No Pandemic this time: but what happens next?

While we sympathise with the unfortunate passengers and crew of the MV Hondius who may have been exposed to the hantavirus, our first response was rather selfish; “is this a new pandemic, and if so, how bad will it be?” We were not alone: and fortunately, as this excellent summary article from Julia Musto of the Independent, via MSN, explains: humanity seems to have dodged the bullet this time [1] Although utterly dangerous the virus just doesn’t seem to spread with the same facility as others such as SARS-CoV-2, or the influenza group. So that’s alright then.

Or is it? Because as certain as the House always winning, another pandemic will come along. Bringing the same economic, social and physical disruptions as COVID 19 did back in 2020. Or worse maybe. Surely humanity has learned some lessons from that catastrophe? Taken steps, you might think, to mitigate the worst effects and learn to pool our resources so that next time round everything will be different? Not according to Kat Lay of the Guardian [2] whose indefatigable investigations have unearthed another avoidable catastrophe in the making.

Because although a Pandemic Treaty has been signed , it cannot go into effect until a special clause called a Pabs (Pathogen access and benefits sharing) has been ratified. It hasn’t, as regular readers will be unsurprised to learn. The result is:

“If a new pathogen emerged today, the world remains largely unprepared for it. A lack of action to prevent and prepare for the next pandemic threat is a disservice to humanity,”

Kat cites the usual litany of petty squabbles, mutual jealousies and general misinformations which have led us all into this sorry plight and ends her article there.

But we, gentle readers, cannot quite leave you without adding our own thought. Natural Selection tells us that species go extinct when their key survival features are no longer adequate to their environment (what use are flippers to a whale out of water, for example?) Humanity’s key advantage was its intelligence and relatively large brain. Is this clear example of the failure to use this clear cognitive advantage a sign of even worse things to come?

[1] https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/general/could-cruise-boat-hantavirus-be-the-next-global-pandemic/ar-AA22CAGh?

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/may/05/talks-stall-on-who-pandemic-treaty-global-response-disease-outbreaks?CM

[3] MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak – Wikipedia

#hantavirus #pandemic #covid 19 #WHO #health #medicine #virus

If you want to know why vaccines work, read this

Today we turn our blog over lock, stock and barrel to that admirable website Nature Briefing, whose links we have posted before and will do so again. This main piece from them explains we have done so:

Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases. But for some, that is changing: a second unvaccinated child in Texas died this week from measles. Anti-vaccine misinformation is rampant, not least from members of the administration of US president Donald Trump. Globally, many children still die because they can’t get the immunizations that they should, and cuts to international aid put progress at risk.

At the same time, vaccines are reaching new heights of success: the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine appears to prevent almost all cervical cancers. Vaccines against COVID-19 were developed with unprecedented speed and saved millions of lives. And from a scientific standpoint, the future looks bright, with mRNA technology, unlocked by pandemic-era research, offering hope for new jabs against viruses such as monkeypox, and therapeutic vaccines against cancer.Nature | 6 min read

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.!!!! Please !!!!

The piece follows with some excellent, easy to understand graphics, which you will have to click on their website to look at, and which obviously we can’t reproduce here. To extract some killer facts: by eliminating smallpox, vaccines have saved 5 million lives a year. By eliminating other scourges including measles, tetanus and TB they have probably saved about 154m lives overall since 1975. That anti-vaxxers must now march their legions against HPV vaccines raises deep questions about misogyny as well as the public understanding of science.

But it’s that quote at the beginning of the nature article which as got the hook in us. “Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases.” Yep, it’s that word luxury. It’s often associated with the word Vanity. And we need a bonfire of many of those very soon.

Once again, if you want to see the graphics, do this!

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.

The Next Pandemic: Not if, but when

Wars in Ukraine, Sudan and the Middle East. Falling stock markets. Huge new tariffs on trade. Another season of fires and floods as the Northern Hemisphere warms up to summer. Yes, this is all pretty bad………but we think there is something much worse lurking in the background. This blog was born among the incalculable human and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic back in long-ago 2020. We think another one is on the way. More to the point, our opinion is shared by some much better informed and cleverer people. So we thought we would bring you their thoughts.

Writing for the Conversation [1] the erudite Professor Anthony Staines takes a long cool look at the public health scene. Despite what you might have thought COVID-19 hasn’t really gone away: it’s still killing between 500 and 1000 people a week. Measles is on the uptick as well, especially in countries where vaccination is falling out of fashion. Bird flu is now crossing over both to humans and livestock herds. But the Professor still puts his money on some as yet unkownn virus, or one that is currently flying under the radar.

The prestigious Chatham House Institute[2] serves up a complimentary view as to what this might be. Bird flu is still a strong candidate. But they have a worrying take on the Ebola virus: could some new variant of this be Professor Staines’ unknown candidate? Above all Chatham riff on the mapping studies which might give us some clue. as to where the disease will be triggered. They point to run away urbanisation, deforestation and habitat destruction as key enablers, unleashing new organisms onto populations with no effective resistance at all.

The LSS board has no particular wish to die of Ebola: it’s a horrible way to go. And if it happened to any of you, dear readers, why, we would have lost a friend. Of course we need to respond to what is immediate and tangible, like the price of eggs. But it might be worth pointing out to our leaders that they need to think long term as well.

[1]https://theconversation.com/five-years-after-the-pandemic-the-world-is-poorly-prepared-for-another-one-249906?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20fro

[2]https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/next-pandemic-when-could-it-be

#pandemic #virus #ebola #deforestation #bird flu #vaccination