Depressing Diptych for November #2:Falling vaccine rates

As the sun sets on the Americas, politically and economically, a new and insidious trend is only going to add to their problems. Read this from the ineffable Nature Briefing: Canada loses measles elimination status

Canada no longer holds measles elimination status after experiencing a cross-country outbreak that has persisted for more than 12 months. By default, this means that the entire Americas region has also lost its status. Infections took hold in undervaccinated Mennonite communities where the COVID-19 pandemic eroded already-shaky trust in the healthcare system — a shared source of recent measles outbreaks in the United States. The number of new cases is going down, but the loss is “a giant wake-up call that we have gaps in our public health infrastructure”, says physician-scientist Isaac Bogoch.CBC | 6 min read

If only it were just them! But it’s now a world-wide trend. According to a recent report by the WHO,[1] Measles cases rose to 10.3 million in 2023, a 20% increase from 2022, with outbreaks intensifying into 2024 and 2025. No less than 138 countries reported measles cases in the past year, with 61 facing large or disruptive outbreaks—the highest since 2019. Meningitis and diphtheria (horrid afflictions) are also re-emerging, particularly in regions with strained health systems and declining immunization coverage. And the causes? Funding cuts and humanitarian crises for one thing Access barriers, especially in marginalized communities, for another But the prime one, and most baffling to us, is our old bugbear: Misinformation and vaccine hesitancy, A fact well illustrated by a similar study from Europe which showed that vaccine hesitancy among adolescents and parents ranges from 12% to over 30%. We invite you to research more, gentle readers.

And so combining with the previous part of our Dreary Depressing Diptych of dispatches (that’s enough D’s-ed) we get a truly dismal picture of this species which has the barefaced cheek to call itself “sapiens.” If an tiger came to you an announced it was was giving up its stripes, you would counsel “don’t do it-if you throw away your principle evolutionary advantage, you will get no dinner!” Similarly if a spider monkey were to forego the use of its tail, or a real spider its web. But humanity seems determined to forego the use of its principal evolutionary advantage, its brain. Palaeontology will record what comes next.

[1]https://www.who.int/news/item/24-04-2025-increases-in-vaccine-preventable-disease-outbreaks-threaten-years-of-progress–warn-who–unicef–gavi

#vaccine #measles #diptheria #medicine #health #childhood disease

Fear, despair and loathing as the last drops of 20th Century Politics drain away

If ever there was a journalist whom we have learned to take seriously, it is John Harris of the Guardian. He it was, along with film-maker John Domokos , who first went round the people in the heartlands of Britain in the 2010s. And thereby revealed the depths of bewilderment, rage and despair that now lurk ubiquitously just below the surface of our national life. “Anywhere but Westminster” they called their work, revealing the deep cleavage between the formal politics of governance and the real feelings of most voters. His article which we riff on for you today, gentle readers is a neuralgically painful contrast between the increasingly empty rituals of the nation’s leaders and an ever more bloody-minded and fractious populace. [1]

Being a thoughtful sort of chap, Harris goes deeper. suggesting that this explains the sudden rise in the fortunes of formerly small parties such as the Greens, Reform, Plaid Cymru and the others. And the agonising decline in the fortunes of those two stalwarts of 20th Century British politics, the Conservative and Labour Parties. He cites the obvious causes- a stagnated economy, changing identities and “the failures of the various administrations that have run the UK since 2008” And this:

The essential point was made a few days before Reeves’s speech by Luke Tryl, the UK director of the thinktank and research organisation More In Common, and someone with an incisive understanding of where we have arrived. “I still don’t think enough people realise how much traditional mainstream politics is in the last chance saloon, in no small part because it can’t be trusted to deliver what it promises,” he said on X.

Why has every single administration failed to deliver the things people want? Governments in the last century used to deliver quite acceptable levels of health, defence, housing and so on.. Here we move beyond Harris (we never put words in others’ mouths) to our own speculations, touched on in our blog Pity poor Rachel Reeves, LSS 23 10 25, and earlier ones in this vein. Remember how we said every nation state, even the richest, are plagued with such debts and poor economies that they no longer have any room to seriously mitigate the lives of their citizens? That the combined weight of investment capital, expressing its power in things like bond and currency markets, could stymie the efforts of any finance minister? Could it therefore be that the Nation State, which has hitherto served us so successfully, is no longer an effective vehicle to manage the the lives of its citizens? It is a terrifying conjecture: for we have no idea of what may replace it. But one thing we do remember: read everything you can lay your hands on about the collapse of Yugoslavia, and what followed.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/09/21st-century-politics-labour-tories-turbulence-green-party-reform

#nation #country #politics #governance #finance #currency market #bond market #populism

Nobel Prize for Economics shows this blog was right all along

Back in the dark days of January 2021, when the world economy was reeling from the savage hit of the COVID-19 pandemic, we published a short blog called How to Get some Free Money(LSS 2 1 21) Everyone at that time was worried about the colossal debts their governments had run up to pay for the catastrophe-were we all to be bankrupt for ever? Our point was that Science and Technology were the key to economic success. Encourage them. and you will grow your way out of debt. However hard a medieval peasant worked and saved he could never hope to achieve the productive levels of a man with a steam driven plough.

How comforting then, to find that better, more profound minds have demonstrated this truth at a Nobel level. By incredibly detailed studies Joel Mokyr, Phillipe Aghion and Peter Howitt [1] have looked at archives, crunched the numbers, weaved out feedback loops and carried out any number of other careful ratiocinations to prove the point. You can read more here [2] if you like graphs and words and things. But for us three things stand out.

There has to be abstract learning first. Many of the ideas and processes that drove the industrial revolution had appeared a hundred years before as the abstruse discoveries of thinkers like Newton and Hooke, which the average man in the street would have called “bonkers!”. There has to be a social ecology of skilled and trained workers, able to quickly deploy and develop the new ideas. In the eighteenth century this meant craftsmen like watchmakers and weavers. Now it means experts in AI and biotechnology. Finally a society must be open to rapid change: and welcome it where possible. For if you do not, someone will rapidly steal your markets with a new idea you could have developed but didn’t, because the old ways were tied and tested(think Kodak and digital cameras) [3]

All of which has relevance now, especially in the United States of America and the UK. In both those countries there is a growing movement to throw over renewable energy technologies and move back to coal and oil as soon as possible. We understand the fears and share some of the nostalgia for a bygone age which the proponents of this U turn so plainly demonstrate, Yet we also recognise that other countries will not. They will adapt clean green technologies rather fast. Not only will this leave the Anglo-Saxon economies hopelessly far behind. Their pollution will also make them a dangerous threat to other places in the world. Places which may seek to shut down that danger by whatever means necessary.

[1]https://www.nobelprize.org/all-nobel-prizes-2025/

[2]https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2025/10/advanced-economicsciencesprize2025.pdf

[3]https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2012/01/18/how-kodak-failed/

#science #technology #growth #innovation #digital cameras #renewable energy

Hello we’re back-and we have Nobel Prizes!

First of all, apologies for our forced and utterly unwanted absence. But Domestic Renovations, and the sorts of people who carry them out, can be as tiresome and time-consuming as any other human relationship which the Gentleman Scholar must negotiate -domestic staff mistresses and lovers, cleaners, mechanics, and countless others. All require patient listening, multiple cups of tea and hefty pay offs, if only to still their incessant demands for even a moment. But here we are back again where it counts-with you, gentle readers. And we are glad to say that we return with one of our favourite sequences of the year. It’s Nobel Prize season again. [1]

For us, the Nobel prizes are the very essence of what this blog is all about. That careful learning and scholarship are not only what lifts our lives above the miserable condition of wild apes (well, some of us): they constitute the only only possible escape route from our current plights, many of which are serious and grave. And this time we think we can prove it. with the help of three of the very winners themselves-how’s that for endorsement, ladies and gentlemen? That’s the prize which will receive our first detailed attention, in the next blog: but let’s start with a roll call of the stupendously intelligent people who have stood out this year as the cream of humanity

Physics: John Clarke Michel H Devoret John M Martins Amazing work “for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit” Yup, we kind of lost too it after the fourth word in the citation, but we’ll try to understand it better in time for a later blog

Chemistry Susuma Kitagawa Richard Robson Omar M Yaghi Want to capture Carbon dioxide, water in the desert, store toxic gases and many other things? These discoveries will let you do all of them. If this isn’t right on the raison d’etre of this blog, we don’t know what is. Again, come back later for more

Physiology and/or Medicine Anything in these fields must be close to an LSS reader’s heart. So the work of Mary E Brunkow, Fred Ramsdell and Shimon Sakaguchi on the tricky world of the immune system requires our most emphatic hats-off

Literature and Peace Intelligence can be of the Emotional kind as well as the academic, as many of us discover with agonising slowness and pain. So although these subjects lie outside the remit of our blog we are proud to give honourable mentions to László Krasznahorkai and Maria Corina Machado respectively (is she a relative of Antonio Machado the famous Spanish poet, we wonder?-ed)

But finally our first next blog on this subject, as t’were, will be devoted to the patient Economics work of Joel Mokyr, Phillipe Aghion and Peter Howitt. Because finally they have shown at Nobel level, what we have believed for so long. It’s science and learning that drives the economy. Which is where we go next time.

[1] https://www.nobelprize.org/all-nobel-prizes-2025/

#nobel prizes #economics #physics #chemistry #medicine #physiology #economics

How climate change drives the return of deadly diseases

We never thought we’d see it. But Malaria is making a comeback in the British Isles [1] According to the latest findings from the UK Health Security Agency(UKHSA) cases rose by a whopping 32% from 2022 to 2023 making them the highest in 20 years. More than 2000 cases in fact. Now some of this is due no doubt to travel bounce backs after the COVID 19 pandemic. But once put into a broader context. the real pattern becomes both clear and alarming. Global warming is driving a massive spread of insect vector diseases. Dangerous diseases that almost seemed under control until the oil companies unleashed climate change on an innocent world

Staying with Britain just for now, William Hunter of the Mail [2] reports on the appearance of two deadly mosquitoes in the UK: the Egyptian mosquito Aedes aegypti and the appropriately named Tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus. For now these are isolated events, and under current conditions their spread may even be containable. But every year the climate gets a little warmer. Every year brings a higher chance that these vectors will spread their deadly triple load: Dengue Fever, Chikungunya and Zika. With all the consequences which wel- seasoned readers of this blog will recall from our earlier outings on this theme (see LSS 25 3 25, 25 10 21 and many others)

We confess to becoming a little angry when we we write stories like this: such disasters could have been so avoidable. Once, not so long ago these diseases were unknown in this islands except as travellers’ tales, or as the province of medical specialists. Now a wave is crossing the world. We know what the remedy is. If by any chance you are a parent reading these lines: this story is one more line of evidence among many. Your children can never be truly safe until global warming is finally controlled and reversed.

[1]https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2025/05/21/how-we-protect-the-uk-from-vector-borne-diseases/

[2]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15151429/tropical-diseases-britain-mosquitoes-dengue-fever.html

[3]https://wellcome.org/news/how-climate-change-affects-vector-borne-diseases

#disease #malaria #dengue fever #climate change #g;obal warming #health

Co-LAB-oration, or why its good news UK is back in Horizon

Science is good for economic growth. It’s theme we’ve touched on before in this blog(LSS 4 10 23; 1 3 24) So any initiative that builds on this incontrovertible fact will meet with our approval. if only because we want a higher standard of living next year. Which is why we showcase this article by Lisa O’Carroll of the Guardian [1] which reviews progress of the UK’s revived membership of the EU administered Horizon Programme, which tries to bring together the efforts of scientists technologists and scholars from across many countries.

It may soothe the objections of our more rabid eurosceptic readers, to learn that almost half the members (20:27) are not in the European Union, but are located as far afield as Canada and New Zealand (“is that Bri’ish Empoire enuff fer yer, Guv?”) But because science is a collaborative process it helps if you can recruit your teams from close neighbours, if only because it saves on things like travel costs on the day of the interview. We need not discourse long on close financial and technological links as Lisa covers them well in her article. It’s a cultural link of a different stripe which makes us think that rejoining was the right decision.

For what the UK and its fellow members have in common is that they are open societies, where information and people flow freely. The other possible partner, the USA, is showing strong signs of both damaging the free flow of information as well as launching major attacks on both the funding and the very work of scientists, as our readers well know. The Horizon programme and the countries that contribute, are the genuine heirs of both the Renaissance and Enlightenment. Societies that abandon the practice of truth and reason soon fall into cultural and economic stagnation. Just as being in UEFA is a sound bet for British Football Clubs, so is Horizon for British Universities. A good news day forr once

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/aug/12/uk-recovers-position-horizon-europe-science-research-eu-brexit

[2]https://commission.europa.eu/funding-tenders/find-funding/eu-funding-programmes/horizon-europe_en

#science #technology #economics #EU #UK #renaissance #enlightenment #donald trump

The economic costs of antibiotic resistance

Down the years we’ve tended to cover the health risks of antibiotic resistance , and the various scientific and medical developments in the field. We haven’t written so much on the economic risks. And frankly, that’s been a blind spot.

Now a very clear sighted article by Anna Bawden of the Guardian[1] makes those potential costs very clear indeed. Drawing on report from the prestigious Centre for Global Development [2] Anna serves up some chilling facts Get this:

A UK government-funded study shows that without concerted action, increased rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could lead to global annual GDP losses of $1.7tn over the next quarter of a century.

Breaking it down by countries:

The research calculated the economic and health burden of antibiotic resistance for 122 countries and forecast that in that in this most pessimistic scenario, by 2050, GDP losses in China could reach just under $722bn a year, the US $295.7bn, the EU $187bn, Japan $65.7bn and the UK $58.6bn.

That alone should give the thoughtful 5% of us pause for thought. But it’s Anna’s background which makes this a great article. For it comes at a time when countries like the USA and the UK are busily cutting their overseas aid budgets. Which is shows a worrying lack of self interest on their parts. For one thing, antibiotic resistance will not be confined to poorer countries: but it is much more likely to develop in them. Secondly, being at the forefront of pioneering science can spin off the most amazing business and technological opportunities for the more astute kind of entrepreneur. And thirdly, and most acutely for their voter base: if the health system in those poor contries collapses, guess where their populations will pitch up? “Stands ter reason,dunnit, mate?” as our old friend Dave Watford is fond of stating. Thanks, Dave- you’ve got it right this time.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jul/20/superbugs-could-kill-millions-more-and-cost-2tn-a-year-by-2050-models-show

[2]https://www.cgdev.org/media/forecasting-fallout-amr-economic-impacts-antimicrobial-resistance-humans

#antibiotic resistance #health #medicine #economics

Could this new mRNA vaccine end cancer?

In the UK alone cancer accounts for 24% of all deaths.[1] Which means you, gentle reader have a close to one in four chance of going that way. You might hope that someone might do something about it. Today we bring you news that somebody has, via the industrious Luke Andrews of the Daily Mail [2] But before then, a tiny apology.

Because in reporting this we have no desire to disparage the heroic efforts of scientists, doctors, fund raisers and honest-to-God patients who have already done so much to ameliorate and already effect cures for this terrible disease. Luke’s story could be a game changer-but only because it comes at the ned of an enormous process of scholarship and research. That said, it is truly exciting. Firstly, because it tries to use the new mRNA vaccines which came of age during the COVID 19 pandemic. Secondl, because it offers a hope, however tentative at this stage, of a universal vaccine. Luke explains matters really well,. with all the links you need to the source journals, so we’ll leave you to him. Upbeat to say the least.

Vaccines are a contentious subject. We have talked about cancer vaccines here before(LSS 24 5 21 et al) and are aware of the mixed reactions we get. We suspect that not all anti-vaxxers are bad people: among them you will will find the stubborn types who refuse to accept any information coming down from above on whatever subject. Grit in the wheels of the machine; but one day you just might need them. But we in what might be called the empirically based community have our uses too.(we invented the computer you’re reading this on) it’s time for a dialogue, instead of hissing and growling at each other like so many cats and dogs. The patients deserve that.

[1]https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/mortality

[2]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14919401/immune-hack-vaccine-mrna.html

#mRNA #cancer #vaccine #medicine #health

Closing the Fleming Fund-a bad day for antibiotics

One of the few certain things in life, apart from death and taxes, is to go to the bar of the Dog and Duck and there eavesdrop on opinions on the question of the UK Foreign Aid budget. “We got omeless on ahr streets, an dere sendin billions abrawd!” “We’re taxed to the ilt, an’ they’re givin it away!” are some of the politer opinions we dare repeat here. How ironic for them to see a hated Labour Government make the very cuts they so long for. But our pleasure is short lived..

For the Government seems ready to abolish The Fleming Fund. [1] A body set up in 2015 and named after the the illustrious pioneer of penicillin, the fund states its purpose as a

UK aid programme supporting up to 25 countries across Africa and Asia to tackle antimicrobial resistance. The Fund is managed by the Department of Health and Social Care and invests in strengthening surveillance systems through a portfolio of country and regional grants, global projects and fellowship schemes.

But-what goes around comes around, as the old saying has it. Antibiotic resistant superorganisms know no national boundaries. If they evolve in the third world, they will be here soon. This decision appears to be very short sighted.

We sympathise with a government caught in a hard place between the obdurate creed that says taxes must never rise, and the urgent need for spending to achieve at least a minimal defence capacity. Perhaps the real problem is not economic, or biological, but philosophical. For if the world is divided into competing nation states, what choice does each government have but to look after its own immediate interests? And if nations arm, each in mutual fear of its neighbours, what hope for spending on international co-operative efforts like the Fleming Fund? Perhaps the trick for LSS and its readers is not to develop more antibiotics, but to persuade millions of the sorts of people who go to the Dog and Duck to realise this simple truth.

_{thanks to J Read}

[1]https://bsac.org.uk/closure-of-the-fleming-fund-risks-undermining-uk-leadership-on-amr/

[2]https://www.flemingfund.org/about-us/

#fleming fund #overseas aid #antibiotic resistance #health #medicine #microorganisims

Calling all Billionaires: Please read this blog

John Caudwell[1] is no fool. Anyone who has started a company like Phones4U and turned it into a multibillion pound company must be pretty well endowed in the brains department. Yet he has one particularly intriguing belief. He believes in meritocracy: he is deeply suspicious of the idea of inherited wealth. If you want to know more about why you can hear home talking to Tony Hawks in this podcast [2] Tony Hawks is Giving Nothing Away on the BBC. But essentially Caudwell thinks that in the long run his children will lead healthier, happier lives if they have to make their own way. Like he did.

We don’t know about individuals. But we know societies function better if the follow Caudwell’s prescriptions. Old LSS hands will recall our long time advocacy of the works of Thomas Piketty [3] and Wilkinson and Pickett. [4]Who show that societies with more equal economic structures have better health outcomes, lower crime, more scientific innovation and much higher social mobility, than less equal peers. One of their key findings was that wealth hoarded into family dynasties is one of the key blockers of healthily mobile societies.

Which is why Caudwell has joined the Giving Pledge. [5]No it’s not a marxist commie plot: it’s run by some of the richest people on the planet. In the words of the organisation’s own website:

Pledgers support a wide array of issues in every corner of the globe and give in a multitude of ways. What unites them is a shared promise and a commitment to creating an impact.

Wealth can be spent in two ways. It can be wasted in endless competitions as to who drinks the best bottle of wine, drives the fastest Rolls Royce or has the biggest yacht. Or it can be re invested like this creating a healthier better world, with-who knows?-maybe even enough antibiotics. if you really want to spend your money to make your children safe, this is the way to do it. If you are a billionaire, thank you for reading. If you are not-find one gentle readers, and press the works of the Giving Pledge into their hands.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Caudwell

[2]https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/m002fj92

[3] Thomas Piketty Capital in the 21st Century Harvard University Press 2014

[4] Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett The Spirit Level Penguin 2009

[5]https://www.givingpledge.org/pledger/john-caudwell/

#john caudwell #the giving pledge #economics #philanthropy # equality #social mobility