The article we have attached contains everything you need to know(almost)

The Fall of the Roman Empire and the rise of Christianity are the two dominant events in Western Civilisation. For they form the framework of our entire intellectual approach to belief, to art. to science and to politics and society. The doings of Gregory the Great, Charlemagne, St Francis Xavier, Napoleon, the Founding Fathers of the USA, and many others were all entirely conceived and framed in that meta-narrative, The Renaissance, Enlightenment, and Christianisation of vast areas were due to those who still avidly studied Greek and Latin, or spoke daughter languages such as French, Spanish and Portuguese. How did the Roman Empire transform so quickly? And then collapse?

Dr Jonathan Kennedy[1] thinks he has the answer. Following closely the work of Professor Kyle Harper, a scholar we have often cited in these pages (LSS 13 5 24,24 6 21 10 3 21) he sees the plague of Cyprian of the mid third century as the key tipping-point. There had been a terrible plague before: the Antonine one of the late second century, but somehow, like a groggy fighter getting up off the canvas, the Empire had recovered. This time was different. This was the time that the Old Gods failed. They lost the people’s hearts forever to a new God, who, until then had not been doing notably well. And anyone with even a casual acquaintance with Roman History will tell you, the whole feel of the Empire changed in those fifty crucial years. A citizen of Alexander Severus(d 235) inhabited a world of temples, philosophers, the agora and open towns in a vast trading network, which would have been recognisable to Cicero, or even Plato. A subject of Diocletian(reigned 284-305) saw a world of Churches, walled towns, command economies: the Middle Ages in the bud. The Plague of Cyprian sits right across these years, although Professor Harper also cites climate change, as old LSS buffs know well.[3]

So- most of what you need to know? Well, yes, today more than ever. Once again a society that imagined itself to be prosperous and enlightened sees its very foundations threatened, The old open trade routes are rapidly giving way to protectionism. Massive climate change hovers in the wings. We have already had one pandemic, and it almost wrecked our economies. Others threaten. As we write these words news comes that avian flu has once again jumped the species barrier, wiping out a valuable collection of rare cats in the State of Washington in the USA.[2] If not this influenza, there will be others. Is our world about to be transformed again, forever?

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/25/birth-jesus-plague-roman-empire-christianity

[2]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyvx4d1n4vo

[3] Kyle Harper The Fate of Rome Princeton University Press 2018

#plague of cyprian #christianity #roman empire #pandemic #economics #society

Southern States make the same old mistake: pity them in the long run

Pity the poor people of the Southern United States! Because they are making the same mistake as their ancestors did long, long ago. For much the same reasons, we suspect. Have a look at this from Nature Briefings, Southern Scientists Face Political Problems

A survey of faculty members working in US southern states suggests that the political climate is hitting morale among academics and driving a brain drain away from the region. Nearly 3,000 self-selected participants cited diminished academic freedom, restrictions on reproductive healthcare, harassment and the erosion of support for diversity, equity and inclusion programmes. “Multiple faculty members at my institution have been doxxed and harassed, including by elected officials,” wrote one female instructor in Texas. “This makes it difficult for me to do my job or feel safe on campus or at home and honestly just live my life.”Nature | 6 min read

Teaching of certain ideas is to be restricted or banned, The Ten Commandments displayed in every University Classroom……why the fear of words, the loathing of discussion? Because the dominant group (largely white, male and fundamentally Christian) is profoundly insecure. A siege mentality is setting in. The key questions in academe: (“Is this Beautiful?” ” Is this True”) are now too dangerous to ask. There is to be one question only-“does this build up the defences of an ethno-nationalist society?”

The same attitude to learning bedevilled the Old Plantation-and-Slave south before 1861. As Hugh Brogan observes[1]

….a strange barbarous culture grew up which quickly annihilated …Jefferson’s Dream that the University of Virginia, which he founded in 1819, would be a great light of civilisation. The colleges of the South remained jokes until into the twentieth century pp294-295

And now their descendants are playing the same sad game. Why the fear of ideas, the need to snuff out questions?

America is fast becoming an ethno-nationalist society, where different groups jostle for power and status. Now there are good reasons to suspect that this is the natural state of human society. We have argued this before on this blog, citing authors such as Chua and Kaufman(LSS Passim) It may well be understandable, natural even, to defend a state of affairs where your group is the top dog. But happens when someone else has been concentrating on more profitable things, and then comes to get you? The South first learned the answer to that in 1865. Will it have to do so again?

[1] Hugh Brogan The Pelican History of the United States Penguin 1986 see especially ch 14

##ethno-nationalism #slavery #The South #Evangelical #republican

A whole herd of hominins. But how different are they really?

Fans of human evolution have more to contend with than the followers of any football team. For every one of the competitions they’re in ( Champions League, La Liga, Copa del Rey, whatever) We have six new skulls and four new DNA analyses every week. Or so it seems, and just about every one leads to a new species. Or so that seems too..

Proof of this comes from two new articles we have for you today. William Hunter of The Daily Mail (despite all their other deficiencies, a great Science Desk) waxes lyrical on recent discoveries in China [1] which suggests a fourth late-to modern population of hominins who lived alongside Homo sapiens, Neanderthals and Denisovans about 100 000 years ago. But how different were they-and how different were the other three? Our thoughts on that one below. Meanwhile Nature Briefings offers us this, An Ancient Encounter Frozen in Time

Some 1.5 million years ago, two ancient hominin species crossed paths on a lake shore in Kenya. Their footprints in the mud were frozen in time and lay undiscovered until 2021. Now, analysis of the impressions reveals that they belonged to Homo erectus, a forebear of modern humans, and the more distant relative Paranthropus boisei. The two individuals walked through the lake area within hours or days of each other — leaving the first direct record of different archaic hominin species coexisting in the same place.Nature | 5 min read
Reference: Science paper

No one would take away from the dedication and professional work of the team who made this discovery. It’s just that, with so many different hominin species hurrying about, and so few with mobile phones with which to record each other, can we really be sure who planted their feet in that long ago bed of sand?

Which leads us to recall the case of the Red Deer Cave people. Who, until recently, were a bit of a mystery in the human story. They looked very archaic and odd. But they dated very recently (maybe about 14000 years BCE) They were in the right place at the right time, Could they, might they, be real Denisovans, maybe, huh? To which recent DNA analysis gave the resounding answer: no, they were fully and completely 100% human. If they were alive today you’d have to give them a vote, a credit card and a driving licence. They couldn’t be worse than some other users of the road. All of which leads us to the following conclusions

1 Keep digging in China (look what they did for dinosaur research)

2 Let’s stand one step back from all claims and remember what happened to some of them in the past

3 What if the whole business of species labelling is missing the point, and there’s really only been one human line for three million years, with startling local changes in gene frequencies due to ecological pressures and tiny population sizes?

Only we can say that, because we don’t belong to any institution. Occasionally, that’s a freedom worth having.

[1]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14152203/big-head-people-lost-species.html

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Deer_Cave_people

#human evolution #paleoanthropology #dna #hominin #china #africa #paranthropus

A quick round up: Plastic Pollution just got worse, Computers just got faster…and who were the Denisovans?

a few stories that caught our eye

Plastic pollution just got worse Remember those old movies where hard-pressed producers stared combining other movies? Think Godzilla and King Kong or Jesse James and Frankenstein’s daughter. The results were nearly always worse than the original. Well, it’s the same in the ocean PFAs do quite a bit of damage, So do microplastics, all things considered. But when you consider the two together, as Tom Perkins does in this Guardian article, you are in for a whole lot more trouble.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/25/pfas-microplastics-toxic

Quantum Computers just got faster Just when someone comes up with the-best-thing-ever-yet, someone else supersedes it. Remember CRISPR-Cas-9 and Base pair editing? Well now it looks as if AI may be going the same way. Read this:Giant Quantum Computers built from Light, in Nature Briefings

By the end of 2027, researchers at the private quantum-computing firm PsiQuantum aim to be using light in silicon chips to build a giant, programmable quantum computer. That ambitious goal is far ahead of major rivals such as Google and IBM. PsiQuantum researchers say they hope to also show that such a computer can run commercially useful programmes. The company has raised US$1 billion but has shown relatively little compared to its competitors, leaving some scientists worried it’s promising more than it can deliver.Nature | 13 min read

Who were the Denisovans anyway? One of the most intriguing puzzles in paleontology is the nature of the Denisovans, that mysterious third cousin of the modern human family. Since their discovery through the truly remarkable achievements of Professor Paabo and his teams, their details remain sketchy. A few scraps of bone, some DNA, and a few artefacts. So-hats off Linda Ongaro of The Conversation who pulls together what is known now, in November 2024. We are sure that she shares our wish that one day this excellent article will have been superseded.

https://theconversation.com/their-dna-survives-in-diverse-populations-across-the-world-but-who-were-the-denisovans-244441?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%

#dna #pollution #microplastics #PFA #denisovan #quantum computer

From American Decline to World Government: fasten your seatbelts for a bumpy ride

When did America’s Decline end, and the Fall begin? Although future historians will debate, Tuesday November 5th 2024 will be as good as any other point to start from. For it was on this date that a concatenation of forces-economic, political, social-produced the re-election of Donald Trump, and all that was to follow. These forces included an irresolvable racial rancour dating back to slavery; a deep pollution of information in the public sphere; a chronic failing in public education and the ethos to support it. But above all it was the worship of money, and the catastrophic, merciless social and economic inequalities that this engendered, that brought everything low. Writing for The Nation, Tom McCoy details these rather well in the first part of his article [1] (Don’t read the second bit until we say you can) To cut a long story short, we could call this obsession with cash NeoLiberalism.

Let’s just jump across the Atlantic for a moment to say goodbye to Larry Elliott who quits his post at the Guardian after 36 years {2] He too is eloquent on the many things he has witnessed. Among them is this observation on this same cocky, self-satisfied NeoLiberalism

…… the free-market experiment has failed, as some of us said it would all along. Wealth did not trickle down, and instead the gap between the haves and the have-nots widened. The workers laid off when the factories closed in northern England and the US midwest did not find new well-paid jobs but were either thrown on the scrapheap or found low-paid insecure work …………

Financial speculation ran rife once controls on capital were removed, but growth rates in the west were slower than in the postwar heyday of social democracy. Warnings of trouble ahead were ignored until the world’s banking system came close to collapse in the global financial crisis of 2008. [2]

Producing an alienated and impoverished group of vast voting power) which was impervious to the imploring of reason, fact and education. And who could blame them? The exalted free markets have produced such insecurity that a nationalist backlash was inevitable. It is now tearing down every shibboleth that the neoliberals held dear. Low tariffs, free movements of capital and labour, cultural and intellectual exchange are going to the wall, and we can see nowhere that this process can now stop..

Except one. Because while Larry’s article closes with a final nod to the re-emergence of the Nation State, Tom’s goes further and look to the future.(OK, click on his article again) The problem with the Nation State is Pride. It is national Pride which will cause Donald Trump and his friends to start drilling for oil again. By which means all combined attempts to prevent global warming will collapse, as each nation looks to its own interest. Runaway global warming will produce such desolation that any economy and any body politic will become unsustainable, probably as early as the next decade. The resulting chaos will make a world Government essential for human survival. And tom details how this may come about, perhaps in the sixties or seventies.

The American hegemony is now certainly over, How ironic that this was hastened by an arch nationalist such as Trump!

[1]https://www.thenation.com/article/world/american-hegemony-climate/

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/10/from-thatcher-to-trump-and-brexit-my-seven-lessons-learned-after-28-years-as-guardian-economics-editor

#global warming #economics #climate change #donald trump #neoliberalism #free trade #protectionism

Six insoluble mysteries which may end us all

Occasionally we come across websites with lurid titles like “10 UNSOLVED MYSTERIES TO GIVE YOU THE HEEBIE JEEBIES!” And it’s all to do with odd bits of old stone or dodgy claims about flying crockery. Which made us think of a few everyday mysteries about Homo sapiens which are enough to give anyone the aforesaid Heebies, with a few jeebies thrown in for good measure. Because if we do not develop the cognitive capacity to solve them, we could well be heading for the biological equivalent of the junkyard,

(1) Where is the line between the individual and society? Countries that go too far towards prizing the State end up economically stagnant, as the society is captured by a small self-serving elite who grab all the resources. (Think USSR or Venezuela) On the other hand societies with no idea of the common good, where untaxed individuals run around doing what they like, not only end up without worthwhile armies or roads. They also get captured by an elite, this time billionaires, with almost identical outcome to the deluded Commies. No one has resolved this tension in any stable way.

(2) Emotion utterly dominates reason. All the technological and scientific advances that make life worth living (you really wanna give up soap, huh?) are formed in the reasoning part of the brain. Yet most people are driven by deep tides of emotion welling up from the subconscious. These rarely lead to anything profitable, and are the principal causes of most of the obsessions, addictions and generational hatreds which form such an immense drag on progress. Why is logic so weak and blind passion so strong?

(3) The drive to divide into hostile groups We often allude to this one; think football supporters and the Robbers Cave experiment. The American writer James Baldwin saw identity as a serious trap, denying us our own better nature. It may take all the AI in the world to solve this one

(4) The constant need for persecution of others, particularly the weak or disabled. Anyone still deluded about “the moral superiority of the oppressed” could learn from what happens to disabled neighbours in cheap housing estates, and how the noble proletarians make their lives utter hell. Why does everyone want justice, but only for themselves?

(5) The local and the trivial Why do so many people spend so much time learning about the lives of celebrities in tacky media outlets, when they would profit much more from reading magazines like The Economist or Science?

(6) An utter inability to change minds Most people are really rather deft and clever about what is around them; the hierarchies around their neighbours, families, jobs, and so on. But most of what they learned about bigger things like science or society was laid down decades ago. And the habits of mind formed in youth seem impossible to change, even when the survival need to do so becomes clear. This may ultimately be the most dangerous mystery of them all.

No species, however successful it seems at its peak, can long survive the competition from a better-adapted one. Our predecessor Homo erectus had evolved into top predator, and colonised three continents. Before it was utterly outclassed by the more intelligent Homo sapiens in its various subspecies. A newer, more intelligent form of human, perhaps incorporating elements from artificial intelligence and genetic engineering should be able to solve the above cognitive problems with ease. If that happens, there will be little enough space for the predecessor, and no motive to preserve us either.

#climate change #learning #cognition #human evolution #unsolved mysteries

Why we’re two years into a generational war

In the spring of 1789, Europe was at peace. It looked as if it would be a long one. The American-French victory in the Independence war had restored a rough equality of force between Britain and France, the two world powers, so that neither had obvious motives to attack. Further east, Austria, Russia and Prussia had achieved a rough status quo, or at least, had sufficiently fought each other out. To be frank, China, the Mughals and the Ottomans were ceasing to count. Just as in 1990, the world thought it could look forward to decades of relative peace, trade and prosperity.

Instead, events in France lead to the unfolding of a cataclysmic series of events. Each of them so large that on their own they would have been world-shattering. But in the twenty six years-a generation- from 14th July 1789 to 18th June 1815, they were so many and rapid that they left a world transformed and unrecognizable. Think Revolution, regicides, wars, terror, directory, Napoleon, Trafalgar, Austerlitz, Tilsit, Spain, Russia, Battle of the Nations, Elba, Waterloo all tripping in, one after the other in bewildering succession. *(If not, read Robert Harvey The War of Wars-it’s serious history which, amazingly, feels like a page-turning thriller {1])

We know believe that the events that began on 24th February 2024 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine have unleashed a chain of events which will take years and decades to play out. The two opposed coalitions are too big to easily fail. The issues at stake are too profound to escape the debate of war. As a blog which is read all around the world, you might not want to us to take sides. Yet we have to be honest about where we stand. On the one hand the US, EU and their allies have many grievous faults. The other side-Russia, Iran, China and others, may indeed claim- we stress claim-to represent the relatively disadvantaged. However, we know one thing. We are free to write these words in our country, as we would be equally free to criticise our Government, or our allies. All know that we would not be if we were sitting in one of those countries opposed to us. Our Georgian ancestors, who gave up their comfortable lives to confront a similar peril knew that was the single, irredeemable difference between them and their foes. That is what makes our cause just. And one day, we will prevail.

[1]https://www.amazon.co.uk/War-Wars-Struggle-1789-1815-1793-1815/dp/1845296354

#ukraine #russia #china #usa #EU #canada #uk #australia #iran #peace #war #freedom of speech

Two stories that hint how we may become a new species

Things aren’t going too well for poor old Homo sapiens. Like a bacterial colony in a petri dish, we are starting to use up our resources fast, and pathological symptoms are appearing. When a species runs up against its ecological limits, it is quickly replaced by better adapted competitors. Two stories from Nature Briefings indicate how things might go. And that we have a way out of this if we are prepared to adapt.

Report Charts machines meteoric rise Better at maths. Better at pattern recognition. Better at reading. Remember that bright kid in the class? Next time you heard of him was twenty years later and he was Chief Executive Officer of a blue chip corporation. Well, that’s the way it is with AI now. .

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems can now nearly match — and sometimes exceed — human performance in tasks such as reading comprehension, image classification and mathematics. “The pace of gain has been startlingly rapid,” says social scientist Nestor Maslej, editor-in-chief of the annual AI Index. The report calls for new benchmarks to assess algorithms’ capabilities and highlights the need for a consensus on what ethical AI models would look like.Nature | 6 min read
Reference: 2024 AI Index report

Milestone Map of Brain Connectivity Yet there may be a chance of survival. First read this

Researchers have mapped the tens of thousands of cells and connections between them in one cubic millimetre of the mouse brain. The project, which took US$100 million and years of effort by more than 100 scientists, is a milestone of ‘connectomics’, which aims to chart the circuits that coordinate the organ’s many functions. Identifying the brain’s architectural principles could one day guide the development of artificial neural networks. Teams are now working on mapping larger areas, although a whole-brain reconstruction “may be a ‘Mars shot’ — it’s really much harder than going to the Moon”, says connectomics pioneer Jeff Lichtman. Nature | 12 min read

The point is that AI and mammal brains have one thing in common. Both depend on networks and the system control architecture that runs them. In theory it should be possible to create beings which fuse AI with biological neurons. This has already begun, in a small way, with things like brain implants and limb attachments which can interface with the nervous system. It is possible to imagine biocyber hybrids with advanced intellectual and physical capacities which are ready for the challenges of the future. It looks as if Homo sapiens itself may no longer be up to it. But the genus Homo will survive, albeit in modified form. Which has happened successfully before. We’ll leave you with some thoughts from the old British Rocker David Bowie, who memorably observed

The earth is a bitch, we’ve finished our news/Homo sapiens have outgrown their use

Which is the exact text of this blog. He just said it better.

#davis bowie #AI #neural networks #future #pollution #global warming # genetic engineering

How an old History Book still has very real lessons for today

It’s funny how some books suddenly explain something you’ve puzzled all your life. One of our obsessions was always “What was the Roman Empire all about? And why did it fall?” And we ploughed our way through everything from Gibbon to Asimov’s Foundation series. Until we came across RH Davis A History of Medieval Europe”[1]. Suddenly, things began to fall into place.

Before the Industrial Revolution, it was far cheaper to transport goods by water than by land. The achievement of Rome was to be the culminating power that united the whole Mediterranean Basin into a single, prosperous trading area. Where cities could flourish, ideas spread and production be subdivided to the most efficient source. And to do it all with the minimum effort. This was partly by religious tolerance: before Christianity, all beliefs and none were accorded equal status. But it was also done by Law. As Davis explains

“…….[The Romans] knew that all the Mediterranean peoples had a common interest in the commerce of their sea…….they believed that all men had by nature an instinctive knowledge of what was right and what was wrong…and that it was possible to frame laws in accordance with the standard of nature. They distinguished between custom, which was of local significance and law, which appertained to justice and was of universal significance …...

But the barbarians who entered the Empire did not quite see things that way. Most of them-Goths, Burgundians , and so on, came to enjoy, not destroy. But:

“barbarian invaders claimed that their own laws were were particular to themselves, since they were not founded ..on reason, but on the dictates of their divine ancestors….[the Roman Empire] was… cracked by the determination of barbarian invaders to prefer the law of their ancestors to the law of reason, since that preference implied the superiority of loyalty to one’s race over loyalty to the civilised world. It was shattered when traders lost the freedom of the sea. When that happened , the greater part of Europe reverted to an agricultural economy, in which there was no place for the cities that made men civilised” (all quotes pp 4-6)

Today, after a brief period of globalisation, we live in an age of retreat. In most places, people are reverting into ethnic or religious tribes. There are cries to tear down even the few international laws we have, which might have done some thing to keep the peace. Now, there is a very respectable argument to say this is in accordance with the most basic instincts of human nature. And so it might be. But Davis tells us very clearly what the price must be if we now follow this that course. The Dark Ages.

[1] RHC Davis A History of Medieval Europe from Constantine to St Louis Longman 1988

#RHC Davis #Middle ages #medieval #trade #henri #pirenne #dark ages #antiquity #economics

When AI met Archaeology

Photo by Michael Giugliano on Pexels.com

There’s nothing like a breakthrough, when a long delayed problem that no one could crack, suddenly yields to fresh thought. And opens the door to a vast potential new field of learning. Which is why this news from Nature Briefings has been such fun to read in itself, as well as digging into its juicy link article , which, by the way, is eminently readable. Essay on Pleasure revealed in Ancient Scroll

Student researchers have used machine learning to read text hidden inside charred, unopenable scrolls from the ancient Roman city of Herculaneum. The newly revealed passages discuss sources of pleasure including music, the colour purple and the taste of capers. The team trained an algorithm on tiny differences in texture where the ink had been, based on three-dimensional computed tomography scans of the scrolls.Nature | 7 min read

The point for us is this bringing together of two highly disparate disciplines. If archaeologists had said ”please give us enormous sums to crack the problem of the Herculaneum scrolls” someone would, very politely, have told them to go take a walk. And we take a safe guess that the principal interests of AI folk are directed towards finance, pharmaceuticals and physics. It’s when the two are brought together, serendipitously, that we see this marvellous synergy, this sum becoming worth infinitely more than its parts.

And what synergy! For all the many learned books which have been written about it, our knowledge of the Ancient World is actually rather limited. Even authors like Plato and Eratosthenes have only survived in a few, fragmentary texts. The same is true of many early Christian writings. There is only one fragment of the New Testament from before 150 AD, and its tiny. [1]The new CT technique could potentially decipher thousands of fragmentary or badly preserved texts. As our database suddenly grows, we may well find some startling new insights. Or old LSS doctrine that research money spent in one field will pay off in many seems to be vindicated once again. Time for a very smug cup of coffee. No biscuits.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Testament_papyri

#archaeology #CT #AI #scrolls #herculaneum #greeks #romans #christians #jews