relentlessly and it will eventually kill them. As it did to Mao Zedong, Stephen Hawking, Lou Gehring and a host of others, famous or otherwise. Its generic name is MND, although a glance at our supporting sites[1] [2] will show how experts have divided it into several syndromes.
What is so frustrating is that the cause is still unknown. There may be genetic components; there may be factors like physical or chemical stresses. Somehow the nerves or their myelin sheaths seem to malfunction badly, leading to a catastrophic loss of function which soon brings great suffering to victims and their families. Only research offers any long term hope, but there appears to be relatively little of that, when you compare it to how much is spent on developing new computer games for example.
Why does humanity get its priorities so wrong? What’s so good about a tax cut, if you’re going to spend it on trashy consumer goods which will probably be in a landfill site in a couple of years? Yet money invested in basic scientific research often pays back many times over. We all know how techniques developed to analyse images of star fields were soon transferred to the analysis of medical samples on microscope slides. What would happen if Governments threw money into MND research, apart from curing the disease itself? In the meantime the brave souls of the MND association will continue to brave all weathers, tirelessly campaigning to raise exiguous funds for a few far sighted researchers who are trying to understand this terrible scourge. Please visit their site and if you can, try to make a donation. It will pay off somewhere.
[1] https://www.mndassociation.org/
[2] ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_neuron_disease
#mnd #research #mao zedong #stephen hawking #disease #nervous system
Gentle readers, read on, for today we bring you a list of fifty-count ’em, fifty– cocktails that have never been drunk in number 10 Downing Street. How could they have been ? It’s not as if the people who live and work there spend their time in parties or anything like that. So-no cocktails, no wine, no cheese. The only leisure drink must be a saucer of milk for Larry the Cat,[2] as far as we can see. And anyway, the guest list for even the largest was no more than thirty people. It is alleged.
Stern, noble, honest people they are , but how they are missing out! So, to show our appreciation for all the brilliant work they put in for the good governance of our country, we are proud to link to an amazing website called Vinepair. When the Covid-19 crisis is over the Downing Street Staff can consult our list and run up the most amazing end-of-lockdown rave, with Karaoke booming out over St James Park. They’re all here- Mojitos, Porn Star Martinis, Side Cars as well a ones we’ve never heard of like Penicillin and Bramble. The page, The Fifty Most Popular Cocktails,[1] has lovely simple pictures and and easy to follow recipes-which is just what we like. This Vinepair lot have most definitely cracked it.
Several readers have asked us to be a bit more responsible on cocktail nights, correctly pointing out that alcohol can be a dangerous drug if used irresponsibly. Good point. Take the future Downing Street Party we have recommended. Won’t all the booze and loud music be a bad influence on any young families that might be living close by? Don’t worry- the party is weeks away. There won’t be any young families living in the vicinity. By then.
[1]https://vinepair.com/articles/50-most-popular-cocktails-world-2017/
#boris johnson #parties #cheese #wine #10 downing street #cocktails #larrythe cat
those who want ot know more about Larry should redirect here
For our foreign readers:
No English tradition is older or more steeped in History than the autumn ritual of the “coming of the Men in Grey Suits.” Traditionally at the same time as the Lord Mayor’s Parade and the State Opening of Parliament, its origins date back in the mists of time, but the same rules have always been observed.
The custom is triggered when the traditional Conservative leader, such as Anthony Eden, Lord Home, Edward Heath, Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Ian Duncan Smith, William Hague , Michael Howard, Theresa May (that’s enough names-ed) are traditionally held to be so lacking in even the most miserable vestiges of support and authority that their removal to the dung heap of history is deemed to be essential to the traditional Survival of the Conservative Party. At this point, deep in the Palace of Westminster, certain men (led by the traditional Sir Graham Brady) put on the time-hallowed grey suits and go round to the Prime Minister’s Office.
The Prime Minister then utters the traditional Formula reserved for such occasions-“there was no party, well, only one to my knowledge, which I don’t have, because I wasn’t there so how could I know anything about it, and we’re doing well on the vaccine rollout, and I’ve asked Sir Simon Briefcase to investigate it, and he couldn’t possibly have been there, it is alleged, because they never happened, and anyway all the rules were followed. Or something like that.”
After the traditional offerings of a revolver and a bottle of whisky, the Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party is formally escorted by the men in grey suits to a special house, very often in Chester Square, where he/she spends the remainder of her/his/its days bitterly plotting to undermine his/her successor, while everyone else tries to pretend he/she never existed.
Next week: A traditional English Christmas. Perhaps.
#boris johnson #10 downing street #party season #politics #conservative party @Kevin_Maguire
A thoughtful reader has written to point out that our ancient enthusiasm for a Severn Barrage (LSS 6 Dec 2021) could have resulted in the destruction of thousands of wading birds. True-but a charge to which we are tempted to plead “not guilty, guv”. For our precious barrage dream was a long time ago, and modern methods of tidal power referenced in yesterday’s little blog are a lot more nature-friendly.
But it raises a very serious question. If you are going to start putting in any scheme of climate amelioration, what cost are you prepared to pay in existing wildlife? You can never have your cake and eat it, whatever certain politicians will tell you. Or can you?
Because news reaches us via Jesus A Caña of El País [1] of an exciting scheme in the Bay of Cádiz (That’s CAH-diz, anglophones) to convert the vast salt marshes there into a carbon capture scheme. Europe’s first serious one in fact. The marshes have been producing salt, mainly for food preservation, for over 2,500 years, but the invention of the refrigerator has sent them into decline. Channels are silting up, and no one is left to fight pollution. Now a new scheme from UCIN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature, in English) will restore and reforest the marshes, paying for it all buy selling bonds to high carbon entrepreneurs.
“Egrets, we’ve had a few”, as Frank Sinatra memorably observed. But the bay is home to dozens of other species including ospreys, waterfowl and, rather amazingly, flamingos. Who knows, the new scheme could multiply habitats for these iconic birds(and the species that support their lives) and still deliver a real punch in the fight to bring down CO2 levels. Cake indeed.
Jesus’ article will tell you a lot more, with some great pictures. But it’s in Spanish, so some of you might like to use a translator app
#carbon capture #wildlife #conservation #sustainability #nature #salt marsh
Learning, Science and Society 