What happens when Belief triumphs over evidence? Here’s one example. For most of human history, childbirth was dangerous in a way modern readers struggle to imagine. In Europe in the early 19th century, maternal mortality in hospitals could reach 10–20% in bad years. Women died not from the birth itself but from the mysterious, terrifying scourge of puerperal fever. And the explanations? The usual cocky self-serving assertions like miasmas, divine wrath, atmospheric changes. Most Doctors were confident; they knew. When thinkers like Semmelweiss suggested that the cause was filthy medical practices which spread a lethal agent he called “germs,” he was hounded from his profession. The carnage continued until Pasteur and others were finally able to show the true causes, which they did using controlled experiments, rigorous data ,and logical interpretation of their findings.
Those who think such battles to be long won would do well to read the following book review from Nature Briefings. It’s called How we know: the rise of evidence based medicine, But it’s really a gateway to how we know about anything, as opposed to just believing our own first guess
In Beyond Belief, science journalist and Nature editor Helen Pearson charts the rise of evidence-based medicine and explores how rigorous research has transformed health and social policy. Pearson shares examples of success stories, in which solid evidence overturned bad practices, and the people behind them, many of whom were treated as mavericks for championing randomized trials. “Anyone can read and enjoy the book, yet there are nuggets for experienced readers,” writes public-policy researcher Peter John in his review. “The author writes as a believer, and her passion is engaging.”
At this blog we have tried many times that only reason and evidence will ultimately ameliorate the human condition. But nowhere have we done as well as this book does. And the need is not just in medicine, but in all areas such as climate physics, economics and what still passes for political life. The central problem m is that humans are wired for belief, not evidence. Intuition, anecdote, tradition, and authority shape most human decision‑making. Cognitive biases — confirmation bias, availability bias, motivated reasoning establish certainty long before any data has arrived. Yet the cost of ignoring evidence is enormous: this summer wildfires are again raging across Europe in a way unknown before 2020. Pearson’s remedy is the same old list our side has been pushing since the age of Sir Francis Bacon : demand clear causal claims, ask what the comparison group was, look for replication,, distrust single studies, favour interventions tested in real‑world conditions, accept that “what works” is often context‑dependent But try explaining all that in the bar of the Dog and Duck.
Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works by Helen Pearson (Princeton, 2026)
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