Eleven Hottest Years: While the world argues, the planet sets another relentless record

We once asked someone who is far more intelligent than we are: “what is the secret of intelligence-what do intelligent people really do?” And he replied, “they pick out what is really important from what is merely important,” And in that spirit we urge you gentle readers to approach this story from Nature Briefing with due attention. Put it, as t’were in context with the doings of Mr Trump , the England cricket team and the various rescued felines who will flicker across your screen this morning. All important, no doubt. Yet this is the story which will affect you, your children and their childrens’ children for decades to come. Or maybe not: for it has the potential to ensure that such generations do not exist They’ve called it We’ve just had the hottest 11 years on record

The years from 2015–2025 have been the hottest stretch on record, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization. For the first time, the report includes a measure called Earth’s energy imbalance — the difference between incoming energy from the Sun and the amount radiated back into space — which is at its highest level since observations started in 1960. And in 2024, the latest year that global figures are available, atmospheric CO₂ reached its highest concentration in two million years. “In this age of war, climate stress is also exposing another truth: our addiction to fossil fuels is destabilizing both the climate and global security,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement.

Nature | 5 min read
Reference: State of the Global Climate 2025 report

There are many sorrowful things in here gentle readers, but we advise you to read them for yourselves. What actually scares us is this. Humans seem really good at identifying a perceived threat from other groups of humans. And reacting to it with hysterical fear and anger. They seem less good at perceiving and contending with long term insidious but ineluctable threats that threaten them all with extinction. Is this an actual cognitive defect of the human mind? In which case what chances will Natural Selection offer us in the next few decades?

#climate change #global warming #fossil fuels #oil #middle east #pollution #human extinction

Why North Sea Oil is an error in critical thinking

It’s always touching to listen to the philosophical musings of our old friend Dave Watford and the lads at the Dog and Duck. Last night they favoured us with their thoughts(is that the right word?-ed) on the current Energy crisis:

“ Iss Bonkers! Why don’t we jus drill fer all that oil inna (expletive deleted) norwf sea, an forget orl this (expletive deleted) green palaver? There’s loads of it aht there, an we’d be enji sufichent and all that. Thass wot we did inner noineen (expletive deleted) ighteez an we ad loadsa munny”

That was the gist of what they said. But however well-meant their intentions, their chain of reasoning suffers from two fatal flaws: availability bias, and simplification. In fact this article from Cassandra Etter-Wenzel Anupama Sen and Nadia Schroedern so utterly confronts these errors that we offer it to you more in the spirit of a master class in clear thinking than a comment on energy policy.

Availability Trap 1 Yes there is oil under the North Sea. But even if extracted, it would go straight to world markets, meaning it would have no effect on consumer energy prices in the UK.

Simplicity Trap 1 All that gas would bring down prices The precise cost of the energy (gas renewable, whatever) is called the wholesale price and consitutes only 41% of the price paid per house. The rest includes many other factors like network running costs, etc.

Availability trap 2 Ignore the potential cost savings from renewables, which would actually bring the wholesale price of energy faster

Simplicity trap 2 Ignore other factors like insulation (at which the UK is dire) which would be addressed by a renewable based modernisation policy

Availability Trap 3 Completely ignore that the UKs utter dependency on fossil fuels has led to disaster in the past (1973: 2022) and is therefore likely to do so again

And finally: nostalgia for a vanished golden age is no guide to policy whatsoever. We don’t know the name for that error, but it’s probably the biggest one of all.

Hats off to Will de Freitas of the Conversation for commissioning this exquisite article

https://theconversation.com/would-more-north-sea-drilling-lower-uk-energy-bills-our-analysis-says-no-278467?utm_m

#fossil fuels #renewables #energy #climate change #north sea

Beyond the Nation#3: Assorted Pollution

We kicked off this series with a blog about global warming: if that’s not a pollution story, we don’t know what is. But as several of you pointed out, there are many other forms of pollution in the world, all equally insidious and all resistant to efforts to clean them up. So here we go.

Pollution is the purest demonstration of the nation state’s irrelevance. PFAS don’t recognise sovereignty. Microplastics don’t stop for border guards. Nitrates don’t care who won the last election. They move through the world according to the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology, not geopolitics. And yet we persist with a governance model that is incapable of addressing a problem so acute it threatens basic survival.

Meaning companies have every incentive to dump where enforcement is weakest. Meaning diplomatic stalemates ensure treaties — if they exist at all — move at the speed of the slowest government. Meaning a jungle equilibrium of absolute economic self‑interest prevails, and no state wants to, or can afford to, be the first to tighten rules.

Take mercury. The Minamata Convention (2013)[1] was meant to curb global pollution from this utterly unpleasant and dangerous substance. But it is a broken reed, riddled with exemptions, get‑out clauses and pulled punches. National opt‑outs, slow phase‑outs, feeble enforcement and zero penalties for non‑compliance. Global mercury emissions have not meaningfully declined since the treaty was signed — and in some sectors have increased — seeping into rivers, seas and oceans, and contaminating supposedly healthy foods with a potent neurotoxin.

And alongside mercury we could list such fracases as PFAS (no treaty at all), the Asian brown‑cloud smogs, [2] the Basel Convention on plastic waste (more holes than Emmental cheese), not to mention our own bête noire of antibiotic resistance, where a total failure of international co‑ordination may yet lead to the most deadly health emergency of all.

At no point do we blame individuals, nor look for sinners against whom we may throw stones. Everyone caught in this trap is acting in their own rational self‑interest. Governments, by definition, measure themselves against other governments. The system has worked reasonably well up to now — at least it allowed copying from better practitioners. And companies are simply obeying the iron economic rules of profit and loss, buy and sell.

The trouble is that these rules now operate globally, while regulation remains national. And all the pollutants we have mentioned fall into those gaps — where they will continue to accumulate with deadly effect.

[1] Minamata Convention on Mercury – Wikipedia [2] Asian brown cloud – Wikipedia

#pollution #governance #treaties #PFA #mercury #nitrates #antibiotic resistance

Round up: Adam Smith canes the free marketeers, China ups its game, Power from below, Rain panels, and Milton asks “why?”

Adam Smith revisited: Some would have you believe the great economist Adam Smith was a zealous free-market fundamentalist. The truth is more nuanced, as this thoughtful Guardian piece explains

The Guardian view on Adam Smith: he deserves rescuing from the free-market myth | Editorial | The Guardian

China Ramps up Support for science reports Nature Briefing We are not anti USA, nor pro China. But just as the USA cuts its science budgets and pours billions into wars, China steadily invests in the future. Last time this happened was Iraq in 2003: the subsequent trajectories of the two nations has been clear ever since.

The Chinese government has announced plans to increase two of its key science budgets at the country’s biggest political meeting.
The government proposes to increase its science and technology budget by 10% this year, and its overall research and development expenditure by at least 7% per year over the next five years — a boost that translates to billions of extra dollars each year. The latter target was set as part of China’s next five-year plan, which will serve as an overarching blueprint for the country’s policies from 2026 to 2030. Nature | 4 min read

Geothermal to the rescue: Wind, solar, nuclear, fusion: current events make the search for non-fossil energy more urgent than ever. Ever since the 1970s we’ve heard chat about geothermal energy, which draws cheap power from the warm rocks beneath our feet. Looks like these canny Cornishmen are making it the idea real, according to the BBC

Earth’s heat to produce electricity for homes in UK clean energy first – BBC News

Only happy when it rains What if you had a panel which collected energy when the sun shone, and then when it rained? Spanish scientists have taken a big step towards this happy end by developing a sorty of laminate which collects energy from falling raindrops Here’s El País:

Una lámina desarrollada en España es capaz de generar hasta 100 voltios con una sola gota de agua | Ciencia | EL PAÍS

Quote of the week : Rash hand, what fury urges thee?

Paradise Lost, Book 1X

#renewable energy #science #China #USA #economics

Beyond the Nation State #2: Climate Change and all that

Global warming is here, real, now and it’s getting faster.[1] God knows how many times you’ve been beaten over the head with that , and we loathe to insult your intelligence. But we live in a world of rising temperatures, melting glaciers, collapsing ocean currents, dwindling food supplies and the massive shifts in human migrations which all of these entail. And this set against the possibility of a world which could be cleaner, healthier and politically stable-consequences which a safe climate would bring.[2] So-why bring it all up again, right in the middle of a massive, near-world, war? Because we think it is the ne plus ultra example of this series’ main purpose. The existential threat of global warming is beyond the capacity of a world organised into nation states.

We take today’s reasons from History and Information Theory: is that eclectic or what? The first shows that every time nation states are faced with the issue, they duck it. As we noted before (LSS 30 8 23) the 1970s oil shocks didn’t trigger a transition; they triggered a doubling‑down on fossil dependence in the name of “energy security”. Kyoto collapsed[3] the moment the United States decided it didn’t suit its short‑term interests, and Canada followed like a polite echo. And Information theory explains why: because the nation‑state is, at heart, an information‑processing machine optimised for short‑term competitive advantage. It filters every signal — scientific, moral, existential — through the question: does this keep us ahead of our rivals in the next decade? Long‑term planetary risk is systematically down‑weighted, not because leaders are cowards, but because sovereignty itself is a bandwidth problem. No single state can act at the scale or speed required, and pretending otherwise is a comforting fantasy.

Once again we stress: we do not advocate the abolition of sovereign nation states, as to abolish them would invite utter anarchy. But, just as national governments sit above local governments there must now be some sort of global authority to deal with the dangerous, the pressing, the existential risk of utter ecological and economic collapse. And just to cheer you up, we’ve got several more like this, so keep reading.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00745-z?utm_source=Live+Audience&utm_campaign=366c08b912-nature-briefing-daily-20260309&utm_medium

[2]https://theconversation.com/four-ways-to-tackle-health-and-climate-together-and-lift-millions-of-people-out-of-poverty-276696?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=L [3] Kyoto Protocol – Wikipedia

#climate change #global warming #geopolitics #nation #state #sovereignty #meteorology

Did Christopher Columbus start an Ice Age?

Photo by Balu00e1zs Gu00e1bor on Pexels.com

We know that rising levels of carbon dioxide are driving climate change. We know the mechanism, we know the statistics, and people all across the world are feeling the consequences in floods, fires, crop failures and migrations. But has CO₂ changed the climate before? More pertinently has human meddling with this potent greenhouse gas already unleashed a disaster or so? To our astonishment, some people think it has Stand by for an amazing idea we got from the BBC podcast In Our Time [1] of which more below.

When Columbus sailed to the Americas in 1492 it was not to an empty, underpopulated hemisphere. Both American continents contained thriving populations of agriculturalists. Now, 1492 was indeed the start of huge exchanges of many things-foods, cultures, languages-between Old World and New. But among the earliest and most significant were European diseases like smallpox and measles to which the American populations had no resistance whatsoever. The result was a catastrophic mortality which carried off between 80 and 90% of them.[2] The abandoned farms and croplands quickly reverted to nature. Meaning a sudden massive capture of carbon dioxide which began to cool the planet quickly, leading to the famous Little Ice Age which reached its coldest in the early Seventeenth Century.

And the evidence ? The Little Ice Age is an incontrovertible fact. [3] Ice core samples and climate records indicate the early 17^th century as suffering some of the coldest decades in recorded history. But correlation is not cause, as we always say at this blog. Overall, it looks as if the trend towards the dip had started centuries before, and the recovery was still going on centuries afterwards. The cooling may well have been regional rather than global and there is strong evidence to suggest that other factors such as volcanoes and solar cycles may have played their part. However, that CO₂ is indeed such a potent greenhouse gas makes its role as a contributor to the Little Ice Age all too plausible. And that is what worries us about levels of the stuff shooting up so dramatically in our own times. Although not proven to the levels of certainty like tigers bite and smoking gives you cancer, we think there is enough here for further research, both by scientists and by you, gentle reader. And now on to our thanks.

Because In Our Time,now presented by the urbane Misha Glenny, is one of the greatest cornucopias of intellectual treasure you will find. gentle readers. By spending an hour in its company once a week you will discover the most eclectic range of fine subjects -Science, History, Art, literature, what have you, all presented by leading experts at Tertiary education level or above(see LSS 9 6 22) In an age where so much media chases sensation over substance, its very existence is a reminder that rationality and intelligence still have a place. And we know we have that on the Highest Authority: read this if you don’t believe us:

Happy is the man that findeth wisdom, and the man that getteth understanding. For the merchandise of it is better than the merchandise of silver. And the gain thereof than fine gold. She is more precious than rubies and all the things thou canst desire are not to be compared unto her

Proverbs 3 12-15

[1] BBC Radio 4 – In Our Time, The Columbian Exchange

[2] Columbian exchange – Wikipedia

[3] Reconciling ice core CO2 and land-use change following New World-Old World contact

#global warming #pandemic #columbus #in out Time #little ice age

Air Pollution and Alzheimer’s: grim news

We’ve written a lot about air pollution over the years (LSS passim) Mainly to say that air pollution, particularly in the form of PM_2.5 particles can do all sorts of harm to your lungs and circulatory systems. A fact well-attested by some of the sharpest medical minds on the planet as this WHO report shows[1] But now there is increasing evidence that these pesky particles may play a big part in the massive wave of dementia and neurodegenerative disease that is sweeping across the world. The latest evidence is summarised by Professor Eef Hogervorst for The Conversation.[2] And it’s pretty grim.

Air pollution and the deadly particles it chucks out are associated with all kinds of activities beloved of certain US politicians and their followers. Fossil fuels; road transport; old style heavy industries; good ol’ boys roun’ the barbecue fire, and that sort of thing. But how do you measure it, and separate out other plausible causes? A rather nifty US study started by mapping Medicare claims for dementia by postcode and PM _2.5 particle density. Other factors such as smoking, bad diets and poverty were also considered. The latter was admirably controlled by factoring in Medicaid eligibility, a sure indicator of low wealthin the US. We often use the phrase Killer Quote here: this time it’s more than a rhetorical flourish

…….pollution levels in the areas studied were, on average, about twice as high as the limit set by the World Health Organization (WHO). ………..The researchers found that the increased Alzheimer’s risk in polluted areas remained even after taking high blood pressure, stroke and depression into account

Eef goes on to explain how and why PMs are pulverising your grey matter: but click on! For she does it much better than we ever could.

And our thoughts, gentle readers? Firstly, the work confirms other reports we’ve noticed [3] Secondly the impressive size of the sample. Above all the careful attempts to control other factors such as diet and poverty; we know you prefer thoughtful scholarship over blind jumping to conclusions. Nothing is yet conclusive: but the hypothesis that air pollution causes other forms of dementia fits the available data so very much more closely than anything else does seems to us to be as close to one as you can get.

[1] WHO global air quality guidelines: particulate matter (‎PM2.5 and PM10)‎, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide

[2] https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-may-directly-contribute-to-alzheimers-disease-new-study-275873?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%2%5B2%5D

[3] The effect of ambient air pollution (PM2.5) on dementia risk | Nature Aging

#air pollution #fossil fuels #smoke #alzheimers #dementia #WHO #health #medicine

Recovering Rivers: Yangtse shows the way

Photo by Lucia Barreiros Silva on Pexels.com

The greatest problem in conservation and pollution control is that as soon as someone introduces a new measure, however reasonable, someone else pushes back. Try to control traffic pollution(demonstrably toxic) and all the van drivers get up in arms. Try to restrict smoking, and there’s a huge uproar crying freedom, autonomy and the right to die in peace. Yes, progressive ideas may be rational and based on scientific evidence and of long term benefit. But all too often, they can give people something to lose here, now, in the short term. Everyone really, truly need conservation and pollution projects to succeed quickly, here, now as well. The answer suggests Jonathan Watts of the Guardian, is lying on the banks of the Yangtse river in China and its called Evolutionary Game Theory [1]

The Yangtse had got into a pretty sorry state over the 70 or so years up to 2020. Too much fishing, too many dams. too much pollution. An iconic species called the Baiji dolphin (Lipotes vexillifer) was even driven to extinction, a heart-breaking tragedy if ever there was one. Something had to be done. And instead of just imposing bans and top down heavy handedness, the authorities boxed clever Check this out form Jonathan:

[the policy}t was designed according to the principles of evolutionary game theory, to assess how the three main bodies affected – communities, local governments and central government – would behave depending on different applications of punishments and rewards……The government spent about $3bn on compensating and finding alternative employment for about 200,000 fishers, scrapping many of the 100,000 boats involved.

In other words ordinary people were not treated as reckless ignoramuses, but just strugglers like the rest of. They were both brought in and bought in. a lesson many governments and well meaning reformers could do well to learn from. Now the great river, one of the undoubted wonders of the world, is starting to recover. Albeit a little groggily in places. Combine that with China’s CO₂ emissions starting to flatten out, and their huge lurch towards renewable power, and you may get a glimmer of hope indeed.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/12/china-yangtze-river-recovery-after-fishing-ban

#evolutionary game theory #conservation #ecology #pollution #communities #fishing #angtse

Renewables: Romanian success is a big warning for Uncle Sam

One of the enduring narratives promoted by the fossil‑fuel industry is that economic growth is only possible if we continue relying on their products. It’s a story that has shaped public debate for decades — and stands in the way of a safer, cleaner future. Do we have to take them at their word? Not according to the remarkable developments in Romania, uncovered for us today by Ajit Naranjan of the Guardian.[1]

For what Ajit has found is a country successfully decoupling economic growth from fossil fuels and tying it instead to renewables. It’s all the more interesting because the Romanian oil fields were the very birthplace of Big Oil back in 1857: and the old communist regime seemed to spend its time promoting every dirty fossil fuel technology it could find. But today there is a truly stupendous investment in things like solar panels, offshore wind and nuclear power. Emissions have dropped by 75% since 1990 while GDP has doubled. Some of the achievement is down to policies- such as EU membership, cleaning up agriculture-as well as technologies. And there is a darker side, as gas and oil are far from entirely banished. But we’ll leave all this to Ajit, who does such an informative job. And although Romania so heroically leads the way:

Dozens of countries have completely decoupled their economies from emissions, even accounting for the pollution in imported goods, and many more have managed to grow richer while emissions climb at a slower rate

All of which may be bad news for the USA, which currently seems to be trying to move back towards fossil fuels. Because in a global economy shifting toward clean energy, returning to fossil fuels may prove a strategic dead end. If renewables become the backbone of 21st‑century growth — as many economists expect — then choosing the old path risks leaving a country stranded while competitors build the industries of the future.

‘The trend is irreversible’: has Romania shattered the link between economic growth and high emissions? | Romania | The Guardian

#romania #USA #fossil fuels #economic growth #global warming #climate change #rewables

Forget the Middle East:Here’s the real crisis to watch out for

With the current tensions in the Middle East flooding the channels, you could be forgiven for thinking that benighted region is the only part of the planet that counts. It isn’t. It soon won’t count for much at all. And once again we are indebted to that most erudite of writers, George Monbiot of the Guardian[1] for telling us why. George has got hold of a report called the UK National Security Assessment, written by some of the sharpest minds in the country- MI5, GCHQ, that lot. And when we say they’re bright, trust us -they are. We won’t deprive you of the pleasure of reading all of George’s article. But the essence is simple: rapidly accelerating climate change is completely upending the normal relationships between nations, and taking us all to a dark and dangerous place

Let’s take one example. The glaciers of the mighty Himalaya-Karakoram system supply the water to some of the largest and most economically important rivers in the world. Among them are the Yangtse, the Mekong, the Brahmaputra and Ganges. All in all, they are the lifeblood of about 2 billion people in some of the world’s most progressive economic areas. And now those glaciers are melting-fast.[2] Leading to both short term floods and long term water shortages. At the moment this region is divided among three major powers_ Pakistan, India and China. All are nuclear-armed. All, being nations will attempt to defend their own local interest and local potentials, for that is what nations do. Each will reach for the water it must have to survive. And sooner or later these interests will clash. Mightily.

Now there will be a temptation among some of our readers, particularly those who hang out in the Dog and Duck, to say “let them get on with it- we can just sit it out” (That is a very polite way of conveying what they will say). But you can’t, gentle readers. As you may have noticed from your History, world wars are like beach parties, they tend to draw everyone in. Powers like Russia the USA and the EU will be forced to choose sides if only to protect their supply chains. Add to that the effects on migration numbers from all those refugees, world prices, supply chains and collapsing currencies and you have a mess to make the financial crash of 2008 look like, like-well one of those beach parties we alluded to above, really. Here then at last will come the consequences of doing nothing serious or substantail about global warming. And it will be well deserved by us all.

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/27/uk-government-report-ecosystem-collapse-foi-national-security?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[2]https://iccinet.org/landmark-report-himalayan-glaciers-disappearing-two-thirds-faster-than-before/

#global warming #himalaya #glacier #ganges #flood #yangtse #drought #China #India #Pakistan #world war three