Why a falling population will solve most of our problems

Photo by Kostiantyn Stupak on Pexels.com

Back in the 1970s we used to worry about rising population the way we worry about antibiotics now. Problems like pollution, energy shortages and even climate change were being discussed in the better pubs in the area where we grew up. Birth rates were soaring around the world. Everyone agreed that by 2010 there were going to be far,far too many people for the planet to support (and you wondered why you weren’t invited to more parties?-ed)Since when the situation has changed. Rulers, particularly of the more authoritarian sort, are fretting that their populations are actually starting to fall. The reason this keeps them awake at night, they asseverate, is that thereby there will not be enough young workers to keep pensioners in the style of living to which they have become accustomed (although we privately suspect they have darker motives) “Make women have more children!” is their cry. How about “the pram is the tank of the Home Front!” Or has that one been used already?

The reality is rather different as Larry Elliott points out so limpidly in this short piece for The Guardian [1] A falling population means less pressure on oceans, air and land. Less need for antibiotics! More seats in cinemas and restaurants! And, quite quickly, a rising GDP per head of population. As for the economic thing: a single modern worker produces and consumes far more GDP and products than a hundred medieval farm hands. To keep the economy growing you just need to raise the standard of living, you don’t need more workers

But as committed feminists we have another sort of worry. If you really want women to have more children, you will have to take them out of universities and higher education generally. Re- structure the wage market so men are again the main breadwinners. Recreate ideologies of patriarchy and submission, a bit like those currently popular in Afghanistan. is that what you really want?

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/02/britain-falling-birthrate-economy-politics

#feminism #pollution #population #economics #ecology

Why Keir Starmer can never be Clement Attlee

We apologise to overseas readers for the parochial references in this blog: but are our problems so different from yours?

As we write BBC Radio 4 is running a series about the 1945 General Election and the marvellously successful Labour Government that followed it.[1] For six years the United Kingdom had the most serendipitously achieving administration it had experienced since Elizabeth I. As he listens (assuming he has time) our current Prime Minister must ask himself “Why can’t I do what Clement Attlee did? Why is the concatenation of problems-defence, economy, social policy- so absolutely, stupendously overwhelming that even my own backbenchers are in such overwhelming revolt? [2]

No one doubts Starmer’s intelligence. Or courage. Or good intentions. However,the problems run too deep, and in our opinion are insoluble if the nation state is the means chosen to solve them. Clement Attlee inherited a world where companies, and the financial structures that supported them essentially existed at a national level (or within the imperial frameworks those nations had created) So the writ of Westminster really did run, and no one could afford to ignore it. Legislation passed by a British Government really did have the power to shape lives. Improve them sometimes,even, as the creation of the NHS and NATO so admirably demonstrated.

If Starmer’s government fails it will fall to Reform UK to make the necessary budgetary adjustments which Labour could not. A hint of the difficulties they may face comes from Warwickshire where a brave 18 year old has bravely taken the reigns of their new Council.[3] He states his belief as “Brexit, sovereignty and a strong and united family unit”.

Perfectly admirable and defensible beliefs, even if one disagrees with one or more of them intellectually. Unfortunately his manifesto raises many questions. Like : what is sovereignty? How far can it be sustained in a world where almost half of all available investment capital is in private hands? Can a country the size of the UK create and sustain its own industries against production runs in the power of giant corporations, or countries the size of China and India? How long did City States like Milan and Florence sustain their sovereignties against giant antagonists like Spain and France? Your Renaissance history will help here, but don’t worry: you won’t have to read it for long.

Antagonists they may seem, but both Starmer and Reform are two of a kind. A national government may have some power to alleviate, sometimes, if enough of its supporters let it. Its days of initiative and creation are long gone. Keir Starmer will never be Clement Attlee. And no one will be Winston Churchill either.

[1]https://www.bing.com/search?q=bbc+radio+series+1945+election&form=ANNTH1&refig=6F075FD8E25341758E4FFB72C8969982&pc=HCTS

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/26/no-10-government-talks-labour-rebels-attempt-quash-welfare-bill-revolt

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/26/reform-warwickshire-council-head-rob-howard-quits-after-five-weeks-leaving-18-year-old-in-charge

#Labour #Reform UK #politics #economic #nationalism #finance #trade #economics

Weekly round up: Animal chats, monkey business, patronising the working classes-and why Prudence is dear to us

a few stories to get you doing the work for a change

Hope for Alzheimers It’s an understated truth, but the general ageing of the population is one of the most significant trends in human history. That’s why doing everything we can to understand it is so important. We took heart from this new Alzheimer’s test which shows real promise The I paper via Apple News https://inews.co.uk/news/health/blood-test-scientists-alzheimers-nhs-3733762_{thanks to P seymour}

Nigel Farage is becoming the true tribune of the working class in Britain reports the acute mind of Andy Haldane. Because Farage realises that immigration and inter ethnic jealousies it engenders are the prime motivating force for most humans, way ahead of housing, health and certainly education.. And we have noticed a tendency among the educated classes(not Haldane) to sneer at ordinary people like builders and taxi drivers for nurturing these hatreds. Remember one thing: the high-consumption high-energy life styles of these so called educated classes are causing the ecological collapse which causes immigrants to flee to richer countries in the first place. Don’t be surprised if the lower orders , who are the first to encounter all the new neighbours, begin to act in emotional and inconvenient way. The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/08/nigel-farage-like-a-tribune-for-working-class-former-bank-of-england-economist-andy-haldane

Monkey Pandemic -echoes of Gibbon? Pandemics start small, but eventually cause the Decline and Fall of vast empires. That’s the clear lesson from History. Which is why we take this warning Sierra Leone mPox raises fear of spread from the redoubtable Nature Briefing very seriously indeed

A surge of mpox infections in Sierra Leone has stretched the country’s health-care system, sparking fears that the virus will spread to neighbouring countries in West Africa. Sierra Leone has confirmed more than 3,000 infections in the last month, and an analysis of viral genomes suggests there have been at least four times more infections than officially reported, says genomic epidemiologist Edyth Parker. The recent withdrawal of US funds for foreign aid will make curbing the outbreak even more difficult, experts say.Nature | 5 min read
Reference: Virological.org analysis

If I could talk to the animals Ever since the early days of iconic simians like Washoe, Kanzi and Flipper the Dolphin, researchers have been hoping to crack the code of animal language. But would be Dr Doolittles should beware: such languages may not exist, warns this prescient article from the Conversation. Making the hunt for them a wild goose chase. Or should that be a mare’s nest? (that’s enough flippancy–ed)

https://theconversation.com/animals-cant-talk-like-humans-do-heres-why-the-hunt-for-their-languages-has-left-us-empty-handed-258321?utm_medium=email&utm_campai

Prudence always The Beatles White album was for us the least of their works. It seemed to be full of rather self indulgent essays in mediocrity and could have done with being cut down from two of those funny black shiny things to one. However, one song does stand out. Dear Prudence, covered by many, was always best in the original

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=beatles+dear+prudence&&mid=63C4B520F9B93453531963C4B520F9B934535319&&FORM=VRDGAR

#nigel farage #immigration #alzheimers #mPox #pandemic #linguistics

AIDS breakthrough shows what science can do

We now live in an age when science (and the rational habits of mind it depends upon) is under attack. Heirs to the rational tradition have always had to live with religious fundamentalists who deny inconvenient truths like evolution. But nowadays attacks come thick and fast from those who wish to deny climate change, the dangers of smoking, the efficacy of vaccines and much besides. From people who nevertheless cheerfully accept other scientific findings which suit them. So, just to redress the balance we thought we’d showcase this breathtaking new advance in AIDS research which, for the first time, holds out the hope of a permanent cure.

It comes from Kat Lay of the Guardian,[1] reporting the work of the Peter Doherty Institute in Australia.[2] The background will be familiar: the great evolutionary survival trick of the HIV was to bury itself deep in certain white blood cells of the immune system, where it was immune to our attack. In the words of Kat:

In a paper published in Nature Communications, the researchers have shown for the first time that mRNA can be delivered into the cells where HIV is hiding, by encasing it in a tiny, specially formulated fat bubble. The mRNA then instructs the cells to reveal the virus. First AIDS was a death sentence: then it could be slowed with drugs. Now at last comes hope of a real cure for its 40 million or so sufferers

Science itself is a process, not a monolithic entity. It evolves, refines, and corrects itself over time. But when people selectively accept only the parts that align with their worldview, they undermine the very foundation of rational inquiry This kind of cherry-picking often stems from cognitive biases, ideological commitments, or economic incentives. Climate change denial, for example, is frequently tied to political or financial interests, while opposition to vaccines or smoking regulations can be fuelled by misinformation or personal convenience. But the deniers should remember one thing: if they do decide to overthrow the rationalists, will they put anything better in our place?

Truth is compared in Scripture to a streaming fountain; if her waters flow not in a perpetual progression, they sicken into a muddy pool of conformity and tradition.”

Milton: Areopagitica

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jun/05/breakthrough-in-search-for-hiv-cure-leaves-researchers-overwhelmed?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[2]https://www.doherty.edu.au/

#HIV #AIDS #disease #mRNA #medicine #science #climate change #smoking

Renewable energy from seaweed Now there’s a thought

If we are going to get through the current climate crisis, and come out alive at the other end, we ‘ll need to consider every new idea, however outre it may sound at first sight, Which is why we want to showcase, via the Conversation,[1] the work of Mike Allen , Professor of Genomics at the University of Exeter and founder of SeaGen,[2] a company which has the courage and vision to think differently. ]For Mike thinks that by using robotics, he can harness the enormous biomass of seaweed in the sargasso sea, and other places

Now we’ve always been pro- seaweed here. Veteran readers may recall our promotion of the new Sussex kelp forest, both on this site and in articles in local newspapers and websites [3] and we certainly talked about how the stuff, especially kelp, could be a source of all kinds of useful things like food and fertiliser. But as his article and website makes clear, Mike is taking this to a whole new level. By using autonomous robotic systems, the harvesting and processing of the weeds can be done on an ergonomic and industrial scale.

We have no financial or any other connection to this man or his company. But we are massive fans of the hopeful start-up. Because we believe that progress, real progress grows form that complicated network of new companies , university departments, government agencies and anonymous little industrial estates where the real dreams of the future are born. We’ve done stories like this before, and will do more in the future. If you really need a declaration of interest it is this: they may help us to survive.

[1]https://theconversation.com/how-seaweed-is-a-powerful-yet-surprising-climate-solution-251195?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%

[2]https://www.seagen.io/

[3]https://www.sussexgreenliving.org.uk/sussex-kelp-forest-leads-the-way-by-keir-hartley-first-published-in-west-sussex-county-times/

#seagen #seaweed #sustainability #robotics #ocean #climate change

Whatever happens, Donald Trump still matters

President Trump Postlaunch Remarks (NHQ202005300037) by NASA HQ PHOTO is licensed under CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0

As we write these words, President Donald Trump seems to have run into some largely self-inflicted economic troubles. It is hard to say how serious or long lasting these are, and whether they will permanently affect his ability to govern. But one thing is clear: even if he fell from office tomorrow, his significance, his very presence would last for all time. He and his movement are a symptom not a cause. As two articles in the Guardian, one by Richard Partington, and the other by George Monbiot, make clear what has been going on. [1] ]2]

Globalisation, Neo-liberalism, free movement of capital and people, call it what you will, has brought us unprecedented advances in knowledge, and prosperity for billions of people who would otherwise have been excluded from both these things Yet in the countries where the creed began, especially those free market Anglo-Saxon economies of the USA and UK, it has left millions behind. Whose lives rot in the shadow of decaying factories, crumbling roads and decrepit health systems. While lurid images of good times and progress still flit across their screens, their only link to the bright hopeful world beyond. Some, like the educated and the rich are still doing well. Why not them? In such desperate circumstances it is all too easy to start blaming foreigners, global elites, or the tiny fraction who follow divergent sexual practices. And if the educated become an enemy, how will they adopt our values of reason and evidence?

Trump speaks for millions of these people, and that is why his support not only holds up, it may even grow as the crisis gets worse, as George opines. We don’t agree entirely with his analysis: many people we know who hold populist opinions are securely embedded in well funded pensions or established businesses. For us, the roots of xenophobia and self congratulation are far deeper. But the vast spread of uncertainty, insecurity and above all a pervasive sense of dread, the downsides of economic “efficiency” and ergonomic supply chains are the sea in which these emotions thrive. “Socialists do fine until they run out of other peoples’ money” runs the old saloon bar cliche. To which Donald Trump and others would retort “Capitalists do fine until they run out of other people’s security. And jobs. And eventually their nations.

Why did no one ever make a better case for a mixed economy, surely the answer to our problems?

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/13/trump-bullying-must-stop-but-true-costs-globalisation-remain

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/13/trump-populists-human-nature-economic-growth?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

#USA #donald trump #neo liberalism #globalisation #populism #economics #inequality

If you want to know why vaccines work, read this

Today we turn our blog over lock, stock and barrel to that admirable website Nature Briefing, whose links we have posted before and will do so again. This main piece from them explains we have done so:

Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases. But for some, that is changing: a second unvaccinated child in Texas died this week from measles. Anti-vaccine misinformation is rampant, not least from members of the administration of US president Donald Trump. Globally, many children still die because they can’t get the immunizations that they should, and cuts to international aid put progress at risk.

At the same time, vaccines are reaching new heights of success: the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine appears to prevent almost all cervical cancers. Vaccines against COVID-19 were developed with unprecedented speed and saved millions of lives. And from a scientific standpoint, the future looks bright, with mRNA technology, unlocked by pandemic-era research, offering hope for new jabs against viruses such as monkeypox, and therapeutic vaccines against cancer.Nature | 6 min read

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.!!!! Please !!!!

The piece follows with some excellent, easy to understand graphics, which you will have to click on their website to look at, and which obviously we can’t reproduce here. To extract some killer facts: by eliminating smallpox, vaccines have saved 5 million lives a year. By eliminating other scourges including measles, tetanus and TB they have probably saved about 154m lives overall since 1975. That anti-vaxxers must now march their legions against HPV vaccines raises deep questions about misogyny as well as the public understanding of science.

But it’s that quote at the beginning of the nature article which as got the hook in us. “Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases.” Yep, it’s that word luxury. It’s often associated with the word Vanity. And we need a bonfire of many of those very soon.

Once again, if you want to see the graphics, do this!

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.

Antimicrobial resistance: its not just bacteria Plus: see if you can spot the hidden message in this blog

Stop the press! Urgent! Even though it’s Thursday afternoon and we’ve done our blog for the day, a new story is bursting to be told. Because while leafing through the Interweb to see if we had been included in any top secret message groups, we came across a story by the assiduous Clara Harter of the Los Angeles Times: Deadly Drug Resistant fungus CDC calls urgent threat is spreading in hospitals [1] We won’t steal Clara’s thunder. But basically, it’s called Candida auris, it spreads rapidly in healthcare facilities. and it tends to target the sick and the old.

Wanting to know more , we went to the site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)[2] whose purpose, as every schoolchild knows is goal is to protect public health and safety through the control and prevention of disease injury and disability both in the USA and throughout the world[3](fungi don’t stop at national borders, you see) We found their web page to be concise, easy to access and extremely helpful. How lucky Americans are, to have such a body that anticipates threats to public safety, co-ordinates the efforts of medical facilities and health agencies and keeps the public informed, free of charge!

Well until recently they were, Because we have learned that the CDCs are yet another target in the cross hairs of Mr Musk and his enthusiastic band of young cost cutters. [4] According to the independent Medical Economics:

The cuts include 1,300 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff — about 10% of its workforce — and all first-year officers in the Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) — a disease response unit.

We are ignorant of Mr Musk’s motives; he may be a man of profound compassion and acute foresight. His economic learning may be profound; we cannot say. But if the fungus spreads, and if its economic cost is as great as its human one, we will know that it could have been prevented.

[1]https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-03-27/deadly-drug-resistant-fungus-cdc-calls-urgent-threat-is-spreading-in-hospitals

[2]https://www.cdc.gov/candidiasis/antimicrobial-resistance/index.html#:~:text=At%20a%20glance%201%20Antimicrobial%20resistance%20happens%20when,common%20type

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_federal_agencies_targeted_by_DOGE

[4]https://www.medicaleconomics.com/view/elon-musk-s-doge-and-its-impact-on-federal-health-agencies-explained

#DOGE #CDC #fungus #antimicrobial resistance #public health #disease prevention #medicine

Why Capitalism held the moral advantage(until very recently)

At least the Left had moral purpose. For all the mass murders. inefficiencies and lies perpetrated under Socialist systems, we cared about the poor! Whereas you lot (the Capitalists, comrades) are nothing but selfish greedy amoral money grabbers, hooked on cocaine and fast sports cars. But Capitalism has one moral advantage wired into its very DNA. It foments truth and honest dealing.

Before you reel in disbelief, citing hoards of dodgy builders, corrupt bond traders and megalomaniac media moguls, consider this. If I buy a load of concrete from you to make a reliable bridge, I need to know it works. If I know I can sue you because the concrete is unreliable, and get good judgement in a court, you are much more likely to supply me with good concrete. The bridge stays up, and I am confident I may build another. If on the other hand you are a friend of the President, or a member of his party, you can buy the judgement of that court. You keep your money, I get no redress. The Party and The President get a kickback. But the long term consequences are dire. Bridges fall down. Less people undertake the risk of building them, as the chances of a total loss soar. Foreigners especially will suspend their investment. For if a native cannot get justice, what chance for evildoers like them in such a system? It was this truth we overlooked: and no educated progressive we know has been a socialist since about 1985. This idea of open, independent, and above all transparent justice was the real American Exceptionalism. And why they began to pull ahead even of relatively open societies like Britain, where the justice system was mired in class prejudice.

However it seems to us that President Trump and his administration may have started to reverse this process. As Giselle Ewing explains in Politico[1] the Trump government has embarked upon a highly partisan series of attacks on both individual lawyers lawyers and the firms that employ them. This barrage of measures include investigations, denials of security clearances, terminations of contracts, and even blacklists. All in effect dividing the legal system and its future promotions into two camps. One of the Government. The other: its opponents. Once again, we stress that in our view Mr Trump is acting rationally by his own lights, and above all those of his supporters. Who are for the most part poor labourers and struggling small businessmen. Whose everyday lives are harsh and insecure. To whom long term concepts like Justice and Equity will seem abstract and far away. But if this trend continues, then the USA may end like Russia or one of those African countries where justice is no more than the whim of the President. And economic forces like investment, property rights and and trust behave accordingly.

[1]tps://onlinescientias.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=11346&action=edit

#justice #equity #legal system #donald trump #law #economics #investment

Black Universities: a source of untapped potential

“The trouble with racism is that it means second-rate people in first rate jobs.” These words, once spoken casually to us, are the real basis of our opposition to discrimination of all kinds: It’s inefficient; it’s not in the long term interests of the oppressor. All societies suffer from hierarchy and ethnic hatreds, But was saddest of all to see the United States of America, born in such enlightenment, to be so disfigured by this most ancient weakness of the human mind. One attempt to counter this was the establishment of Historically Black Universities and Colleges, which aimed to provide some higher education for students who were excluded from white institutions. They have been around for a long time, and you would have thought by now that the penny would have dropped: “this is a fantastic source of underused potential which could benefit us all, especially now that China is treading on our cowboy heels”. Well, read this and think again: Unshackle Historically Black Universities in Nature Briefing

Historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) in the United States “are producing world-class research and record numbers of Black scientists with one hand tied behind our backs and shackles on our ankles” because of “consistent, drastic underfunding” compared to institutions established to educate white students, writes evolutionary biologist Joseph Graves Jr. “For example, my research group alone has produced more Black women with PhDs in microbial evolution in the past five years than the rest of the country has in the past five decades.” Graves calls on industry, philanthropists and individuals to shore up weakening government support for HBCUs, minority-serving institutions and tribal colleges and universities.Nature | 10 min read

It’s not that we especially like black people ,or white people, or any ethnic, religious or social group . Quite the opposite, most of the time, for most of them. Nor are we especially compassionate or just, as far as we know. But we do regard all forms of generalised prejudice as a debility of the human mind, like the propensities to gamble, drink to excess, or indulge in concupiscent and promiscuous sexual practices. (that’s a polite way to put it!-ed) All of these errors waste time and money which in the long run would make us wiser, happier and safer. Let’s see if anyone does anything about these colleges.

#HBUCs #education #prejudice #racism #supercilious #economics #USA