Beyond the Nation: we conclude

In March we opened a new series called Beyond the Nation(LSS 5 3 26), which suggested that there are a number of practical , and very pressing problems which could be more efficiently addressed if the response were global rather than by the current group of 193 or so mutually suspicious, jealously competing, nation states. In particular we looked at things like pollution, disaster relief, and the economic brakes imposed by creating national identities,

Thinking about it, that last is the very heart of what we’re on about, isn’t it? Because national identities are really, no viscerally, important to people. They have more power over our minds than any alternatives offered by religions, class, sports teams or profession. They not only define who we are: they define the behaviour others expect of us, and more importantly, the behaviour we expect of ourselves. And no one can deny the critical importance they have played at times when freedom was in critical jeopardy. Would Ukraine have sustained the fight against Russia for so long without a crucial sense of its own identity? Or for that matter would the USSR have sustained its own fight against the Nazis without incorporating a strong sense of Russian Nationalism? All this, and more can can be set in the balance for the Nation as the highest form of organising human societies, as we have argued elsewhere. (LSS passim: see our World Government series)

Yet nations are transient, fleeting things. Where are the Spartans or the Akkadians now? Men and women lived and died for their causes, and many like them, across thousands of years of history. Yet the real drivers of existence are huge impersonal things like climate, disease or massive technological leaps such as the Industrial Revolution. Britain spent immense quantities of treasure and lives trying to defend a position it had established in the Age of Sail, only to discover that the Age of Steam made all its efforts irrelevant[1] And so the question becomes “If your identity is so important, what price are you prepared to pay to maintain it?” Because if technologies can change, so can societies, and the identities which they generate.

We shall close the series with a personal anecdote, a thing we rarely do, Many many years ago still trapped in Undergraduate adolescence we were debating the question of Britain’s membership of what was then called the European Community with a fellow inmate, albeit far more intelligent than ourselves Being good Young Socialists we then followed the Orthodox Labour Party Line: that the UK should leave forthwith. Being entirely of independent mind (and far less neurotic) our interlocutor laughed and observed “You would have been against joining up Wessex with Mercia, wouldn’t you?” A quiet wisdom which time has made more memorable than almost any other things we have ever heard or read.

[1]Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House, 1987. London: Unwin Hyman, 1988. ISBN: 0394546741 (US hardback); 0049230737 (UK hardback). see especially chapter 3

#nation state #society #politics #history #russia #ukraine #USSR #Britain #economics

Farewell Robert Skidelsky. If you want to know more about the current mess, read this

No one over thirty will forget the terrifying autumn of 2008. For on September 15^th of that year the collapse of Lehman Brothers initiated the acute phase of a chronic financial crisis, tumbling the world economy towards final ruin. And as the indefatigable Larry Elliott [1] notes in the Guardian, in his masterly obituary of Robert Skidelsky, the ruling classes of the west were utterly bewildered:

…… there was almost universal disbelief that the crisis was happening. The entire economic establishment – politicians, bankers, Treasury officials, analysts and pundits – were caught unawares, because according to the free-market orthodoxy there was no chance of such a catastrophe occurring

Robert Skidelsky (1929-2026) might have known better. Having devoted a lifetime to studying the works of John Maynard Keynes, he presumably shared that thinker’s suspicion of the axiomatic beneficence of untrammelled Free Markets. Ironically by the summer of 2008 even he felt the Keynesian game was up, and was contemplating other projects, as Elliott points out. Then, as they say-It happened.

For a few fleeting months Keynes was in vogue again, so desperate was the plight of the Great and Good. Interest rates were cut. Money printed. Governments borrowed and spent, Catastrophe was averted. And then? Well, in Britain the Cameron government was elected and reverted to the via dolorosa of financial orthodoxy. Cutting the budget was all that mattered, as if a nation was like a grocer’s shop in a small market town. Keynes was firmly shown the door: and the consequences of poverty, lost growth, wasted lives and appalling political outcomes are with us to this day.

Like Keynes, Skidelsky was not a tribal Party man, having variously flirted with Labour, the SDP, the Tories, and even Jeremy Corbyn in his time. Both Keynes and Skidelsky preferred solutions that worked, reason and evidence over belief and emotion. And both knew that Keynes’ essential insight was that money is about a lot more than just cash, or even more sophisticated accountants’ tricks like stocks and shares. Money is really a network of obligations, contracts, promises and deliveries which facilitate the flow of energy through human societies and by which they live. Any system which depends ultimately on the unregulated competition of lone individuals will ultimately corrupt the information and break the trust on which all depend. A truth now lost in the declining plutocracies of the west, but which certain other parties have understood very well

[1] Lord Skidelsky obituary | Robert Skidelsky | The Guardian

[2] Skidelsky, Robert. John Maynard Keynes: 1883–1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman. London: Penguin Books.

#robert skidelski #JM Keynes #economics #politics #financial crash

Camilla Cavendish Confounds the Conspiracists

Photo by Hartono Creative Studio on Pexels.com

Of all the columnists we follow, Camilla Cavendish of the Financial Times is one of the most clear-eyed and objective. But the reason we’re showcasing her today is because she has turned her mind to that old LSS favourite: conspiracy theories and their devotees. Here is the reference [1] but because it’s behind the FT paywall* we’ll provide a short summary, clearly distinguishing Camilla’s points from our own riff on them, which is demarcated below.

CAMILLA SAYS

She notes sadly that an old pal (University educated!) has fallen for the hoary old belief that anthropogenic global warming is a hoax. Which leads her to consider why people need Conspiracy Theories: their History (apparently they had previous spikes around the troubled years 1900 and 1950): that people have an inherent tendency to believe facts that confirm their existing beliefs: and most chilling of all, that believing one conspiracy acts as a gateway to believing all, as the susceptible mind links the dots between anything and everything. Astutely, she notes that the provision of facts and reason almost never help the sufferers, because these do not address the deep emotional and psychological needs which are really driving participation in these modern cults. She even provides further reading: a book called Foolproof: why we Fall for Misinformation by Professor Sander. Camilla concludes with an admirable determination to read more things that she disagrees with. A form of mental training also recommended by Bertrand Russell, another much admired favourite of this blog.

OUR THOUGHTS

She’s right, sadly. For us, what’s so depressing is the way that conspiracy theories and misinformation on just about anything choke up the worldwide interweb like bindweed in a garden. The intellectual level of much conspiracy discourse-the use of language, evidence and reason-reminds us of the old Anonymous Letters we used to examine long ago in a Police Laboratory, long before the internet could spread such rubbish universally. So we’ve little enough to add, frankly. Except perhaps some further reading into Social Identity Theory as pioneered by the great Drs Tajfel and Turner [3], and its depressing observations that the species we are forced to belong to tends to draw its conclusions about what is true from the opinions of others rather than an objective consideration of the facts. In which case the only remedy is to choose you friends, family and above all, masters, with extreme care.

* or is it? Gentle readers when we clicked on this the whole thing came up in which case you can read all of Camilla’s article for yourselves. Go on, try it

[1] It’s far too easy to get sucked down a conspiracy theory rabbit hole

[2] Foolproof: Why We Fall for Misinformation and How to Build Immunity
London: Fourth Estate, 2023.ISBN: 978-0008466764

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_identity_theory#:~:text=As%20originally%20formulated%20by%20social%20psychologists%20Henri%20Tajfel,the%20activities%20in%20which%20o

Conspiracy theory #climate change #misinformation #internet #social identity theory #camilla cavendish #financial times

The Emperor Julian’s strategic disaster: are their any modern parallels?

When the Emperor Julian the Apostate [1] took the Imperial throne in 361AD, he inherited an Empire far past its peak. Although still close to full size, centuries of economic decline, pandemics and civil wars had left it gravely weakened and divided. But Julian was nothing if not idealistic. He would make Rome great again by restoring all the old ways of its Imperial zenith. And his chosen method was a culture war: he would overthrow the new religion of Christianity and restore the traditional Roman beliefs of the Pagan Gods.

But it takes more than a few decrees and orders to restore an nation in decline. Within a year the Empire was even more divided by the passions his reforms had unleashed. Prestige damaged, project weakened, Julian had one last way to seize the initiative. To invade Rome’s traditional enemy Persia ( a country now called Iran) and crushing them with superior military might. Thus his own prestige would be so enhanced that everyone at home would have to do what he said. It was tempting operation: he was a good general, the Roman Army was still a formidable force, the ruling Sassanid dynasty of ~~Iran,~~ sorry, Persia, was both oppressive and unpopular. So in the Spring of 363 Julian led his army across the Euphrates in a lightning march designed to shock and awe his enemies into submission.

At first all went well. Towns were captured, battles won, territories seized. But the Sassanids, masters of asymmetric warfare, refused to play by Roman rules. They harried, retreated, drew Julian deeper and deeper into hostile terrain. Supply lines thinned, losses mounted and the army grew increasingly unsure. We have an eyewitness account from a Roman Officer who served in the campaign:

The Persians, avoiding a regular engagement, harassed us with frequent skirmishes, and by burning the country round, deprived us of the means of subsistence.”
— Ammianus Marcellinus, Res Gestae, Book XXV, Chapter 1

Eventually the Sassanids closed the trap. Julian was mortally wounded. His successor was forced to surrender the army and retreat in disgrace. But the real loss was far graver than that. Julian had made the last gamble of the undivided Roman Empire-and lost. His culture war did not outlive him, for the empire was fully Christian within a generation. The Roman army would never be strong enough to take the strategic offensive again: it became an entirely defensive force. Even that failed at the great Battle of Adrianople in 378, which finally shattered the myth of Roman invincibility. Julian has had many admirers, both ancient and modern [2] But the verdict on him is damning. For reasons of internal prestige he launched a war with no clear strategic aims against an underestimated enemy and thereby inflicted an irretrievable strategic defeat on his own nation. Can you think of any modern parallels?

[1] Julian (emperor) – Wikipedia

[2] Gore Vidal, Julian.Vintage International (Knopf Doubleday), reissued 2003.

#Julian the Apostate #history #Persians #Iranians #Roman Empire #military

Beyond the Nation #4: Of War and Peace

Photo by Mitchell Soeharsono on Pexels.com

Themes of war and peace are constant here. Human beings, we have often said, posses a pathological tendency to divide themselves, quickly, into mutually hostile groups [1,2] And that once those identities are established, their members proceed to ascribe all evil and nefariousness to their latest enemy. [3.4] Even the most advanced and enlightened nations are not immune. We do not wish to single out the US. But remember when the North Vietnamese were about to unleash a domino effect with countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and beyond toppling to Communism, ending with the Red Flag raised in triumph over the Sydney Opera House? Or when Mr Saddam Hussein grasped weapons of mass destruction of such awesome power and reach that they threatened the lives of very man woman and child with imminent destruction?

Nations change in size, Bu the threat is the same. Our Spanish readers will recall a time when nations such as Castille, Leon, Navarre, Aragon and the various emirates to the south fought each other like tom cats. If they tried it now the Spanish Government would simply send the police to arrest the culprits. Every nation shows the same sorry trend: remember our post on the unknown skeletons of Neolithic Alava, who died for causes long rendered futile by their utter unknowability? (LSS 5 11 2023)

It is impossible to estimate the costs-economic, ecological, in lives- of the current war in the Middle East. All of us must pay them, although only three of our current nation states are directly involved. But we know they will constitute a long lasting tax on future generations. Which leads back to the United States The principle of their founding Revolution was “no taxation without representation.” So do all the other nations deserve representation in the dialectic of this war? And thereby, perhaps, to stop it while there is still time?

[1] Social identity theory – Wikipedia

[2] Realistic conflict theory – Wikipedia

[3] Chua, Amy. Political Tribes: Group Instinct and the Fate of Nations. New York: Penguin Press, 2018.

[4] Kaufmann, Eric. Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities. London: Allen Lane, 2018.

#war #social identity theory #peace #nation state #vietnam war #iraq war #middle east #saddam hussein #president george w bush

Heroes of Learning: Piero Della Francesca

Birth Virgin Fra Carnevale (Bartolomeo by themet is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0

Think back to school: did you ever know the kid who was bright at everything? Most of us were good at something, but that alone: the sporty type who to put it politely, was not too strong on sciences. The maths nerd with negative social skills. The arty type, the musician, the classroom politician…..but did you ever know someone who was brilliant all around the block? We think that Piero Della Francesca (1415-1492) must have been one of those irritating subset of pupils who really was.[1]

Apprenticed as a painter and artist in his birthplace of Borgo Santo Sepolcro, he was soon brushing up against giants like Fra Angelico, Donatello and Brunelleschi. Something must have rubbed off, because within a few years he was earning the first commissions for what was to become a remarkable canon of early Renaissance masterpieces: they remain favourites of the art-loving public to this day. And for once we can be very specific about their USP: because alongside his studies in art the young Piero had been busy studying geometry and other branches of mathematics. Their influence is not just glimpsed in his work, they are the very basis of its careful precision and intellectual rigour. Here was a Renaissance man par excellence, who can stand comparison with Leonardo or indeed the genius of any age in human history. A Polymath for All Seasons.

One of the downsides of the immense quantities of knowledge in the modern world is the way it drives ever narrower specialisation. And this is quite necessary: one must spend years studying a particular enzyme system or economic model before there is anything new to say. In the course of a long life we have met one, possibly two, polymathic geniuses who might make useful contributions in several fields in the way that Della Francesca did. But to see the light sparkle in his pictures is to glimpse a time when the educated could still delight in all discoveries, and learning seemed to be something more than a task.

[1] Piero della Francesca – Wikipedia

#art #science #polymath #Italy #renaissance #mathematics

Beyond the Nation#3: Assorted Pollution

We kicked off this series with a blog about global warming: if that’s not a pollution story, we don’t know what is. But as several of you pointed out, there are many other forms of pollution in the world, all equally insidious and all resistant to efforts to clean them up. So here we go.

Pollution is the purest demonstration of the nation state’s irrelevance. PFAS don’t recognise sovereignty. Microplastics don’t stop for border guards. Nitrates don’t care who won the last election. They move through the world according to the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology, not geopolitics. And yet we persist with a governance model that is incapable of addressing a problem so acute it threatens basic survival.

Meaning companies have every incentive to dump where enforcement is weakest. Meaning diplomatic stalemates ensure treaties — if they exist at all — move at the speed of the slowest government. Meaning a jungle equilibrium of absolute economic self‑interest prevails, and no state wants to, or can afford to, be the first to tighten rules.

Take mercury. The Minamata Convention (2013)[1] was meant to curb global pollution from this utterly unpleasant and dangerous substance. But it is a broken reed, riddled with exemptions, get‑out clauses and pulled punches. National opt‑outs, slow phase‑outs, feeble enforcement and zero penalties for non‑compliance. Global mercury emissions have not meaningfully declined since the treaty was signed — and in some sectors have increased — seeping into rivers, seas and oceans, and contaminating supposedly healthy foods with a potent neurotoxin.

And alongside mercury we could list such fracases as PFAS (no treaty at all), the Asian brown‑cloud smogs, [2] the Basel Convention on plastic waste (more holes than Emmental cheese), not to mention our own bête noire of antibiotic resistance, where a total failure of international co‑ordination may yet lead to the most deadly health emergency of all.

At no point do we blame individuals, nor look for sinners against whom we may throw stones. Everyone caught in this trap is acting in their own rational self‑interest. Governments, by definition, measure themselves against other governments. The system has worked reasonably well up to now — at least it allowed copying from better practitioners. And companies are simply obeying the iron economic rules of profit and loss, buy and sell.

The trouble is that these rules now operate globally, while regulation remains national. And all the pollutants we have mentioned fall into those gaps — where they will continue to accumulate with deadly effect.

[1] Minamata Convention on Mercury – Wikipedia [2] Asian brown cloud – Wikipedia

#pollution #governance #treaties #PFA #mercury #nitrates #antibiotic resistance

Beyond the Nation State #2: Climate Change and all that

Global warming is here, real, now and it’s getting faster.[1] God knows how many times you’ve been beaten over the head with that , and we loathe to insult your intelligence. But we live in a world of rising temperatures, melting glaciers, collapsing ocean currents, dwindling food supplies and the massive shifts in human migrations which all of these entail. And this set against the possibility of a world which could be cleaner, healthier and politically stable-consequences which a safe climate would bring.[2] So-why bring it all up again, right in the middle of a massive, near-world, war? Because we think it is the ne plus ultra example of this series’ main purpose. The existential threat of global warming is beyond the capacity of a world organised into nation states.

We take today’s reasons from History and Information Theory: is that eclectic or what? The first shows that every time nation states are faced with the issue, they duck it. As we noted before (LSS 30 8 23) the 1970s oil shocks didn’t trigger a transition; they triggered a doubling‑down on fossil dependence in the name of “energy security”. Kyoto collapsed[3] the moment the United States decided it didn’t suit its short‑term interests, and Canada followed like a polite echo. And Information theory explains why: because the nation‑state is, at heart, an information‑processing machine optimised for short‑term competitive advantage. It filters every signal — scientific, moral, existential — through the question: does this keep us ahead of our rivals in the next decade? Long‑term planetary risk is systematically down‑weighted, not because leaders are cowards, but because sovereignty itself is a bandwidth problem. No single state can act at the scale or speed required, and pretending otherwise is a comforting fantasy.

Once again we stress: we do not advocate the abolition of sovereign nation states, as to abolish them would invite utter anarchy. But, just as national governments sit above local governments there must now be some sort of global authority to deal with the dangerous, the pressing, the existential risk of utter ecological and economic collapse. And just to cheer you up, we’ve got several more like this, so keep reading.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00745-z?utm_source=Live+Audience&utm_campaign=366c08b912-nature-briefing-daily-20260309&utm_medium

[2]https://theconversation.com/four-ways-to-tackle-health-and-climate-together-and-lift-millions-of-people-out-of-poverty-276696?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=L [3] Kyoto Protocol – Wikipedia

#climate change #global warming #geopolitics #nation #state #sovereignty #meteorology

Things Beyond the Nation State #1 Introduction

Identity, belonging and how this species organises itself in groups has been a recurrent theme on this blog since we started back in the pandemic days of 2020. We’ve surveyed the work of theorists like Amy Chua: pondered sports affiliation, tribe and nation, and the several ways of belonging to each. Considered experiments in psychology and behaviour. Even speculated if there might be a World Government waiting in the decades to come. Yet up to now nothing has superseded the Nation State as the only successful and enduring method of organising our multifarious hostile tribes into larger confederations. By which they obtain common benefits of defence and low mutual trading barriers, the two sine qua nones of all statecraft. (everything else is method)

The trouble with this comforting settlement is size. Each little kingdoms of Anglo Saxon England-Wessex, Mercia and the rest-was perfectly able to provide its residents needs for hundreds of years. Until a bunch of pesky Vikings came along and nearly drove them all to utter destruction. Only by forming a larger unit, England, were the Anglo Saxons able to survive and prevail: And England became their nation in turn. A lesson repeated across many lands and times. So powerful that it begs the question: are our current polities, even the largest, now too small too indebted, to mutually jealous, to cope with the existential questions now born into the world? We repeat: this is not a call to abolish nation states which can and should continue to exist, But it may be a call for a next tier or organisation to act on those problems, and only those problems, which only it has the competence to address.

We think those problems are Global Warming, Pollution, Migration, sudden Catastrophes like pandemics, economic Inequality and Security risks from things like AI and nuclear weapons All are pressing and all interconnected at some level or other. You may suggest more, gentle readers. But in the next few weeks we will do our best to list them into some sort of order and try to consider some of the problems they pose, for you to think about. For we know of few hard and fast answers. We hope you will join us on this journey and will welcome your comments, suggestions and ideas. Keep ‘em coming.

#global warming #nuclear war #pandemic #volcano #AI #pollution #economics #history

Friday Night: a feast for the real St Valentine

Who was the real St Valentine anyway? Legend says that he was a Christian citizen martyred at Rome on 14^th February 269 and buried among the tombs on the Via Flaminia. Trouble is, the evidence is shaky. For one thing, the Eastern churches celebrate his day on 6^th July: so what was the real date? He doesn’t even get a mention in lists of saints, compiled in the Fourth century: and even his earliest appearances occur in somewhat shaky sources [1] And the Emperor then reigning Claudius II Gothicus (not the bloke from Robert Graves) has no record as a persecutor, having many more pressing matters in his in-box [2] But whether there was a real Valentinus or not, he has left us a feast which we still celebrate today: Christians of all makes and now many non-Christians too. So with the aid of a little research we thought we’d take you back to the sort of food and drink he might have f known in that cold winter day in Rome in 269 AD.

The first thing: this isn’t the opulent capital of a superpower depicted in the movies any more. The Empire has been racked by civil wars climate change and invasions for over a century. A terrible pandemic, the Plague of Cyprianus, is raging: it will carry off the Emperor and many citizens in the next few years. And Rome reflects this downturn: it is starting to look scruffy and uncared for, because the money is running out, and the Emperor is nearly always on the frontiers. But a sort of middle class, the Decuriones still survives. It’s the stratum a real Valentinus might have come from. And tonight the paterfamilias of a modest family wants to push the boat out in honour of his older brothe, who is about to return to active service with the prestigious Legio V Macedonia, in Dacia.

All the Hollywood togas, silks and linens have vanished too. People dress in rough woollen tunics with equally serviceable hooded cloaks to keep out the weather. Much is influenced by military styles: the brother even wears braccae, a curious new garment which encloses the legs in tubes of cloth joined at the top and belted at the waist. And the food reflects Rome’s beleaguered state. As this is special, there is a first course of bread (panis secundarius) and some cheese, olives and pickled vegetables. Wine is served: rough red stuff from Campania: Gaul has long been cut off by a military rebellion. It will be well watered and served in earthenware cups. The main course will be a type of stew usually made from herbs. As tonight is special, a little expensive pork has been added. Desserts are simple too: a few raisins, dried figs maybe even some honeyed dates, as Africa is still under the rightful Emperor. And the talk is not of literature or Courtesans, but of battles, taxes, and who is still alive.

Ok it’s fiction But there really was a Valentinus, this is the world he would have known. Pretty rough, pretty humble. Compare it to the pink prosecco, chocolate and lavish meals that so many will be gobbling down tomorrow. And whatever your troubles, think yourself lucky.

[1] Saint Valentine – Wikipedia

[2] Claudius Gothicus – Wikipedia

For a general history, try

Goldsworthy, Adrian. Rome: The Eclipse of the West. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2003.

#christianity #st valentine #roman empire #history #church #food #drink