Is all the money in the world running out?

Is the United States of America about to go bust, the way that previous empires like Spain and Britain did? Critics point to astronomical levels of government debt ( it’s now a whopping 123% of GDP) and ballooning trade deficits. Exactly the opposite to the US position just over one hundred years ago when it elbowed aside Great Britain to make Uncle Sam the dominant world player. “Ah”, counter the critics” if you have the world’s reserve currency you can issue as much debt as you like. And the fact that America has independent institutions makes its bonds the safest bet in the world for foreign investors”. So-no problem then? Perhaps. The trouble with debt is that it’s OK until it isn’t. As interest rates start to rise (as they have been doing for some time) the rising costs crowd out all sorts of fiscal flexibility. Especially on crucial issues like defence, health and education. As for the United States much vaunted institutions- recent events have put their independence in very great doubt indeed. [1]

But before we heap all the opprobrium on poor old America, don’t forget everyone else is doing it too, Japan is running debt at an eye watering 250% of GDP: while in France things are so bad , there are even rumours that they are flirting with an IMF bailout[2] If stalwarts such as they are in such deep trouble, what hope for less prosperous nations? The answer, chillingly, is not much. According to a report by Schroders [3] the levels of sovereign debt around the world are so high that they represent a real risk to future investment, growth and healthy trade. In effect the repayments will come to stifle most normal economic activity. Though the authors are careful not to go quite this far, what worries us is that if this activity slows, then there may be a real risk that many nation states may become structurally unable to ever repay their debt. If sovereign bond markets cease to function there is no real stable credit, In effect. all the money in the world has run out. The political, social and military consequences of that would be interesting indeed.

[1]https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/29/economy/trump-fed-turkey-argentina

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/27/france-on-the-brink-political-crisis-economic-francois-bayrou

[3]https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/institutional/insights/sovereign-debt-dynamics-the-alarming-backdrop-to-rising-geopolitical-risk/

#sovereign debt #USA #japan #france #economics #finance

There will never be a sound-bite answer to what causes autism

Not our words, but those of Helen Tager-Flusberg a psychologist and expert on neurological conditions at Boston University inn the United States. Wise words indeed. Read this from Nature Briefing what we know about autism:

A claim by US health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr that “an environmental toxin” is responsible for autism has worried many researchers and autism groups, who say it seems to ignore what’s already known about the condition. Decades of research suggests that genetics plays a huge part, although parental age, infections during pregnancy and a string of other environmental factors have also been linked to autism. “There will never be a sound-bite answer to what causes autism,” says psychologist Helen Tager-Flusberg. Meanwhile, the increasing prevalence of autism is predominantly caused by an increase in diagnoses rather than a true rise in underlying traits.Nature | 12 min read [1]

What we know. Humble words in a way. Especially in world where the deeply unhumble fill the internet and newspaper columns with shrieking headlines about what they think they know. Even set out on demonstrations carrying placards, as if emotion and wishful thinking could somehow override the basic facts of science and the laws of logical deduction. We live in an age where emotion now seems to be trumping clear thinking on every subject at every turn. But for the benefit of the few of you left who still believe in intelligence and logic we offer these questions, as they mark the limits of our own knowledge, and everyone else’s.

1 Is there a single condition called “autism”? Or does the word mask several different underlying conditions?

2 If there is a genetic cause, what is its heritability?

3 Are epigenetic factors also involved? If so how can they be measured?

4 Is there a single underlying causal factor?

5 What are the statistical probabilities that factors such as the age of the parents, prevalence of environmental toxins and types of diet play a role in producing diagnoses?

6 Did the change in diagnostic criteria in the 1990s change the prevalence in reported cases of the condition?

7 Why are their two different diagnostic systems anyway? (DSM and ICD) Ok, this is a personal peeve, but it could be affecting the data.

Autism is a neuralgic issue because it touches so many emotions: guilt, fear, anxiety, unknowing, shame and the overwhelming need for a cause to hate and blame. The attempts to grapple with it lie right on the edge of the limits of human skill and technique. Which means there can be no easy answers and no cure any time soon. COVID-19 it isn’t. But LSS prides itself on being a truth telling blog and the truth right now is that we just don’t know. Distrust anyone who dooes.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-02636-1?utm_source=Live+Audience&utm_campaign=a6bc173c35-nature-briefing-daily-20250827&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b27a691814-

#autism spectrum disorder #neurology #genetics #epigenetics #environment #diagnoses

Round Up: Trumponomics, Wind Farms, AIDS and Depeche Mode. Among other things

Donald Ducks out of the Free Market Any questions you might have about the leftward drift of Mr Trump’s economic policies are only confirmed as he starts trying to take control of interest rates and large companies like Lockheed Martin. We’ve two pieces here: the Guardian and NSBC which riff on both themes. Watch the video in the latter: it features economist Gillan Tett, as formidable an intellect as any currently offering their thoughts in the serious media at the moment .

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/25/trump-federal-reserve-lisa-cook-explained

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85N6X5jvK9g

Contemplating, Celebrating New Life #1 Creating entirely new life forms was once a dream of the more outre writers of Science Fiction. Now it seems very real indeed as this piece from the Mail, which has enormous implications for many fields from Medicine to astrobiologyBreakthrough as scientists create a new form life | Daily Mail Online

New pill aids HIV sufferers Once again our researchers have put up a piece from the Mail . But bloggers can’t be choosers, so we ran with it. This is no cure: but it keeps the virus at bay and so help thousands lead healthier and more productive lives Monthly pill brings hope in fight against world’s deadliest STI

The Heat is on An unexpected side effect of global warming is that it may be making us age faster. There’s an irony here: as most of the deniers fall into the -erm- ahem- more senior- sections of the population this may only impede efforts to control this runaway catastrophe Heatwaves make a Biological Clock Run Fast from Nature Briefing

Repeated exposure to extreme heat events can accelerate the body’s ageing process. A long-term study of almost 25,000 people in Taiwan found that, for every extra 1.3 ℃ a person was exposed to, around 0.023–0.031 years was added to their biological clock on average — an extent comparable to that caused by regular smoking or alcohol consumption. The effect looks small, but cumulatively “can have meaningful public-health implications”, says environmental epidemiologist and study co-author Cui Guo. “Heatwave is not a personal risk factor, but a global concern,” she says. Nature | 4 min read
Reference: Nature Climate Change paper

Fearing the winds of change Peoples’ stated beliefs and opinions are often a guide to their deeper anxieties. A world view based on hyperconsumption and fossil fuels is now seriously archaic. This explains the deep angst ridden controversies that swirls around wind farms: they are huge visible reminder that we’ve been getting things seriously wrong for over one hundred years Here’s The Conversation

https://theconversation.com/why-wind-farms-attract-so-much-misinformation-and-conspiracy-theory-262192?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversati

Contemplating Celebrating New Life-#2 You knew we were going to chose this one, didn’t you? Yes- Depeche Mode it is

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=depeche+mode+new+life&&mid=69CC976ED9B5100BA5C669CC976ED9B5100BA5C6&&FORM=VRDGA

#gillian #tett #economics #federal reserve #socialism #capitalism #biology #dna #HIV #AIDS #renewables #global warming #climate change

Gut Health/Mental health: the evidence is slowly accumulating

No it wasn’t us who thought of this first. It was a piece in that brilliant mag New Scientist which first gave us this jaw-dropping moment. There may be a link between the digestive system-what we eat, how we prepare it and what else lives in it-and mental health. Maybe, just may be the researchers in this frontier field may be on the edge of finding causal mechanisms for some mental disorders. Some at least. We have started to cover this topos (don’t you love that word?)in several blogs since 2022, with growing enthusiasm. In this spirit we present this latest from Nature Briefing A gut feeling about mental health

Preliminary evidence suggests that nurturing the gut microbiota could help to resolve depression and anxiety, whether through faecal transplant, probiotics or diet. Two 2016 studies showed that transferring faecal matter from someone with depression into rodents gave the animals depression-like behaviors. “This is not how we’d thought about mental illness, as something that can be transferred the way you could catch measles,” says psychiatrist Valerie Taylor. Now researchers are working to untangle how the microbiota influence various human illnesses throughout the gut-brain axis — including effects on the immune system, the vagus nerve and the enteric nervous system.Nature Outlook | 12 min read
This editorially independent article is part of Nature Outlook: The human microbiome, a supplement produced with financial support from Yakult.

But we stress several things. Firstly, it’s early days. All too often people get carried away by excitement, and lose their grip on evidence and reason. But LSS staff and readers are above the level of mental level of conspiracy theory enthusiasts! Correlation does not prove causation, we say gentle readers. That said, the earnest and thorough research around things like neural super highways, neurotransmitter production, microbiome and mood and faecal microbiota transplants has excited our curiosity to the utmost. Next time you see one of those poor devils on the street, their life wrecked by mental disorder, think this: is their hope that one day, at least, this may never happen again?

#mental health #gut #microbiome #digestive system #schizophrenia #blood brain barrier

Is Donald Trump A socialist? It’s really about tariffs

A few months ago we published a little blog(LSS 7 4 25) in which we wryly suggested that the policies of Donald Trump. especially on trade tariffs, more resembled those of socialists like Tony Benn than those of classic right wingers like Ronald Reagan. Our aim was less with ideology and more with practical matters: will the tariffs work? We even pointed out that, with advances in automated techniques like AI, it was pretty unlikely that huge numbers of jobs would be created in manufacturing, even if the tariffs really did change the pattern of trade in the way Mr Trump desires.

It’s view shared by professional economists of some standing, as this article by Steven Greenhouse for the Guardian points out. For example Ann Harrison of UC Berkeley, not only shares our thoughts on the automation thing. She also points out that to be successful, tariffs need steady application over decades. Trump’s wildly erratic “they’re on. they’re off” approach seriously impedes investment planning. And how long has he got anyway? Would a successor-perhaps JD Vance or a younger member of the Trump dynasty-have the same approach? While Michael Strain of the impeccably right wing American Enterprise Institute worries that all these tariffs will simply raise costs for most US manufacturers – a serious own goal if ever there was one. The various experts raise other questions too. Will the so called pledges of investment from other nations really materialise? Will the tariffs create an archaic automobile industry based on petrol, hopelessly unable to sell a single unit to a world which has long since moved on to electric? Frankly, are tariffs high enough to achieve their stated purpose(yes, that surprised us too) But all of these are laid out in Steven’s excellent article.

Tariffs are like many things. Sometimes they’re good and sometimes they’re not. If they were all good, then every nation would set them at 100%. If they were all bad, they would have been abolished long ago. The real mistake is to implement a good idea with insufficient care and attention. Now that really does resemble many socialist regimes of the past.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/18/trumps-tariffs-manufacturing-resurgence-jobs

#donald trump #socialism #capita;ism #tariifs #trade #economics #american enterprise institute

World Government v Nation State: why one reader thinks we’re wrong

Starting in January this year, we published a series of blogs in which we suggested that the Nation State was no longer a viable tool to solve all our problems. Whereby, ergo, only a World Government could address all the world’s real ills. (LSS 8 1 25 et seq; see especially 22 1 25) It’s a tempting thought. But one very astute reader has written in with an opinion, which, frankly, takes us right back to the drawing board. Once again, we are forced to protect their identity and even, they implore, where they live. But here are their thoughts: and they are thought provoking indeed.

While I appreciate the ambition behind calls for a world government, I must respectfully dissent. The brave resistance of the Ukrainian people offers a stark reminder: only a nation-state — with its shared history, language, and civic identity — can summon the kind of loyalty required to stand firm against tyranny.

Ukraine didn’t rally under the banner of abstract globalism. It rallied as a nation. Farmers, teachers, coders, and pensioners took up arms not for humanity in general, but for their homeland in particular. That kind of visceral commitment — rooted in place, memory, and sovereignty — is precisely what a supranational bureaucracy cannot replicate.

Yes, the world faces problems that transcend borders. But dissolving the nation-state risks dissolving the very glue that binds people to collective action. Let’s not forget: resistance begins with belonging.

True. That’s all we have to say. Except it’s back to square one for us at LSS. It’s getting to be a habit.

#world government #nation #country #sovereignty #freedom #tyranny #ukraine #russia

Best Time to be alive: California 1960-1980

California dreaming. A tumultuous, fractal, sub-infinite series of images. Deep green forests and rugged mountains. Sun-drenched coasts with surfers riding unfeasibly large waves. Burning deserts and fertile valleys. Vast sprawling townscapes scattered with deep blue pools linked suburb to suburb by enormous, mustang-filled freeways. UCLA. Berkeley. All those funny people camped out in VWs around Mt Shasta. La Jolla and the Scripps Institute, Everything the good life could be, democratically arrived at, and mass produced for ordinary people. Which made this State, in the peak years 1960-1980 the cultural and social centre of the world. Our hope, our dream, our shimmering light.

It was defence that caused California to boom as the USA began its long tilt towards the Pacific after 1945. The US Government’s act of undeclared Keynesianism funded Cold War icons such as Lockheed (Burbank) North American (Inglewood) McDonnell Douglas(Santa Monica, Long Beach), Hughes(Culver City) and Northrop (Hawthorne). As the money flowed through these companies and out the other side, it funded not only the great learning institutions, but also one of the most comfortable and agreeable lifestyles that had ever been known. Everyone, potentially, was in, although if you were black or Hispanic, your share of the pot was going to be much, much smaller. Hollywood, to its credit, was self-funding. But its endless output of iconic films and TV shows afforded the USA a soft power capability that was equal to at least ten carrier battle groups. All of this in turn grew the next generation of industry: Information, games and now AI. For this was a culture built not on oil, or gold or military power, but in the last resort on brains. In places, it still is.

You will by now, gentle reader, have intuited your own huge list of favourite films, TV shows, books popular musical singers, foods and brands which are your California. Yet it is poets who see most clearly, capturing the distilled essence of time and place most of all when they set their thoughts to music. Those poets were Eagles Don Henley and Glenn Frey, whose songs such as Tequila Sunrise, Hotel California, The Last Resort and others managed to capture the crazy contradictory kaleidoscope of hopes, dreams, indulgences and despairs in a land and place at the leading edge of our species’ experience. Perhaps the shimmering light it is now growing dim. . But for us the word “California” carries the hope that somewhere out there still lies the possibility of a prosperous, future.

#california #cold war #JM Keynes # The Eagles #Los Angeles #hollywood

Heroes of Antibiotics: Liam Shaw and his Dangerous Miracle

Today, gentle readers, we combine two of the favourites topos of this blog: Heroes of Learning and Antibiotics research latest. For Liam Shaw is a mighty contributor in both fields. Who is he? Well here is a brief summary of his life ant times from Penguin Books, the publishers of his book Dangerous Miracle: (which of course we urge you to rush out and buy) [1]

Liam Shaw is a biologist researching the evolution and spread of antibiotic resistance. For the past four years he has been a Wellcome funded research fellow at the University of Oxford, and he is also currently an honorary research fellow at the University of Bristol.
His writing has appeared in the London Review of Books, Morning Star, and Private Eye. Dangerous Miracle is his first book.

That’s quite a CV for a very learned man, and we take all he says most seriously indeed. So seriously in fact that we direct your earnest attention to his further thoughts laid out in this admirable article which he has just penned for the Guardian[2] For Liam has a key insight: antibiotics are like fossil fuels. They are OK in themselves: they may even bring great benefits to the comfort and quality of our lives. But both have fallen into the hands of a group of reckless, short term, pleasure seeking, greedy, violent hominins that call themselves Homo sapiens ( a laughable act of vanity) with all the disastrous consequences we face today. Rather wickedly, he points out the hypocrisy of rich nations, who have benefitted so abundantly from a surplus of both fossil fuels and antibiotics now earnestly entreating the poorer nations of the world to be good chaps and cut down on their use. Nice one!

We at LSS still think there is room for hope on the antibiotics question, as out recent blogs have hinted. If the situation has indeed improved since we started, much is due to the work of Liam, Professor Sally Davies and others whose tireless research and campaigning has done so much to slow the decline and possibly turn us around. But we can see no reason to slack up yet, gentle readers. Neither should you.

[1]https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/455232/dangerous-miracle-by-shaw-liam/9781847927545

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/aug/17/why-antibiotics-are-like-fossil-fuels

#microbial antibiotic resistance #medicine #health #microbiology #fossil fuels #global warming #pandemic

Friday Night: Madeira Wine

When we sat down to prepare this week’s Friday article, one of our researchers suggested” why don’t you do Madeira wine?” Which created rather a problem: How can we praise Madeira wines without sounding like one of those articles you find among the pages of in-flight magazines or tourist guides, which seem increasingly to have been written by something other than a human intelligence?

Our first decision was let the experts do the heavy lifting. on subjects such as heritage, production, availability and so on. We have posted two links here, one to the Wine Society[1] and a second to the indefatigable Blandys [2], more of whom below. There are actually many types of wine produced on this famous subtropical island: But the sort everyone talks about, the eponymous Madeira is a fortified wine which comes in four types Sercial, Verdelho, Boal and Malvasia. And the angle we want to take is history, not of the wine which our links cover, but of our own first experience of it when we visited the Madeira wine lodge, still run by the Blandy family in Funchal, 34 long years ago

We will not detain you long with the excellence of the place, the helpfulness of the guides nor the dark wood beams and casks, the rich aroma of grape, all of which are the same today. Rather it was our arrival, post tour, at the tasting session, where we learned that not only does the wine come in four types(see above) but that each type was produced by one of four traditional families: Blandy’s , Cossart Gordon, Miles and Leacock. A truly scientific tasting would therefore require an array of 16 (4×4) glasses, as any expert in the mathematics of set theory could quickly tell you. What we had not realised was the potential wallop carried by even a small glass of the stuff. With the result that our tasting rapidly descended into a blur of ill-remembered labels, mixed tastes, and a growing feeling of confused tiredness inconducive to sustained intellectual effort. Eventually our companion was forced to take us to recover in a nearby park with some friendly swans upon its lake. Which kept us pretty well occupied until her return from some serious shopping.

And the moral is? Blandy’s Wine Lodge is a first rate tourist spot, which you must visit if you are ever on the island. Madeira wine is delicious, but strong. We have visited the lodge often on our subsequent six voyages to the island. But now a single glass, often the the slightly sweet Bual, is more than enough to content us. . But we steadfastly urge you to try one too.

[1]https://www.thewinesociety.com/discover/explore/regional-guides/madeira-ultimate-guide

[2] https://blandys.com/en/about-madeira-wine/?doing_wp_cron=1755271440.1276309490203857421875

#Madeira #Blandys #tourism #wine #holiday

AI-designed antibiotics: more good news to report

This is getting to be a habit. About a year ago we showcased a story about the redoubtable Professor de la Fuente and his team at the University of Pennsylvania who were starting to use AI for the development of new antibiotics. (LSS 6 6 2024). Since when our optimism has been justified seven fold over and seven, to coin a phrase. For today we are genuinely excited to bring you this story from James Gallagher of the BBC which takes things up to the next stage. [1]

Because another redoubtable Professor, one James Collins and his team at MIT have now used AI not only to identify potential new antibiotics, but also to synthesise them and prepare them for testing. What’s more, they’re going to try them out on MRSA and gonorrhoea, two recalcitrant old lags which have long frustrated researchers, as our long term readers will recall

The story ticks quite a few more LSS boxes with institutions like Imperial College and the Fleming Fund getting quotes. At last, things seem to be coming together. When we started our antibiotics obsession, ten long years ago, we foresaw the current civilisation collapsing under unstoppable plagues, just like the Roman one before us did. But if it does, it may not be for lack of new antibiotics: we feel we can say that much now. Plenty of lethal threats still confront us, from Global warming to the threat of nuclear war. And the recent collapse of the talks designed to limit plastic pollution is a shameful reminder of the cognitive limits of our species..[2] But: just occasionally, something can be done about something. Maybe that’s hope , for all we know.

[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgr94xxye2lo

[2]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgpddpldleo

#artificial intelligence #antibiotics #antibiotic resistance #MRSA #MIT