Depressing Diptych for November #2:Falling vaccine rates

As the sun sets on the Americas, politically and economically, a new and insidious trend is only going to add to their problems. Read this from the ineffable Nature Briefing: Canada loses measles elimination status

Canada no longer holds measles elimination status after experiencing a cross-country outbreak that has persisted for more than 12 months. By default, this means that the entire Americas region has also lost its status. Infections took hold in undervaccinated Mennonite communities where the COVID-19 pandemic eroded already-shaky trust in the healthcare system — a shared source of recent measles outbreaks in the United States. The number of new cases is going down, but the loss is “a giant wake-up call that we have gaps in our public health infrastructure”, says physician-scientist Isaac Bogoch.CBC | 6 min read

If only it were just them! But it’s now a world-wide trend. According to a recent report by the WHO,[1] Measles cases rose to 10.3 million in 2023, a 20% increase from 2022, with outbreaks intensifying into 2024 and 2025. No less than 138 countries reported measles cases in the past year, with 61 facing large or disruptive outbreaks—the highest since 2019. Meningitis and diphtheria (horrid afflictions) are also re-emerging, particularly in regions with strained health systems and declining immunization coverage. And the causes? Funding cuts and humanitarian crises for one thing Access barriers, especially in marginalized communities, for another But the prime one, and most baffling to us, is our old bugbear: Misinformation and vaccine hesitancy, A fact well illustrated by a similar study from Europe which showed that vaccine hesitancy among adolescents and parents ranges from 12% to over 30%. We invite you to research more, gentle readers.

And so combining with the previous part of our Dreary Depressing Diptych of dispatches (that’s enough D’s-ed) we get a truly dismal picture of this species which has the barefaced cheek to call itself “sapiens.” If an tiger came to you an announced it was was giving up its stripes, you would counsel “don’t do it-if you throw away your principle evolutionary advantage, you will get no dinner!” Similarly if a spider monkey were to forego the use of its tail, or a real spider its web. But humanity seems determined to forego the use of its principal evolutionary advantage, its brain. Palaeontology will record what comes next.

[1]https://www.who.int/news/item/24-04-2025-increases-in-vaccine-preventable-disease-outbreaks-threaten-years-of-progress–warn-who–unicef–gavi

#vaccine #measles #diptheria #medicine #health #childhood disease

Could this new mRNA vaccine end cancer?

In the UK alone cancer accounts for 24% of all deaths.[1] Which means you, gentle reader have a close to one in four chance of going that way. You might hope that someone might do something about it. Today we bring you news that somebody has, via the industrious Luke Andrews of the Daily Mail [2] But before then, a tiny apology.

Because in reporting this we have no desire to disparage the heroic efforts of scientists, doctors, fund raisers and honest-to-God patients who have already done so much to ameliorate and already effect cures for this terrible disease. Luke’s story could be a game changer-but only because it comes at the ned of an enormous process of scholarship and research. That said, it is truly exciting. Firstly, because it tries to use the new mRNA vaccines which came of age during the COVID 19 pandemic. Secondl, because it offers a hope, however tentative at this stage, of a universal vaccine. Luke explains matters really well,. with all the links you need to the source journals, so we’ll leave you to him. Upbeat to say the least.

Vaccines are a contentious subject. We have talked about cancer vaccines here before(LSS 24 5 21 et al) and are aware of the mixed reactions we get. We suspect that not all anti-vaxxers are bad people: among them you will will find the stubborn types who refuse to accept any information coming down from above on whatever subject. Grit in the wheels of the machine; but one day you just might need them. But we in what might be called the empirically based community have our uses too.(we invented the computer you’re reading this on) it’s time for a dialogue, instead of hissing and growling at each other like so many cats and dogs. The patients deserve that.

[1]https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/mortality

[2]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14919401/immune-hack-vaccine-mrna.html

#mRNA #cancer #vaccine #medicine #health

AIDS breakthrough shows what science can do

We now live in an age when science (and the rational habits of mind it depends upon) is under attack. Heirs to the rational tradition have always had to live with religious fundamentalists who deny inconvenient truths like evolution. But nowadays attacks come thick and fast from those who wish to deny climate change, the dangers of smoking, the efficacy of vaccines and much besides. From people who nevertheless cheerfully accept other scientific findings which suit them. So, just to redress the balance we thought we’d showcase this breathtaking new advance in AIDS research which, for the first time, holds out the hope of a permanent cure.

It comes from Kat Lay of the Guardian,[1] reporting the work of the Peter Doherty Institute in Australia.[2] The background will be familiar: the great evolutionary survival trick of the HIV was to bury itself deep in certain white blood cells of the immune system, where it was immune to our attack. In the words of Kat:

In a paper published in Nature Communications, the researchers have shown for the first time that mRNA can be delivered into the cells where HIV is hiding, by encasing it in a tiny, specially formulated fat bubble. The mRNA then instructs the cells to reveal the virus. First AIDS was a death sentence: then it could be slowed with drugs. Now at last comes hope of a real cure for its 40 million or so sufferers

Science itself is a process, not a monolithic entity. It evolves, refines, and corrects itself over time. But when people selectively accept only the parts that align with their worldview, they undermine the very foundation of rational inquiry This kind of cherry-picking often stems from cognitive biases, ideological commitments, or economic incentives. Climate change denial, for example, is frequently tied to political or financial interests, while opposition to vaccines or smoking regulations can be fuelled by misinformation or personal convenience. But the deniers should remember one thing: if they do decide to overthrow the rationalists, will they put anything better in our place?

Truth is compared in Scripture to a streaming fountain; if her waters flow not in a perpetual progression, they sicken into a muddy pool of conformity and tradition.”

Milton: Areopagitica

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jun/05/breakthrough-in-search-for-hiv-cure-leaves-researchers-overwhelmed?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[2]https://www.doherty.edu.au/

#HIV #AIDS #disease #mRNA #medicine #science #climate change #smoking

If you want to know why vaccines work, read this

Today we turn our blog over lock, stock and barrel to that admirable website Nature Briefing, whose links we have posted before and will do so again. This main piece from them explains we have done so:

Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases. But for some, that is changing: a second unvaccinated child in Texas died this week from measles. Anti-vaccine misinformation is rampant, not least from members of the administration of US president Donald Trump. Globally, many children still die because they can’t get the immunizations that they should, and cuts to international aid put progress at risk.

At the same time, vaccines are reaching new heights of success: the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine appears to prevent almost all cervical cancers. Vaccines against COVID-19 were developed with unprecedented speed and saved millions of lives. And from a scientific standpoint, the future looks bright, with mRNA technology, unlocked by pandemic-era research, offering hope for new jabs against viruses such as monkeypox, and therapeutic vaccines against cancer.Nature | 6 min read

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.!!!! Please !!!!

The piece follows with some excellent, easy to understand graphics, which you will have to click on their website to look at, and which obviously we can’t reproduce here. To extract some killer facts: by eliminating smallpox, vaccines have saved 5 million lives a year. By eliminating other scourges including measles, tetanus and TB they have probably saved about 154m lives overall since 1975. That anti-vaxxers must now march their legions against HPV vaccines raises deep questions about misogyny as well as the public understanding of science.

But it’s that quote at the beginning of the nature article which as got the hook in us. “Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases.” Yep, it’s that word luxury. It’s often associated with the word Vanity. And we need a bonfire of many of those very soon.

Once again, if you want to see the graphics, do this!

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.

The Next Pandemic: Not if, but when

Wars in Ukraine, Sudan and the Middle East. Falling stock markets. Huge new tariffs on trade. Another season of fires and floods as the Northern Hemisphere warms up to summer. Yes, this is all pretty bad………but we think there is something much worse lurking in the background. This blog was born among the incalculable human and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic back in long-ago 2020. We think another one is on the way. More to the point, our opinion is shared by some much better informed and cleverer people. So we thought we would bring you their thoughts.

Writing for the Conversation [1] the erudite Professor Anthony Staines takes a long cool look at the public health scene. Despite what you might have thought COVID-19 hasn’t really gone away: it’s still killing between 500 and 1000 people a week. Measles is on the uptick as well, especially in countries where vaccination is falling out of fashion. Bird flu is now crossing over both to humans and livestock herds. But the Professor still puts his money on some as yet unkownn virus, or one that is currently flying under the radar.

The prestigious Chatham House Institute[2] serves up a complimentary view as to what this might be. Bird flu is still a strong candidate. But they have a worrying take on the Ebola virus: could some new variant of this be Professor Staines’ unknown candidate? Above all Chatham riff on the mapping studies which might give us some clue. as to where the disease will be triggered. They point to run away urbanisation, deforestation and habitat destruction as key enablers, unleashing new organisms onto populations with no effective resistance at all.

The LSS board has no particular wish to die of Ebola: it’s a horrible way to go. And if it happened to any of you, dear readers, why, we would have lost a friend. Of course we need to respond to what is immediate and tangible, like the price of eggs. But it might be worth pointing out to our leaders that they need to think long term as well.

[1]https://theconversation.com/five-years-after-the-pandemic-the-world-is-poorly-prepared-for-another-one-249906?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20fro

[2]https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/next-pandemic-when-could-it-be

#pandemic #virus #ebola #deforestation #bird flu #vaccination

Vaccine Doubts, Rational Fears

One of the curses of being an LSS reader is that we tend to see how everything is connected. The current dismays in politics, international affairs, popular perceptions of science and economics all merge into each other, meaning we cannot escape. Not even into the quiet groves and ivory towers of Académe. Not even for a moment.

Proof of this came from our reading of an excellent article in The Conversation from the learned Professor Sven Bōlte,[1] who has been investigating the depressing reasons that people, including the President-Elect of the United States of America still obdurately refuse to let go of: the idea that vaccines cause Autism. Because every one of the reasons he cites can also be cited to explain the decay of democracy. Let’s look at a few, and you’ll see what we mean

Unawareness of Evidence

“Reliably and accurately communicating research results to the public is difficult,” states Sven, “Popular media is typically superficial and often primarily interested in controversy that generates public attention.”

For research results read political issues Remember the £350 million on the side of the bus in the UK Referendum campaign? Quod erat demonstrandum

Challenges Understanding Science (shouldn’t that be “to understanding”?-ed)

“Science is complicated and in medicine there are rarely absolute truths. The public, however, might expect clear consensus or have difficulty grasping the precise nuance of the science and its findings”.

For science read economics or law. Yes they do struggle a bit with nuance, don’t they?

Doubts of science

“The human need for immediate and simple explanations for complex issues fuels misbelief”.

The word “research” does not mean sitting on the internet for 30 minutes and pasting up your favourite clicks.

Invisible success of vaccine programmes.

“Vaccination programmes are among the most cost-effective public health interventions available and have averted deaths and long-term disease on a global level in the last decades.

They take it all for granted when it works. Like everything else we’ve given them since The Enlightenment. You know. Soap, Schools. Scooters. Computers. Machines upon which to play their popular musical ditties. A certain entitlement has crept in; and a price must always be paid for that.

We could go on, and you may read the whole article for yourself, gentle reader, by clicking on the link. Does all the above suggest the bulk of humanity lacks the cognitive ability to live in a post industrial world? Or are they just festering with resentment because we stopped them from smoking and burning witches? We await your thoughts.

[1]https://theconversation.com/why-do-false-claims-that-vaccines-cause-autism-refuse-to-die-here-are-nine-reasons-246360?

#autism #vaccines #science #medicine #evidence #conspiracy #reason #emotion

hMPV: Shock Horror, or small pandemic, few hurt?

As all journalists know, there are two types of story. One is “HUGE SOMETHING SHOCK HORROR” the other is “small thing happens, Few hurt or injured” Which do you think catches more clicks/sells more papers/hooks more viewers? So it is with a certain caution that we approach the current media froth around the new hMPV virus that is clearly occupying the thoughts of so many members of the Daily Mail newsroom.

hMPV (human metapneumovirus) is a pretty standard seeming single strand RNA virus of the respiratory syncytial group.[1] It is one of many that surge in late winter in the northern hemisphere after people have been living close together for long weeks in the warm, but with regular trips out into the cold. It can be dangerous, there’s no doubt about it, especially to vulnerable groups such as young children the elderly and those with respiratory conditions. As it is not in our interests for any of our readers to die or lose family members, we urge you to take the sensible precautions enjoined by medical authorities.

What is interesting is the way it’s being reported, especially in western media. The two stories our researchers have put up, both from the Mail are actually pretty representative of all western media, regardless of political, social, racial, sartorial and gender affiliation. [2][3] The westerners are anxious for China to share more information and data on the current outbreak. The Chinese, with long memories of western interference, have their own concerns. Everyone recalls the bitter trading of accusations, suspicions and mistrusts during the COVID-19 pandemic, and are all about as calm and rational as a pair of nestling blackbirds in May.

And our thoughts ?Call us naive, but we long for a world where scientific and medical questions are treated as such, and the maximum co-operation is effected. Let the boys with their toys worry about things like who has most battleships later. Unfortunately it seems to be a human cognitive weakness to elide any possible phenomenon into a weapon to bash the enemy. We are not experts, but we suspect their may be bigger existential threats than this virus. Perhaps a more advanced species will one day make better distinctions.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_metapneumovirus

[2]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14254567/symptoms-HMPV-mystery-illness-surging-China-UK.html

[3]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14258029/china-details-hpmv-outbreak-UK-experts.html

#hmpv #virus #pandemic #china #west

AI-designed Antibodies: Not another medical breakthrough story?

A 200X photomicrograph magnification of a direct by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0

Oh no, not another medical breakthrough story on LSS? What happened to all those cocktails? What about all the economics and evolution stuff we used to get? Yet let us remind you of the words of our Founding Charter,* gentle readers: this started out as an antibiotics website, even more so when it was a post on Facebook. Of course when supplementary techniques like bacteriophages and improved antibodies came along, we welcomed those too. Which is why we have to give this new report from Nature Briefings AI helps design antibodies from scratch, front and centre on today’s blog. When you read this, you will understand why

For the first time, an artificial intelligence (AI) system has helped researchers to design completely new antibodies. Creating new versions of these immune proteins, which can be used as drugs, is usually a lengthy and costly process. An AI algorithm similar to those of the image-generating tools Midjourney and DALL·E was trained on thousands of real-world structures of antibodies attached to their target proteins. It then churned out thousands of new antibodies that recognize certain bacterial, viral or cancer-related targets. Although in laboratory tests only about one in 100 designs worked as hoped, biochemist and study co-author Joseph Watson says that “it feels like quite a landmark moment”.Nature | 4 min read
Reference: bioRxiv preprint (not peer reviewed)

Once again, we are at the start here. It’s still, at proof of concept stage, and awaits peer review. On the other hand, this is genuine landmark moment which people of the future will look back on. And whatever you are doing now as you read this, remember it. You were there on the day it happened.

a copy of the founding charter is still visible in the flowerbed round the side near the car park, the bit where all the smokers go. Actually, could we clean it up a bit?

Florida’s Health Battle heats up

As if the US State of Florida didn’t have enough problems, what with coastline erosion and all that, it has now become the epicentre of of a mighty battle over public health, and who calls the shots over what is, and is not, scientific evidence. [1] This is how the two sides square up, according to Richard Luscombe of The Guardian

In the Red corner: Dr Joseph Lapado [2] Florida’s Surgeon General, whose principle back is State Governor Ron Di Santis, who, as older readers will recall, is a former Next President of the United States of America. In the Blue corner, most of what passes for orthodox medical and scientific opinion. And, before you take sides, gentle readers, note this. Dr Lapado is no unqualified quack, but an eminently learned and trained medical doctor. Who, as an immigrant from Nigeria had no doubt to fight more than his fair share of of prejudice before finding his way to a well-deserved place at the top. The trouble is that some of his opinions, are to say the least, controversial. As our sources report, huge storms are now swirling around his recommendations in matters concerning masks, vaccines the use of various medical and public health literature sources, and certain treatment methods [3] The outcome of many is still unresolved, we hasten to add. But, with Big Ron in your corner, does any of this matter? Everyone has a right to their opinion, as they say; maybe Dr Lapado’s is as good as anyone else’s?

The trouble with opinions is that they get get tested in fact. Now an outbreak of measles among the unvaccinated burghers of Florida is testing Dr Lapado’s practices and beliefs to destruction. And it’s not just matters of Life and Death, it’s more important than that. Florida’s economy depends more than most on tourism and real estate, and the guardians of that economy are beginning to realise this, as Richard notes:

Come for the Sunshine, Leave With the Measles, opined the Orlando Sentinel; “Measles? So On-brand for Florida’s Descent Into the 1950s”, was the take of the Tampa Bay Times.

Only time will tell who is correct, Dr Lapado or his detractors. . But we close with this thought. For a long time now- ten, twenty years-everyone has loudly, aggressively proclaimed their right to hold opinions Fair enough; but they cannot all be right. The one that really was right all along only emerges with the tests of fact and experience. Until they come along, a little humility might be in order for all of us. Otherwise that test might be very painful indeed.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/03/florida-measles-outbreak-preventable

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Ladapo

[3]https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/floridas-surgeon-general-urges-cvs-to-stock-leeches

# joseph lapado #ron di santis #vaccination #measles #florida #public health #empiricism#measles