Why the twenty-five year mortgage is the best way to fight crime

A recent episode of the Channel 4 documentary Twenty-Four Hours in Police Custody produced a gamut of strong reactions.[1] Some cite factors such as “pure evil”, “Sociopathy” and the like. Others blame what they call “proletarian culture” with its supposed emphasis on “swaggering masculinity” and “instant gratification.” None of the above experts have ever defined what those terms mean.

There are indeed some sociopaths and psychopaths out there. Yet in our experience most people are a bundle of conflicting, competing impulses and thoughts. Some of these include aggression and status anxiety. Others include thought, and even compassion. What made this case in Bedfordshire so interesting[2] was that, for a short while, the aggressive instincts of the two convicted murderers were so strong, and lasted sufficiently long, for them to change five lives. Forever. Catastrophically. An ordinary fist-fight in a pub was suddenly escalated by one set of protagonists into double murder. Why?

There is nothing like the feeling of having something now, with the promise of future reward, to caution the wildest impulses. These somethings can be many: a happy emotional relationship, a family, the possession of property. The last, if tied to a long mortgage with the promise of a big pay-out at the end forms a prominent part of the mental architecture of millions. Its presence has dampened the ardour for many a conflict-or sexual adventure. The trouble with Britain since 2010 is that home ownership has gone into steep decline. Mortgages are harder and harder to come by. Where people live with less stake in society, is any surprise they look to other sources for pride? Like their place in the hierarchy? How much “respect” they can obtain(by which they mean fear-for them, the two terms are synonymous) None of this excuses the actions of the murderers in Bedfordshire. But in a fairer society, might such escalations be a bit less common?

[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-67897484

[2]https://www.channel4.com/programmes/24-hours-in-police-custody/on-demand/73855-009

#status anxiety #home ownership #houghton regis bedordshire #inequality #crime #violence #status anxiety

When AI met Archaeology

Photo by Michael Giugliano on Pexels.com

There’s nothing like a breakthrough, when a long delayed problem that no one could crack, suddenly yields to fresh thought. And opens the door to a vast potential new field of learning. Which is why this news from Nature Briefings has been such fun to read in itself, as well as digging into its juicy link article , which, by the way, is eminently readable. Essay on Pleasure revealed in Ancient Scroll

Student researchers have used machine learning to read text hidden inside charred, unopenable scrolls from the ancient Roman city of Herculaneum. The newly revealed passages discuss sources of pleasure including music, the colour purple and the taste of capers. The team trained an algorithm on tiny differences in texture where the ink had been, based on three-dimensional computed tomography scans of the scrolls.Nature | 7 min read

The point for us is this bringing together of two highly disparate disciplines. If archaeologists had said ”please give us enormous sums to crack the problem of the Herculaneum scrolls” someone would, very politely, have told them to go take a walk. And we take a safe guess that the principal interests of AI folk are directed towards finance, pharmaceuticals and physics. It’s when the two are brought together, serendipitously, that we see this marvellous synergy, this sum becoming worth infinitely more than its parts.

And what synergy! For all the many learned books which have been written about it, our knowledge of the Ancient World is actually rather limited. Even authors like Plato and Eratosthenes have only survived in a few, fragmentary texts. The same is true of many early Christian writings. There is only one fragment of the New Testament from before 150 AD, and its tiny. [1]The new CT technique could potentially decipher thousands of fragmentary or badly preserved texts. As our database suddenly grows, we may well find some startling new insights. Or old LSS doctrine that research money spent in one field will pay off in many seems to be vindicated once again. Time for a very smug cup of coffee. No biscuits.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Testament_papyri

#archaeology #CT #AI #scrolls #herculaneum #greeks #romans #christians #jews

Beat the winter gloom with two great stories on cancer

There’s something about the dark and cold of February that chills like no other month we know. But do not be disheartened, gentle readers! For today we offer not one, but two stories that promise hope, optimism, and , who knows, maybe even a long term cure for the terrible disease of cancer. So, without further ado:

Welsh Wizard You may have heard of Duran Duran, but what about Sir Christopher Evans? According to Maria Lally of the Independent, [1] Sir Christopher has been on the trail of a cancer cure since he was six years old, when his family in Port Talbot bought him his first chemistry set. Not only has he been working with Andy Taylor, a key member of Duran Duran. but he and his organisation are at the forefront of research, pioneering new techniques such as Lutetium-177. In an age of selfish aggression and violence, it’s nice to come across someone who has devoted his time to the public good!

Rwanda hope Cervical cancer is a deadly killer, blighting lives and quashing the hopes of millions. One sure way to eliminate it is better vaccines. But how to get a vaccine programme underway in world full of ignorant superstition, where all the money is spent on armaments and SUV motor cars? One country showing the way ahead is the plucky little East African State of Rwanda who realised the solution was social, not medical. To quote Nature, [1] the key insight was

As Rwanda shows, strong, trustworthy and reliable collaboration between all stakeholders is key

For us, the key concept is stakeholder. Get everyone onside, and you’ll be amazed what you can achieve. Degrading, despising and turning people into others is the sure way to fail. In anything.

So before you utterly surrender to the late winter blues, here are two stories to show that someone, somewhere out there is refusing to bend. And, maybe, Spring is just around the corner after all.

[1]https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/top-cancer-specialist-explains-why-it-s-time-to-rethink-what-stage-4-means/ar-BB1hKxsp?cvid=30ca68cc771a4e11a5de2db2c08c992c

[2]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00241-2?utm_source=Live+Audience&utm_campaign=5093011eda-briefing-dy-20240202&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ (via Nature briefings)

#cancer #medicine #celsis #cancer awareness trust

Air Pollution: what’s the worst bit?

We do quite a lot of pollution stories here. Too much carbon dioxide and methane are wrecking the climate. Too much sewage is turning the seas toxic. But there’s one area we haven’t covered enough. The effect of air pollution directly on our lungs. According to the latest report from the UK Government (which, after 14 years of Conservative rule can hardly be a bastion of woke tofu-eating commie liberals):

Epidemiological studies have shown that long-term exposure to air pollution (over years or lifetimes) reduces life expectancy, mainly due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Short-term exposure (over hours or days) to elevated levels of air pollution can also cause a range of health impacts, including effects on lung function, exacerbation of asthma, increases in respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions and mortality.[1]

It is estimated that air pollution in the UK may be causing up to 36000 excess deaths per year.

The combined effects of all those cars, lorries, aeroplanes, factories, fossil fuel power stations and goodness-knows-what-else, produce quite a cocktail of potentially deadly things for us to breathe. But most experts agree that the Two Big Killers are particulate matter, the so-called PM_n series and nitrates, mainly NO₂. But which is worse? If we got rid of PM_2.5 for example, would the NO₂ still be murdering us? An ingenious study by Joshua Bateman and Martin Clift, reported in the Conversation, seems to suggest an answer. The researchers have created laboratory models of the alveolar epithelium, the key tissue of the human lung which interacts with the atmosphere. For the first time it was possible to expose these cells to different levels of pollutants, both singly and together.

The results suggest the Two Big Killers are at their worst when they act together. And this has a important implications in the struggle for clean air. Just like early attempts to reduce smoking, attempts to clean up the air have run into enormous resistance, which can be bolstered by generous funding from various interest groups which seem to have little interest in clean air. Might it be possible to concentrate first on reducing one of the Big Two Killers first? That would not save as many lives as eliminating both. But it is a much more achievable, and feasible, start.

[1]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-matters-air-pollution/health-matters-air-pollution

[2]https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-we-recreated-the-deepest-sections-of-your-lung-in-a-laboratory-to-understand-how-polluted-air-can-affect-your-health-2220

#nitrates #particulate matter #air pollution #cancer #cardio vascular disease

The Day John Stuart Mill read our blog

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A couple of days ago we published a little blog which tried to kick around ideas like “is it right to ban things like alcohol?” (Will the real Conservative Party please stand up, LSS 30 1 24) One reader was the great political thinker John Stuart Mill. (he must have read it pretty early, because he died in 1873). However ,we know he did so it because today he popped up on Radio 4, ably assisted by Amol Rajan and Nick Robinson in one of their ingenious podcasts. A podcast which riffs on the very same theme-the Nanny State. [1]

Without raking over the same ground as Monday, we are going to give you a few more ideas on further reading, which also allows us to correct a terrible blunder we made on Monday (apologies to Adam Smith Institute-we messed up their hyperlink) And then just leave you with a few questions [2] [3] [4]

Given that cannabis and caffeine are psychoactive substances, why is right to restrict the sale of one, and allow the almost unlimited distribution of the other?

Does a State have a duty to protect its citizens?

If a free market comprising private individuals is the surest way to general prosperity, is any attempt to restrict it wrong?

If personal freedom and liberty are the ultimate good, should individuals have the right to invest and work where they choose?

Does the State have a role in promoting best economic outcome?

Is the state a community bound by laws, or an association of the most powerful people in a society?

If a State has some role to play in the general good, who decides where is the correct limit of its actions?

Are laws restricting the free sale of cannabis an example of the nanny state?

Are laws restricting immigration an example of the nanny state?

Are laws restricting working hours an example of the nanny state?

If you answered “don’t know” to any of the above, go back and try again.

[1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001vskd

[2] https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/eight-reasons-to-legalise-cannabis (this was the one we failed on Monday-sorry!)

[3] The Conservative paradox John Gray New Statesman 31 1 24

[4] The surprising truth about Nanny State Britain James Kirkup Spectator 30 1 24

#jonn stuart mill #nanny state #bbc #new statesman #spectator #taxation #immigration

Will the real Conservative Party please stand up?

In his masterwork Reflections on the Revolution in France, Conservative philosopher Edmund Burke identified the dangers of fast, uncontrolled change.[1] He also laid out the well-run, well- policed state as the only basis for a secure and prosperous life. The imperfection of human nature required that all should be safeguarded from each other. That in turn requires armies, police forces, and where necessary laws to safeguard the existing moral and social order. It is an honourable tradition; the experience of the French Revolution showed that it worked. And many contemporary Conservatives can site it- justifiably, for example in the restriction or even prohibition of seriously dangerous substances, such as alcohol, nicotine or cocaine. And for this reason, millions of ordinary, decent Conservative voters trust only this party to restrict the highly dangerous, possibly addictive drug cannabis. Read the Daily Mail if you don’t believe us.

Which is why it seems odd at first site that former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss should seem so opposed to a Conservative Government’s attempt to restrict the sale of vapes. [2] The explanation is, of course, that Truss belongs to a second Conservative tradition. That free markets are the only certain guarantee of human happiness. That restrictions and red tape are not only the sure brakes on enterprise, they are an immoral intrusion on the freedom of the individual. Again, an honourable tradition, rooted essentially in the works of Smith, Ricardo and Hayek. And proved right in the experience of the Russian Revolution and the tragic, genocidal decades which followed it. Which is why think tanks like the Adam Smith Institute advocate the legalisation of cannabis [3] Impeccably Conservative-well they were such inspirations not only for Truss, but for her predecessor Margaret Thatcher as well.

For any law, however much it claims to be for the public good, is also Red Tape. Any regulation is a restriction on someone’s freedom somewhere. To exalt the monarchy, as many Conservatives do, is at once to exalt the state. and thereby an endless flow of taxes, regulations and laws. Someone has to pay for the Monarch’s dinner-so why not everyones? A true belief in the efficacy of markets would allow the universal sale of vapes everywhere, to anyone. To oppose that is to admit that the goodness of free markets is not true everywhere, at all times. And a law that is not universal at all times cannot be true, as science shows. (Example: the atomic number of Iron is the same wherever you go in the Universe) So-should a Conservative before or against the free sale of vapes?

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflections_on_the_Revolution_in_France

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/29/rishi-sunak-smoking-ban-liz-truss-vapes-tobacco-sales

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflections_on_the_Revolution_in_France

#vapes #nicotine #cannabis #caffeine #alcohol edmund burke #adam smith #liberty

Newsweek’s startling revelation about Donald Trump

“He’s going to be your President too.” These wise words were spoken to us by a much older cousin concerning the US Elections of 1968. And they have stayed with us ever since. Even if you are British, German, French or Australian, the forthcoming US Presidential election concerns you very closely. Which is why this article by Robert B Reich of Newsweek has caused us considerable disquiet. All the more so, because Newsweek has always been scrupulously neutral in its reporting, if anything leaning right of centre. [1]

It acknowledges just concerns about Biden‘s apparent physical frailty (well covered already), but then tuns to a considerable evidence list that suggests that the 45th President of the United States, and current Republican frontrunner has some substantial questions to answer about his own health, to say the least. Without stealing Robert’s thunder (we ‘ve given you the click) we will make this tiny crib as a taster

“………….In October, Trump warned his supporters that Biden will lead America into World War Two. He has also claimed that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group, is “very smart.” That whales are being killed by windmills.……….

World War Two?-uh, haven’t we sort of had that already? Whales and windmills? You don’t need a PhD in either Zoology or physics to question that one.

Yes, this blog is written in England, by persons who do not hold US citizenship. But we do share the planet with a country which holds a colossal nuclear arsenal, one which could destroy the world many times over if it were activated in a moment of narcissistic rage. We humbly beg our friends over the pond to please, please think very carefully, both now and in November.

_{We thank Mr P Seymo}_{ur for this story}

[1]https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741

[2]https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/opinions/trumps-mental-gaffes-obeidallah/index.html

#Donald J Trump #dementia #alzheimers #paranoia #narcissism #presidential elections

Has Brexit really failed? It’s too early to say

According to one tale, the great Chinese statesman Zhou Enlai was asked “What are the consequences of the French Revolution?” To which he replied “it’s too early to say.” Like many good stories, it’s probably apocryphal; but it illustrates a wise truth. Don’t rush to judgement. In historical terms, the UK decision to quit the EU in 2016 was a seismic event at least as big as the French Revolution, or China’s own Cultural Revolution. Nine years on from the ballot, and three from that final sundering, can we make out anything at all?

Superficially, the case against Brexit appears to be overwhelming. GDP is down by anything between 2-5% each year.[1] Business investment and capital formation have taken a severe hit [2] Life expectancy, that key indicator of a thriving society, has actually started to fall is some areas. As for the much wished-for trade deals with the Leavers’ beloved White Commonwealth, these are either highly disadvantageous the to UK (Australia, New Zealand) or non- existent (Canada). Meanwhile the UK Government rushes to subsidise factories here, there and everywhere, with money which might be better spent on Defence or transport, all in the name of keeping a residual manufacturing presence. Case closed? No. Firstly because the analysis is too simple. Secondly, because we think that humans are not, primarily economic animals.

For starters, the above-quoted statistics are UK-wide. They disguise the fact that certain regions have weathered the Brexit storm better than others. Northern Ireland (membership of Single Market) and London and the South East ( residual proximity to the Continent) are two cases against. As for the life expectancy figures-these are a long term trend, and probably owe their origin to the years after 2010 when Remainers Cameron and Osborne introduced their programme of austerity.

For the second argument: let’s go back to basics. The European Union was founded first as a peace project, and only secondarily as an economic one (it was the failure to grasp this which led to the UK’s disastrous negotiating strategy-but that’s another story). The EU has indeed kept the peace between those ancient enemies Germany and France. But with the rise of Vladimir Putin, the days of peace are over-everywhere. As for prosperity-was it really all it was cracked up to be? More food seems mainly to have led to higher obesity. More money meant more fast cars, more items of throw-away fashion and easily- forgotten holidays. All of these may have to be dispensed with if our economies have to be diverted to defence. So-was Brexit simply an act of foresight, preparing the British people for the hard times that lay ahead? And there is one other factor, which we think is more important still.

When the UK coal miners struck in their bitter dispute of 1984-1985, they firmly declared one thing. It was not about money. It was, they said, about preserving community, belonging and their sense of identity.[3] And these feelings are rooted very deeply in the human psyche. Probably far deeper than a desire for shiny kitchens or luxurious furniture. These are the profound sentiments that Brexit touched upon-and we ignore them at our peril. History has not been kind to those mineworkers and the children, it is true. But it still remains to pass its judgement on the children of the Brexiteers. Let’s wait and see.

[1]https://www.economist.com/britain/2023/01/03/the-impact-of-brexit-in-charts

[2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/apriltojune2021revisedresults

[3]https://www.channel4.com/programmes/miners-strike-1984-the-battle-for-britain/on-demand/73990-001

#UK #EU #brexit #gdp #miners strike #identity #trade

The Startling Truth about early-onset dementia

Of course it’s terrible when a family hears the dread news that Alzheimer’s disease, or dementia, has started to afflict one of their members. But until today, when we spoke with a most educated young woman from Alzheimer’s Research UK, we thought it was a disease of the elderly. We had no idea that it can affect relatively young people, that is to say, in their thirties or forties.

But it can and does, as our links for you make abundantly clear. [1] [2]. We apologise for using UK statistics, but Alzheimers UK estimate that there are 70, 800 cases of one of the various dementias in people who are under 65. You can scale that up or down according to the size of your own country with a simple calculator app (UK population 2024=67.33 million) Meanwhile, we invite you to browse the links, as you will be riding on the frontier of one of the great unresolved research questions of our time.

And what to take away from all this? Firstly, you never know when you will learn something unexpected. Especially when you have access to intelligent people. (If you can’t find any to hand right now, we hope this blog will go some way to ameliorating the deficit) Secondly, keep your brain alive. Puzzles, maths, learning a foreign language or even studying the rules of logic might help. Or at least stave the thing off, for a while [3]. So might keeping fit. And finally-if by some miracle we save the scientific method from the various fanatical culture warriors who are currently afflicting the globe, we might just one day find a method to find that no one ever has to live with it again.

[1]https://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org/dementia-information/types-of-dementia/young-onset-dementia/

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early-onset_Alzheimer%27s_disease

[3]https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/can-physical-or-cognitive-activity-prevent-dementia-202109162595

#Alzheimer’s disease #dementia #Alzheimer’s Research UK #scientific method #neurology #age

Nature Briefings gives us seven technologies to watch this year

article of the week

It’s funny how different people deal with reality. Some seem to think that whatever is right here and now is transcendentally important. They devote every minute they have to finding someone to disagree with, and invest immense amounts of nervous and physical energy pursuing the consequent feuds to the last possible opportunity. Elsewhere, someone else is quietly getting on with new ideas which render everything we do now backward and irrelevant. Who worries now about the quarrels of the Babylonians and the Assyrians, or the ridiculous chariots and spears they used to carry around?

We at LSS, being Whigs or Enlightenments or progressives, or whatever, are very much interested in the “someone elses” mentioned above . And with the help of the inestimable Nature Briefings, we’d like to raise your eyes from the endless disputes around the narcissism of small differences. And let you look at what’s really happening. Changes in the climate, not the weather, if you want to put it that way.

The technologies that Nature will be watching this year include protein design using algorithms similar to those underlying image-generators such as DALL-E, deepfake-detection tools and gene-editing systems that can modify DNA sequences much larger than the single-site edits possible with regular CRISPR–Cas. One advance that didn’t make the cut: ChatGPT. Its applications are “labour-saving gains rather than transformations of the research process”, says the feature.Nature | 15 min read

And imagine a child in 2124 saying to its Dad “what did they do one hundred years ago?” The answer will be in the link above. The endless, futile, indescribably stupid disputes of today will have been forgotten.

#gene editing #AI deep fakes #protein #nature briefings