Poor old Economists! Back before the financial crash they seemed to run the world. They certainly seemed to staff half of all the Banks, Governments, Political parties and NGOs across most of it. Peace and order are what you want, they told us. Free markets, the lowest possible taxes, the lowest possible barriers to the free flow of goods, capital and movement. In this they were essentially following the doctrines of Adam Smith whose Wealth of Nations [1]was the founding principle of their Science. And rightly so: because it all seemed like pretty good advice at the time, didn’t it?
Trouble came on two fronts. The first is causal. The really profound shifts in human wealth are created by new discoveries in Science and Technology. (LSS passim) At the very time that Smith was writing his masterwork, technologists like James Watt were creating new machines of such fundamental power that they absolutely transformed the wealth of the nations that adopted them. However much you argue about taxes, multipliers and currency reserves, none of this can hold a candle to the economic leap unleashed by Maxwell’s equations or the work of Watson and Crick in Biotechnolgy. Goal down to the economists. Even worse these days: no one is listening to them. Intellectually, their prescription of how to get to a better life is impeccable. But in a world inhabited by Homo sapiens, the ethnic identity card will always trump the economic prosperity one. It’s a point we have often made here: and the evidence for it has been overwhelming ever since 2016. Are the poor practitioners of the “dismal science” doomed like so many Cassandras [2] to ever prophesy the truth-and be for ever ignored? Economists nil, Humanity 2 : game over?
But before we really go on to call for the abolition of a profession which has actually nurtured some of the brightest minds in History (Ricado, Keynes, Hayek, Stiglitz………) remember this. The technological changes we talked about take many years, decades even, to be fully adopted. Meanwhile, there’s still and economy to run, so you are going to need a few experts who can tell you what is happening here and now. Who can provide a reality check tell you that adopting ethno-nationalist and populist policies are never good for the long term health of an economy, however good they feel at the time. If you want some detail, this report contains abundant evidence[3] We prefer to offer the example of that Uber ethno nationalist Adolf Hitler: his policies didn’t exactly lead to prosperity much for anyone, neither at home nor abroad, did they? Perhaps we really need more economist not less. Especially in countries which are now adopting ethne nationalist solutions with relentless enthusiasm
[1] Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Edited by R. H. Campbell, A. S. Skinner & W. B. Todd. Liberty Fund, Indianapolis. ISBN: 978-0865970069 (two‑volume set).
[2] Aeschylus The Oresteian Trilogy Penguin 1959
[3]Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph. “Populist Leaders and the Economy.” American Economic Review 113(12) (2023): 3249–88. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20202045.
#economics #populism #science #technology #finance #wealh #identity politics #adolf Hitler #tariffs #immigration #history
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