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According to Larry Elliott* of the Guardian, the answer is “yes-it could”. Stalling economic growth, collapsing exports, and fewer to remittances by migrants to poor countries all suggest and economic time bomb which could blow at any time. According to Elliott, the canary in the mine is Zambia, but there are many other countries who will find it incredibly hard to pay their sovereign debts. Ellliot’s article is well hyperlinked, but if you really want to lift up the hood and look at the engine, the one linking to Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, is a good place to start.*

Debt crises are always agonising for the countries that live through them. But they are for everyone else too. Bondholders, both private and state, have to take a haircut; a lot of good investment capital is always tied up or lost altogether when these things blow up. Poor people anywhere means less demand for goods and services. Think Greece and Argentina, both well within recent memory. But above all it means political instability, extremism, and migration. To put it brutally, we at LSS always see immigration as an objective economic phenomenon rather than a political or moral one. Migrants behave like ions in an electric field. They move from negative (hunger, political repression) to positive (money). A new wave of migrants crossing the Sahara and Mediterranean could bring problems indeed to the richer countries of the north.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/04/creditors-must-wake-up-fast-to-threat-of-emerging-market-debt-crisis

Reform of the International Debt Architecture is Urgently Needed

#debtcrisis #imf #zambia #immigation #migration #restructuring

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As the American death toll passes 200 000 and even the President and his team are ravaged by the Sars-Cov-2 virus, spare a thought for Africa, where they’re coping quite well, actually. Everyone remembers all those predictions in the Dog and Duck just before the pandemic. “Oh it’ll destroy Africa, their countries will collapse, blah blah.”

Not so. Liberia, population 5 million, has had only 82 deaths. Senegal, population 16 million, only has 302 deaths. Karen Attah for the Washington Post, surveys the story in the round. It should change your assumptions about this and many other things. (Spoiler alert: we sometimes get opening and paywall issues with the Washington Post. But it is a fine publication, and well worth the effort. so here are two links to try!)

We thank Dr S P Day of Norfolk for this story

read://https_www.washingtonpost.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2020%2F09%2F22%2Fafrica-has-defied-covid-19-nightmare-scenarios-we-shouldnt-be-surprised%2F%3Futm_source%3Dpocket-newtab-global-en-GB

read://https_www.washingtonpost.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2020%2F0

#africa #covid19 #sars-cov-2 #donaldtrump #coronavirus #pandemic #usa

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We hope you all enjoyed your cocktail night. There’s a wealth of stories for all you intelligent educated people to consider this week, so here goes- we are just going to line ’em up.

Doing it all wrong

Why the baffling differences in the way Coronavirus behaves in different places around the world? Here’s a high death rate in city A, while there’s none over in city B. Country C is poised for disaster, they said back in March-except of course, it hasn’t happened. According to Zeynep Tufecki in the Atlantic, we have been concentrating too much on the famous R rate in our modelling, and not enough on a factor called k which measures its dispersal potential. The article is written in lucid, intelligent Atlantic style. It’s a journal we recommend to anyone. Correction. Everyone

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

Why is being a chief executive like a man in a bookshop?

Imagine you are standing in a bookshop, and you can only afford one book. But as you look along the shelves, there are hundreds of quite good ones. History, Science, business, psychology, novels………All screaming “I’m good, buy me!” It’s the same for a Chief Executive. All your underlings are trying to get their ideas noticed, as are salesmen from outside the company, who are trying to sell you things like IT apps and water coolers. According to Warren Buffet the secret of success is to say “No!” to just about everything. Here Marcel Schwantes of Pocket explains why.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/warren-buffett-says-this-1-simple-habit-separates-successful-people-from-everyone-else?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Go to the ant, O sluggard. Consider her ways and be wise (Prov 6, 6)

How do complex animal societies like ants of bees manage to work together? Apparently by a few simple rules, which are observed by all. Kevin Hartnett for pocket looks at how simple algorithms hold ant societies together. “She prepares her bread in summer, and gathers her food in harvest.” !!

we thank Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire for the above stories

Nature is another publication that we rate highly. Here’s a fantastic story about using AI to diagnose Covid 19 just from your voice. There’s a link to the main story as well

Alexa, do I have Covid -19?

Researchers are exploring ways to use people’s voices to diagnose everything from coronavirus infection to depression. They are using artificial intelligence to recognize when a condition is disturbing the delicate dance of the brain, nervous system and vocal anatomy. Even the words you use can be a sign: for example, a shrinking vocabulary might indicate a neurodegenerative disease. Researchers emphasize that the technology would be only a part of a clinician’s diagnostic arsenal, and there are serious privacy concerns — but the advantages of such a light-touch tool are clear. “This is not invasive, it’s not a drug, we’re not changing anything,” says Tal Wenderow of the voice-analysis company Vocalis. “All you need to do is speak.”Nature | 12 min read

We hope you shall be restful today, gentle readers, as befits a good weekend. We at LSS are going to be rather occupied with some good people who want us all to survive global warming. We may well come back to you, so watch this space.

#covid-19 #sars-cov-2 #coronavirus #warrenbuffet #k dispersal #artificialintelligence #algorithms #diagnosis

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Don’t know why/ain’t no sun up in the sky, Stormy Weather..….

Sang Ella Fitzgerald and many others who covered the old Harold Arlen/Ted Koehler classic Stormy Weather. The point is, what with all the warm holiday resorts closed due to Covid 19, all the cruise ships tied up, and a storm battering southern England, what is the thirsty pleasure seeker to do?

Despair not, gentle reader, for the answer may be here. Here indeed is a list of storm- themed cocktails to get you through the howling winds and battering rains, until once again the sun shines down on us all. Our recipes this week come from the Wikipedia list of cocktails, and that old stalwart The Ultimate Cocktail Book, published by Hamlyn.

Stormy Weather

One for a a classic cocktail glass. Put three cracked cubes of ice in your best shaker and add 1.25 measures dry white gin. 0.25 measure Mandarine Napoleon. 0.25 dry vermouth.0,25 sweet vermouth. Shake and pour into a chilled cocktail glass. Decorate with lemon or orange peel spiral. Got Napoleon through many a stormy night on St Helena, no doubt.

Hurricane

Originated in New Orleans, where they know a thing or two about ’em. And yes, it really will need a hurricane glass. Here’s what wiki say:

served	“On the rocks”; poured over ice
Standard drinkware	hurricane lamp–shaped glass
Commonly used ingredients	One part dark rumOne part white rumHalf part over proofed rumPassion fruit syrupLemon juice
Preparation	Shake ingredients with ice, then pour into the glass and serve over ice.

When we think of New Orleans, we often think of President George W Bush and Hurricane Katrina. Some say that his decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was the start of the decline and fall of the American Empire. Well, it’s a talking point for you as you sip your delicious cocktail.

Damn the Weather

This is what Wiki states:

like many prohibition-era cocktails, the Damn the Weather was conceived as a way to hide the scent and flavor of poor quality homemade spirits, in this case bathtub gin

and here’s their recipe

served	Straight up; without ice
Standard garnish	Slice of orange
Standard drinkware	Cocktail glass
Commonly used ingredients	1 measure gin1/2 measure sweet vermouth1/2 measure orange juice1/4 measure orange curacao or triple sec
Preparation	Shake with ice and strain into a chilled large cocktail glass

The whole point of this one, it does what it says on the tin.

Clear Skies Ahead

Well, it has to blow over some time! We chose this because the umbrella is compulsory. Put 4-5 ice cubes in your shaker. Add 0.5 teaspoon sugar syrup, juice of half a lemon. 0.5 teaspoon grenadine. 1 egg white, two measures of whisky- a nice standard like Famous Grouse or Johnny Walker will do.

Help Wikipedia

We’ve been using wikipedia extensively for this and many other purposes for years. It really is an attempt to provide free, impartial information for all of humankind. Please help by at least considering their donation site, which we append herewith

Support Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cocktails

Here’s the great Lena Horne‘s version of the song

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=song+stormy+weather&&view=detail&mid=567770F0F15109C6F513567770

#cocktails #storm #hurricane #lenahorne #americandecline #grenadine #gin #rum

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People who think that Trump and Biden are looking old, or that Boris Johnson tired, should compare their problems to those of Roman Emperors. Especially those from the troubled years of the third century. If you want to see the toll it took, you could do worse than visit the marvellous series of reconstructions by Daniel Voshart on Artbreeder.

The superb excellence of Imperial Portrait Sculpture has long been well-known. Trouble was, they were all in dead white stone. Something was lacking. Now Voshart has used both ancient sources and advanced AI to bring them to stunning, coloured 3D life. If television viewers claim to see character in the faces of our modern leaders, here it is at last for another age. We’ve posted two links below.**

If you want to see what stress does to the human face, look particularly at the haunted features of the Emperor Decius (249-251). He knew he was up against it before he took the job. Since 165, the once marvellous Roman system had been torn apart by plagues and civil wars. Since 235, they had got a lot more frequent. Decius’ first act was to rise in rebellion against his mentor, the Emperor Phillip, who was killed. Nothing odd in that; every third century Emperor expected to go quickly, either to the knife or military rebellion. But it couldn’t have helped with a good night’s sleep. Decius’s use of the Balkan armies to seize the throne left those provinces wide open to the Goths, who duly took advantage. Another big one on his to do list-no wonder those lines are etched so deep! Meanwhile he launched the first empire wide persecution of Christians, in an attempt to boost general morale. It failed on both counts. So, turning back to those pesky Goths, he marched back up to the Balkans, only to lead his army into a swamp and be overwhelmed. He was the first Emperor to be defeated and killed, which showed that suddenly the Romans had lost their mojo. At least he didn’t have to worry about hiring a stress counsellor any more.

To make it easy we’ve linked a WIKIPEDIA article* on the third century crisis below. Read it as you leaf through Voshart’s gallery. To any aspiring politician we say “Be careful what you wish for.” How about journalism or property development as an alternative career?

https://www.livescience.com/ai-roman-emperor-portraits.html

https://www.voshart.com/ROMAN-EMPEROR-PROJECT

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_the_Third_Century

#voshart #romanemperors #stress #donaldtrump #joebiden #borisjohnson #crisisthirdcentury #AI #facialreconstruction

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The internet is awash with foolish opinions and fake facts. A troll through facebook will deliver you thousands of opinions on Covid 19 from people with no scientific or medical training. It will deliver you screams of rage and hate on matters of politics and public administration from people who have never run for, let alone held, any office in their lives. They are fools; but we don’t all have to be like them

The philosopher Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) was not just that; was a pretty good psychologist. He knew no-one is free from error: but you can take some simple easy steps to avoid making a fool of yourself. We are going to look at a few of his thoughts below. But first a thank you to the website FS, which we link below, wherein you can read the whole thing for yourself. Go on, try it.

1 If the matter is one that can be settled by observation, make the observation yourself.

The world is full of people with dogmatic beliefs about things that someone else told them. Check your facts, and check the biases of the people who are telling you. Have they left something out?

2 If an opinion contrary to your own makes you angry, that is a subconsciously aware of having no good reason for thinking as you do

Remember what we said about cognitive dissonance? This is why persecution is not used in arithmetic, but is in theology. In arithmetic, there are only facts. Theology is opinion.

3 Make yourself aware of opinions other than your own

We thought that this was crucial:

 seek out people with whom you disagree, and read a newspaper belonging to a party that is not yours. If the people and the newspaper seem mad, perverse, and wicked, remind yourself that you seem so to them. In this opinion both parties may be right, but they cannot both be wrong. This reflection should generate a certain caution.

If you find yourself disagreeing with something written in the Daily Mail, take time to prove why it is wrong. It’s just as good for mental exercise as a computer game!

4 Be wary of opinions that flatter your self esteem

Both men and women, nine times out of ten, are firmly convinced of the superior excellence of their own sex. There is abundant evidence on both sides. If you are a man, you can point out that most poets and men of science are male; if you are a woman, you can retort that so are most criminals. The question is inherently insoluble, but self esteem conceals this from most people. 

Gentle readers, Russell is one of those few philosophers whose writings really do bring moments of calm reflection. God knows we need them. We invite you to try, starting with the link below.

read://https_fs.blog/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffs.blog%2F2009%2F09%2Fbertrand-russell-on-avoiding-foolish-opinions%

#bertrandrussell #fakenews #culturewars #seeingbothsides

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If the world is going to divide into hostile ethnic and religious tribes (see the works of Amy Chua and Eric Kaufman), then why not start a tribe for the educated and intelligent? We have a right to survive as well. We had even hoped that LSS might play a small part in this. Now thanks to our indefatigable interlocutor, Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire, we have been guided to a site that so exactly fulfils the role that we wonder why we are writing this.

https://theconversation.com/uk

“Academic rigour, journalistic flair” is their mission statement. And they cover everything. science, medicine, practical everyday psychology, business, arts. All written in lively, sparkling prose-but all by experts in their fields, with more letters after their names than the post office.

Mr Seymour himself wants you to read this piece om procrastination. Most of us have worked for at least one boss who does that, and here’s why they do it.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-psychological-origins-of-procrastination-and-how-we-can-stop-putting-things-off?

To tax or not to tax? And how much? It has bedevilled the whole discourse since at least 1910. Here Professor Vanhuysse has a new insight

//https_theconversation.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Fhow-high-should-taxes-be-new-study-shows-voters-back-lower-rates-only-for-income-earned-on-merit-145202

Well, that’s just two examples. My lords, ladies and gentlemen, educated intelligent people everywhere, the Conversation is a new Renaissance. Read it-and learn.

#theconversation #psychology #taxes

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Imagine you hard worked hard for years and saved to get your first handhold on the property ladder. And then were told-“sorry mate, everything you’ve done is worthless.” Such is the fate of millions caught in the EWS crisis. (External Wall System)

It’s one of those dreadful scrapes where the good intentions of different people have combined to effect bad outcomes for all. We cannot improve on the story by Faye Brown of the Metro*,which you should read. To summarise, changes in cladding regulations in the wake of the Grenfell fire have led a backlog of inspections for literally millions of flats, most of them new builds. The sorts of properties where striving young couples get their first foot on the property ladder, before moving on to a house to start a family. Now they can’t- because the properties are un-mortgageable, and unsellable. Faye’s stories will break the heart of anyone who still has a heart to be broken. Basically, we now have three million prisoners who can’t start a family; who can’t find space for their new family; or who have seen ten years of virtuous saving wiped out..

“But what has this to do with me?” we hear some readers asking. “Here I sit in my comfy semi in Guildford or Welwyn Garden City-why should I give the concern of a certain well known arboreal primate of the infraorder Simiiformes?” (surely “monkeys”?-ed) Well, for a start, small flat buyers underpin the rest of the property market- if they freeze up, so does it. So much for the value of your cosy little chateau, son. We could also wax sorry for the fate of millions of fellow-strivers, but we think there is a deeper problem.

Old hands on the Left will recall sitting round from the 1940s to the 1980s waiting for the Revolution that never came. Somehow, the Workers never did rise up and overthrow the Capitalist system, however many newspapers were sold at them, however many times they were hectored from a loudhailer at the factory gates. Some said that they had been seduced by Murdoch and the Daily Mail. Others that it was all the fault of rampant consumerism. We think there was a very simple reason-the twenty five year mortgage. “Buy a house, keep your nose clean for twenty five years and you get a stake in the system!” A person of property! It’s a rare and beautiful thing for ordinary people down the centuries. It certainly kept the peace. If that conveyor belt to full membership of society is broken, expect the rise of an angry, well-educated generation with no stake in the present order, and everything to gain by its overthrow. Think Russia in 1917.

The cladding crisis that has made 3,000,000 people’s homes worthless

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/home/ews-crisis-nine-in-10-ews-checked-blocks-require-remediation-work-

EWS1 requirements mean many flats will become un-mortgageable?

#ewscrisis #proletariat #precariat #firsttimebuyer #housing #ews1 #mortgage #renters

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Welcome to another Saturday night of beer, chips and fun. But before you head off to the Dog and Duck, here’s a few thoughts which our intrepid interlocutors want you to share

Generating renewable energy is all very well, but we are going to need safe compact ways to store it. Especially if we want to use it in cars, trains and mobile barbecues. Mr Gary Herbert of Buckinghamshire points us to nuclear batteries, as originally used in the famous Voyager missions. This is from New Scientist

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24733010-700-safe-extra-long-life-nuclear-batteries-could-soon-be-a-reality/

Staying with Gary, he is anxious that test and trace works well to overcome the Covid 19 pandemic. Here the BMJ (journal of the BMA) discusses the UK Government’s soi disant moonshot project. Is one like this coming to a country near you? There probably isn’t an organisation quite so full of intelligent, learned people as the BMA in the world. So we should pay attention!

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3558

Mr Peter Seymour of Hertfordshire always sees his science and technology through the lens of economics and society, like the great philosophers of the Enlightenment did. The UK has always had a North- South problem since the days of Disraeli and Mrs Gaskell. Here the BBC discuss how it plays out in the days of the corona virus pandemic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54250626

Time travel has fascinated thinkers for-well, a long time really. We at LSS frankly confess that the mathematics and physics of it are usually beyond us. Three cheers for all who make the attempt to explain. Here is Caroline Delbert in Popular Mechanics, chosen again by the indefatigable Mr Seymour

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a34146674/paradox-free-time-travel-is-possible/

Far back in the mists of time, around 1973, scientists made the first use of proteins to study human evolutionary relationships. It was mainly the ones in extant species like humans and chimps, but it gave exciting results. Then along came glamorous DNA studies and poor old proteins got pushed out into Cinderella status-as they did in so many fields. Now Cinderella may be about to go to the ball. DNA is feeble stuff, it breaks down quickly. But tough old proteins may last for millions of years.

What was Homo naledi? What were those funny little hobbits doing in the caves on Flores, and why so small? Who or what was a Denisovan? Questions that have puzzled us human evolution buffs may at last be answerable. Here’s Matthew Warren in Nature.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01986-x

Once again, thanks to all who read and follow our little blog, wherever you are. Have a great weekend.

#nuclearbattery #renewables #covidtesting #testandtance #moonshot #covid19 #sars-cov-2 #coronavirus #northsouthdivide #timetravel #humanevolution

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When the penny first dropped about the awful dangers of antibiotic resistance-with us, about 2016- we had the dread sense that no one, apart from Professor Colin Garner was doing anything about it. Five years on, how that situation has changed! Yesterday, a little throwaway tip in the New Scientist led us to the website of the University of Edinburgh. These dudes have five,- count’ em, five!- major lines of enquiry. We shall give you a brief resume, then let you enjoy the links below.

Er, what’s the situation in Global and local epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance like right now?

Is the uncontrolled use of antibiotics in agriculture rapidly building up resistance? Yep. Is looking through sewage in third world areas going to give us good data? You bet-nice work if you can get it. Are there major new populations of resistant Staphylococcus evolving? There certainly are! Try the link below

https://www.ed.ac.uk/edinburgh-infectious-diseases/amr/epidemiology

Shouldn’t someone be looking at better diagnostics?

Dr Till Bachman thinks so. Look at the work of his teams here: Bachman turns on the overdrive!

https://www.ed.ac.uk/edinburgh-infectious-diseases/amr/diagnostics

How why and what are bacteria evolving to beat antibiotics?

Well the University of Edinburgh is on the case. This bit is crucial

https://www.ed.ac.uk/edinburgh-infectious-diseases/amr/underpinning-mechanisms

What about alternatives and vaccines?

Nice idea, but Professor Dockrell got there first. Have a look here to see the amazing work of his teams

How can we stop people misusing antibiotics in future?

Professor Devi Sridhar (yes, the same one who’s always on Channel 4 news) is covering this

https://www.ed.ac.uk/edinburgh-infectious-diseases/amr/governance-stewardship-antibiotics

And Hats off to the University of Glasgow where Professor Lee Cronin is doing sterling work on trying to predict how bacteria will evolve resistance in future. (spoiler alert-this was the NS tip, but we couldn’t find a nice link for you than this one Can anyone out there help?)

Click to access Yoshida-NarCommun2017.pdf

Where there’s life, there’s hope

#antibioticresistance #evolution #antibiotics #bacteria #disease