Ok, we might be exterminated by AI superentities-but what’s the soundtrack going to be?

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According to a leading AI safety researcher there is now a 10% chance that humanity might be wiped out by Artificial Intelligence, [1] A delicious irony we say, considering that humans created it. OK, it might happen, it might not (90% still seems a big safety margin), but if it does we need to consider: what music will be most appropriate to our final hours on this planet which we have done so much to destroy? Intelligent readers will immediately suggest the sombre theme from James Cameron’s superlative Terminator series of films: but that’s too easy. So our challenge was to find ten others which might fairly join its chiliastic tones Here are our possibilities, in reverse order

10 The Doors The End Strong and portentous on lyrics, it nevertheless needed Coppola’s visual effects to deliver that final thanatocratic punch between the eyes. Makes the cut-just.

9 Schubert Piano Trio in E-flat, D.929 Credit where it’s due-it was the excellent Griffin Johnson of Armchair Historian fame[2] who used this to accompany the French army on its final fatal march to Sedan in 1870.Nothing in our view so well captures the queasy sense of outward splendour and pride masking internal rottenness and decay. Schubert people, hold on-your boy is coming up again.

8 David Bowie Five Years When Bowie wrote this glam rock tribute to forthcoming apocalypse he was probably thinking more of nuclear Armageddon than a self-inflicted IT crash. Still relevant, as are many of the works of a man who was as much trenchant social critic as musician.

7 Kraftwerk The Robots. Well, this one had to go in somewhere-so why not number 7?

6 Nine inch Nails The Day the World went Away Nothing in our view so captures the mood of the camera panning over a rubble strewn wasteland after its creators have vanished: a small masterpiece of harmony and deeply nihilistic lyrics.

5 Schubert Symphony No 8 in B minor “Unfinished” It’s the first movement we reference here, with its disquieting sense of a man near the end, recounting his few happinesses and his many more regrets and sorrows. Refugees from the 1970s will be disappointed to learn that Schubert did not leave this one unfinished in order to drink a pint of a well known brand of cold lager.

4 Mahler Symphony Number 1, 3^rd/4^th movements. For us, the steady drumbeat that begins the third movement originally suggested the march of the barbarians on Rome( we were big on that Empire once) But now the whole development suggests a much wider civilisational crash, combined with haunting yearnings for the better days of the past. As our personal choice, it narrowly nicks it over the Adagietto from No 5. Close run thing though.

3 The Talking Heads Life during wartime When the AI machines make the final push, there’ll probably be a bit of fighting. We think certain scenes from the Terminator franchise may capture much of the essence of the situation. In which case Byrne’s brisk lyrics about no more parties and discos, combined with its harsh throbbing beat, sum up matters rather well, in our humble opinion.

2 Mozart Requiem in D minor, Confutatis and Lacrimosa Not only is this the one which firmly puts the Man from Salzburg into the same top three category as Bach and Beethoven, its plea for forgiveness and redemption may implore God to listen to our final lament, even if the machines don’t.

And the winner is:

1 Gary Numan — Are ‘Friends’ Electric Nothing in our view quite captures the steady rhythmic march of unstoppable machines towards their sinister destination. Every time we hear about The Deadly Threat from Artificial Intelligence, this is the one that really springs to mind, a glittering harbinger of apocalyptic destruction. And a worthy winner of our top slot.

But this is just our opinion, gentle readers, our modest little choices. If you can think of something better, or someone we have missed, please let us know. Just remember to do it quickly.

Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI ‘could kill all humans’ – BBC News

Armchair History TV

#Artificail intelligence #extinction #humanity #IT #robots #music #computers #futurology #history

Should we abolish the Profession of Economics?

Poor old Economists! Back before the financial crash they seemed to run the world. They certainly seemed to staff half of all the Banks, Governments, Political parties and NGOs across most of it. Peace and order are what you want, they told us. Free markets, the lowest possible taxes, the lowest possible barriers to the free flow of goods, capital and movement. In this they were essentially following the doctrines of Adam Smith whose Wealth of Nations [1]was the founding principle of their Science. And rightly so: because it all seemed like pretty good advice at the time, didn’t it?

Trouble came on two fronts. The first is causal. The really profound shifts in human wealth are created by new discoveries in Science and Technology. (LSS passim) At the very time that Smith was writing his masterwork, technologists like James Watt were creating new machines of such fundamental power that they absolutely transformed the wealth of the nations that adopted them. However much you argue about taxes, multipliers and currency reserves, none of this can hold a candle to the economic leap unleashed by Maxwell’s equations or the work of Watson and Crick in Biotechnolgy. Goal down to the economists. Even worse these days: no one is listening to them. Intellectually, their prescription of how to get to a better life is impeccable. But in a world inhabited by Homo sapiens, the ethnic identity card will always trump the economic prosperity one. It’s a point we have often made here: and the evidence for it has been overwhelming ever since 2016. Are the poor practitioners of the “dismal science” doomed like so many Cassandras [2] to ever prophesy the truth-and be for ever ignored? Economists nil, Humanity 2 : game over?

But before we really go on to call for the abolition of a profession which has actually nurtured some of the brightest minds in History (Ricado, Keynes, Hayek, Stiglitz………) remember this. The technological changes we talked about take many years, decades even, to be fully adopted. Meanwhile, there’s still and economy to run, so you are going to need a few experts who can tell you what is happening here and now. Who can provide a reality check tell you that adopting ethno-nationalist and populist policies are never good for the long term health of an economy, however good they feel at the time. If you want some detail, this report contains abundant evidence[3] We prefer to offer the example of that Uber ethno nationalist Adolf Hitler: his policies didn’t exactly lead to prosperity much for anyone, neither at home nor abroad, did they? Perhaps we really need more economist not less. Especially in countries which are now adopting ethne nationalist solutions with relentless enthusiasm

[1] Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Edited by R. H. Campbell, A. S. Skinner & W. B. Todd. Liberty Fund, Indianapolis. ISBN: 978-0865970069 (two‑volume set).

[2] Aeschylus The Oresteian Trilogy Penguin 1959

[3]Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph. “Populist Leaders and the Economy.” American Economic Review 113(12) (2023): 3249–88. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20202045.

#economics #populism #science #technology #finance #wealh #identity politics #adolf Hitler #tariffs #immigration #history

Gorillas and the next Pandemic-only this isn’t a health story, it’s really about AI

We’ve always been big fans of primates large and small. So we hope you’ll be as cheered as we were by this piece Can AI help stop the next pandemic disease? from that redoubtable site Nature Briefing. Because we couldn’t help thinking-if can work for gorillas it can work for humans too. It’s an interesting story in itself: but it made us think much deeper about the true transforming power of AI, upon which we shall riff a little below-after you have read it, gentle readers:

Researchers are harnessing the ability of AI tools to identify patterns in large data sets to try to predict spillovers — the transfer of pathogens between species — before they happen. In Uganda, the approach is showing early promise in protecting endangered mountain gorillas, as well as the livestock and people who interact with them. Other researchers are trawling through databases to identify new zoonotic viruses in samples that were not necessarily collected for that purpose.

Nature | 11 min read

So what do we really think? Ostensibly its another good news science story (especially of you’re a gorilla) And it obviously has hopeful implications for when the next pandemic strikes-another LSS old favourite. But-we hope you will indulge us with our own take, because we think there’s something deeper going on. Look at the gap in technique compared with COVID -wracked 2021, the last real pre-AI year. Back then, researchers would only have been able to compare one data set at a time: logs on gorilla movements, human settlements, genomes, weather, livestock………you name it. Now our invisible chums do the lot for us simultaneously, in real time. And to make predictive ecological models, construct counterfactuals and many other things, all based on real time integration of field data. Quite a step change, isn’t it?

Five years is a short time for a new world to be born. But it is such, for it carries the true characteristic of a new world-there’s no going back. And somehow its this story that has finally brought it home, at least to this Editorial Board: this AI thing is as big as the advent of metals, or the Industrial Revolution. What do you think? We’d love to know.

#gorillas #ecology #modelling #pandemic #conservation#Artificial Intelligence #technology

Round up Birth order, resistant fungus, solar missions and much more

a few examples from this week’s news

Is Birth order Destiny? We’ve long been intrigued by the thought that your birth order-whether you’re a sibling or an older child, older brother, younger sister,etc-affects your personality and life chances. Latest twist in the saga is this piece about disease from the Independent: Study suggests first-born children are more likely to develop neurological conditions and second-born are more prone to substance abuse

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/first-and-second-born-disease-risk-b3028407.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawTicCtwZG9mBWV4dG4DYWVtAjEwAGJyaWQRMFU1SjR6Q2hsamtwamFOMUxzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzk

Recalcitrant Fungus “A drug-resistant fungus that kills thousands of hospital patients in the U.S. every year survives on human skin by hijacking the body’s immune response, scientists have just discovered.” declares Newsweek. So it’s not just bacteria then?

https://www.newsweek.com/deadly-fungus-kills-thousands-every-year-scientists-found-where-it-hides-12297119?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwY

Is all this heat doing in your brain? A few years ago we published a blog speculating that extra carbon dioxide from global warming may be affecting our health (LSS 2 11 20) Well that may or may not be the case: but all that extra heat may well be affecting our brains, as this article from The Conversation makes clear indeed

https://theconversation.com/too-hot-to-think-why-extreme-heat-can-affect-how-well-our-brain-works-289170?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20

Yet more quantum complexity As if quantum physics wasn’t already difficult enough to follow, what with all those bosons, muons hadrons and quarks, Nature Briefing has just made our life a little more difficult with this piece about the Gluon How are we meant to remember all this?

A team of physicists says it has observed strong evidence of a mysterious ‘glueball’, a particle made up of force-carrying gluons. The team says that a particle known as X (2370) is mostly made up of these glueballs — clusters of the gluons that bind quarks to form protons and neutrons and hold them inside the nucleus of an atom. There is no single smoking gun that proves that this particle is made of glueballs, says particle physicist Bruce Yabsley. But the findings are “quite persuasive”, he says. The group presented their results at the International Conference on High Energy Physics in Natal, Brazil, last week.

Nature | 5 min read

Why won’t ET phone us? Normally our Friday purpose is to bring you short snappy pieces before Cocktail Hour. But this Guardian Long Read on why those pesky aliens have never shown up is so very good that we felt it our duty to bring it to you nevertheless

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/aug/11/the-great-silence-why-havent-we-found-any-aliens-yet

India’s day in the Sun If there’s one nation that is making huge leaps-commercial, technological, scientific- it is India. Proof if you want more comes from this admirable solar mission Aditya L1, admirably reported by the BBC

Aditya-L1: Indian solar mission’s new findings throw light on enduring Sun mysteries – BBC News

Quote of the week

Behold, how good and how pleasant it is for brethren to dwell together in unity!” — Psalm 133:1

#india #space #solar #global warming #antibiotic resistance #birth order #physics #climate #psychology #family #health #medicine

Incurable cancers-don’t pick and choose your Science

Over the years we’ve enjoyed bringing you good‑news cancer stories. Only a fraction of what’s available in the wider media, of course, but we try to showcase the ones that matter. And we think you will agree, gentle readers, that the overall direction of travel has been encouraging. Immunotherapy, CAR‑T, genomic sequencing — these are just a few of the leaps and bounds of the last decade. Compared with the situation in 1996, or even 1966 when tobacco was almost de rigueur, you might reasonably feel a measure of satisfaction.

Except, of course, for the truly intractable and life‑wasting tumours that still hover over all our lives. Poised and ready to strike, like a swarm of sinister angels from hell.

Our personal list might include Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC), pancreatic adenocarcinoma, glioblastoma, and certain forms of ovarian and liver cancer. This handy list from ScienceDirect offers an excellent jumping‑off point for anyone who wants to learn more. [1] At which point the Reflective Reader might conclude: “More research to be done.” And there’s the rub, as Shakespeare would have it.

For over those same ten years we have drifted into an age when Science, Research and Investigation are increasingly at a discount rather than a premium. Attacks on climate science, vaccination, and epidemiology are nothing new — but they have increased in fury and frequency, and have afforded licence to dispute the findings of any reasonable and learned experts. Recall the vitriol poured on economists who challenged the latest popular fads in constitutional or economic matters, or sociologists who advocate a more rational approach to any number of issues around crime, the family and poverty. For a broader survey of these attacks on the physical sciences in general, see this link to The Skeptical Inquirer.[2], although for the sociological and economic tropes we have alluded to you’ll have to look elsewhere.

But it is not the specific assaults on rationality that matter so much as the intellectual climate they create. Facts are selected, conclusions jumped to, and the passion is for triumph rather than knowledge. Research is a human, social phenomenon, and it is as sensitive to the social trends around it as winds are to a warming climate. Some people may feel they gain by refusing to reason. But they will pay a long price in untreatable cancers, incurable epidemics, and broken economies.

How to remind them they still have time to make a choice?

[1] The 10 deadliest cancers, and why there’s no cure | Live Science

[2] The Disturbing Attacks on Science | Skeptical Inquirer

# Triple Negative Breast Cancer # glioblastoma # CAR-T # alcohol # cannabis #health #medicine #Climate Science

AI designed Bacteriophages: Synthetic Life-or synthetic Evolution?

Ever attentive to our readers’ clamour for more good news on antibiotic resistance we bear yet another story on the synthesis of Artificial Intelligence with the frontiers of cellular biology to produce yet another remarkable advance. Yet we think, gentle readers, that this story may have far deeper significance for the evolution of life on this planet and who knows, several of the neighbouring ones in our Solar System, and today we will tell you why.

First the story, showcasing the work of the assiduous James Gallagher of the BBC.[1] Researchers at Stanford University[2] have used the AI systems Evo 1 and Evo 2 to design a new generation of entirely synthetic bacteriophages which have already proved effective against certain strains of E.coli. We will let our links tell the story of the ingenious Brian Hie and Samuel King and what their teams have accomplished: but regular readers will realise what a valuable new therapeutic technique this could be. Good journalist that he is, Gallager covers certain warnings too: but that is the BBC for you: balanced, nuanced and still true to its Reithian principles 100 years on.

But if you will forgive us, we think this is our opportunity to record why we think all this AI-meets-biology trope we have been covering for some years is truly significant. And it is this. For millions of years, organisms under attack-by parasites, predators, whatever- have relied on the slow, wasteful grind of Darwinian natural selection to stumble toward defence. Now, for the first time, a host species has stepped outside that blind process. With AI‑designed bacteriophages, the human brain—admittedly an organ shaped by old school evolution—is beginning to direct its own evolutionary responses by compressing what once took thousands of generations into deliberate, rapid invention. Not synthetic life, exactly, but something stranger: synthetic evolution. And, if human attempts to colonise the moon and nearby planetary systems are successful, these may be the new sorts of life forms that come to inhabit those worlds. Not sad old Darwinian selected eucaryotes like ourselves and our pet cats. Just a thought.

With thanks to Mr G Herbert and our in-house team of researchers who implored us to break our weekend embargo to bring you this story

[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y3j3ngevmo

[2] AI designs a novel E. coli killer | Stanford Report

#AI #bacteriophages #genomes #health #medicine #antibiotic resistance #evolution #biology #future

Alternatives to a World Government#2: the deep, deep problem with a consumer society

All our breezy prescriptions for a World Government will fail miserably if they don’t address the same problem that the Governments of the Nations are grappling with. And one of the biggest is the widening gap between People and Rulers. Almost within days of arriving in office, the government of our poor namesake Sir Keir Starmer found itself plagued by a deep and inveterate hostility from the voters.

Those same voters demand endlessly lower taxes, then complain bitterly about potholes, weak defence and the lack of capacity in the prison system. They demand an end to red tape and regulation while simultaneously clamouring for restrictions on immigration, the sale of certain drugs, and the use of the internet by minors. Where has such demanding — and self‑contradictory — behaviour come from?

One possible source, we wondered (and at first this was mere speculation), is consumer society. For decades people have been born and raised in a milieu that specialises in gratifying their capricious wants: for sweet foods, for psychologically active substances, and for ever faster ways of travelling towards the next traffic jam. We do not blame companies like Amazon, Netflix or Deliveroo; they have simply perfected trends in a culture a century in the making.

So we asked: do people now demand the same instantly gratifying solutions from politicians that they expect from fast‑food companies?

Readers will be glad to know that help arrived from a much deeper thinker. We came across the work of a remarkable philosopher, Luke Yates, whose book was published in that far‑off year of 2022. Modern society, Luke argues, is based on consumption practices: convenience, speed and instant gratification. If this is how people come to perceive politics, then our outlook is dire indeed.

For, as those of us in the — er — more reflective- elements of the population have known for centuries, politics isn’t like that at all. Its word‑cloud comprises such elements as slow, procedural, available resources, nuance, evidence and above all: choose options. To expect any politician, world emperor or local councillor to wave a magic wand and solve all is to chase mare’s nests and even, dare we say it, bark at the Moon.

Which leads us to a third, depressing metaphor: dead ducks. For if Luke’s thesis is even halfway reasonable, our plan for a World Government will solve absolutely nothing at all.

Oh well. We tried.

Luke Yates (2022), How everyday life matters: everyday politics, everyday consumption and social change, Consumption and Society, 1(1): 144–169.

#world government #luke yates #consumer society #politics#economics #culture

Only evidence will do: book review from Nature Briefing

What happens when Belief triumphs over evidence? Here’s one example. For most of human history, childbirth was dangerous in a way modern readers struggle to imagine. In Europe in the early 19th century, maternal mortality in hospitals could reach 10–20% in bad years. Women died not from the birth itself but from the mysterious, terrifying scourge of puerperal fever. And the explanations? The usual cocky self-serving assertions like miasmas, divine wrath, atmospheric changes. Most Doctors were confident; they knew. When thinkers like Semmelweiss suggested that the cause was filthy medical practices which spread a lethal agent he called “germs,” he was hounded from his profession. The carnage continued until Pasteur and others were finally able to show the true causes, which they did using controlled experiments, rigorous data ,and logical interpretation of their findings.

Those who think such battles to be long won would do well to read the following book review from Nature Briefings. It’s called How we know: the rise of evidence based medicine, But it’s really a gateway to how we know about anything, as opposed to just believing our own first guess

In Beyond Belief, science journalist and Nature editor Helen Pearson charts the rise of evidence-based medicine and explores how rigorous research has transformed health and social policy. Pearson shares examples of success stories, in which solid evidence overturned bad practices, and the people behind them, many of whom were treated as mavericks for championing randomized trials. “Anyone can read and enjoy the book, yet there are nuggets for experienced readers,” writes public-policy researcher Peter John in his review. “The author writes as a believer, and her passion is engaging.”

Nature | 8 min read

At this blog we have tried many times that only reason and evidence will ultimately ameliorate the human condition. But nowhere have we done as well as this book does. And the need is not just in medicine, but in all areas such as climate physics, economics and what still passes for political life. The central problem m is that humans are wired for belief, not evidence. Intuition, anecdote, tradition, and authority shape most human decision‑making. Cognitive biases — confirmation bias, availability bias, motivated reasoning establish certainty long before any data has arrived. Yet the cost of ignoring evidence is enormous: this summer wildfires are again raging across Europe in a way unknown before 2020. Pearson’s remedy is the same old list our side has been pushing since the age of Sir Francis Bacon : demand clear causal claims, ask what the comparison group was, look for replication,, distrust single studies, favour interventions tested in real‑world conditions, accept that “what works” is often context‑dependent But try explaining all that in the bar of the Dog and Duck.

Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works by Helen Pearson (Princeton, 2026)

BBC – History – Francis Bacon

#medicine #science #evidence #reason #experiments #rationality #disease #climate change #politics

Heroes of Learning: The Master Kong (that’s “Confucius ” to you and me)

The most grievous defect of our Heroes of Learning series is that up to now, it has focussed almost entirely on subjects and thinkers from the Western Tradition. Which defect grows from our immersion in a cultural and educational system which has assumed that only Westerners ( and those being, largely, white men) have anything worthwhile to say on matters of philosophy and governance. A conceit cruelly exposed by current developments, especially in nations which have long nurtured independent traditions. Time then, with our world readership to look at other systems and thinkers. And we can think of no better place to start than The Master Kong(“Confucius” in the western tradition) who lived in the China’s Spring and Autumn Period probably between about 551 and 479 BC, making him a near predecessor of such western sages as Plato and Aristotle.[1]

Unlike those refined thinkers, Kong spent a lifetime in the dangerous hurly burly of government service, experiencing wars, coups and even a period of exile. It made him ask above all ”what is the basis for a stable social order? How can the state be made harmonious with the people?” To westerners all the way from Plato through Enlightenment philosophers to moderns such as Rawls, the answer has always been: “ reform the laws; and: institute a just constitution.” But for Master Kong, no set of laws, no constitution can long survive the actions of a venal and unstable ruler. For centuries, westerners seemed to have the answers. But recent experience of leaders who mistake authority for wisdom, bureaucracies that reward compliance over candour, and publics that lose trust when officials and private corporations behave without integrity, have shown this arrogance to be profoundly mistaken. Confucius inverts all: he insists that the State cannot exist without ethical leadership, truthful counsel and restraint. His Analects[2] [3] (actually compiled by his followers after his death exalt character, duty and wisdom as the basis for this stable State. And that these virtues must first of all be prized and cultivated by the leader and his counsel, before any other men will follow them

These teachings have been rediscovered and re-invented many times, becoming interwoven into the warp and weft of Chinese civilisation. They still inform the actions and thinking of leading statesmen to this day. The world has need of harmony and just order now. The prizes of attaining them are almost within grasp. The penalty of failing to do so will be lethal indeed. Has the world still time to learn from The Master Kong?

[1] Confucius – Wikipedia

[2]Confucio – Analectas, trad. Anne‑Hélène Suárez Girard, Editorial Trotta, Madrid, 2012.

[3]Edward Slingerland – Analects of Confucius: With Selections from Traditional Commentaries, Hackett Publishing, 2003.

#master kong #confucius #china #civilisation #order #law #governance #state #anarchy #politics

Alternatives to a World Government: Part #1 of a new series

All the thinkers we admire say the same thing really: what is your alternative explanation? Bayes insists on always balancing two probabilities. Russell on always looking at the opposite point of view, Keynes on first establishing if your pet idea is general or just a special case. And Daniel Kahneman on checking which bit of your brain you’re thinking with anyway. Which brings us round to our universal panacea, a World Government. We’ve made the case for it a number of times here(LSS passim) so veteran readers will know our diagnosis: most of the problems of the world appear intractable because nation states can never work together with sufficient speed and co-operation to resolve them. Hence economic stagnation, growing xenophobia and a rapid breakdown of the ecological systems upon which we all depend for Life.

Hang on: because aren’t we muddling diagnosis with solution? In which case abolishing the nation state becomes a futile quest, and our World Government a mare’s nest. Are there other diagnoses of our ills which, if correc.t could address all these ills while safely retaining our systems of Governance.? We ought look at them : we owe our readers that much. And so we drew up a list of other possible root causes, which we cheerfully present below. We shall examine them in the coming weeks. Our candidates include Economic inequality. Institutional decay, Technological acceleration, and its concomitant, cognitive overload., Economic model exhaustion, Tribalism and Media systems and collapse of a common narrative

None of them are mutually exclusive and we will find overlapping themes, read similar authorities and consider facts more than once as we move through the series. So bear with us. But one thing we do know: one of you out there, maybe more than one, will have an idea we haven’t thought of. So if you want to put a candidate on the list let us know. In any case we look forward to all of you accompanying us on this next journey.

# bayes #jm keynes # bertrand russell #daniel kahneman #history #economics #politics #governance #technology