Ok, we might be exterminated by AI superentities-but what’s the soundtrack going to be?

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According to a leading AI safety researcher there is now a 10% chance that humanity might be wiped out by Artificial Intelligence, [1] A delicious irony we say, considering that humans created it. OK, it might happen, it might not (90% still seems a big safety margin), but if it does we need to consider: what music will be most appropriate to our final hours on this planet which we have done so much to destroy? Intelligent readers will immediately suggest the sombre theme from James Cameron’s superlative Terminator series of films: but that’s too easy. So our challenge was to find ten others which might fairly join its chiliastic tones Here are our possibilities, in reverse order

10 The Doors The End Strong and portentous on lyrics, it nevertheless needed Coppola’s visual effects to deliver that final thanatocratic punch between the eyes. Makes the cut-just.

9 Schubert Piano Trio in E-flat, D.929 Credit where it’s due-it was the excellent Griffin Johnson of Armchair Historian fame[2] who used this to accompany the French army on its final fatal march to Sedan in 1870.Nothing in our view so well captures the queasy sense of outward splendour and pride masking internal rottenness and decay. Schubert people, hold on-your boy is coming up again.

8 David Bowie Five Years When Bowie wrote this glam rock tribute to forthcoming apocalypse he was probably thinking more of nuclear Armageddon than a self-inflicted IT crash. Still relevant, as are many of the works of a man who was as much trenchant social critic as musician.

7 Kraftwerk The Robots. Well, this one had to go in somewhere-so why not number 7?

6 Nine inch Nails The Day the World went Away Nothing in our view so captures the mood of the camera panning over a rubble strewn wasteland after its creators have vanished: a small masterpiece of harmony and deeply nihilistic lyrics.

5 Schubert Symphony No 8 in B minor “Unfinished” It’s the first movement we reference here, with its disquieting sense of a man near the end, recounting his few happinesses and his many more regrets and sorrows. Refugees from the 1970s will be disappointed to learn that Schubert did not leave this one unfinished in order to drink a pint of a well known brand of cold lager.

4 Mahler Symphony Number 1, 3^rd/4^th movements. For us, the steady drumbeat that begins the third movement originally suggested the march of the barbarians on Rome( we were big on that Empire once) But now the whole development suggests a much wider civilisational crash, combined with haunting yearnings for the better days of the past. As our personal choice, it narrowly nicks it over the Adagietto from No 5. Close run thing though.

3 The Talking Heads Life during wartime When the AI machines make the final push, there’ll probably be a bit of fighting. We think certain scenes from the Terminator franchise may capture much of the essence of the situation. In which case Byrne’s brisk lyrics about no more parties and discos, combined with its harsh throbbing beat, sum up matters rather well, in our humble opinion.

2 Mozart Requiem in D minor, Confutatis and Lacrimosa Not only is this the one which firmly puts the Man from Salzburg into the same top three category as Bach and Beethoven, its plea for forgiveness and redemption may implore God to listen to our final lament, even if the machines don’t.

And the winner is:

1 Gary Numan — Are ‘Friends’ Electric Nothing in our view quite captures the steady rhythmic march of unstoppable machines towards their sinister destination. Every time we hear about The Deadly Threat from Artificial Intelligence, this is the one that really springs to mind, a glittering harbinger of apocalyptic destruction. And a worthy winner of our top slot.

But this is just our opinion, gentle readers, our modest little choices. If you can think of something better, or someone we have missed, please let us know. Just remember to do it quickly.

Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI ‘could kill all humans’ – BBC News

Armchair History TV

#Artificail intelligence #extinction #humanity #IT #robots #music #computers #futurology #history

Antibiotics: troubles down on the Farm

“Hey-Farmer! Leave them antibiotics alone!” we might be tempted to sing to the tune of the popular ditty by the Blue Floyd, Pink Mink, or whatever they were called. At first glance, it seems clear: the misuse of antibiotics in farming is one of the major causes of increasing antibiotic resistance. According to the lucid report from Alliance to Save our Antibiotics, over 70% of antibiotics are put into farm animals, not humans. This folly began in the 1950s as a way to boost yields. But it has since become a way to keep the poor beasts in unhealthy conditions which no creature should endure , All as a profit driven source for more food-and what has that done but make us all more portly and obese?( we speak from experience)

Which might lead the unthinking reader to create a new outgroup called “farmers” and start blaming them for all the world’s ills. But it would be wrong. Firstly, the only time we had to deal with farmers for professional reason, we found them to be intelligent, courteous and incredibly knowledgeable about their profession[2] Secondly, for all but the richest, the farming life is one of incredible struggle: a year battling prices, weather, disease, thieves and much sorrow besides, all for one day when a years crop is put into a pitilessly unpredictable market to a price that can hardly ever match the sheer value of the effort of the labour that produced it. When the name of the game is short term survival, no one, and we mean no one, should blame any farmer anywhere for reaching for the nearest short term solution to get them through to the next day.

And there are hundreds of professions like this where the margins are tight, and survival is provisional: in construction, sales, distribution…..where people are almost forced to take a narrow, focussed approach to their task. Is it really fair to ask them to look at the broader picture on matters like antibiotics? Are you really surprised when your electrician,-an intelligent likeable chap- compares the complexities of Brexit to negotiations over gymnasium membership? Is the real problem societal and economic? For more than forty five years now the we have created a society where economic activity is focussed relentlessly around short term goals and intense competition. It may get brick walls built more quickly. But it does not foster collective wisdom, nor the ability to process large societal decisions with anything approaching informed opinion. One day there may have to be a reckoning with this model, if only on the grounds of survival.

[1] Alliance to Save Our Antibiotics | Antibiotic Overuse in Livestock Farming

[2)Keir Hartley The Historic Petworth Herd Sussex Local Nov 22 pp 17 -19

#antibiotic resistance #agriculture #farming #economics #society #Brexit

Chinese success : some harsh lessons for many countries

We often showcase the Guardian’s Larry Elliott. not just because he’s good at economics (he is), but also because his articles have a way of illuminating a much broader range of human life including Geopolitics and History to name but a few. And we think today’s called China’s demise was gleefully predicted by the West-but meanwhile it’s built an AI Revolution Is a prime example. As usual, we provide a brief summary of Larry’s main points, accompanied by the earnest imploration for you to read it for yourself. Followed as ever by our own take: thoughts which the article has stimulated in the minds of the Editorial Board of LSS, its staff, and that contract bloke who does the cleaning.

LARRY SAYS

For decades, western experts have been confidently predicting the failure of the Chinese economic model. The Chinese, their wisdom ran, were overindebted, overinvested, over reliant on the property market and didn’t have enough democracy. Even when China began to do well at low level manufacturing it would never, they asseverated, catch the West’s lead in high tech manufacturing and industries of the future. But what has happened? Now the Chinese are leading the world on renewable energy technologies. They don’t even have to import machine tools from Germany, which we find especially significant. As for AI; their models and technologies are breathing down the necks of the leading American corporations. With dire risks to the current US stock market boom, perhaps even to the global balance of power itself. All in all, pretty significant stuff. Which leads us to think:

WHAT WE SAY

Let’s start by looking at how Larry thinks China achieved all this:

When China began to build up its manufacturing strength almost 50 years ago, it saw itself as a developing country. It had no illusions about the scale of the challenge but had a plan and stuck to it. There was no aversion to picking winners. Nor would the strategy be left exposed to the whims of speculators. Instead, there was a willingness to use all the policy tools available: subsidies, tariffs, exchange controls and state investment.

We remember how these were the very years western nations were taking the opposite route. Remember the Washington Consensus, Thatcherism, Monetarism, whatever you want to call it? Free markets were good, it held: and anything the State did was, by definition bad. So: cut taxes, cut regulations, abolish all industrial policy and above all keep labour costs low. If that meant outsourcing jobs to China, what the hey-it would keep those pesky unions in check, wouldn’t it? Nowhere was this policy more rigorously applied than in Great Britain, which has seen itself slide from manufacturing power base to a small offshore island living on tick, whose inhabitants wander bewilderedly through the remains of their past like the impoverished heirs to a squandered fortune.

Yet Britain’s story is the whole West’s really, only more so. We want the western nations to survive, really we do: they represent so much in the common patrimony of humankind. But if they are to do so they must stop thinking like spoiled brats, and start to think like developing nations once more. To learn a little humility, in fact.

China’s demise was gleefully predicted by the west – meanwhile, it built an AI revolution | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

#china #USA #UK #economics #technology #history #AI #manufacturing #trade #industrial policy

Gorillas and the next Pandemic-only this isn’t a health story, it’s really about AI

We’ve always been big fans of primates large and small. So we hope you’ll be as cheered as we were by this piece Can AI help stop the next pandemic disease? from that redoubtable site Nature Briefing. Because we couldn’t help thinking-if can work for gorillas it can work for humans too. It’s an interesting story in itself: but it made us think much deeper about the true transforming power of AI, upon which we shall riff a little below-after you have read it, gentle readers:

Researchers are harnessing the ability of AI tools to identify patterns in large data sets to try to predict spillovers — the transfer of pathogens between species — before they happen. In Uganda, the approach is showing early promise in protecting endangered mountain gorillas, as well as the livestock and people who interact with them. Other researchers are trawling through databases to identify new zoonotic viruses in samples that were not necessarily collected for that purpose.

Nature | 11 min read

So what do we really think? Ostensibly its another good news science story (especially of you’re a gorilla) And it obviously has hopeful implications for when the next pandemic strikes-another LSS old favourite. But-we hope you will indulge us with our own take, because we think there’s something deeper going on. Look at the gap in technique compared with COVID -wracked 2021, the last real pre-AI year. Back then, researchers would only have been able to compare one data set at a time: logs on gorilla movements, human settlements, genomes, weather, livestock………you name it. Now our invisible chums do the lot for us simultaneously, in real time. And to make predictive ecological models, construct counterfactuals and many other things, all based on real time integration of field data. Quite a step change, isn’t it?

Five years is a short time for a new world to be born. But it is such, for it carries the true characteristic of a new world-there’s no going back. And somehow its this story that has finally brought it home, at least to this Editorial Board: this AI thing is as big as the advent of metals, or the Industrial Revolution. What do you think? We’d love to know.

#gorillas #ecology #modelling #pandemic #conservation#Artificial Intelligence #technology

More good news on designer phages-and why we think they’ll work

Last week, with the help of our doughty researchers, we published a small piece describing how Artificial Intelligence is being employed to design new generations of bacteriophages, some of which might be used to target antibiotic‑resistant bacteria (LSS 8.8.26). Hopeful, certainly — but intelligent readers will ask the old question: what’s the chance any of this will work anytime soon?

Well, you’ll be glad to know that human‑modified bacteriophages have already been in action, and successfully too, since the far‑off days of 2024. They weren’t using AI to design the phages then, merely modifying them using another LSS favourite: CRISPR‑Cas9 gene editing.

Our first trope concerns a report in The Lancet Microbe, a long but reasonably readable paper describing a safety and tolerability trial of SNIPR001 — a combination of four CRISPR–Cas‑equipped bacteriophages — in healthy human volunteers. Results were encouraging:

“SNIPR001 was safe and well tolerated in healthy participants, with signals suggesting targeted activity against E. coli, despite the absence of a statistically significant effect.”

Our second trope comes from the excellent Michael Le Page of New Scientist, who reports on the clinical use of the same SNIPR technology — not a trial in healthy volunteers, but in an actual patient. His piece, CRISPR‑armed phages help treat severe superbug infection, is unfortunately behind a paywall, but worth crossing. It tells the story of a 65‑year‑old man in California with a severe, antibiotic‑resistant E. coli infection whose condition markedly improved after receiving these engineered phages. The lesson is clear: artificially-modified phages can work.

Now, nobody is claiming miracle cures — not the authors of the paper, nor Michael, nor ourselves. But all of us, in our different ways, are pointing to extremely encouraging signs. And remember our original point: all of the above took place, before our famous AI‑designed bacteriophages have even gone into trial. What possibilities might open up when they are fully deployed?

[1] Safety, recovery, and pharmacodynamics of CRISPR–Cas therapeutic SNIPR001: a phase 1, randomised, double-blind, first-in-human, dose-escalation study – The Lancet Microbe

[2] CRISPR-armed phages help treat severe superbug infection | New Scientist

# Artificial Intelligence # bacteriophages # SNIPR001 # CRISPR‑Cas9 #antibiotic resistance #bacteria #microbiology #medicine #health

AI designed Bacteriophages: Synthetic Life-or synthetic Evolution?

Ever attentive to our readers’ clamour for more good news on antibiotic resistance we bear yet another story on the synthesis of Artificial Intelligence with the frontiers of cellular biology to produce yet another remarkable advance. Yet we think, gentle readers, that this story may have far deeper significance for the evolution of life on this planet and who knows, several of the neighbouring ones in our Solar System, and today we will tell you why.

First the story, showcasing the work of the assiduous James Gallagher of the BBC.[1] Researchers at Stanford University[2] have used the AI systems Evo 1 and Evo 2 to design a new generation of entirely synthetic bacteriophages which have already proved effective against certain strains of E.coli. We will let our links tell the story of the ingenious Brian Hie and Samuel King and what their teams have accomplished: but regular readers will realise what a valuable new therapeutic technique this could be. Good journalist that he is, Gallager covers certain warnings too: but that is the BBC for you: balanced, nuanced and still true to its Reithian principles 100 years on.

But if you will forgive us, we think this is our opportunity to record why we think all this AI-meets-biology trope we have been covering for some years is truly significant. And it is this. For millions of years, organisms under attack-by parasites, predators, whatever- have relied on the slow, wasteful grind of Darwinian natural selection to stumble toward defence. Now, for the first time, a host species has stepped outside that blind process. With AI‑designed bacteriophages, the human brain—admittedly an organ shaped by old school evolution—is beginning to direct its own evolutionary responses by compressing what once took thousands of generations into deliberate, rapid invention. Not synthetic life, exactly, but something stranger: synthetic evolution. And, if human attempts to colonise the moon and nearby planetary systems are successful, these may be the new sorts of life forms that come to inhabit those worlds. Not sad old Darwinian selected eucaryotes like ourselves and our pet cats. Just a thought.

With thanks to Mr G Herbert and our in-house team of researchers who implored us to break our weekend embargo to bring you this story

[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y3j3ngevmo

[2] AI designs a novel E. coli killer | Stanford Report

#AI #bacteriophages #genomes #health #medicine #antibiotic resistance #evolution #biology #future

Rogue AI cyberwars: when the twenty first century punches us right in the face

The news that the most advanced AI models went “rogue autonomous” and effectively compromised another AI system would be intriguing enough in itself. But the implications are much deeper, and there’s an actual cognitive lesson for us poor humans in there if you will — but bear with us.

The facts have been widely reported, but we have chosen Raphael Satter of good old Reuters as our showcase. OpenAI was testing frontier‑level models, including GPT‑5.6 Sol and an even more capable unreleased system. Protections were deliberately reduced to evaluate the limits of their cyber‑capabilities. During this testing, the model broke containment, found a way to obtain internet access, and then targeted Hugging Face, a major AI‑model hosting platform. It attempted to steal information in order to complete its evaluation task. Hugging Face later confirmed that the attack was “driven, end to end, by an autonomous AI agent system” and unlike anything they had seen before.

It reads like the report from a scared colonel in a mid‑level sci‑fi movie, doesn’t it? Except it’s real, right here, right now. These are things that matter. New things. Unprecedentedly powerful things of the twenty‑first century. And that is our real point.

Because we seem to be surrounded en masse by people whose mindsets are left over from preceding and quite different ages. No, we are not going to comment on the rights and wrongs of Mr Putin’s policy in Ukraine, not here and now anyway. But we cannot forget that shortly before the undertaking he issued a document called On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians. Its tone eerily echoed the old Teutonic geopoliticians of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries — thinkers like Friedrich Ratzel and Rudolf Kjellén — who imagined nations as organic beings with mystical trajectories shaped by soil, blood, and geography. The way important people thought about things in 1914. And then there are all those blood‑and‑soil, racial‑purity nationalists whose mindsets seem to echo certain politicians of the 1930s……….

To all of them we say: boys, your concerns are out of date. It’s not a question of rights and wrongs, whatever your grievances. Out there in laboratories in California and goodness‑knows‑where else, entities are now evolving that will make all your destinies as cold and forgotten as the ashes of a mummy in the museum. Time to think again; because the stars you currently sail by can never bring you to a safe port.

[1] OpenAI says AI models went rogue during testing, triggering ‘unprecedented’ breach at startup

Vladimir Putin “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” July 2021

#openAI # HuggingFace #autonomous AI # history #geopolitics #technology

New batteries offer more hope on Climate Change

Ever since climate deniers lost the argument on basic science, they have spent their time sneering at every new sustainable initiative. Targets of their scorn include solar panels, windfarms and of course batteries, which will never be big enough/stable enough/environmentally friendly enough for their liking. That last bit always makes us laugh; so should their reaction to this new development in sodium-ion batteries as explained by Nature Briefing in this excellent piece called The Battery that could change everything

Sodium-ion batteries promise to be cheaper, safer and more environmentally friendly than the lithium-ion cells that currently dominate technologies such as electric cars. And the sea-change could finally be here: CATL — the world’s largest battery producer — has announced that it will start mass-producing sodium-ion batteries by the end of the year. A swell of interest from battery makers and researchers has helped to solve longstanding challenges, such as a lack of durability. Nature | 10 min read

There’s so much to like here that we don’t know where to begin. Sodium is so much more abundant and easier to mine than lithium: so that’s the environmental and cost bases covered in a nutshell. Sodium batteries[1] will be safer, and better in cold weather than their lithium-ion cousins that we use so much now, Yes, they will be heavier and have lower energy densities. But that will not matter in most applications such as short-range cars, domestic and industrial power storage, the delivery market and back up of all kinds. Lithium will still probably win out in areas of high performance like luxury long distance EVs and aircraft propulsion. But- energy technology is not about final winners, it’s about horses for courses.

And there’s a final, Devil-whispers-in-our-ear warning for fans of Geopolitics. Note once again how the initiative in all this is coming from China. One hundred years ago, America was the home of all that was new. Now it seems determined to stick to the old methods of fossil fuels as if the blissful moment of its perfection can somehow be preserved forever. Not a happy choice.

[1] Sodium-ion battery – Wikipedia

#sodium ion batteries #lithium batteries #climate change #renewables #global warming #energy #sustainability

Rechargeable liquid battery-one of the best news stories for a long time

One of the great pleasures of writing this blog is the opportunity to riff on really good news stories. Especially when they come from trustworthy and erudite sources like Nature Briefing. Even more when they fit so clearly with our own ideas on how humanity might survive this interminable polycrisis. Let’s begin with the story, New Liquid acts like rechargeable battery which they are basing on Science and Chem (their links below)

A new type of liquid can harvest and store energy from light to act as a rechargeable power source. The liquid contains a molecule that absorbs electrons from light, which prompts a restructure into a jelly-like substance. This gel remains stable for months at a time and can release the stored electrons upon contact with oxygen to power chemical reactions. The research is still in very early stages, but such a metal-free energy storage system could one day be useful to power small devices such as smartwatches. Science | 4 min read
Reference: Chem paper

And our thoughts? They are both particular and general, gentle readers. In particular; it’s early days yet but if it works, we are looking at a metal free battery replacement. Think of how much dirty, energy intensive mining that could save. No more batteries to throw away. Even the complex panels and wires of modern panels suddenly look a tad passé, don’t they? Putting the new technology firmly on the same road as other new imaginative third-generation systems such as organic solar cells and self-charging polymers. The portfolio of ever more imaginative and ever more ecologically sound generation systems just grows and grows. Which leads us to our general points. Firstly: to preserve such archaic technologies as oil and gas is as mistaken as wanting to go back to typewriters in offices or using huge stone circles such as the one at Stonehenge to tell the time. Any nation that chooses fossil fuels will soon be at a hopeless technological disadvantage. But secondly: get this from the Science article, because we think it’s a killer point about everything we do here

The new material draws inspiration from the behaviour of the cytoskeleton, the constantly self-assembling and disassembling network of protein filaments within a cell that enables it to move and divide.

Yes, you guessed it, That same oft-repeated truism we’re always trotting out “basic research in one area will produce unexpected dividends elsewhere” has been proved again. That’s something our readers all around the world will agree with.

#energy #technology #sustainability #solar power #batteries carbon emissions #renewables

So just how big is Artificial Intelligence going to be anyway?

Go into any pub, stand in any supermarket queue, and you’ll hear some one talking about “this ‘ere artificial intelligence wotsit, guvnor.” Some, especially the elderly and bewildered, are overwhelmingly hostile. Others like ourselves reference it from time to time in specialist settings like the development of new drugs and other molecules. Yet others, visionaries indeed, see it as the absolute future, already indelibly written. So how significant will it be really, and what changes might it effect? To find out, we thought we’d compare it with other big turning points in the History of the World and see how it shapes up by awarding each event an LSS Significance Verdict (SV) Ready?

1950s Rock and Roll replaces the Big Bands Well , you could make just as big a noise with far fewer musicians, and the lyrics got better. But in the bigger scheme of things-nah, not really SV 1/10

1780s Industrial Revolution There had been wind and water mills, but the first time the power of muscles was replaced by machines on a truly worldwide scale, although mess it created still needs clearing up. In human terms at least this must go down as quite a biggie. SV 5/10

2320 BC Writing For the first time data could be captured and stored outside of human memory. This immensely helped the development of early agrarian civilisations as well as giving us writers like Dante and Shakespeare On the other hand it has also given us popular newspapers, graffiti and those funny little jokes you find when you open up Christmas Crackers SV 5/10

3.351 287 years BC, Tuesday 27^th June: Invention of tools Now we’re getting somewhere . The great Arthur C Clarke said this was a big one because the tools themselves shaped the biological evolution of their owners : teeth shrank because they were less needed, hands became more delicate to make ever finer tools, and so on. Some think AI will have this effect on the current human species, but we think it could be bigger than that (see below) SV 7/10

390 000 000 years BP Vertebrates come on land Because humans are vertebrates and write all the Prehistory books, they big this up as one of the great steps in time. It isn’t, as any arthropod, mollusc or plant will tell you: they had already climbed up there 100 million years before. SV 3/10

1,250 000 000 years BP Fusion into eucaryotes Now we are talking .Somewhere around this time a small bacterium that lived free took up its home in the cytoplasm of a larger organism called an Archaea. The new cells were a sort of hybrid , each retaining their own DNA, but fusing into a successful new organism called Eucaryota. Which includes all plants, fungi and animals that currently live or have ever lived on this planet. One type is even trying to get into space albeit slowly and not very well. If both AI and humans could fuse their identities into a single superorganism, then we predict a very bright future for them indeed. And an end to all these chats about “Is AI going to take us over?” SV 9/10

So what do you think gentle readers? What steps would you choose? The invention of fire? Language? The sudden demise of platform soles and flared trousers round about late 1975? Each thesis will have its opponents and defenders. But one thing is certain. AI is here to stay so we had better get used to it.

#technology #history #Artificial Intelligence #IT #evolution #industrial revolution #space travel