It’s an interconnected world, or: How we learned to stop worrying and love Donald Trump

President Trump Postlaunch Remarks (NHQ202005300037) by NASA HQ PHOTO is licensed under CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0

Two days out from the US Presidential Election. For weeks now, our anxiety has been growing. Are they really going to elect That Man? Again? After all he did to their security, alliances, economy, health? Has Democracy itself failed? The mere fact he has got so far suggests Democracy is very, very poor at solving its problems.

And then the lightbulb moment saved us. We were listening to a BBC piece on Radio 4 about the attempts of various UK Governments to control illegal immigration. Onto the show they tipped an expert who warned “any attempt to control the people smuggler gangs will fail, because their leaders live mostly in the Middle East.” In other words people smuggling is a multinational business. Like IT, oil, fashion, fast food, transport, automotive manufacture. Some of these many giant businesses operate within the law(most of the time, anyway) Some like drug dealers and people smugglers tend stay outside it. But the economic and technological forces driving them are the same. The world is a very small place thanks to modern technology, and the rules of supply and demand are infallible. Economies of scale evolve that are far beyond the jurisdictions of nation states.

Which brings us back to the US elections. The people who will (probably) elect Donald Trump are not bad, mad or stupid. But they are frightened and bewildered. Because the very concept through which they view the world (the nation state) is now utterly inadequate to contend with the problems we face. Things like global warming, pandemics and the mass migrations of people are so obviously beyond the competence of even the largest national entities as to make their individual policies irrelevant. Suddenly a vote for a President, Prime Minister or whatever becomes like gripping the gear lever on a failing car. Whatever you do, it suddenly makes little difference. In that sense, the rise of Donald Trump is a sure and infallible signal of the utter failure of national politics everywhere. It states more clearly than anything that the time has come to look long and hard for an alternative. And, as that truth, it should be welcomed.

#donald trump #us elections #global warming #nation state #world government

If Keir Starmer wants to grow the UK economy, he needs to play the Research

Keir Starmer’s Labour Party came to power on a pledge to clear up Britain’s economic mess and, above all other things, create growth. But how to do it? It is a question that has bedevilled British Governments since the country first began to fall behind in the late Victorian era. And no amount of reforming government has ever halted the inexorable decline, which feels supporting like a football team slowly slipping down the leagues. Remember Manchester United?

Yet how did Britain first rise to inordinate wealth and power in the Georgian period.?(let’s leave the constitution for another day) The answer is that, by luck or design, Britain took full advantage of the scientific and intellectual advances of the Enlightenment, more so than any other country. [1]The result was the Industrial Revolution, which provided an absolute step change in human productive capacity. Sadly for Britain, other countries quickly learned the lesson, better and more thoroughly than the British pioneers. And here we are today.

Yet there may be a way out of this trap. We have long tried to sing the praises of research and development as the real drivers of economic growth. But candidly admit-we’ve struggled. Now a most erudite yet readable article from the Guardian by Andre Gein and Nancy Rothwell makes the case with levels of data back up we could never match [2] Get this for a killer quote:

It is recognised as having a much higher rate of return than average for capital investment across government spending lines (every £1 of Higher Education Innovation Fund investment at research intensive universities delivers £12 to the economy).

Starmer and Reeves should ignore the groans of the terminally old and selfish. Real patriotism would embrace tax rises, if these are then invested in the long term future of our universities, And the network of schools that feed them of course. It’s time to play a big card, and this is a gambit that will work.

[1]Enlightenment Roy Porter Allen Lane 2000

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/26/scientific-research-needs-robust-government-backing-not-treasury-penny-pinching

#universities #research and development #economics #industrial revolution #britain #enlightenment

UK Riots: is Capitalism eating itself by the tail?

The jury’s been out on the UK summer riots. But now it’s back. And the verdict is grim. The causes are clear, and demonstrable. Most of the rioters were not outside agitators. They were locals. And the places local to them are rotten with deprivation, bad health and unemployment. The findings are laid out for all to see in this pooled report from Guardian writers. [1] Their findings make grim reading for everyone, of whatever political persuasion. But sackcloth and ashes most of all are reserved for those who believe the antique slogans about untrammelled free markets, economic liberalisation, risk takers and free movement of goods and people being best for society.

Because what they forgot to tell us was that there are far more losers than winners in such a set-up. That whole communities would whither away into stagnation and despair. In such circumstances people do not make rational, considered judgements. They just get angry and resentful. Is it so surprising some of them riot? A free market purist would argue that nothing is more capitalist than immigration. Who takes more risks than an immigrant, by tearing up their roots and starting again in a new country? But clearly the natives don’t take such an objective view. Their riots are a sign of something much deeper.

Across the world, a massive reaction to the free movement of people has begun. Naturally, it extends to goods and services, as trade tariffs rise again, and local sourcing is everywhere preferred. Powerful demographic forces are making sure that free movement, markets and migration are coming to an end. The very forces unleashed by liberalism have ensured their own demise.

We at LSS do not believe that communism or faith-based economics are the answer. This is a Whig website, not a socialist one. We think the answer lies in a different model of Capitalism, In the next blog or two we will make suggestions as to what these may look like. These suggestions will be tentative, and humble. But unless we learn to think in different ways, and soon, even the educated will end up joining the others in final despair.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/sep/25/local-left-behind-prey-to-populist-politics-data-2024-uk-rioters

#economics #politics #racism #milton friedman #jm keynes #uk riots #populism

Trump Assassination Attempt-Is this another John Brown moment?

The American Civil War which began in 1861 did not come out of nowhere. Tensions between the two sides had been growing for almost four decades. Yet the war was not inevitable. History buffs will recall the efforts of moderates on both sides to pull the extremists back. Things like the Nullification Crisis, the Wilmott Proviso, the Missouri Compromise, now either despised or forgotten, delayed the bloodshed or tried valiantly to buy time to think again. What tipped the balance and allowed the hotheads to say “we were right all along” was John Brown and his terrorists’ raid on the Harpers Ferry Federal Arsenal 0n 16 October 1859. Read this from Hugh Brogan’s Pelican History of the United States [1]

“…the impression made on the South was too deep. Here it was at last, the nightmare come true. The abolitionist appeal to the slaves to rebel, now naked and apparent, in spite of the endless disclaimers of Northern Politicians, of Southern Moderates. The fire-eaters instantly took command.

From John Brown onward, the march to war began.

That there were moderates on both sides in contemporary America, including the Republican Party, we had no doubt, right up until today. But now expect the MAGA extremists to unleash a firestorm of social media. Blaming Biden; blaming the Democrats, blaming the Deep State, the Secret Service, CNN, the New York Times…..anyone. That there were reasonable people, who believe that Statecraft is to address several issues at once, will be forgotten. As in 1860, the lines between those who honestly believe that Race and its attendant hierarches are the most important matters in human affairs, and those who honestly do not, are firmly drawn. If we are wrong, you may laugh at us.

But if we are right, the future is dark indeed. Expect a closely contested Presidential Election. with repeated outbreaks of lethal violence. And that neither side honestly accepts the result. The Constitution of the United States is thereby vitiated. There will then be a short descent into a bloody and protracted Civil War. The United States will cease to exist as a meaningful power. Any political entities which emerge in its former territories will be dark and authoritarian, whether of Right or Left. China and its allies and satellites will become the dominant force in world affairs. They will quickly buy the strongmen and media allies to snuff out the last vestiges of freedom in the small nations of Europe , Canada and the others. And Thomas Matthew Crooks was the man who finally tipped the whole thing into motion. May his soul be cursed in Hell forever.

[1] Hugh Brogan The Pelican History of the United States of America Penguin 1985 pp 317 et seq

[2]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cljy6yz1j6gt?post=asset%3A7a474ec3-efd2-4dac-9721-2e38d573c1f9

thomas matthew crooks #john brown #harpers ferry #butler, pa #US Civil War ~donald Trump #MAGA

UK Election: we predict a narrow win for Labour

_{Note for overseas readers:The UK election will be decided in a single day, July 4th. 650 Parliamentary constituencies will each elect a single MP on a one-adult, one vote system. Hence 326 seats are enough to ensure a simple majority in the new Parliament}.

Ok, this is a shot in the dark. But we have always been suspicious of opinion polls (we’ll explain why below) If you have been following the UK general election, and tracking the polls, you might be forgiven for thinking this election will result in a very large majority for the Labour Party. [1] as this link and story from the Guardian might suggest. This is why we think that those predictions are wildly inaccurate

1 The Labour lead has been shrinking If you look at link one in this post you’ll see it peaked just after the disastrous Premiership of Liz Truss. Whatever other mistakes the Tories have made, she has been carefully kept out of the campaign by both the Party and mainstream media, which is largely Tory owned and dominated. Memories have faded: and Liz’s days as recruiting sergeant for the Left are well and truly over

2 Shy Tories If you were an ordinary decent person, with a strong awareness of the last 14 years, would you admit to being a Tory, especially of some earnest faced young pollster is bearing down on you with a tablet computer? Perhaps not, in public. But old loyalties flood strong and hard, particularly in the privacy of the polling booth. England (not Scotland nor Wales) is a deeply Conservative country, where strong memories of Empire linger in many corners. Don’t be surprised for a strong showing from this quarter, as happened in 1992.

3 Don’t know/undecided Much as above, especially for the cultural reasons we have alluded to. Even if this group break several ways, it’s still quite a reservoir of Tory votes

4 Returning Reformers /Shy Reformers Despite an early strong showing by Nigel and the boys, there are signs that their vote is fading. This time. It’s possible that at the last moment loyalty to the Squire and the traditional hierarchy will cause many to cast their lot in with the Tories, rather than let in a Labour government. However, if the Reform vote does hold up, it may well bite deep into Labour [2]

5 The Tory Media Newspapers like the Mail and the Sun do not circulate as well as they used to. Gone are the days when the could simply whistle up 150 Tory seats. But the right wing news ecology, incredibly well-oiled and funded, has simply shifted to social media and outlets like GB News. The last few days have witnessed a hysterical and well co-ordinated attack on Starmer and all things Labour. Expect this to sway more than a few of the voters in the groups above.

So, perhaps a bit unscientifically, with one finger in the wind we predict

Labour 350 Conservative 208 Lib Dem 20 SNP 40 DUP 7 Sinn Fein 9 Reform 3 Plaid Cymru 2 SDLP 1 Other/Speaker 10

By Friday morning, you will know.

And this is our firm and unshakeable pledge: if we are wrong to any substantial degree , we will buy the office cat a tin of the finest tuna, to dispose of as he wishes

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jul/02/uk-general-election-opinion-polls-tracker-latest-labour-tories-2024
[2]ttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/labour-expects-surge-of-shy-reform-voters-in-some-northern-and-midlands-seats

#general election #united kingdom #parliament #opinion polls #shy tory

Time to Tax the Billionaires?

Imagine that every country was so prosperous that there was little need for migration. That the climate crisis was fixed, with wind turbines and electric cars in every land you visited. New drugs for every conceivable illness were not just freely available, but there were active substitutes for each of them waiting in laboratories. There were no hungry children at all, and everyone in the world had an old age pension. Would about $250 billion* a year about cover it?

That’s what could be obtained if there was a single world effort to fairly tax the planet’s 3000 or so billionaires, according to a report by Gabriel Zuchman, helpfully written up for us by Larry Elliott of the Guardian [1] At the moment this gilded class pays about 0.3% of their income in tax, which compared to most of us is nugatory indeed. But we’ll let Larry’s article cover the details-(you must read it), and instead riff on a theme of our own. The case for tax is not moral, nor Marxist nor religious, nor based on Natural Justice . It’s actually historical, and its about survival

The 18th century, or Enlightenment, or whatever, was full of learned economists who preached the gospel of lower taxes as the source of the wealth of their nations. The country that really put this in to practice was Imperial China, then the world’s largest economy. But the western barbarians-nations like England, Portugal and so on, kept their taxes high, despite all the domestic preaching. The result? Huge fleets and armies, able to dismember poor China’s attenuated defences, and open them to the enlightened benefits of trade. The chief result of which was a mass opium addiction. The moral? You need taxes if you are going to survive. remember that next time you read a bit of propaganda from a billionaire think tank or news outlet.

*in these pages billion=10⁹

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/jun/25/international-scheme-to-tax-billionaires-wealth-technically-feasible-study-finds

#china #opium war #tax #billionaire #G20 #Gabriel Zuchman

Why the UK has ended up like Manchester United

Followers of football often discuss the fate of Manchester United FC. A once hugely-successful club, awash with money that is now desperately underperforming, despite an endless stream of new mangers and fresh starts. Some compare it with the fate of Rome (the Empire of that name, not the football club). But there may be an another comparison, more recent and much closer.

Why is the UK so desperately underperforming? Why is the state of its mental health so very poor, when compared to other countries? Why have peoples hopes and expectations stagnated? Why is the health service so bad? Housing so squalid and insecure for so many? Especially as all the terrible social and economic problems were tackled so ably, especially in the years between 1945 and 1975? One intriguing set of ideas has been presented by George Monbiot. [1] [2] Intriguing because they link together so many disparate observations. Refreshing, because they challenge existing orthodoxies of Right and Left. For George, the culprit is Neoliberalism, which he defines as a cultish ideology based on a relentless cutting of the state, privatisation, low taxes and the freest possible flows of taxes and people. (the latter certainly explains why we couldn’t see the pictures in the Uffizi galleries in Florence)

Of course, it’s a contribution, not a panacea. But it touches on the same sort of themes as Thomas Piketty, Wilkinson and Pickett, Hutton and others whom we have referenced on these pages from time to time. That the endless competition by individuals for wealth and status will end up by leaving all of us poorer. Except the very rich, who own all the media by which we are told what a great idea all of this is. And as for the UK and poor old Manchester United? Perhaps both of them need to take a very long, cool look at the fundamental causes of their unhappy states. Before worse happens.

[1]https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/why-is-britain-s-mental-health-so-incredibly-poor-it-s-because-our-society-is-spiralling-backwards/ar-BB1m8tVR?ocid=msedg

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/10/britain-mental-health-society-neoliberalism-politicians

#neoliberalism #finance #wealth #mental health #housing #inequality

Four cheers for the minimum wage

They said it couldn’t be done. It would cause mass job losses and economic melt down. It undermined the morals of the poor. So screeched a whole bevy of right wing “news”papers, magazines and think tanks when Tony Blair’s Government introduced the UK’s minimum wage policy in 1999.[1] We’ll let the excellent Philip Inman of the Guardian give you the details. Our own gloss will be a little more historic.

Scholars scrabbling over the rubble of the Great Crash of 1929 soon discovered one simple, outstanding truth. The boom of the 1920s had held a fatal weakness. Wages stayed low, while tax reforms had ignited an unstable credit and spend boom among the rich. Demand was suppressed, and as the factories filled with unsellable goods, the stocks of the companies that made them were seen to be based on sand. The resulting crash became much worse, for the poor had no reserves to build in the good times to see them through. The message was an is clear to all of us who have managed to move beyond the simple verities of first year undergraduate economics. Helping the poor makes everyone richer.

So to all the pearl-clutchers, and to those who have their own reasons to conveniently believe in free market economics, we would observe this. Study the history of things like minimum wages, working hours directives and the abolition of serfdom. You disparage them not at your own peril, but at everyone’s.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/27/minimum-wage-is-uks-most-successful-economic-policy-in-a-generation

#demand #economics #great depression #wall street crash #jm keynes #minimum wage

Will the real Conservative Party please stand up?

In his masterwork Reflections on the Revolution in France, Conservative philosopher Edmund Burke identified the dangers of fast, uncontrolled change.[1] He also laid out the well-run, well- policed state as the only basis for a secure and prosperous life. The imperfection of human nature required that all should be safeguarded from each other. That in turn requires armies, police forces, and where necessary laws to safeguard the existing moral and social order. It is an honourable tradition; the experience of the French Revolution showed that it worked. And many contemporary Conservatives can site it- justifiably, for example in the restriction or even prohibition of seriously dangerous substances, such as alcohol, nicotine or cocaine. And for this reason, millions of ordinary, decent Conservative voters trust only this party to restrict the highly dangerous, possibly addictive drug cannabis. Read the Daily Mail if you don’t believe us.

Which is why it seems odd at first site that former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss should seem so opposed to a Conservative Government’s attempt to restrict the sale of vapes. [2] The explanation is, of course, that Truss belongs to a second Conservative tradition. That free markets are the only certain guarantee of human happiness. That restrictions and red tape are not only the sure brakes on enterprise, they are an immoral intrusion on the freedom of the individual. Again, an honourable tradition, rooted essentially in the works of Smith, Ricardo and Hayek. And proved right in the experience of the Russian Revolution and the tragic, genocidal decades which followed it. Which is why think tanks like the Adam Smith Institute advocate the legalisation of cannabis [3] Impeccably Conservative-well they were such inspirations not only for Truss, but for her predecessor Margaret Thatcher as well.

For any law, however much it claims to be for the public good, is also Red Tape. Any regulation is a restriction on someone’s freedom somewhere. To exalt the monarchy, as many Conservatives do, is at once to exalt the state. and thereby an endless flow of taxes, regulations and laws. Someone has to pay for the Monarch’s dinner-so why not everyones? A true belief in the efficacy of markets would allow the universal sale of vapes everywhere, to anyone. To oppose that is to admit that the goodness of free markets is not true everywhere, at all times. And a law that is not universal at all times cannot be true, as science shows. (Example: the atomic number of Iron is the same wherever you go in the Universe) So-should a Conservative before or against the free sale of vapes?

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflections_on_the_Revolution_in_France

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/29/rishi-sunak-smoking-ban-liz-truss-vapes-tobacco-sales

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflections_on_the_Revolution_in_France

#vapes #nicotine #cannabis #caffeine #alcohol edmund burke #adam smith #liberty

Newsweek’s startling revelation about Donald Trump

“He’s going to be your President too.” These wise words were spoken to us by a much older cousin concerning the US Elections of 1968. And they have stayed with us ever since. Even if you are British, German, French or Australian, the forthcoming US Presidential election concerns you very closely. Which is why this article by Robert B Reich of Newsweek has caused us considerable disquiet. All the more so, because Newsweek has always been scrupulously neutral in its reporting, if anything leaning right of centre. [1]

It acknowledges just concerns about Biden‘s apparent physical frailty (well covered already), but then tuns to a considerable evidence list that suggests that the 45th President of the United States, and current Republican frontrunner has some substantial questions to answer about his own health, to say the least. Without stealing Robert’s thunder (we ‘ve given you the click) we will make this tiny crib as a taster

“………….In October, Trump warned his supporters that Biden will lead America into World War Two. He has also claimed that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group, is “very smart.” That whales are being killed by windmills.……….

World War Two?-uh, haven’t we sort of had that already? Whales and windmills? You don’t need a PhD in either Zoology or physics to question that one.

Yes, this blog is written in England, by persons who do not hold US citizenship. But we do share the planet with a country which holds a colossal nuclear arsenal, one which could destroy the world many times over if it were activated in a moment of narcissistic rage. We humbly beg our friends over the pond to please, please think very carefully, both now and in November.

_{We thank Mr P Seymo}_{ur for this story}

[1]https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741

[2]https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/opinions/trumps-mental-gaffes-obeidallah/index.html

#Donald J Trump #dementia #alzheimers #paranoia #narcissism #presidential elections