Gold is King!: Did we actually get something right?

Last October (LSS 26 10 24) we published a fanciful piece which purported to come from June 2025. In it, we suggested that US President Donald Trump had raised tariffs to 60% on China and 20% on the rest of the world. (nah, impossible-ed)The resulting disquiet in the bond markets general loss of confidence in US assets and a fall in the dollar, seriously affected its status as the world’s reserve currency. In such circumstances we couldn’t in all honesty see any alternative to gold as the de facto reserve, with all the obvious disadvantages that brings. You will forgive us a modest cough, gentle readers, if we suggest that our little blog, for all it got wrong, seems oddly prescient if you fast forward( or back) to April 2025, a full month ahead of our crystal ball gazing!

Because the recent IMF report [1] suggests the very dangers to which we so modestly adverted you. are now real. Of course, the IMF is not perfect; it too will have its biases and unconscious assumptions like everyone else. But it is compiled by some of the sharpest and most knowledgeable financial minds on the planet, which is why their arguments should be at least engaged with respect. Which is why one aspect highlighted by the Guardian among others [2] has caused us particular disquiet. The writer points out that in the panic after COVID 19 got going back in March 2020, and the famous “dash for cash” it was only the Fed rescuing the US Treasury that prevented a total rout. However:

The real concern here is not technical dysfunction in treasury markets or the mechanics of the Fed, which are the bedrock of the global financial system. It’s about the politicisation of the monetary-fiscal nexus under a Trumpian regime that is fundamentally hostile to the norms of liberal-democratic governance. When even the dollar is no longer a safe haven, what – or who – can be?

There are signs already that gloom can be overdone. As we write these words, Mr Trump and his acolytes appear to be signalling a weakening of their stand on China. While his latest stance on Ukraine suggests bets on his resolve on any issue may be misplaced. In which case the world may breathe a little more easily. Stocks rose yesterday: and gold has fallen back, a little. We are not economic experts nor financial advisors. But as humble citizens with an eye for History we have to at least ask: how long can the dollar, and US Treasuries stay on top of this sort of thing goes on?

[1]https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/22/the-guardian-view-on-the-imfs-warning-donald-trump-could-cost-the-world-a-trillion-dollars

#donald trump #USA #china #IMF #world trade #gold #bonds #equities #economics

Capturing Carbon from the sea-a new idea to contain global warming

One thing we know for certain: the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere isn’t going down any time soon. Last time we looked, it was about 420ppm, which is 50% higher than it was before the industrial revolution. [1] People are not cutting back fast enough. Natural “sinks” like oceans and forests are being destroyed. And despite all the valiant efforts to replace these natural systems with technologies that capture CO₂ from the burning atmosphere, they are not happening fast enough. We are going to crash through the 1.5^O safe limit. Is there any hope of a short cut which might give us a lifeline?

According to Professor Tom Bell of Exeter University there is indeed. Seawater holds 150 times as much carbon dioxide as air does. And so he and his teams have devised a Cunning Plan to start pulling all the extra deadly gas form the water, and putting it to safe storage. We’ve two versions of the story today. One from Jonah Fisher of the BBC[2] if you’ve only got time for a quick espresso. For the double latte and piece of cake crowd, there’s a really clear set of pages from Exeter University itself.[3] We found the graphics to be rather good on this one.. so give it a go.

All of which brings a wry smile to those of us with long memories. Notice, good reader, how the project is being funded by the UK Government. Back in the 1970’s it used to run hundreds of initiatives like this. Many of which later spun off into successful products which in turn founded the fortunes of many a successful export company. (An elderly member of our Editorial Board can bear personal testimony of this from the world of Forensic Science) Then along came the free marketeers, bleating their mantra “Private sector good; public sector bad” like so many sheep from Animal Farm. You can see the results of that “thinking” in the UK Trade Gap, which has been widening steadily ever since. Professor Bell thinks his project can be scaled to capture 14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. It could be a major industrial and export success for Britain. Surely this one should be left to the pragmatists?

[1]https://www.ibtimes.com/atmospheric-co2-more-50-percent-higher-pre-industrial-era-3529972#:~:text=Concentrations%20of%20carbon%20dioxide%20in%20the%20atmosphere%20in,

[2]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr788kljlklo

[3]https://sites.exeter.ac.uk/seacure/

#global warming #carbon capture #atmosphere #oceans

Gepotidacin marches on

Gentle readers we’re more than happy to present the next chapter in the story of Gepotidacin. Against all the gloom and doom we serve up here, it really is a wonderful new class of antibiotic We have covered it before (LSS 30 1 23 ; 17 4 23) but today Manuel Ansede of El País [1] serves up a handy little resumé, not only of where we are now, where we have come form, and all kinds of hyperlinks to bring you up to speed. We can add little but to such erudition as Manuel’s. But for the sake of long term readers will riff on these few -humbly derived- observations

Firstly, this really is a new class of antibiotic., going by the snappy name of triazaacenaphthylene bacterial topoisomerase inhibitors. Unlike traditional antibiotics that target bacterial cell walls or protein synthesis, gepotidacin disrupts bacterial DNA replication by inhibiting two essential enzymes: DNA gyrase and topoisomerase IV. Which as most readers will instantly recall, are crucial for bacterial DNA replication and cell division. Thought so.

Secondly its already showing real world efficacy against all kinds of bacteria, including antibiotic-resistant strains like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and multidrug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Get that: real science works.

Thirdly, to make our old LSS point: effective action in medicine takes time. It requires teams of intelligent people. Who do not act alone, but exist in an ecosystem of universities . research institutes and government agencies. Which in turn requires careful nurturing , funds and right to feel safe enough to make long term plans without bullying and interference from the proudly ignorant and impulsive. American readers take note.

[1]https://elpais.com/ciencia/2025-04-14/el-primer-antibiotico-descubierto-en-30-anos-llega-justo-a-tiempo-de-evitar-que-la-supergonorrea-sea-imposible-de-tratar.

#gepotidacin #antibiotics #antibiotic resistance #health #medicine

Last Post before Easter

Ah, Easter! The schools are already closed. All the offices and factories and other workplaces will start gong the same way tomorrow as people head off to river, field and beach. We love they way that Easter seems such a bridge between winter and summer. We well remember once (1994) driving down to the West Country in Good Friday sleet. While taking our leave the following Monday under the high bright skies which seemed to promise the summer to come. Which is why Easter, or something like it has been celebrated in the northern hemisphere for thousands of years before Christianity or Judaism, those traditional sources of Easter custom and lore.

However, Easter also brings duties. Among them are visiting people, cooking and above all, gardening. Gardening is about much much more than just keeping everything tidy, or even making nice things grow, Treated right, your garden can be like your gymnasium, especially for those of us who are perhaps not quite so vigorous as we were say twenty or forty years ago. You bend, you stretch, you move around to find things, all in the fresh air. A long day of this, combined with sparse rations, can burn a surprising amount of calories. And all with a visible result at the end!

It is to these ends that we must now devote ourselves, gentle readers. May you and all your friends and families enjoy a pleasant break, and we will see you, back at our mutual intellectual task, shortly thereafter.

THE EDITORS

Feast of Fun: The classic Easter Sunday Roast

Instead if a Friday Feast of Fun, the opportunity to cover an Easter Sunday Lunch was just too mouth-wateringly good to pass up. Frankly, we prefer it to Christmas. It’s less boozy, the food’s lighter with less compulsory extras like puddings and unwanted family members, to name but two, and of course the weather’s better. There’ll be more about why we like Easter in the next blog. In the meantime here are our tips for a very special easter lunch, absolutely in the English style.

Pre dinner drinks: Easter is the time at which it is at last legal and permitted to break out the Pimms, that quintessential English cocktail mixer. Here is our recipe (for one person)from an old blog in 2021, but it works just as well today

Take one measure of Pimm’s No.1 Cup and and add to a highball glass. (Ours have real Pimms logos!) Add 3-4 ice cubes, then 2 slices of lemon, two slices of orange and one chopped strawberry and one slice of cucumber. Top up with lemonade and decorate with a sprig of mint or borage, if you can find the latter.

Entreé We always recommend going light and simple. Salmon or trout, cold with a few olives are good options. For the fish allergic, a nice cold cured meat, perhaps an Iberian Ham or French Saucisson go down well and can sit alongside the Pimms, if you don’t want to sozzle your guests with an early white wine.

Main Course We have been known to serve chicken, and to have served it well. But in these islands Lamb is the traditional centre piece for Easter Sunday. Roast that is, and served up with potatoes and the best spring vegetables. For years we swore by leg. It’s a great joint, and can be made to work more if you have a large number of guests. But once, a little financially embarrassed in Waitrose in Kingston Upon Thames we took the advice of their Meat Man, and tried shoulder, which in theory is the cheaper cut. Frankly, we have never looked back-there are extra levels of flavour and texture which even the best shoulders struggle to match. So to be fair, here are two recipes, both from the BBC which will give you more than a fighting chance of turning out a really memorable experience for your guests

Leg: Mike Robinson https://www.bbc.co.uk/food/recipes/roastlegoflambwithga_90252

Shoulder: Mary Berry https://www.bbc.co.uk/food/recipes/slow_roast_shoulder_lamb_92930

Dessert We could write three blogs here, and that’s only on what’s available from the supermarket. If you’ve treated them well with the first courses, your guests may not want too much. Something to do with strawberries, raspberries and cream might suffice, backed with a range of strong, simple cheeses. Dare we put in a word for some of our rarer British specials like Lancashire, Caerphilly, Wensleydale and Double Gloucester?

Wine At least, on to the serious part of the blog. So-Red, or White? Fortunately we have found a great site called Unravelling Wine, where you can weigh a range of possibilities-Rioja, Chianti, Bordeaux, they seem to have thought of every possible pairing, with all the tasting notes you’ll need. https://unravelingwine.com/lamb-wine-pairing/

Post Prandial Liqueurs The usual. Brandy. Port. Madeira. Strong Coffee. You know the sort of thing. If you have done your work well, your guests should not be too fussy by this stage.

Well, gentle readers we hope that is enough, and more than enough, to ensure that you, your family, your guests and your servants enjoy a real easter blow-out. It was fun writing it, because being on the most savage diet, we are unable to sample any of the delicacies above, even cursorily. But we used to; and that was fun too, while it lasted.

#roast dinner #easter #food #wine

Whatever happens, Donald Trump still matters

President Trump Postlaunch Remarks (NHQ202005300037) by NASA HQ PHOTO is licensed under CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0

As we write these words, President Donald Trump seems to have run into some largely self-inflicted economic troubles. It is hard to say how serious or long lasting these are, and whether they will permanently affect his ability to govern. But one thing is clear: even if he fell from office tomorrow, his significance, his very presence would last for all time. He and his movement are a symptom not a cause. As two articles in the Guardian, one by Richard Partington, and the other by George Monbiot, make clear what has been going on. [1] ]2]

Globalisation, Neo-liberalism, free movement of capital and people, call it what you will, has brought us unprecedented advances in knowledge, and prosperity for billions of people who would otherwise have been excluded from both these things Yet in the countries where the creed began, especially those free market Anglo-Saxon economies of the USA and UK, it has left millions behind. Whose lives rot in the shadow of decaying factories, crumbling roads and decrepit health systems. While lurid images of good times and progress still flit across their screens, their only link to the bright hopeful world beyond. Some, like the educated and the rich are still doing well. Why not them? In such desperate circumstances it is all too easy to start blaming foreigners, global elites, or the tiny fraction who follow divergent sexual practices. And if the educated become an enemy, how will they adopt our values of reason and evidence?

Trump speaks for millions of these people, and that is why his support not only holds up, it may even grow as the crisis gets worse, as George opines. We don’t agree entirely with his analysis: many people we know who hold populist opinions are securely embedded in well funded pensions or established businesses. For us, the roots of xenophobia and self congratulation are far deeper. But the vast spread of uncertainty, insecurity and above all a pervasive sense of dread, the downsides of economic “efficiency” and ergonomic supply chains are the sea in which these emotions thrive. “Socialists do fine until they run out of other peoples’ money” runs the old saloon bar cliche. To which Donald Trump and others would retort “Capitalists do fine until they run out of other people’s security. And jobs. And eventually their nations.

Why did no one ever make a better case for a mixed economy, surely the answer to our problems?

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/13/trump-bullying-must-stop-but-true-costs-globalisation-remain

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/13/trump-populists-human-nature-economic-growth?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

#USA #donald trump #neo liberalism #globalisation #populism #economics #inequality

Three fascinating examples of scientific detective work

Photo by u041bu044eu0441u0438 u0414u0440u0435u043cu0430u043bu043eu0432 on Pexels.com

We have three stories for you this morning. Not only because the stories themselves are intriguing. But because they illustrate the scientific method at its best. Persistence. Careful collection of the data, Thoughtful analysis. And above all this” Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” It’s from the first of today’s features. But it runs like a thread through all of them, and much else that is done by scientists, and all true scholars everywhere. It is of course the antithesis of the claims of conspiracy theorists, hucksters and plain incompetents everywhere.

Floods in the Mediterranean We’ve known the idea that the Mediterranean Sea was once a hot dry basin, a sort of desert land. Until one fine day about five million years ago when a truly humungous great flood burst through the Straits of Gibraltar, turning the whole, thing into that vast lake suitable for swimming, sailing and other watersports which it remains to this day. The proponents of the theory, Daniel Garcia Castellanos and Paul Carling were careful to say this Zanclean Flood was just that, a theory, Until recently they found that the alignment of hills in Sicily. plus the way that rocks of the right age were lying around there, confirmed it nicely. Detective work worthy of Comissario Montalbano, that island’s most famous son!

https://theconversation.com/the-largest-flood-in-earths-history-burst-through-gibraltar-and-sicily-and-refilled-the-entire-mediterranean-in-just-a-few-years-249242?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Lat

Awesome Jaw About 20 years ago, a large ugly looking jaw was dredged up off the coast of Taiwan. No one knew exactly how old it was or how it fitted into the jigsaw of human evolution. Now some incredibly skilful work extracting and analysing proteins from it have revealed it to belong to a Denisovan, that intriguing third branch of modern humanity Here’s Nature Briefing: Mysterious Taiwan Fossil is Denisovan

A fossilized jawbone discovered more than 20 years ago belonged to an ancient group of humans called Denisovans. Named Penghu 1, the jawbone was dredged up by fishing crews 25 kilometres off the west coast of Taiwan. The confirmation that the bone belonged to a Denisovan — the result of more than two years of work to extract ancient proteins from the fossil — expands the known geographical range of the group, from colder, high-altitude regions to warmer climates.Nature | 5 min read
Reference: Science paper

Standoffish Saharans Moving forward from the dawn of humanity to the dawn of agriculture, Chris Melore of the Mail has an intriguing story about the ancient proto-Neolithic populations of North Africa. Careful molecular detective work has revealed that they tended to keep themselves isolated from the population flows across the rest of the world which were happening about 7000 years BP. And this has quite profound implications for how agriculture and herding must have spread. One school has always held that Neolithic techniques were carried as cultural tropes by tribes who migrated out of the fertile crescent (a bit like the way particular European customs and technologies were carried to North America) The other school always held that local people came up with these ideas for themselves, perhaps with a bit of help from conversations with early travellers and traders. This evidence of isolated North Africans invented stock breeding and grazing economies independently is a definite plus for the second school and its ways.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14600327/Newly-mummies-reveal-new-human-ancestor-broke-humanity-thousands-years-ago.html

Careful thoughts, provisional conclusions. This is what we are all about here, and we hope you are too. Perhaps more people could be like this, if they had been given a fairer life. It is a thought we will pursue in the next blog

#neolithic #paleolithic #geology #agriculture #denisovan ##dna #protein

Neural Maps show American Science at its best. But for how much longer?

If you want to explore the potential of a vast unknown region, first make a map of it. This why many of the finest minds from the sixteenth to the nineteenth century were cartographers. The human brain, with its astronomical numbers of circuits and connections, is our century’s equivalent of an unknown continent. Where the prizes( in medical research, pharmaceuticals and lucrative spin off disciplines) will go to those who have the best idea of the layout of the territory they are exploring. Which is why it came as no surprise to find that a multi-university team of American researchers have emerged as some of the foremost neurological cartographers of the year

Hannah Devlin of the Guardian reports the work of the teams from Baylor College, The Allen Institute and Princeton who have combined different techniques to create a 3-D circuit diagram of the neurons in a mouse brain. Now, there are some riders to note: this is only a tiny portion of the brain, comprising 84 000 neurons, half a billion synapses and about 5.4 km of the neuronal equivalent of wiring. Tiny numbers compared to the colossal sizes of a human brain, or that of an elephant or a dolphin. But it’s a start. Hannah quotes experts who honestly compare this work to the human genome project around the turn of the century. We need not remind readers as intelligent as ours of all the potential which that unlocked.

So: American researchers at the cutting edge. Princeton. Big research teams. “Yawn,” they said in the newsroom, “Where’s the story?” Well the story lies in the context of the consistent cuts in science funding by a certain Donald J Trump and his Administration. [2] It’s not just the money, it’s the attacks on the confidence and independence of the institutions themselves which stunt the development of a healthy research sector. And ultimately kill the goose which has laid so many eggs.(please-no more cliches!-ed) From the 1930s onwards America thrived by taking in the best researchers, and letting them work at what they excelled. Every science magazine you picked up, every episode of the old Horizon series on BBC, had an American somewhere in it. They even got to the Moon. Now there is a real danger that all that talent, all that potential will flow elsewhere. So far the EU and UK have not really go their act together. But they are waking up to the opportunity. Perhaps the first whole-brain maps will be made in Cambridge. The English one, that is.

with thanks to J Read

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/apr/09/us-scientists-create-most-comprehensive-circuit-diagram-of-mammalian-brain

[2] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-administration-attacks-on-science-trigger-backlash-from-researchers/

#neurology #princeton #research #donald j trump #science #biology #brain

If you want to know why vaccines work, read this

Today we turn our blog over lock, stock and barrel to that admirable website Nature Briefing, whose links we have posted before and will do so again. This main piece from them explains we have done so:

Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases. But for some, that is changing: a second unvaccinated child in Texas died this week from measles. Anti-vaccine misinformation is rampant, not least from members of the administration of US president Donald Trump. Globally, many children still die because they can’t get the immunizations that they should, and cuts to international aid put progress at risk.

At the same time, vaccines are reaching new heights of success: the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine appears to prevent almost all cervical cancers. Vaccines against COVID-19 were developed with unprecedented speed and saved millions of lives. And from a scientific standpoint, the future looks bright, with mRNA technology, unlocked by pandemic-era research, offering hope for new jabs against viruses such as monkeypox, and therapeutic vaccines against cancer.Nature | 6 min read

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.!!!! Please !!!!

The piece follows with some excellent, easy to understand graphics, which you will have to click on their website to look at, and which obviously we can’t reproduce here. To extract some killer facts: by eliminating smallpox, vaccines have saved 5 million lives a year. By eliminating other scourges including measles, tetanus and TB they have probably saved about 154m lives overall since 1975. That anti-vaxxers must now march their legions against HPV vaccines raises deep questions about misogyny as well as the public understanding of science.

But it’s that quote at the beginning of the nature article which as got the hook in us. “Vaccines have given many families in wealthy nations the luxury of forgetting about the toll of some infectious diseases.” Yep, it’s that word luxury. It’s often associated with the word Vanity. And we need a bonfire of many of those very soon.

Once again, if you want to see the graphics, do this!

Please add briefing@nature.com to your address book.

Is Donald Trump a Socialist?

Is Donald Trump a socialist, or is he just governing like one? For a man who made his money in the freewheeling and dealing Manhattan property market, it seems an odd term to use. And doubtless he and his supporters would reject it vehemently. But let’s go back to first principles and look at what he does, not what he says.

The very essence of a socialist policy is that an economy should not be run by free market methods. It can and should be run on others, designed to support the welfare of all the groups living in it. If they are poor, money must be found through taxes to alleviate that. If their communities depend on certain industrial conglomerations. such as steel making for example, then money must be found to sustain those industries, to avert the social damage which would ensue/ In Britain the key exponents of this view were people like Arthur Scargill and Tony Benn, who felt public money should be found to support the mining industries, even if those industries operated at less than optimum economic efficiency. In the 1970s Benn went further, suggesting a siege economy protected by tariffs as an alternative to joining the European Community, forerunner of the EU.

The alternative view was pioneered by thinkers such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo. The unhindered operation of free markets, with the lowest possible levels of tax and tariff would facilitate the best possible social outcome. Ricardo developed this in his theory of comparative advantage. By which countries or regions specialising in different products would trade in these to their mutual benefit. His example was Britain and Portugal, which mutually traded manufactured goods and port wine. The same principle holds today.

The key political exponents of this view were Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, whose most memorable declaration was “you can’t buck the markets”. As we write, Mr Trump’s policies seem to be doing exactly that. Unlike others, we judge him to have an honesty of purpose: he is trying to protect the communities that voted for him. Communities whose social structure and very identity depend on the old smokestack industries around which they cluster. Time will tell if he will be successful. But two things worry us. Firstly even if factories are attracted back to the rustbelt, it is unlikely that modern automated plants will need many factory hands. And second: the last twenty years or so of the Communist bloc were spent trying to keep these same sort of plants going. History did not judge that enterprise kindly.

#free markets #socialism #communism #adam smith #david ricardo #margaret thatcher #donald trump #united states of america