Nobel Prize for Economics shows this blog was right all along

Back in the dark days of January 2021, when the world economy was reeling from the savage hit of the COVID-19 pandemic, we published a short blog called How to Get some Free Money(LSS 2 1 21) Everyone at that time was worried about the colossal debts their governments had run up to pay for the catastrophe-were we all to be bankrupt for ever? Our point was that Science and Technology were the key to economic success. Encourage them. and you will grow your way out of debt. However hard a medieval peasant worked and saved he could never hope to achieve the productive levels of a man with a steam driven plough.

How comforting then, to find that better, more profound minds have demonstrated this truth at a Nobel level. By incredibly detailed studies Joel Mokyr, Phillipe Aghion and Peter Howitt [1] have looked at archives, crunched the numbers, weaved out feedback loops and carried out any number of other careful ratiocinations to prove the point. You can read more here [2] if you like graphs and words and things. But for us three things stand out.

There has to be abstract learning first. Many of the ideas and processes that drove the industrial revolution had appeared a hundred years before as the abstruse discoveries of thinkers like Newton and Hooke, which the average man in the street would have called “bonkers!”. There has to be a social ecology of skilled and trained workers, able to quickly deploy and develop the new ideas. In the eighteenth century this meant craftsmen like watchmakers and weavers. Now it means experts in AI and biotechnology. Finally a society must be open to rapid change: and welcome it where possible. For if you do not, someone will rapidly steal your markets with a new idea you could have developed but didn’t, because the old ways were tied and tested(think Kodak and digital cameras) [3]

All of which has relevance now, especially in the United States of America and the UK. In both those countries there is a growing movement to throw over renewable energy technologies and move back to coal and oil as soon as possible. We understand the fears and share some of the nostalgia for a bygone age which the proponents of this U turn so plainly demonstrate, Yet we also recognise that other countries will not. They will adapt clean green technologies rather fast. Not only will this leave the Anglo-Saxon economies hopelessly far behind. Their pollution will also make them a dangerous threat to other places in the world. Places which may seek to shut down that danger by whatever means necessary.

[1]https://www.nobelprize.org/all-nobel-prizes-2025/

[2]https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2025/10/advanced-economicsciencesprize2025.pdf

[3]https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2012/01/18/how-kodak-failed/

#science #technology #growth #innovation #digital cameras #renewable energy

Hello we’re back-and we have Nobel Prizes!

First of all, apologies for our forced and utterly unwanted absence. But Domestic Renovations, and the sorts of people who carry them out, can be as tiresome and time-consuming as any other human relationship which the Gentleman Scholar must negotiate -domestic staff mistresses and lovers, cleaners, mechanics, and countless others. All require patient listening, multiple cups of tea and hefty pay offs, if only to still their incessant demands for even a moment. But here we are back again where it counts-with you, gentle readers. And we are glad to say that we return with one of our favourite sequences of the year. It’s Nobel Prize season again. [1]

For us, the Nobel prizes are the very essence of what this blog is all about. That careful learning and scholarship are not only what lifts our lives above the miserable condition of wild apes (well, some of us): they constitute the only only possible escape route from our current plights, many of which are serious and grave. And this time we think we can prove it. with the help of three of the very winners themselves-how’s that for endorsement, ladies and gentlemen? That’s the prize which will receive our first detailed attention, in the next blog: but let’s start with a roll call of the stupendously intelligent people who have stood out this year as the cream of humanity

Physics: John Clarke Michel H Devoret John M Martins Amazing work “for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit” Yup, we kind of lost too it after the fourth word in the citation, but we’ll try to understand it better in time for a later blog

Chemistry Susuma Kitagawa Richard Robson Omar M Yaghi Want to capture Carbon dioxide, water in the desert, store toxic gases and many other things? These discoveries will let you do all of them. If this isn’t right on the raison d’etre of this blog, we don’t know what is. Again, come back later for more

Physiology and/or Medicine Anything in these fields must be close to an LSS reader’s heart. So the work of Mary E Brunkow, Fred Ramsdell and Shimon Sakaguchi on the tricky world of the immune system requires our most emphatic hats-off

Literature and Peace Intelligence can be of the Emotional kind as well as the academic, as many of us discover with agonising slowness and pain. So although these subjects lie outside the remit of our blog we are proud to give honourable mentions to László Krasznahorkai and Maria Corina Machado respectively (is she a relative of Antonio Machado the famous Spanish poet, we wonder?-ed)

But finally our first next blog on this subject, as t’were, will be devoted to the patient Economics work of Joel Mokyr, Phillipe Aghion and Peter Howitt. Because finally they have shown at Nobel level, what we have believed for so long. It’s science and learning that drives the economy. Which is where we go next time.

[1] https://www.nobelprize.org/all-nobel-prizes-2025/

#nobel prizes #economics #physics #chemistry #medicine #physiology #economics

Heroes of Learning: Leonardo Pisano(Fibonacci)

Have you ever looked at the strange spiral in a broccoli floret and wondered how it got like that? Or hundreds of other things in nature from the shapes of waves on the beach to the arrangements of artichoke leaves? The answer to all this and much more was discovered by Leonardo Pisano, better known to the modern world as Fibonnaci.(C1170 AD-c 1245) [1] [2]

A bright lad from Pisa in Italy, his big break came when his father took him on a business trip to Bugia in what is now called Tunisia. Father and son met an Arab mathematician (the Islamic world was still far ahead in science and technology) who kindly showed them the amazing new numbering system which they had learned in turn from the Hindus. The young Leo realised at once that this strange numerical system of 0, 1 2-9 was utterly superior to the cumbersome Roman system of letters( V X MCXCCVL, etc) On his return to Italy he published the Liber Abaci, whose short 27 or so chapters are one of the most significant books in the canon of western learning. Not only did it update all and sundry on the new number system. Not only was it full of useful applications for this system. Above all it promulgated an intriguing new sequence of numbers which goes 0,1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…..to infinity. Each number in the sequence is formed by adding the two before. Dividing one by its predecessor quickly gets to the Golden ratio, which artists and architects have been using as on of the most aesthetically pleasing constructions for centuries.

We have alluded here before to odd mathematical structures such as pi and Eulers number: which show up again and again in nature: Fibonacci’s sequence is another of them. We have no idea why, but then: nor does anyone else. But the real significance of Fibonacci was his timing. For the first time, and after a long sleep, Western Europe was starting to make original contributions in natural sciences. And it did it by borrowing humbly from other more learned cultures. A lesson we should not forget today.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci

[2]https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zm3rdnb

#fibonacci #mathematics #middle ages ##tunisia #india #biology #architecture

Human Evolution: More muddle in the middle?

Taking time out as ever from more serious matters, we return to our old playground of human evolution. And not just for R and R, important as that is. Also, because the methods and pronouncements of its scholars are important guides to how we should all approach any complicated and potentially controversial subject.

Until recently the origin of our own species seemed fairly clear cut. It emerged from a pack of other big-brained contenders (think Denisovans and Neanderthals among others) starting around 250 000 years ago, in Africa, and clearing the rest of the field no later than 35000 years BP. However recent work by Professor Chris Stringer of London’s prestigious Natural History Museum and colleagues have now cast this into doubt. It is even possible that the line leading to Homo sapiens may have started to go its own way before 1000 000 years BP. You can read why in these takes from Jonathan Chadwick of the Mail here [1] or a slightly extended version in the museums own PR piece here [2] It all goes back to 1990 and the discovery of a rather squashed skull called Yunxian 2 which was attributed to Homo erectus: a perfectly reasonable decision at the time. But using advanced new reconstruction techniques Stringer and his colleagues assert

……… Yunxian 2 displays a unique combination of primitive and more advanced traits. These include a large, squat braincase and a more projecting lower face, similar to Homo erectus. At the same time, derived features in the face and rear of the braincase, as well as a larger brain capacity, are closer to later species such as Homo longi (‘Dragon Man’) and Homo sapiens.

We have been following this game for for nearly six decades: so what do we think? First Chris Stringer is a fine scholar whom we have always admired. Secondly, we welcome all attempts to re evaluate data and set it in new contexts: that way real learning occurs. Our caveat is more with practice . Always and again in human evolution, new fossils found are baptised with confident new binomial Latin names in the great Linnean tradition. Then vast conclusions are drawn, which, in our experience, are substantially revised some years later. This has led not only to the muddle in the middle to which the articles allude. There are plenty more early on the story, and more than one much later on. We think the first clearing step should be to talk less about species, and more about gene frequencies populations. and ways of life. These clearly cluster at points of excavation, such as Afar, Java or Atapuerca to name but a few. But each point, however iconic, is represented by relatively few bones. There are enormous gaps in space and time between each, into which genes and populations must have been flowing all the time. Is it not possible that there has only been one human line all along, and that many of the variations are likely due to factors such as ecology, climate or isolation? The real answer is to dig, dig and dig again.

[1]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15132633/skull-pushes-origins-400-000-years.html

[2]https://www.nhm.ac.uk/press-office/press-releases/analysis-of-reconstructed-ancient-skull-pushes-back-our-origins-.html

#paleoanthropology #human evolution #clade #species #Homo sapiens #China

If all the wealth in the world were shared out, what would happen?

Many decades ago, we often used to hear the argument “if all the money in the country were shared out, everyone would only get 20p” A tiny sum, which could not make any difference to daily life. This was the UK in 1973, Perhaps it was true then, there. Is it true of the world as a whole today?

The statement itself is a cognitive howler: because it equates wealth with money, carefully avoiding the inclusion of all the goods, capital infrastructure(IT systems, railways, etc.) and productive resources such as factories that make up the wealth of the world, which is best expressed as GDP. When we set out to find what that was, the best estimate was from the World Bank,[1] who put it at $105 trillion in 2023. Now, the population of the world is around 8 billion (8×10⁹) people. What would happen if we found a way to share that GDP among all of them? The answer is: everyone ends up with an an income of $13 125 a year. Which surprised us greatly. Instead of being insignificant, its actually quite a lot. Let us explain why.

That same world bank defines four categories of national income by GDP. Low: $1 135 or less. Lower Middle: $1 136-$4 465. Upper Middle: $4 466- $13 845. High: $13 846 and anything above. There is enough wealth in the world to raise everyone almost to the level of high income countries, certainly to the very top of the middle range.

Now there may be very good reasons why this cannot be done. Some are practical. Some are moral. But if it were done, what difference might it make to such issues as mass migration, educational attainment, and the overall level of demand in the world economy? Let alone health, security and basic nutrition. Just a thought.

[1]https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-worldbank

#wealth #GDP per capita #economics #inequality #migration #health #geography #economics

The Best time to have been alive #4: Al-Andalus

Des kand meu Cidello venid/ton bona al-bishaara /com ray de shol yeshed/fi waad al-hiraaara*

When my Lord Cidello comes, what good news! He shines like a ray of sun on Guadalajara

When someone suggested we tackle Muslim Cordoba at its peak (roughly, the Emirate and Caliphate, 750 -1031 AD in the western calendar), we were unprepared for the cornucopia of historical riches that awaited. But, as both frequent holidaymakers in the Iberian peninsula, and speaking a smattering of Spanish at least, here goes anyway.

The story starts with Abd al-Rahman I, the “Falcon ” who fled a purge in Baghdad and founded the Emirate of Córdoba in 756. His survival story—crossing the Euphrates, losing his brother, and arriving in al-Andalus as a lone prince—is cinematic. He united fractious Muslim territories and laid the groundwork for a multicultural society. Córdoba became a haven for Muslims, Christians, and Jews, with Arabic, Berber, Romance, and Hebrew spoken in its markets and courts. The Great Mosque (Mezquita), begun under his reign, symbolized this fusion—its horseshoe arches and layered aesthetics echoing both Damascus and Iberia

Under Abd al-Rahman III, who declared the Caliphate in 929, Córdoba reached its zenith. The city boasted paved streets, public baths, and over 400,000 catalogued books in al-Hakam II’s library. Irrigation systems turned Andalusian soil into a breadbasket, exporting silk from Toledo, leather from Córdoba, and steel from Damascus- Scholars like Ibn Masarra and later Ibn Hazm flourished, while Jewish thinkers such as Hasdai ibn Shaprut advised the Caliph and translated medical texts. The court at Madinat al-Zahra shimmered with diplomatic prestige, hosting envoys from Byzantium and the Holy Roman Empire.

But all golden ages come to end. After the fall of the last strongman, Al Manzor, the Caliphate quickly declined into petty little kingdoms called taifas, each jealously guarding its privileges and rights. Easy prey indeed for the larger Christian states to the north. Yet the legacy of convivencia—coexistence—echoed through European Renaissance thought. Andalusia wasn’t just a place, but a possibility. A cultural experiment in coexistence, beauty, and intellectual ferment[2] which makes it a contender for one of history’s “best times to be alive.”

[1] Al-Andalus – Wikipedia

[2] The Ornament Of The World by Maria Rosa Menocal | Waterstones

*Yehuda Halevi celebrating Yosef ibn Ferrusiel in a kharja ending a muwashshah c 1100 AD

* Kharja attached to a muwashshah attributed to Yehuda Halevi c 1095 AD

#al-Andalus #islaam #abd-al-rahman #Cordoba #Caliphate #Emirate #Spain #Portugal #Arabic

Co-LAB-oration, or why its good news UK is back in Horizon

Science is good for economic growth. It’s theme we’ve touched on before in this blog(LSS 4 10 23; 1 3 24) So any initiative that builds on this incontrovertible fact will meet with our approval. if only because we want a higher standard of living next year. Which is why we showcase this article by Lisa O’Carroll of the Guardian [1] which reviews progress of the UK’s revived membership of the EU administered Horizon Programme, which tries to bring together the efforts of scientists technologists and scholars from across many countries.

It may soothe the objections of our more rabid eurosceptic readers, to learn that almost half the members (20:27) are not in the European Union, but are located as far afield as Canada and New Zealand (“is that Bri’ish Empoire enuff fer yer, Guv?”) But because science is a collaborative process it helps if you can recruit your teams from close neighbours, if only because it saves on things like travel costs on the day of the interview. We need not discourse long on close financial and technological links as Lisa covers them well in her article. It’s a cultural link of a different stripe which makes us think that rejoining was the right decision.

For what the UK and its fellow members have in common is that they are open societies, where information and people flow freely. The other possible partner, the USA, is showing strong signs of both damaging the free flow of information as well as launching major attacks on both the funding and the very work of scientists, as our readers well know. The Horizon programme and the countries that contribute, are the genuine heirs of both the Renaissance and Enlightenment. Societies that abandon the practice of truth and reason soon fall into cultural and economic stagnation. Just as being in UEFA is a sound bet for British Football Clubs, so is Horizon for British Universities. A good news day forr once

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/aug/12/uk-recovers-position-horizon-europe-science-research-eu-brexit

[2]https://commission.europa.eu/funding-tenders/find-funding/eu-funding-programmes/horizon-europe_en

#science #technology #economics #EU #UK #renaissance #enlightenment #donald trump

The Best Time to have been alive #2: Rome under Augustus

Imagine a group of friends sitting in the late afternoon in the square of a little town in northern Italy. A retired soldier, perhaps. A few successful traders-builders. metal workers, maybe a small-scale farmer or two. In the shade of some cypress trees they nibble at bread and olives, sip the deep red wine of the region, and discuss the latest news. But this is not modern Italy: this is a town like Bolonia¹ or Mutina² in the Age of the Emperor Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus. And the news they discuss is simple. The profound peace that has settled over the whole world from the northern shores of Gaul to the deserts of Syria.

Augustus’ political settlement has ended the long decades of war and instability that tore the old Roman Republic to pieces. It’s one man rule now, and no elections are truly contested. But the legions are fully paid up and back on the frontiers. Behind them, a network roads links towns like this to an almost uncountable number of similar ones. There is increasing uniformity of architecture, arts , language as Latin and Greek spread even into the forests of Germany. Above all the seas are open again, with a single Roman fleet dominating the whole Mediterranean basin. There is a universal system of laws and money, all well enforced. No wonder trade is picking up and everything seems to be getting better year by year. It’s unlikely anyone in our group were literate. But maybe one or two of their sons will go on to study law or engineering in one of the cities like Rome or Mediolanum³. In which case they may well encounter the works of writers Livy, Ovid and Horace, or architects like Vitruvius, all active in this time. Compared to previous generations, this group has a lot to be thankful for.

There were deficiencies of course: the facade of a golden age always hides them. The position of women and slaves was not to be envied. Even non-Roman provincials were very much second class. All power was, in the last resort, concentrated in the person of one man, which made i things potentially very unstable. And, though they could not have known it, the empire was living through a very favourable era called the Roman Climatic Optimum (200 BC-200AD). Its breakdown would produce some very uncomfortable consequences for Augustus’ distant successors. But that is to anticipate. Augustus was a first rate political genius, whose settlement brought over two hundred years of peace and prosperity, with a single brief exception. To have been there, at the beginning, must have made it a very good time to live indeed.

1 Bologna 2 Modena 3 Milano

#roman empire #augustus #peace #ovid #pax romana

The best time to be alive: Candidate #1 Tang Dynasty China

Imagine you lived in the greatest city in the world. Its streets are bustling with merchants who buy and sell goods from every known country, and many more that lie beyond the limits of knowledge. Such was Chang’an, (now Xi’an) capital and chief entrepot of China’s Tang dynasty (618-903 CE)[1][ With nearly a million residents and over 100 ethnic communities, it was more Babel than Beijing. Zoroastrian fire temples stood beside Buddhist pagodas and Nestorian churches; street food fused Middle Eastern spices with Chinese noodles. Foreign diplomats rubbed shoulders with camel-driving traders from Samarkand. The city was so tolerant and worldly that speaking Turkic or Persian on the street raised no eyebrows. Poets such as Li Bai and Du Fu flourished , as did artists such as Han Gan and Zhang Yuan. There were far reaching technological advances such as wood block printing and all presided over by relatively benign Emperors backed by a professional and highly educated Civil Service.

We’ve picked the Tang because it illustrates the essential doctrines of the great Professor RH Davis who knew that it was trade that made cities, and cities which make humans civilised. He was writing about Europe. Yet Chang’an under the Tang was one example of what humans can achieve when they try. No wonder the modern Chinese feel they need take no lessons from westerners in how to run a civilisation. The Silk Road was essentially a Chinese invention. It was, and maybe still is, the greatest trading system in the world.

It all ended in tears of course, as did many of the other examples we shall consider in this series. The Lushan rebellion of 755-763 inflicted economic and human wounds so deep that the dynasty never fully recovered. And obviously there have been many advances in technical knowledge and in things like medicine, since the Tang fell. But if you wanted to give an example of when the ordinary Joe, people like you and me, could step from their house and feel a glad confident good morning, Tang China is a very good place to start.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_dynasty

[2] RHC Davis: A History of Medieval Europe from Constantine to St Louis 2nd edition Longman 1988

#china #Tang dynasty #trade #silk road #civil service #history

When was the best time to have been alive? Start of a new series

When was the best time in History that you could have lived in? With all the problems facing us now, like climate change, rising xenophobia, faltering economies-it’s natural for the mind to wander to other times and other places , where they had it good, in ways that we just can’t seem to manage.

It’s easy to idealise bits of the past when you didn’t have to live there and use the toilets. It’s also easy to make mistakes. “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive!” declared Wordsworth, while on a tour of Revolutionary France. He just got out with his life, as did many other deluded middle class intellectuals. And even the Nazis tried to drum up a cultural vibe, what with Leni Reifenstahl and all that modernist architecture. That duly said, it is possible to pick out certain periods when the humans really did seem to be doing better for a while. Like a football team putting together a run of successful results. We will try to identify those times using the following criteria, if you will forgive us, gentle readers.

There has to be peace, or general political stability, over a wide area. We”ll illustrate this with a counter example: Beethoven and Schubert wrote some pretty good music during the Napoleonic wars, but you wouldn’t have wanted to have lived through those wars would you?

Learning is advancing, preferably big time : despite all the wars and coruuption, Big Stuff was happening in Renaissance Italy- arts, sciences, architecture, you name it. By that criterion. all those Cardinals and Condottieri have to be in with a shout

Trade must boom According to the great Professor Davis, this is the great sine qua non of civilisation

The staging must be right The backdrop of islands and temples etc gives the Classical Greeks an enormous leg-up before they even take the pitch. Whereas Lancashire in the Industrial revolution? You mainly died at thirty, after a lifetime of bracing hard work. Although it probably felt like much longer.

There must be a long running cultural movement No one sat down one day and declared “OK chaps, it’s the Bronze Age and humanity stands on the edge of a bright new frontier. Put away all those stone tools and mammoth skins, and let’s start living in cities!” The periods we refer to must be embedded in a long movement of progress and general moving forward.

And all too often they come at the end of it. The swinging sixties ended in strikes and inflation. The Renaissance city states were leaned upon, terminally, by much bigger places like France and Spain. The long peace of Rome degenerated into the Crisis of the Third Century. But we are nothing if not triers here. And so our first try in the next blog of the series will be China in the Tang dynasty 618-907 AD, using the western calendar. Let’s see if they were really, really, like, cool?

#renaisance #history #china #greeks #learning #science #society