After Covid, there could be another epidemic. It might be bubonic plague

Surely that all went away in the Middle Ages-Robin Hood and all that?

Well, not really. It’s still endemic in many countries, including the United States. Between 2010 and 2015 there were 3248 cases around the world, causing 584 deaths.

Is it a fairly painless way to go?

Not quite. Let’s say you get bitten by a flea. The bacteria (Yersinia pestis) invade your lymph nodes, which swell up to agonising proportions, called buboes. You also get muscle cramps and spasms, coughing blood and your skin decays and peels off. In the end death is due to generalised organ failure. If untreated you have about a 90% chance of death. But it’s not exactly a fun thing to go through even if you live.

But if I keep away from fleas?

Unfortunately, there are also the septicaemic and pneumonic forms which are even more deadly. But they usually depend on a good flea-born infection rate to get going.

So that’s all right then. Surely there aren’t as many rats and fleas around as there were in the good old days?

We keep them under control with public health measures. But don’t forget, rats are becoming more and more resistant to poisons, and so are fleas. And the general response of public health to Covid 19 has been quite poor in some countries. Anyway the disease can hide in many types of small mammals.

Why are Doctors worried?

It so deadly that it could make a deadly biological weapon. This has been tried several times in history, most recently by the Japanese Imperial Army in 1941. We now have the knowledge that could let someone quickly engineer resistant rats and fleas-and Bob’s your uncle, as they say.

Remind me –what happened in the past?

Well, there’s been lots of outbreaks. The Big Ones were the Black Death of 1347, which is estimated to have wiped out between 30%-60% of the population. And the Plague of Justinian in 541. Records are scarcer but contemporary chroniclers speak of 5000 people a day dying in Constantinople, and ships drifting with all the crews dead.

Have we any hope?

Yersinia pestis can be killed with antibiotics. But as you know, bacteria too are becoming more and more resistant, just like fleas and rats. Unless we try to get ahead, we could be at the mercy of a rogue state or terrorist organisation at any time.

Could I just deny it exists?

Of course-it’s your right as a free person! However the long term outlook for those who try to make up reality is never good, as certain American politicians know only too well.  Having an opinion and being right are not always the same thing.

Bubonic plague – Wikipedia

The Fate of Rome by Kyle Harper Princeton 2017

#bubonicplague #pandemic #epidemic #covid-19 #biologicalwarfare #terrorism #roguestate #antibioticresistance

In praise of Zdenek Burian. The art of science

Have you ever wondered what it really felt like to live in another time, far remote from our own? Perhaps when early reptiles first became mammals, or round the campfire with some cannibal early humans? If so, nothing will get you closer then the work of Czech artist Zdenek Burian (1905-1981).

Starting out as a commercial artist, he came to collaborate with Czech scientist Professor Josef Augusta. Together they embarked on the finest canon of Paleoart ever created. If the early works owe something to pioneer Charles Knight, then Burian soon left this mentor far behind, producing works whose depth, dynamism and attention to detail cannot be matched. His landscapes capture the vast emptiness of the primeval. His action paintings, the swift movements of dinosaurs and primitive fish in mortal chase and combat. His portraits, whether of Neanderthals or mammoths create real presence and personality for their subjects. His landscapes recall Brueghel or Constable. His use of colour is like Rembrandt‘s. His eye for light and mood is as good as anything in Vermeer-or Edward Hopper, a contemporary whose work also massively transcended its commercial purpose.

It’s true that scientific advance has rendered some of his work a little inaccurate. Australopithecines did not have apelike feet, they were entirely modern. If Brachiosaurs had been as deep in the water as Burian depicts them, they would have suffocated immediately. But he worked with best that the science of the time could tell him, and to cavil would be like rejecting VelazquezSeige of Breda on the grounds that details of the soldiers’ uniforms are inaccurate. Sorry, you’re missing the point.

His corpus was vast. If you want to immerse yourself in it, we have a Wikipedia link below as a jumping-off point. But good litho reproductions can be found as illustrations to the books be produced with Augusta and later Professor Spinar, which can be picked off at good prices from sites like e bay and Amazon. As you revel in the art, remember the science. For final recognition came in 2017 when the first wholly Czech dinosaur was named Burianosaurus augusta, in the honour of two fine men.

Zdeněk Burian – Wikipedia

#zdenekburian #josefaugusta #paleoart #dinosaurs #earlyhumans #evolution #paleonto;ogy

The Scottish Question-it’s strategic

As 2020 draws to a close, we predict that the question of Britain’s immediate relationship with Europe will start to drop down the agenda; by January there will be a deal or no deal, and we shall cope one way or another. No, we think the Big Existential Question for next year will be Scottish Independence. And. although we won’t take sides now, or ever, we think it’s worth considering at the historical aspect, which so far has been overlooked in more immediate questions of sovereignty and power.

From William I until Robert Walpole, every ruler of England faced a strategic dilemma. There was always a a neighbour, potentially hostile, with a land border in the north. Thus if England committed itself too heavily in a European war, its continental adversaries could drum up a land invasion to divide English forces, blunting their effect on both fronts. It could be parried, but at enormous cost. The danger was acute for monarchs as far apart in time as Stephen, Edward III and Henry VIII.

The Act of Union of 1707 closed this danger down. It meant that one centre of strategic power now controlled the whole landmass from Torquay to Thurso. As the Royal Navy could now sail unimpeded from Scottish as well as English ports, it meant the island was effectively immune from invasion-a strategic card of immense power in the hand of any statesman. As any soldier knows it is very difficult to invade a country when you have to land on a hostile shore where the enemy controls all the roads, strongpoints and obedience of the population. Much easier when your forces have the support of an adjoining nation, where you can build up in peace until the time comes to launch.

And so we predict that intelligent members of Britain’s High command will even now be whispering in Boris Johnson‘s ear, urging him of the strategic dangers of “losing” Scotland. Not to Britain, but to England. We flatter ourselves that you read it here first.

#borisjohnson #england #scotland #scottishindependence #brexit #referendum #britain #unitedkingdom #nicolasturgeon #snp #conservativeparty

Magnetism and free speech. Just a few quick thoughts to round up the week

Our readers have busy lives, as do we in the world of commerce and retail. But here’s time for a couple of thoughts which we hoped you might like. Well, we think they’re intriguing!

Nick Cohen on free speech

The reason we call Nick Cohen the new George Orwell is not because of his fearlessness, nor his razor sharp mind. It’s because he’s so objective. You’ll find his pieces scattered from left to right from the Guardian far out to the Spectator. It’s because he sees the fools and knaves in every camp, and so should we. Here he is from the Spectator on the current culture wars ravaging Cambridge University.

Cambridge academics have just won an important battle for free speech | The Spectator

Magnetism- a mystery unlocked

We at LSS have always been baffled by magnetism. Electricity- we know about that. You need it to turn on the lights, and there’s things like amps and ohms and volts which are OK if you can get your head around the equations. But magnetism?-it’s like electricity’s mysterious sister. It’s there, alright, but why, and what makes it tick? Now a fascinating new theory attempts to understand it using game theory, specifically the once popular 15 puzzle. It’s funny how something from one place suddenly turns up in another branch of learning. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

A Child’s Puzzle Has Helped Unlock the Secrets of Magnetism (getpocket.com)

we thank Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for this story

Twins Peak

Fans of amateur astronomy should note the Geminid meteor shower which should peak some time around Monday December 14th. A pair of binoculars should actually be better than a telescope. But how many times do we have to say it- observe after dark, when there is no danger of looking into the Sun. Because that will be the last thing you will see. Here’s Joanna Whitehead in the I

How to see Geminid meteor shower 2020 in the UK: What time to watch, when Geminids peak and what to look for (inews.co.uk)

we thank Mr Gary Herbert of Buckinghamshire for this story

Well, that’s it for this week. We have to go now, for all sorts of reasons. Have a good weekend.

#geminids #astronomy #magnetism #15 #electromagnetism #nickcohen #cambridgeuniversity #freespeech #respect #tolerate

Friday Night Cocktails comes to you from Texas, USA. Sort of.

Tonight’s contributor is our old friend and stalwart colleague Tracy Ann Ball

Alright, what is it?Margarita  
And where did you sample it?La Mansion del Rio Riverwalk, San Antonio, Texas, USA  
What, you mean in Texas? Good heavens, weren’t there lots of cowboys about?   No- I was with my  husband Jon, seated outside overlooking the river at Trev’s Bistro  
And what ingredients did Trev use?Patron orange liqueur, Grand Marnier, Patron reposado tequila, agave nectar and lime juice  
Gosh, that’s a mouthful-was it good?Well, firstly it was delicious, not watery, but strong and flavourful, without tasting massively alcoholic. It seemed the essence of our Texas holiday. It was served in a pretty, coloured, swirly glass and we were sat on a terrasse overlooking the river watching the world go by under a blue sky while the girls were enjoying the pool.
Add a bit more for less fortunate readers…………It was warm and sunny, some people were working on the planting along the riverbank, but most people were strolling, enjoying the surroundings
And your husband?Jon liked it too!

#texas #sanantonio #margarita #cocktails #friday night

On the joys of owning an e-bike:(health tip-you could learn a lot from this)

Paul Larsmon

Journalist, commentator, economist and now e- bike aficionado

I was probably around four or five when I learned how to ride a proper bicycle, two wheels not three, and no stabilisers. It was in the yard of my dad’s family farm in Norway, struggling to stay upright on a pig-iron heavy lady’s bone shaker. My older brother Dave was running along behind, clutching the saddle to keep me vertical – until he wasn’t. I sensed his absence and knew, immediately, that I could now ride a bike. And all that meant in terms of freedom.

I’ve been riding bikes ever since – rushing around suburban pavements to meet up with childhood friends; tearing down forest paths against the stop-watch with cow-horn handlebars and no sense of mortality. Commuter cycling to the station, sticking the bike in a slam door guard’s van and then hurtling across London sans helmet, sans fear (and still without a sense of mortality).

And latterly, mostly on hybrids, be-jeaned and be-shorted .   Unlike wrapped-in-Lycra friends, who spent more on their wheels than I did on a whole bike.  But I’m not sure they enjoyed the sights, smells and sounds of the countryside any more than me. Mostly they always looked unhappy and in pain.

And then, well, I got older. Hills and headwinds conspired to curb my enthusiasm. The bicycle stayed in the garage, garnering cobwebs. I started thinking about mortality.

It was a chance encounter with the bike of my chum Lindsay’s wife that changed everything. Lynda’s bicycle had a motor! Four power settings so naturally, being male, I went straight to the top one and took off down their cul-de-sac like Barry Sheene. Later I learned that, legally, the battery-powered motors must cut out at 15.5 mph. But of course, you can get to that mind-bending velocity as slowly or quickly as you like.

Anyway, it changed my life. Straddling my e-bike, I have been on many day rides (even during Covid) and, pre-plague, on a few longer trips: the Peace Trail around the Ypres battlefields for example, and 150-odd miles across North Devon. Both in the excellent company of said Lindsay, who now has his own e-bike.

So here, as they say, is the science.

An e-bike is not a moped. It’s a normal bicycle aided by a battery charged electric motor. This is usually situated in the rear wheel hub. The battery is charged from a normal three pin plug and takes a few hours to go from zero to full. Charging will cost no more than 10p.

The bike has gears (usually 7/8) and you still have to pedal. The heart beat rises! At the end of a full day you feel knackered and in need of beer!

There are usually four power modes, so you can choose how much you want to be assisted. As you would expect, the higher power you choose, the less the range. Battery capacities vary. I found that on a fairly hilly route (eg  up to Exmoor and down again), I could easily do 50 miles. But the size of the battery is an important consideration, dependent on what sort of cycle trips you are planning.

There is as big a range of e-bikes as there is for the ordinary variety: hybrids, mountains, fold-ups…

And, of course, prices vary hugely.

I’d go for mid-range. One of the big price drivers with traditional bikes is weight. So you pay more for less (a bit like designer bikinis). But weight isn’t really so important when you have a motor. I reckon you can get a very decent ebike for around £1500. 

So – it’s good for you.

It’s good for the environment (especially if it stops you getting in the car).

And it’s good for your smile!

What’s not to like?

FACT BOX

  • Sales of electric bikes tripled during the UK’s Covid summer (Halfords)
  • UK consumers bought 100,000 ebikes in 2020, up 40% on the previous year (Mintel)
  • Ebike sales are expected to more than double by 2025, to 6.5 million units (The Confederation of the European Bicycle Industry – Yes! It exists!)
  • The UK government is planning subsidies to encourage ebike buying which could see prices slashed by 30% (The Times)

#e-bike #cycling #health #lifestyle #ypres

Chris Ryder-fearlessly brave and fair

Wars are always bad, and the people who fight them are too, usually. They have to be to survive. So any glamorization of one side as heroic freedom fighters and the other as The Evil is nearly always a simplification for children and elderly men with a drink problem. Anyone who has studied the troubles in Spain’s Basque Country knows this well. In the British Isles, no one knew it better than Chris Ryder, a veteran reporter on the Northern Ireland beat, with both sides in his contacts book, and a healthy scepticism for the claims of each.

Ryder was correspondent for both Sunday Times and then Telegraph. Because of his reporting, the Provisionals soon planned to kill him, but were dissuaded because of the PR damage it would inflict upon their cause. His admiration for the courage of the security forces was manifest, but:

…… Ryder did not shy away from the controversies that dogged the regiment. He faced full-on the issue of secret dual membership of the UDR with loyalist paramilitaries and the regiment’s reputation as a sectarian force among the nationalist population, arguing that the UDR would have to be disbanded as part of necessary reforms to the security system.

Courage indeed to attack your own side, especially given the insane passions of the time.

Off duty he was a generous man, husband and bon viveur. We link his full Guardian obituary below, from which our quote is taken. What could intelligent people like him achieve in peace, if they lived in a place where their neighbours had not descended into a sociopathic and futile conflict, like all the others?

Chris Ryder obituary | Media | The Guardian

we thank Mr Lindsay Charlton of Kent for this story

#northernireland #ira #uda #udr #thetroubles #journalism #chrisryder

Where’s the missing 49 000 miles of paths? You can help to find them

Lindsay Charlton

In 1982, while working as a reporter for Granada TV in Manchester, I was fortunate enough to meet a small, dynamic elderly man by the name of Benny Rothman. The occasion was the 50th anniversary of the Kinder Trespass by a group of 400 ramblers, who in 1932, walked from Hayfield to Kinder Scout in the Peak District. (see link below-ed)

Benny, a member of the British Workers Sports Federation, was one of the leaders of three groups of walkers who converged on Kinder Scout in defiance of the landowners and gamekeepers who blocked their path. Scuffles broke out on the summit, five of the walkers were arrested, but the point was made and the event widely covered in the national press of the day. The point being that the British countryside should be the open and accessible to men and women of every background and class.

According to the Hayfield Kinder Trespass Group, this act of civil disobedience was one of the most successful in British history. It arguably led to the passage of the National Parks legislation in 1949 and helped pave way for the establishment of the Pennine Way and other long-distance footpaths. Walkers’ rights to travel through common land and uncultivated upland were eventually protected by the Countryside and Rights of Way Act (CROW Act) of 2000. Though controversial when it occurred, it has been interpreted as the embodiment of working class struggle for the right to roam versus the rights of the wealthy to have exclusive use of moorlands for grouse shooting.

Later generations in the UK, have become accustomed to being able, armed with their trusty Ordnance Survey Map usually found these days on a smartphone, to traverse an astonishing 150,000 miles of footpaths and byways across the UK. Along these ancient routes we follow in the footsteps of our ancestors who forged these paths often thousands of years ago. Few countries in the world have a comparable network for public enjoyment.

But there’s a problem. Somehow according to the Ramblers, we have forgotten, lost or just misplaced almost 49,000 miles of footpaths that are now unrecorded and missing from our current official maps. They all need finding, recording and recovering by 2026 when the legal record of rights of way will be updated.

It’s a massive challenge, and if you care about the countryside and our ability to roam then the Ramblers need your help fast. Their ‘Don’t lose your Way Campaign’ aims to restore these historic routes and you can track down missing paths where you live using their mapping tool.

Time to get those walking boots out, and follow Benny’s ghost across this green and pleasant land. Details of how to get involved can be found here:

https://www.ramblers.org.uk/news/latest-news/2020/november/dont-lose-your-way-reveals-lost-historic-paths.aspx

Note: There are some great photos of gamekeepers waiting for the original Kinder trespassers in the archives if you can track them down.

Mass trespass of Kinder Scout – Wikipedia

Lindsay Charlton is a journalist, entrepreneur fell walker and an enthusiast for many healthy sports

#bennyrothman #kinderscout #rambling #health #sports #countryside #nationalparks

A Big Thank you

A big thank you to all our many contributors readers and followers. You are all becoming far too numerous to name, but can we say how much strength we take from your constant, friendly presence. Not only are you all the cutting intellectual edge of humanity, but some of your ideas for cocktails aren’t bad either.

And remember this. Yes, things are a bit bad right now. But people have lived through much, much worse. Take the poor blighters in the sixth century. Bubonic plague, wars, climate change, massive volcanic eruptions and really high taxes-all in the same short period. It’s a theme we shall return to. Meanwhile, read all you can lay your hands on about it-and be grateful that you live now.

#plagueof justinian #procopius #kyleharper #lateantiquity #byzantium

Vaccines-will they bring out the best or the worst in human nature?

Fans of Graham Greene will recall how quickly the marvellous lifesaving discovery of penicillin was quickly exploited by spivs, crooks and racketeers. The very best in human nature was quickly made a playpen for the worst. As we write, the great roll out of vaccines has just begun. So far there is no example of a Harry Lime at work in our midst. But a short supply backed right up against an almost fractal level of demand must carry enormous dangers.

Ian Bremmer of Time (via Apple News) gives us a timely article on the jealousies and nastinesses that could ensue if we are not careful. It’s from an American, nation-level perspective, but waht is true for nations is often true of individuals as well.

What Happens Next as the COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts Begin | Time

For the British perspective, Nature trails the Guardian on how the UK \government must struggle to come up with a fair and effective system. We don’t envy them!

Doses of the Pfizer—BioNTech vaccine have begun to arrive in UK hospitals after it received emergency authorization last week. The first shots will be given to people over age 80, starting tomorrow. Care-home residents had been designated as a top priority to receive the jab, but health authorities are still exploring how to distribute the vaccine outside hospitals because it comes in deep-frozen packs containing 975 doses that must be stored at –70 ℃ .The Guardian | 5 min read

And…An Immunologist Writes. Here’s a lovely Q & A piece from the Conversation where Tracy Hussell tries to answer some of the questions which any intelligent person might rightly have.
‘Is it safe to have more than one type of COVID vaccine?’ and other questions answered by an immunologist (theconversation.com)
O

Our Personal view? We want an mRNA based vaccine, because they are new and cool. (literally). When we were young, you were the coolest kid in the class if you were the first one to buy the new T Rex record or have platform brogues. The old attenuated vaccines are so last century! Look it all up in Wikipedia if you don’t believe us. By the way- Wikipedia is the most fantastic source of knowledge for everyone. Here’s how you can donate.

Support Wikipedia – Wikimedia Foundation

We thank Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for today’s story

#mrnavaccines #vaccines #covid19 #sarscov2 #coronavirus #pfizer #moderna #astrazeneca