A few years ago, at the height of the COVID pandemic, we published a short series of blogs on the other existential threats awaiting the human species once that particular plague had abated.(LSS 23 4 20) Among them was the possibility of a deadly, planet‑altering supervolcano eruption from the Yellowstone Caldera in north‑western USA — a volcanic system whose last explosion was truly colossal.

Today we showcase an article from The Conversation by Ilan Kelman and Matthew Blackett — and what an excellent piece it is, gentle readers![1] It unfolds almost like a disaster film: the early seismic murmurs; the migrating earthquake swarms; the panicked, imperfect evacuations; and finally the eruption itself — immense plumes of superheated gas and ash, pyroclastic devastation, buried cities, and the long, grinding collapse of transport, agriculture, and infrastructure across North America and far beyond. Scientists, it turns out, can write vividly when the need calls.

And our thoughts? First, the caldera is vast — 55 to 70 kilometres across, depending on how you measure it. It has certainly blown before, though that was 631 000 years ago when the humans alive at the time had no power grids, no global food networks, and no supply chains to shatter. Today’s world is far more fragile.

Second, some scientists still assert that there is no immediate probability of an eruption — Yellowstone currently sits at a normal alert level; that at least is the official view.[2]

But geological processes never cease. Even the USGS admits that the widely cited “1 in 10,000 chance per century” rests on statistically weak arithmetic, drawn from only two intervals between three ancient eruptions. And yes — we do recall those unsettling tremors and uplift episodes around 2013–14, even if they ultimately amounted to nothing. The point remains: Yellowstone is not a dead system. It is a sleeping one.

One day, the forces that once blew its roof off will coincide again. When that day  dawns is unknowable. But if Kelman and Blackett’s scenario is even half right, perhaps it is better not to be around to witness the consequences.

[1]https://theconversation.com/end-of-humanity-blow-by-blow-account-of-what-would-happen-if-the-yellowstone-supervolcano-erupted-now-288649?utm_campaign

[2] Yellowstone Caldera – Wikipedia

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